You might be right, though I am not bearish even for a minute.
and this thing might turn around in a flash, and everything we think is sinking
the stock turns out to be nonsense.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
and this thing might turn around in a flash, and everything we think is sinking
the stock turns out to be nonsense.
This is the image I get when assessing things now.
It is Deja Vu all over again...
Thanks for that. FWIW, anybody who ever had experience with a Fisker Karma would not likely want to hear about a second try. A friend had a Karma so I drove it briefly, as did he. He had the car for several years, mostly parked because it was an ergonomic and performance disaster. It seems to sort of exist now as the Karma Revero. They sell a tiny handful still, it seems:
I discussed Magna Steyr because they are not a parts maker, but a contract manufacturer. Their parent is the huge Canadian parts manufacturer and tier 1 supplier. Magna Steyr itself is based in Austria. They are relevant to Tesla because they do have a growing BEV capacity.
Though Magna Steyr began BEVs with the Jaguar iPace in 2018 they now have two complete BEV platforms:
Electrified Powertrains - for all electric platforms | Magna
Check out Magna's electrified powertrain technologies that offer best-in-class efficiency, safety, driving dynamics and convenience.
Magna also is a supplier for BYD, Chery, Geely, Lucid and Rivian so Fisker probably is depending on pretty much Magna turnkey solutions for powertrain and other manufacturing.
Magna's long history and rapid innovation set them apart from others and make them quite likely to help many OEM transitions. I just listed the BEV customers, but they are suppliers to almost everyone other than Tesla. If Tesla does set up a Canadian GF, Magna will end out supplying something.
As we view Tesla's lack of solid competition we should recognize that Magna can now create competitive BEVs, and are expanding sources and capabilities themselves for the entire powertrain. One thing they know intimately is raw materials sourcing.
With Jaguar, Lucid and Rivian added to the Chinese they are developing new technology after than anyone else other than Tesla. Their Chinese clients include most majors.
Coming soon will be Magna Gigacasting. That has been pending new technology turnkey manufacturing, I have been told.
Stellantis Launches the Fiat 500e to test the US market for EVs…
www.autoblog.com
That’s a fantastic plan, as your EV “Test” use a vehicle with poor sales to start with. Then when you unappealing, poorly priced trial car fails to gain any sales at all, you can blame the fact that it’s an EV. /s
Fiat 500e will be Stellantis' EV test run in the U.S.
In a roundtable, Fiat Brand CEO Olivier François shared plans for the Fiat 500e and the automaker. The U.S. launch will be a test run for EV sales.
www.autoblog.com
That’s a fantastic plan, as your EV “Test” use a vehicle with poor sales to start with. Then when you unappealing, poorly priced trial car fails to gain any sales at all, you can blame the fact that it’s an EV. /s
Maybe their source just said that 30 hand-built "trucks" would be delivered in December, and they assumed they were talking about Cybertrucks. But it is more likely that Tesla will deliver 30 hand-built Semi trucks in December.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
People keep saying the current prices are buying opportunities.
Stretch2727
Engineer and Car Nut
Usually the last of the design validation builds are hand built in the final assembly plant by the team that will eventually build them. It allows them to sort out the details of the final process for assembly.
"It's trench warfare out there, pal." - Gordon Gekko. I am trying to decide if I want to be greedy in Gekko fashion now.
MartinAustin
Active Member
I bought some today at $180.25 and thought I had a deal. Of course it continued lower, but... I feel good about it. I've got about 10% more now than I had in May... I've been buying all the way down.
Despite its fall over the last year, my TSLA stock is worth 14x what it was worth when it fell to the unadjusted $180 in June 2019. The FUD was deafening at that point. "They lose money on every car" "executive departures" competition is coming" "bankruptcy fears" etc. Honestly I am amazed that I held on to it back then!!! Definitely looking forward to 2023, gonna be an amazing year for the company and stock.
Elon will be Elon. I personally back the Twitter acquisition and think he will overhaul it and add value. I believe Tesla is beginning to shake off its direct connection with him... as sales and profits climb and there appear to be no delays cropping up.
This makes sense. So all the parts will be stamped out or pressed by the equipment which will do it in final (save the GigaPressed castings, it’s unlikely it will be ready by December since they are only just pouring the foundations). The hand assembly will just be joining completed pieces together.
Tegtmeyer posted some footage of the Casting area at Giga Texas with some huge new foundations being prepped. Very likely for the 9k Ton GigaPress for the Cybertruck. They usually want the concrete to cure for several weeks before heavy equipment installation. Perhaps we’ll see a press here in mid-December.
I know there have been a lot of rumors about this beast, but this is much more… tactile than shipping manifests and it’s consistent with IDRA shipping the press a couple weeks ago.
I know there have been a lot of rumors about this beast, but this is much more… tactile than shipping manifests and it’s consistent with IDRA shipping the press a couple weeks ago.
They are correct. But there are no guarantees.
Do you spend down your emergency fund to try and take advantage of buying opportunities? Personal appetites for risk aside, don’t believe this should be a corporate strategy.
20B in this industry is not that much.
Accounting for inflation spending volume was essentially flat.
Order for 50 just filled at $177.50. While i agree that this SP drop is different this time due to everything surrounding Elon, it does not discount the fact that Tesla is going to print more $$ qoq for the next 10 years. Good luck to us all!
Thought experiment for today
1) review this chart
2) Imagine you have no idea of who the CEO of TSLA is.... and know full well MSM reporting is nearly 100% FUD right now .. just for clicks
3) You know TSLA is not a value trap , 50% growth projected, new products on horizon.(semi, CT, FSD)
4) this chart is the signal .. right now we are being inundated by noise (MSM)
5) ask yourself is this the best risk adjusted large cap investment in the market right now
6) look at the "competitions" financial position. (knowing full well they are not really the competition, TSLA only competition is the CEO we are pretending we don't know)
7) after Q4 earnings these financial strength stats for TSLA are likely to improve , while many of these companies on the list will deteriorate
8) I think this is why boomer mama is asking for buyback , stock is disconnected from company execution , rather buyback when stock is "cheap" next 6 weeks " see @StarFoxisDown! vs when stock is " expensive"
9) "Are we not entertained ?"
1) review this chart
2) Imagine you have no idea of who the CEO of TSLA is.... and know full well MSM reporting is nearly 100% FUD right now .. just for clicks
3) You know TSLA is not a value trap , 50% growth projected, new products on horizon.(semi, CT, FSD)
4) this chart is the signal .. right now we are being inundated by noise (MSM)
5) ask yourself is this the best risk adjusted large cap investment in the market right now
6) look at the "competitions" financial position. (knowing full well they are not really the competition, TSLA only competition is the CEO we are pretending we don't know)
7) after Q4 earnings these financial strength stats for TSLA are likely to improve , while many of these companies on the list will deteriorate
8) I think this is why boomer mama is asking for buyback , stock is disconnected from company execution , rather buyback when stock is "cheap" next 6 weeks " see @StarFoxisDown! vs when stock is " expensive"
9) "Are we not entertained ?"
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dhanson865
Well-Known Member
What Changed in Version 1.2
Safety Score version 1.2 features several updates including a new Safety Factor and updates to how your driving behavior is measured and Safety Score calculated. Here are the key changes from version 1 to version 1.2:- Provided a visualization of your trip, as a timeline, to show when specific events that impacted your Safety Score occurred. To protect your privacy, no location data is provided.
- Added Late Night Driving as a new Safety Factor. More time spent driving at night will lead to a lower Safety Score.
- Increased grace period after Autopilot disengages from 3 seconds to 5 seconds.
- Updated hard braking and aggressive turning Safety Factors to count the number of events instead of the duration of events.
- Updated Forward Collision Warning rate Safety Factor to calculate the rate of warnings per 1,000 miles driven while not using Autopilot.
- Updated Safety Score to use the miles-weighted average of the last 30 day’s Safety Scores, ignoring any miles driven on Autopilot.
Safety Score Beta | Tesla Support
The Safety Score Beta is an assessment of your driving behavior based on several metrics called Safety Factors. These are combined to estimate the likelihood that your driving could result in a future collision. We combine your daily Safety Scores (up to 30 days) to calculate the aggregated...
The more I look at other EV manufacturers' stock tickers during the past few days, the more I think this price action is more recession fear-related than Twitter/Elon related. I absolutely think Elon has put an overhang on the stock and made our floor lower than it otherwise would be, but Rivian, Lucid, and (to a lesser extent) BYD's CEOs have not controversially bought out social media platforms last I checked.
Gray Man
∇x E = -∂B(t)/∂t
I'll be there arranging them with you
I agree. Think market is betting that Tesla will be stuck with production it cannot sell. What happens to your growth rate then? Doesn’t exist.
This is a lock for every OEM come a recession. They will have oversupply overhangs and bad losses. Market is incapable of digesting a simultaneous S curve and recession for a car manufacturer.
Not sure I blame them. When was the last time a S curve and recession overlapped in the car industry?
Eh, I could see that scenario happening, but I think the more likely case is what happens with the macro's leading into the next CPI print that a day before the next Fed meeting. It's possible hedge funds use the thanksgiving week to really cause some destruction and then hope that the macro's tank leading into the CPI print.
While I do think the next 6 weeks are open target to push TSLA down, the next CPI could cause the long awaited pivot from the Fed. The most recent CPI/PPI numbers were much better than expected since they were actually down YoY once you factor out shelter and I've been tracking rent/housing pricing in real time in a few of the major markets. I think the drop in housing/rent will finally start to show somewhat on the next print and will have bigger and bigger impacts with each CPI print going forward for at least 6-8 months straight.
So I think TSLA will be targeted nonstop until that CPI print. Tesla would have to provide very concrete delivery numbers for Semi for Q4 as in "We will deliver 100 Semi's by the end of Dec" along with maybe updating how Q4 is going for Wall St to care at all. There's also Nov China sales that will come around the beginning of Dec but as we've all seen many times before, Wall St only cares when those numbers look bad and completely ignore when they're very good.
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