Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[NooB_cat]

I approve of the price action so far today.

- That is all -

#positivity

 

[Max Plaid]

Same, I take out the margin call frustrations on my weights. This morning while watching Dirty Tesla's zero intervention drive I nearly fell over; did too many sumo squats with a heavy bar. TMI?

Also, in other news, I did a short-ish 3.1 drive and...drum roll...did 3 of my two-lane roundabouts without issue. First time this has happened, my jaw was on the floor. I'll do it again tomorrow with traffic this time and see if this was just a dream.

Show us your rig, dude!

I'm just setting up a home gym right now, finally have the space to do it...

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Ladies and Gentlemen,

The new Tesla killer has been announced and its the..............

SONY HONDA Vision-S, comes complete with a PS5 (maybe)

Sony and Honda might stick a PS5 in their upcoming autonomous electric car

The leaders are taking on Tesla, at least in the fun category.

www.theverge.com

 

[unk45]

Recall, only Nixon can go to China. S. Korea already makes some good EVs (Ioniq, Kona), and lots of hi-spec LG Li-on batts. So for the same reason that Tesla will never make their own cell phone, Tesla doesn't need to fix Korea.

So where else? Osaka's ripe. Mazda plans to start building hybrids by 2027? FFS. Toyota? Bullet Train Wreck. Ad nauseum. Tesla needs to fix Japan. Jus' saying.

Fix Aus too while they're in the neighborhood (okay, hemisphere). Not with a vehicle plant, but a Megafactory to bury coal once and for all (and stay buried). AGI deal with MCB will be pivotal. Aus is ripe for disruption. Tesla is the rupter.

Mexico? Yes, because it makes sense, as does Quebec (if only for the maple sirop)

Brazil? Something has to give. India? Needs a revolution, but that's not our way.

Europe? 2nd factory in Berlin for Model Zei, needs a Megafactory for TE somewhere there too. Russia/Ukraine? Biggest opportunity of the 21st century, if we survive the war (need to convert grid to renewables + bty storage while rebuilding damage).

What have I missed? Robots & the decoupling of the size of the Economy from the available labor force and it's cost curve. That's gonna leave a mark.

Cheers to the Longs!

Now all we need to do is wait until the next steps happen. Within the next few years probably we'll see major facilities in most of those areas plus some we don't think of. We already know there is the expectation of raw materials sourcing innovation, and use of those close to the source is an excellent way to reduce cost and supply chain interruption.

Since Henry Ford and Fordlandia innovative people have tried supply chain integration. Only Elon's companies have been really successful. Lest we forget it Elon has said many times that he built rockets only after no supplier would sell him suitable rockets. He began vertical integration at Tesla only because high quality suppliers would not sell to Tesla.

Now it really seems that the next intractable thing is raw materials. Tesla needs to have 'impossible' solutions there, too. There have been a number of serious negotiations around the world, but it's been almost two years since the last real surprise.

 

[CLK350]

An analysis of Tesla by @SteadyCompound on Twitter

Snippet:

“
For our projection, I’m going to assume Tesla falls short of Elon’s lofty goal and deliver 15 million vehicles in 2030 (still an audacious number). With an average price per vehicle of $50,000, revenue will come up to be a whopping $750 billion.

Assuming its operating margins hold at 17%, EBIT will come up to $127.5 billion ($750b x 0.17). If the company trades at a 15x EBIT multiple, its market cap will come up to $1.9 trillion.

Given its current market of $564 billion, a market cap of $1.9 trillion in 2030 represents a CAGR of 16.4%.

This doesn’t accounts for the value that Tesla could bring from:

• Autonomous driving, which brings an autonomous taxi network
• Optimus, Tesla’s general purpose robotic humanoid
• Energy generation and storage business
• Dojo, Tesla’s custom supercomputer
• Tesla Semi, its electric truck
• Insurance

”

https://twitter.com/x/status/1595040108469682177

Deep-dive on $TSLA open for all for the next 72 hours. WARNING: Research isn't for people who can't think or reason. I'm neither a Tesla fanboy nor a Tesla hater. I'm simply someone who loves studying business.

Okay, nothing new for long time TMC'ers, still nice to hear from a non Tesla Bull

BUT does anybody know how he handled this year's market meltdown ?

 

[StealthP3D]

I did not know that about Fitch; I’m happy to take your word for it. That being the case, your assertion that 2 ratings are needed is even more suspect, in that it means an investment management firm is hamstringing itself by demanding such a gloves & suspenders set of criteria. It MIGHT exist, but would be crafted , in my belief, solely for the most risk averse clientele - a minuscule set.

On the contrary, the entire financial industry is built around the well-known fact that most people are incredibly risk adverse. Mutual funds, extreme diversification, bond ratings, financial advisors, the FDIC, everything in the industry, is built around the well-known fact that people are afraid to lose their money. This is why FUD is so effective at transferring the productive wealth from main street to people in suits and ties on Wall Street.

 

[Xd85]

per CNBS:

Citigroup faulted by U.S. banking regulators for poor data management in ‘living will’ review​

this is the same citi coming in with the upgrade?

 

[wtlloyd]

New poll:

Poll: Twitter overhang

There is no overhang.
No person or entity holding shares substantial enough to affect price upon dumping their position is credibly likely to make such a rash move, weighed against their deeply considered rationale for investing in the first place.
Anyone who would dump this stock at this low is a dilettante with a dismal future ahead of them.

 

[30seconds]

Recall, only Nixon can go to China. S. Korea already makes some good EVs (Ioniq, Kona), and lots of hi-spec LG Li-on batts. So for the same reason that Tesla will never make their own cell phone, Tesla doesn't need to fix Korea.

So where else? Osaka's ripe. Mazda plans to start building hybrids by 2027? FFS. Toyota? Bullet Train Wreck. Ad nauseum. Tesla needs to fix Japan. Jus' saying.

Fix Aus too while they're in the neighborhood (okay, hemisphere). Not with a vehicle plant, but a Megafactory to bury coal once and for all (and stay buried). AGI deal with MCB will be pivotal. Aus is ripe for disruption. Tesla is the rupter.

Mexico? Yes, because it makes sense, as does Quebec (if only for the maple syrup)

Brazil? Something has to give first. India? Needs a revolution, but that's not our way.

Europe? 2nd factory in Berlin for Model Zwei, needs a Megafactory for TE somewhere there too. Russia/Ukraine? Biggest opportunity of the 21st century, if we survive the war (need to convert grid to renewables + bty storage while rebuilding damage).

What have I missed? Robots & the decoupling of the size of the Economy from the available labor force and it's cost curve. That's gonna leave a mark.

Cheers to the Longs!

Europe can't be served by a single GF, especially when Tesla launches the robotaxi / smaller vehicle platform. Poland maybe.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Europe can't be served by a single GF, especially when Tesla launches the robotaxi / smaller vehicle platform. Poland maybe.

Berlin nominally has 4 phases with 500K in Phase 1 (Model Y plant). Elon just told us the next generation smaller car will cost half as much to build, and use half the resources. So, that'd be 1M cars in Phase 2. I assume Phase 3 & 4 will provide commercial trucks + tradesman vans/buses. So maybe 1.5M there?

So I think Tesla can build (and sell) more than 3M vehicles per year out of Berlin, once fully built out to Phase 4. And there's plenty more cardboard forest in the area, if they need more.

TL;dr Elon told us years ago the future was fewer, larger factories because that is the best way to employ their most scarce resource: Engineering talent. But I do think they'll need a European Robotics factory

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Okay, nothing new for long time TMC'ers, still nice to hear from a non Tesla Bull

BUT does anybody know how he handled this year's market meltdown ?

only a 3.5x from here? What a Bear!

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I'll skip the long history...Korea has Hyundai, that is nearly everything automotive, since they bought the flailing Kia and transformed it.
There are only two relevant foreign participants:
First: Samsung decided to try and ended out doing CKD Nissan models (cars and trucks), five years later they had a new 'mark' when Renault took over Nissan and Carlos Ghosn decided he could do better. That has worked out poorly too, so the present incarnation makes Renault CKD rather than Nissan.

Second: GM bought the failing Daewoo in 2002 and ended out exporting designs globally, the most success has been the Brazilian taxi market, which they dominate. As GM Europe died, and global RHD markets exited the GM Korea has fallen in hard times too.

Bluntly, no foreign automaker has been successful in Korea.
Note 1: 'outside advisors' begged Ghosn and co not to touch Samsung Motors. They thought they knew better. Said 'advisors' departed.
Note 2: GM Korea was an unprecedented case and was very successful until GM pretty much exited Europe and RHD, thus destroying the GM Korea very successful design and export businesses. The only remaining major GM owned global business is in Brazil, where GM Korea supplied all the major models and exported lots of parts too.

In my opinion it would be insane for Tesla to build anything in Korea.
Of course they can, and do, buy products from LG, Samsung and Hyundai and that business will probably grow successfully. Of course the Hyundai is primarily Glovis, successfully for both.

Finally, I admit my own experience there informs my conclusions. OTOH, I strongly recommend Samsung's Shilla Hotel Seoul and their amazing La Yeon restaurant. Over decades it has only become even better.

Just do not ever make a foreign direct investment; suppliers, absolutely, with very careful contracts.

Also worth noting that South Korea has one of the lowest birth rates in the world. It's a place to go when you can automate everything, otherwise the labor market will get tight.

 

[MarketsRFun]

We're officially a meme stock again.

I'm a little embarrassed that I spent the first few years investing thinking that it was a good idea to consider the efficient market hypothesis at least mostly correct.

 

[elasalle]

170: rock as 180 : paper

 

[Mengy]

We're officially a meme stock again.

What reason do you have for saying that? A current PE of 55 and a forward PE of 30 for a company growing at 50% YoY hardly constitutes a "meme stock"?

 

[Drumheller]

When $500?

 

[ThisStockGood]

When $500?

June 2023 and that is guaranteed*

* not guaranteed

 

[WattsHappening]

What's most encouraging to me in today's trading is the volume. On a day when traders are mostly thinking of turkey and football, TSLA volume is much higher than I would expect.

Cautiously (very cautiously) optimistic we could have seen the bottom.

 

[SmokyPeat]

When $500?

June 2023 and that is guaranteed*

* not guaranteed

Feb 3, '24. But June next year would be fine too.

 

[ZsoZso]

When $500?

June 2023 and that is guaranteed*

* not guaranteed

You think TSLA will do a reverse split ?