Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nolimits]

Hoping a ton of people leave the cybertruck reservation. I want mine asap. This thanksgiving family roundtable talks will spark Elon/tesla/twitter discussions all over… then boom semi release. Boom possible CT unveil/config page. And finally, a new factory announcement. I don’t know about y’all. December is going to be great.

 

[CHGolferJim]

Hoping a ton of people leave the cybertruck reservation. I want mine asap. This thanksgiving family roundtable talks will spark Elon/tesla/twitter discussions all over… then boom semi release. Boom possible CT unveil/config page. And finally, a new factory announcement. I don’t know about y’all. December is going to be great.

The last thing I want to see when I get my CT is another one driving down the road with a Q/Trump flag, ick.

 

[jw934]

Interesting post from @SpotGamma on Twitter on the market:
"
Equity put/call ratios show no sign of demand for crash protection.
1) There's lots of oscillation in PC volume - likely due to proliferation of short dated volume.
2) Open Int PC shows no put increase. This backs that PC volume is daytrading.
"
(copied chart to below as Twitter on my laptop cuts off the right-most portion)

[Chart slightly edited for my file]

I read this as :
- the put/call ratio rose between March 2021 and Nov 2021 even as the market continue to rise
- the ratio kept going up through the crash that started in 2022 (to increase protection against further crash)
- but has been mostly dropping since Sept after the August peak
- not sure if I should be concerned about the slight uptick in the PC ratio to the very far right.

For reference, 2 year NASDAQ chart below showing the July/August peak:

 

[CHGolferJim]

I see so many Trump trucks it's disgusting. So disgusting that Trucks are ICE companies' best seller and has the highest margins. It is so vomit inducing that many ICE companies are thinking about JUST selling trucks....

What happens if they focus on trucks, and CT takes 50% market share, lol. Guess that’s unlikely, but it will still be a big hit!

 

[Prunesquallor]

Shocked. Shocked, I say.

Sandy Munro analyzes Tesla charging connector: 'lighter, more cost efficient'

Munro and Associates have analyzed the Tesla charging connector/port and found the standard more compact, lighter, and more cost efficient.

www.teslarati.com

 

[ZeApelido]

One month later, I'm making the same poll, please vote!

What will TSLA Share Price be on January 1st, 2023?

Spoiler: Results from one month ago

 

[Sancho]

Hoping a ton of people leave the cybertruck reservation. I want mine asap. This thanksgiving family roundtable talks will spark Elon/tesla/twitter discussions all over… then boom semi release. Boom possible CT unveil/config page. And finally, a new factory announcement. I don’t know about y’all. December is going to be great.

Yes, the Elon conversation at the Thanksgiving dinner table is going to be brutal this year. I plan to laugh along with everyone else. And I plan to keep on laughing when Tesla reports huge profits next year.

 

[dhanson865]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1594149676818657280

has a lot of things I haven't seen before. My favorite screen grab is

 

[winfield100]

One month later, I'm making the same poll, please vote!

What will TSLA Share Price be on January 1st, 2023?

Spoiler: Results from one month ago

View attachment 876421

This is a tough poll
If you look at last 2 years, linear regression line is slightly positive

If you look at last 6 months, the 20day, 50 daySMA, BB, linear regression lines are "kinda" 'not so hot' BUT linear regression is a gentle slope SO personally I'm looking at higher IF Semi is a good news release 'n such so personally headed up, I love the 2 3,500 mile trips in my MYLR that we took 1 week after receiving, no planning, just get in and go (SWFL to DC to Havre de Grace etc) so low mid 200's.
couch cushions are bare, tapped out, but will get a share as it, once again passes thru $420.soixant-neuf to add to my collection of shares bought at that price and $800.85, once we get past the present kerfluffle

 

[JustMe]

I am sipping hopium for a TSLA recovery with potential positives on the horizon

Tesla P&D exceeds lowered expectations

Strong earnings report and positive guidance

Confident in financial position and outlook, Tesla announces stock buyback

Positive Tesla semi delivery start/news

Elon anoints trusted leadership to his other venture and returns his focus to Tesla

His other venture stabilizes, reducing risk of requiring his further TSLA sales

Current social media drama blows over and becomes yesterday’s news

Fed steps back, raises by 50 bips and gives less hawkish guidance

Inflation situation continues better trend

V11 FSD broadly released and pleases customers, analysts, and the press

China relaxes Covid restrictions, easing supply chain issues and boosting economy

If some of these come to pass and no more F$£#! black swans appear for a while we could recover nicely.

I wanted the stock to 10x again, but not this way …. Not this way

 

[Gigapress]

Interesting interview between Lex Fridman and Chamath Palihapitaya. The whole conversation I loved but to keep it on topic I've linked to the section about solar energy, batteries, computing and AI.

Chamath shares with me the expectation that the legacy transmission grid is doomed and local solar + battery microgrids will win.

If you're feeling down or frustrated from TSLA's recent performance I also recommend watching from the beginning and the discussions on wealth and happiness.

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

Yes, the Elon conversation at the Thanksgiving dinner table is going to be brutal this year. I plan to laugh along with everyone else. And I plan to keep on laughing when Tesla reports huge profits next year.

Yup dinner at a fancy french restaurant after the Rugby match in Edinburgh, 8 highly educated and successful friends catching up first time in ages. The EM conversation was quick to come up and the consensus was what the clickbait would suggest. Not the first time I have been in this place, the silly thing is they know my track record, but still mock me as an eternal "early adopter" without any reflection on what that means and has always meant. None have any clue to the scale of ambition and delivery of Tesla and X and how the path is set.

 

[Gigapress]

I am leaving TMC alone for a while to work on writing blog posts.

When we can be grownups and apply the self-discipline to put low-value, circular political and Twitter discussions where they belong then I’ll come back. The signal to noise ratio of this thread has steeply declined in recent weeks due to this behavior and reading it has become less valuable.

 

[BornToFly]

I am sipping hopium for a TSLA recovery with potential positives on the horizon

Tesla P&D exceeds lowered expectations

Strong earnings report and positive guidance

Confident in financial position and outlook, Tesla announces stock buyback

Positive Tesla semi delivery start/news

Elon anoints trusted leadership to his other venture and returns his focus to Tesla

His other venture stabilizes, reducing risk of requiring his further TSLA sales

Current social media drama blows over and becomes yesterday’s news

Fed steps back, raises by 50 bips and gives less hawkish guidance

Inflation situation continues better trend

V11 FSD broadly released and pleases customers, analysts, and the press

China relaxes Covid restrictions, easing supply chain issues and boosting economy

If some of these come to pass and no more F$£#! black swans appear for a while we could recover nicely.

I wanted the stock to 10x again, but not this way …. Not this way

Yes, a lot of positive catalysts to bring the stock back up after it goes below 150....

 

[Krugerrand]

Something I've been wondering for a while now: With $20B in cash, what's the holdup for announcing and building the next gigafactory?
Sure, Berlin and Texas are still ramping. It seems like that's going fine. So shouldn't this capital be used for something useful? Why not move as fast as possible?

You don’t think Tesla is moving as fast as it can already!? Umm, ok.

 

[dhanson865]

Why the disagree on new factory placement? Florida, like Texas would be advantageous from a tax standpoint as well as serving the east coast quite well.

People could utilize the auto train up to NE if Tesla would do a factory delivery option like BMW does.

Florida unlike Texas won't survive long with sea level rise. How many years until a FL factory has to be relocated? How many times would production be halted for Hurricanes/Flooding?

Sure Gainesville, FL is ~170 ft above sea level but it becomes more and more exposed as the coasts on both sides are covered in water.

Why not build in East TN, East KY, or Southern Ohio where you aren't exposed to coastal issues?

 

[ElectricIAC]

Florida unlike Texas won't survive long with sea level rise. How many years until a FL factory has to be relocated? How many times would production be halted for Hurricanes/Flooding?

Why not build in East TN, East KY, or Southern Ohio where you aren't exposed to coastal issues?

View attachment 876446

Never said he has to build it oceanfront and displace beautiful beach homes in the process.

 

[growler23]

Shocked. Shocked, I say.

Sandy Munro analyzes Tesla charging connector: 'lighter, more cost efficient'

Munro and Associates have analyzed the Tesla charging connector/port and found the standard more compact, lighter, and more cost efficient.

www.teslarati.com

This NACS (Tesla as the North American Standard) connector topic has been under-appreciated in my opinion.
I work in a not-for-profit that creates and maintains standards - really giant documents that lay out in precise technical detail the way technology products must be built. (We were/are funded by large mutually-competing companies that realized the need for a common level of tech - a playing field on which to compete. Makes for interesting politics but has worked for a couple decades so far).
To achieve one's own existing tech implementation as The Standard is the goal of all these companies, and the extent (often incomplete) to which they achieve it directly means major market share - along with smaller but nonzero benefits like less engineering/refit/compatibility headaches with whatever other chimeric beast might have become The Standard.
For Tesla to propose their connector as The North American Standard, as they have done, along with evidence of majority adoption and strong technical arguments for its superiority is a major assertion of market dominance - the likes of which we have not seen from a company that lacks a PR department. This could be considered the engineering equivalent of a public media blitz.

TL;DR Tesla is letting their brass balls swing, bright and shiny for all to see, with this proposal. The Big Dog, perhaps muzzled for quite some time, seems to have found a way to Bark.

 

[elasalle]

Thanks!

Also: Tesla Ship Tracker

We are now @ 21 ships in Franco's list

 

[dhanson865]

Never said he has to build it oceanfront and displace beautiful beach homes in the process.

Pretty much the only major city not in the flood zones is Gainesville.

Gainesville, FL is ~170 ft above sea level but it becomes more and more exposed as the coasts on both sides are covered in water.

Even if the factory isn't flooded the majority of the state would be and you'd still be exposed to the winds when a Cat 5 hurricane comes right across the peninsula.