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Eh, I wouldn't worry about such Osborning. Traditional auto comes out with predictable refreshes all the time - they still managed to sell cars. At worse, the existing Model 3 will be discounted a bit.
It's almost anti-osborning because the article talks about cost cutting. So better buy the Tesla now before they strip away even more things while not dropping the price.
 
My 2 cents...With the AI day architecture, they'll either get there within about 6 to 9 months, or hit yet another local maxima and have to re-architect. Why? They have all the pieces, but each has tolerances, when you stack those, it ends up making mistakes. Each team is trying to start the march of 9's and they think they are now walking that path, that is why they've increased the beta. That is the only way to get the remaining 'edge case' data needed (one great training clip is worth thousands of bad clips)
The issue that I don’t understand is that I can produce several clips myself from my local drives, but I no longer have the “button” to do so, nor has it resulted in fixes from past pressing….I just don’t understand how Tesla is either not getting these edge cases, or why they removed the button.
 
The issue that I don’t understand is that I can produce several clips myself from my local drives, but I no longer have the “button” to do so, nor has it resulted in fixes from past pressing….I just don’t understand how Tesla is either not getting these edge cases, or why they removed the button.
Thought for second there you were from Az. 🤷‍♂️
 
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More FUD…
I won't link it, but these articles infuriate me for some reason....

Why GM dealers are quietly repairing Teslas

Some quotes :
For some Tesla owners, getting to a nearby Buick dealership is a lot easier than working through Tesla’s complex repair network.

Owners have complained that it’s hard to get an appointment at many, and repair prices can be high.

For some Tesla owners, getting to a nearby Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, or GMC dealership would be far simpler than working through Tesla’s complex repair network.

Automakers know their competitor’s products

Most GM dealerships now have service technicians certified to work on electric cars, with its own growing electric lineup to service.

And most automakers know their competitors’ products intimately. They buy competitors’ vehicles for benchmark testing and study.

There’s even an engineering company that buys most cars, dismantles them down to individual fasteners, and sells that information to the competition. Tesla knows exactly how Subaru FUJHY attaches carpet in a trunk. Subaru knows how Honda’s HMC rev-matching transmissions signal when to shift.

And, presumably, GM knows how Tesla arranges its battery cells for cooling and can reassemble them.


I quit reading at this point. I personally can't fathom taking my Tesla to a GM dealership.
 
More FUD…
I won't link it, but these articles infuriate me for some reason....

Why GM dealers are quietly repairing Teslas

Some quotes :
For some Tesla owners, getting to a nearby Buick dealership is a lot easier than working through Tesla’s complex repair network.

Owners have complained that it’s hard to get an appointment at many, and repair prices can be high.

For some Tesla owners, getting to a nearby Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, or GMC dealership would be far simpler than working through Tesla’s complex repair network.

Automakers know their competitor’s products

Most GM dealerships now have service technicians certified to work on electric cars, with its own growing electric lineup to service.

And most automakers know their competitors’ products intimately. They buy competitors’ vehicles for benchmark testing and study.

There’s even an engineering company that buys most cars, dismantles them down to individual fasteners, and sells that information to the competition. Tesla knows exactly how Subaru FUJHY attaches carpet in a trunk. Subaru knows how Honda’s HMC rev-matching transmissions signal when to shift.

And, presumably, GM knows how Tesla arranges its battery cells for cooling and can reassemble them.


I quit reading at this point. I personally can't fathom taking my Tesla to a GM dealership.
Yeah right, best way to void a Tesla powertrain warranty is to bring it to a Buick dealership. But if this is about fixing a flat tire then why is this even an article?
 
Is this new and/or part of Dojo coming online?

Previously the process was described as collecting clips of interest by writing a "trigger" to grab a clip meeting specific criteria. I believe determining the scenerios of interest (i.e. disengaging when entering a round-about, etc..._) was a manual process (possibly augmented by some auto-categorization tools), I believe building the trigger was also something a human did.

Are those processes now AI driven as they move towards auto-labelling capability?
Yeah, in preparation for Dojo, as they'll be able to iterate much much faster. So, the AI now chooses what it wants as an input on an increasingly smaller iterative scale. This is either fully implemented or they are getting closer to 100%. I think they are doing this for each AI model independently.
I think the picker is broken in Az. 🤷‍♂️ Runs the same stop sign, weaves the same down wide roads with tar lines, doesn't stop at the right place for turns and basically still freaks me out as it comes as close as possible to parked cars. But that's fine, I'm used to it now. It's one way to resolve issues I guess... just see what happens and work through the pareto chart.

I'm sorry, I thought it was rag on Tesla Monday. Wait, I haven't shared about my Tesla service lately. That last FSD upgrade on an older Model 3 cause about a dozen system malfunctions. The first that popped up was Brake Failure, so it automatically placed steering as the service request and then sent me a quote for $2,709.73. They asked if I could drive it in, no mobile for me I guess. This is ongoing, they insist on repair, won't respond to my notes requesting a human. This is nuts! I refuse to take it in and will likely cause a fuss until a human can actually speak to me... stay tuned (or not). I think they offered to tow it but want me to accept charges on the repair. Not happening.

Oh, and did I tell you the outcome of my solar that Tesla broke? Ya, 3 months of reduced service and ignored emails, they finally came out to fix their mistake... and it was a cable not connected from their last trip on my roof to solve nothing. Ya, not impressed. The service guy wasn't either, "lots of problems,, no staff..."

We can chalk it up to progress and growing pains - I guess for the mission.
Yeah, while the AI can pick what it wants as inputs, the humans are still perfecting the AI models. Every AI model converges as some point and you don't know why it isn't doing what you want without explainability (we don't have insight into this but that is how you determine local maxima).
The issue that I don’t understand is that I can produce several clips myself from my local drives, but I no longer have the “button” to do so, nor has it resulted in fixes from past pressing….I just don’t understand how Tesla is either not getting these edge cases, or why they removed the button.
They are not at the point yet where one intervention can be fixed on the very next try and every subsequent try (but this is the march of 9's). If they did, it would be a form of "one-shot learning" which I'm a proponent of.
 
Enough with the Bill Gatez B.S.

It's OT and you're running with it. 7 replies now adding 0 value to this thread.

Stop it.

sc.TSLA.10-DayChart.2022-11-28.11-50.png


EDIT to add:

Which is it? Do you not know you're contributing to the loss of valuable members of this forum with these OT free-for-alls that solve-nothing, add-nothing, or do you think you're special so it's okay to post OT during the trading day?

FAQ.
 
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Yeah, while the AI can pick what it wants as inputs, the humans are still perfecting the AI models. Every AI model converges as some point and you don't know why it isn't doing what you want without explainability (we don't have insight into this but that is how you determine local maxima).

FSD scenario picker is important. I too wonder how "edge cases" are picked, and how does any system know what it doesn't know? I have a rough idea of how videos are queried, but who's doing the asking now? Is that the part that converges as if to self resolve?

I'm no AI engineer, but anyone understands if a child burns his finger without pain, learning cannot occur. Disengagements or wrecks are only part of the picture. Lol, Search: "Stop signs that the system missed." Perhaps they saved headcount - but too soon?

Hoping it converges soon, and thanks for the new term "Explainability". I've wondered about that on my own brain at times.
 
So lets all make a guess as to how many Semi's Tesla will sell in Q4?

I think it will be about 95 or so sold before the end of the year, slow ramp and all that. :cool:
Well, they are not hand building 95 a month so it's all about for how long they have been stockpiling them in Nevada.

I'm guessing around 10 made per month now and less than 25 delivered to Pepsico on Dec 1. Tesla probably wants to keep a few for themselves as well.

There won't be any significant volume until they have a regular production line setup which seems unlikely for the next six months or so.
 
Possibly reducing the cost low enough to have more model 3s compliant under the IRA threshold.

This unusually bullish sounding article from Reuters below gives more details. Says the new simplified Model 3 will go into production at the Shanghai Gigafactory in the third quarter of 2023 with a start date for Fremont unclear.
Exclusive: Tesla readies revamped Model 3 with project 'Highland' -sources
So the Model 3 is finally getting Model Y's mega casting. Remember the Model 3 did not go to mega casting.
 
I'm not sure if Gates and Microsoft got blindsided by the internet.

<snip>
Having lived through it, they largely did.

That having been said, for a large company they did an amazingly quick pivot towards it. Much the same with Azure... AWS caught them relatively flat-footed, and they adapted pretty quickly.

All of which to say (and get back sorta on-topic): Gates is not necessarily a technical prophet.... his real skill seems to have been figuring out how to manage the juxtaposition of business and technology in order to promote it. I don't really think of him as having any great insight in to EV's (or renewables, etc...)
 
Yeah, in preparation for Dojo, as they'll be able to iterate much much faster. So, the AI now chooses what it wants as an input on an increasingly smaller iterative scale. This is either fully implemented or they are getting closer to 100%. I think they are doing this for each AI model independently.
Cool, thanks.

Between that, auto-labeling, the speed of Dojo training, and the ever growing fleet to collect from, the increase in the rate of training has potential to be dramatic...
 
geofenced just like Cruise or Waymo I don't see why not.
Then they better geofence it to locations where it never rains or snows!
1669656641515.png

This was taken yesterday in light rain, pretty decent visibility, lane markings perfectly visible.
Yet, FSD was unavailable, because "poor weather detected".
What would it say in a blizzard ???
 
So the Model 3 is finally getting Model Y's mega casting. Remember the Model 3 did not go to mega casting.

I would also like to see something else "next step" with the Model 3. Tesla has long talked about a wiring re-vamp. Moving from the ancient 12V system to something in the 40-48V range. Reducing wiring in the car by something like like 6-10X.

One can hope.
 
I would also like to see something else "next step" with the Model 3. Tesla has long talked about a wiring re-vamp. Moving from the ancient 12V system to something in the 40-48V range. Reducing wiring in the car by something like like 6-10X.

One can hope.
Yes, and switching to lithium for the aux battery. Even that reduces cost and weight. Just 100-200lbs makes a big difference, and further saves in battery for the same range. I think Tesla could build a model 3 like car for $28k (not selling price) in the end.
 
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