Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

I hope you're right!!

Let’s just say my batting average makes Ty Cobb look like his average came from playing T-ball.

 

[elasalle]

It might be a mistake but we are bailing on our plans for a 155 buy. I posted a month or so ago we would be at 155 in the December timeframe. But I think (speculating) that the bottom will be closer to 70 or 80 bucks in first quarter. We’ll probably regret cancelling the 155 buy but we’ll wait to jump in till the new year. I think until Twitter shows signs of turning around it will be a boat anchor around the neck of Tesla. Yes I know Twitter has nothing to do with Tesla…but it does. Unless the board can find a way to disconnect Elon from Tesla the stock will disconnect from fundamentals and be subject to the whims, tweets and politics of Elon.

Jmho.

it it drops to 70, you gonna be chicken genius squared cheers!!

 

[Discoducky]

We're heading into month 3 of Q4 and wait times now less than a month for both 3 & Y and Troy Teslike predicts a gap of about 80K between Production in China vs. Deliveries. How is everyone dealing with this and the free fall of TSLA?

I'm a long investor but honestly this make me nervous. Not to mention Elon and his antics. I suspect if this continues and we miss on Q4 numbers to around 40% deliveries growth instead of the expected 50% growth, I could see TSLA dropping to low $100... Keep in mind, the SP was right around $900 before it split(just 3 months ago) and look how much its fallen?

FSD being released to wide audience is good but we still have no official date when FSD will reach level 4/5 or get government approval. I think Elon said next year but that could mean another year from now or more..... Who knows? Elon can control when FSD gets released but he can't control the government approval process and timing.

Also wish they would put CyberTruck on fast track and get it out asap.... Realistically I don't think its going to really ship til Q4/2023 and I think Cybertruck is probably the biggest catalyst for a bump in stock price but we probably won't know the effects of cyber truck on SP til mid 2024 at the earliest....

Short term stock price is much more affected by China Covid shutdown fears (look at other Chinese companies share prices) and our very own Powell hiking 0.75 fearing a high CPI number on Dec 13th. I suggest you read several pages of this @Papafox thread, some @Gigapress blogs here, the Troy thread here and report back.

 

[AudubonB]

That is, nonetheless, very good advice. Despite the huge drop in share price I still am in an arena for which capital gains would seriously outweigh alternative choices. One benefit of HODL is ignoring the lows because the highs will also come. Were the fundamentals of TSLA not so compelling I would have a different story.

All of us should calmly review the future prospects of TSLA. If anyone thinks the prospects are bleak, liquidate or short the stock, or both. If thinking the prospects are positive HODL. As nearly all of us know by now, leveraged 'investing' or otherwise 'investing' in derivatives does expose risks greater than are the potential profits. For those who choose to do that, please do not expect commiseration in this thread.

We have many people who are feeling a trifle desperate just now. They are now populating the entire thread with their complaints. This thread is meant to be about investing, not speculation. There are other threads for speculation; please use them.

Here, please keep on the subject. We are in serious risk of using all the goodwill, and have our stellar contributors such as @Gigapress, @The Accountant and others leave. That is pretty much what happened a few years ago, too.

I've been though this since 2012 in one guise or another. Many of us have done that.
For every one who's happy polluting the forum with nonsense just keep in mind that those who actually provide content are leaving now. Is that what you want? If so keep it up.

Scatology, idiotic quotations, photos of pulchritude, all that fits well with Tinder. Keep it gone here. All the irrelevant commentary about unrelated subjects should be placed on different sites, not this one.

Then last week has had nearly no useful content. Everyone serious has limits.
Even the original creator of this thread has limits.

I recommend any of the other public sites, content free as policy. You'll be happier there.

The rest of us want to discuss TSLA and maybe a bit of SpaceX.

Good Monday morn, all.

1. As the more percipient* amongst you likely by now have realized, in this game of team tag I am unk’s evil twin brother. I use the hammer, he the soft touch.
*Yes. No typo.

2. In my many decades of investing, I have been throttled and spit out more times than typing on an iPhone can relate. So in briefest fashion: More recessions, more corporate frauds, more bear markets, more black,black, black swans.
What is different this time is that never have I experienced a situation wherein we simultaneously have a company whose fundamentals are so thoroughly glorious - from sales to growth to earnings to debt ratio to depth of bench - 100% across the board magnificent!…..

…and a stock so abjectly unresponsive to same.

I truly am perplexed. SOME splendid companies have been tainted by a CEO disliked by Wall St - I point no fingers here - but I have to consider that the much-changed environment of *communications* likely is what makes things Different This Time.

Now signing off again, to enjoy the rest of my holiday.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

It might be a mistake but we are bailing on our plans for a 155 buy. I posted a month or so ago we would be at 155 in the December timeframe. But I think (speculating) that the bottom will be closer to 70 or 80 bucks in first quarter. We’ll probably regret cancelling the 155 buy but we’ll wait to jump in till the new year. I think until Twitter shows signs of turning around it will be a boat anchor around the neck of Tesla. Yes I know Twitter has nothing to do with Tesla…but it does. Unless the board can find a way to disconnect Elon from Tesla the stock will disconnect from fundamentals and be subject to the whims, tweets and politics of Elon.

Jmho.

If you think that, then you're an idiot if you don't sell all of your TSLA right now.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I think what needs to happen for TSLA to go back up is what Disney just did, by replacing Bob with the former Bob....now i think it should be Wario replacing Elon

 

[tslalala]

Gee, exactly three times the amount of short selling.

It's almost like there was a 3:1 split between 8/15 and 8/31....


EDIT: Dangit @Knightshade !!!!

That table claims to show split-adjusted numbers, like stock price and total "Dollar Volume Sold Short". It's possible there are some problems with that website's data. I'll try to find some other website data to help validate.

 

[carterm2]

the fact that FSD 11 will get released (next month) just as $TSLA is reaching multiyear all time lows keeps me thinking ...

is this what the perfume was all about? EM sure is awfully smug lately.

 

[elasalle]

Uh... you realize there was a 3:1 share split exactly during the time of your dates showing ~20 mil shares short changing to ~60 mil....right?

But what about Dollar volume sold short? Shouldn't it be isolated from the split?

 

[generalenthu]

For sure much higher volume today. I see index ETFs and aapl trading at 65 to 85% of Fridays volume and we're at 120%. Certainly someone is liquidating. Doubt it's Elon though. At some point he should stop selling as we get closer to Qtr end, but I think we're a bit away from it.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Here's some hard evidence for why TSLA has diverged from SPX and rest of the market since August: we're getting the sugar shorted out of us like 10 years ago. In the below screenshot (from here), as of 8/31/2022, shorted shares increased over 300%, from ~20.1 million to ~60.8 million and have continued to increase. (The latest 11/15 period is missing, but it's probably more than 10/31's 76.8 million).

View attachment 876832

Big institutions are shorting TSLA incredibly hard again and are only increasing those short positions, so buckle up, folks.

Back then, did a short squeeze follow some sort of a launch in product or sales? I do see all this current shorting as a possible setup for a squeeze on good news. I can't count on this, but I do think it's possible.

 

[Nocturnal]

the fact that FSD 11 will get released (next month) just as $TSLA is reaching multiyear all time lows keeps me thinking ...

is this what the perfume was all about? EM sure is awfully smug lately.

I haven't seen anyone say that V11 is more than just iteration of beta 69.3 etc. I'd love to believe it but we don't have any more magical wild cards that will save us. It will be a slow slog back to ATHs with the slowness depending on the macro over the next 2 years.

FSD, Buffet buying, Semi launch, CT details won't help much more than the 12/9 conspiracy did.

 

[mongo]

That table claims to show split-adjusted numbers, like stock price and total "Dollar Volume Sold Short". It's possible there are some problems with that website's data. I'll try to find some other website data to help validate.

That site appears to have screwed up.
They spilt adjusted stock price but not share count.
Tesla Stock (NASDAQ:TSLA), Short Interest Report

 

[gabeincal]

Back then, did a short squeeze follow some sort of a launch in product or sales? I do see all this current shorting as a possible setup for a squeeze on good news. I can't count on this, but I do think it's possible.

Wasn't it the surprise split announcement that started our epic ride?

 

[elasalle]

Seems like both Elon and MM's are both giving TSLA board every opportunity to take some action. But board is

 

[dm28997]

It's possible that there could be a takeover attempt. But I think the board must be aware of this. This might make shorting at a loss a potential strategy.
Hodl is my strategy because the company ownership is very important

 

[Nocturnal]

Back then, did a short squeeze follow some sort of a launch in product or sales? I do see all this current shorting as a possible setup for a squeeze on good news. I can't count on this, but I do think it's possible.

Short shorts were sold on July 5th, after the burning started.

Alienating half the adult in the U.S due to Musk's antics is most likely impossible.

~40% are independent while the other two parties are 30/30. I can't imagine everyone who are in the democratic party are offended and anti-musk either, so take what you will but it's definitely not 50% being alienated.

Not for lack of trying!

 

[2daMoon]

It's possible that there could be a takeover attempt. But I think the board must be aware of this. This might make shorting at a loss a potential strategy.
Hodl is my strategy because the company ownership is very important

Uncle Leo?

jk

 

[Xd85]

Uncle Leo?

plz explain

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

It's possible that there could be a takeover attempt. But I think the board must be aware of this. This might make shorting at a loss a potential strategy.
Hodl is my strategy because the company ownership is very important

Lol now we're on takeover attempts?

What in the world has this board come to.........Please name one company out there that could afford to buy Tesla