Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[scaesare]

In order to try and stay on topic here I posted in a separate thread some interesting points from the Argonne National Labs EV Report as reported on by Ars Technica.

I'm providing the brief mention here because it does make some TAM implications that might affect investing outlook, as well as just be plain interesting to folks.

Back to your regularly scheduled programming...

 

[Mengy]

I don't think you've allowed for the cars in transit at the end of Q3 delivered in Q4 which would add what, 20K to your deliveries number

Hmmm, that's a really great point. And no I had forgotten about the Q3 in transits.

Adding those 22K to my numbers would bring Q4 deliveries up to 454,000, total for 2022 up to 1,363,000, which would be 46% YoY growth over 2021.

Not too far shy of 50%, and this would be much higher than what Troy and James Stephenson have predicted. Interesting.

 

[elasalle]

Hmmm, that's a really great point. And no I had forgotten about the Q3 in transits.

Adding those 22K to my numbers would bring Q4 deliveries up to 454,000, total for 2022 up to 1,363,000, which would be 46% YoY growth over 2021.

Not too far shy of 50%, and this would be much higher than what Troy and James Stephenson have predicted. Interesting.

Troy was ~ 465K production, but premise for low deliveries was due to low China numbers in the beginning. Now China numbers are coming strong, so I think he will be forced to revise his estimates based on latest data points ...

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Lol two days in a row the macro's kneecap the TSLA rally. Makes it so easy for hedgies to keep a lid on this thing.

 

[Singuy]

Lol two days in a row the macro's kneecap the TSLA rally. Makes it so easy for hedgies to keep a lid on this thing.

What's the news that nuked the market?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

What's the news that nuked the market?

Nothing I can see.

But I'm not surprised. I think Wall St is going to use the next week and half to get itself to a net neutral position before the CPI print comes in,. if not a complete 180 into a bullish position. If you remember, Wall St was hedged in a huge way to the downside with a massive amount of Put position across the entire market. The last CPI print really wasn't what Wall St was wanting.

So now it's all about pushing the market down as much as they can while exiting those bearish positions before the CPI print on Dec 9th.

 

[Singuy]

Nothing I can see.

But I'm not surprised. I think Wall St is going to use the next week and half to get itself to a net neutral position before the CPI print comes in,. if not a complete 180 into a bullish position. If you remember, Wall St was hedged in a huge way to the downside with a massive amount of Put position across the entire market. The last CPI print really wasn't what Wall St was wanting.

So now it's all about pushing the market down as much as they can while exiting those bearish positions before the CPI print on Dec 9th.

But don't they need other people to sell in order for them to unwind? So there's constant buy pressure during the unwind which doesn't exactly get people to sell. I think it's best to wait for some disaster of a news to unwind if that's the case. Also we should see very small correction to the downside.

 

[jschwefel]

What's the news that nuked the market?

Sorry, it was me. I just bought TSLA and sold puts.

 

[StealthP3D]

China local deliveries.
The first 2 months of the quarter compared to the first 2 months of prior quarters.

View attachment 879377

Local China deliveries? C'mon now. That's just silly. Everyone knows the China market is saturated and Tesla is having trouble moving their wares. Plus COVID and demonstrations, lockdowns, supplier issues, economic recessions, etc. Please fix your numbers to align with the unfounded rumors and pure FUD that has consumed so much of our energy. This is essentially a baseless attack on everything that is wrong with China demand.

/s

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

But don't they need other people to sell in order for them to unwind? So there's constant buy pressure during the unwind which doesn't exactly get people to sell. I think it's best to wait for some disaster of a news to unwind if that's the case. Also we should see very small correction to the downside.

I mean, there's lots of ways for hedge funds to apply downward pressure for a short period of time. While they may not be able to push the market down materially, the real goal to just cap the market and prevent a breakout.

The worst-case scenario for all of the hedge funds that built up that huge Put position is for the market to rally heading into the CPI print, the CPI print come in way cooler than expectations again, and the Fed pivoting a day later. Talk about being caught with your pants down........would probably mark the end of the bear market at the exact time Wall St placed their maximum bearish bets.

 

[Speedr117]

As I understand it, no, unfortunately.

@The Accountant, I thought they added something special for manufacturers. Also, what's the point of all these tax credits if they can't use them?

 

[Speedr117]

In order to try and stay on topic here I posted in a separate thread some interesting points from the Argonne National Labs EV Report as reported on by Ars Technica.

I'm providing the brief mention here because it does make some TAM implications that might affect investing outlook, as well as just be plain interesting to folks.

Back to your regularly scheduled programming...

Horrible conclusion at the end, but seeing who the author is, it doesn't surprise me.

 

[keydiver]

Tesla Partnership with Buc-ee's (26 New Locations) is a Buc-ees thread. Just a quick note on why you might care.

"They are building largest convenience store in the nation being over 74,000 square feet and hosting more than 120 fueling positions, EV Charging Stations."

This is sure to have Superchargers as it fills a hole in the supercharging network. I've been asking for superchargers at this area since the first supercharger was added to Knoxville years ago.

Spoiler: PICs because it is happening

My wife and I charged my Model S at the Buccee's near Daytona Beach on Saturday. One more reason to stop at Buccee's! That place is CRAZY busy, and I have always thought Buccee's would make a great SC location.

 

[The Accountant]

@The Accountant, I thought they added something special for manufacturers. Also, what's the point of all these tax credits if they can't use them?

From what I understand, companies can use "financial" past net operating losses to offset future taxable income but cannot use "tax" net operating losses to offset taxable income.
Tesla no longer has net operating losses on its financial books (only on their tax books).
For the financial books (10ks & 10Qs) their earnings exceeded their prior losses in Q4 2021, you see that by looking at their Retained Earnings. Earnings went from negative to positive in Q4 2021. Meaning if you add up all Tesla's losses and their positive income since inception, they are at a net positive.
For their tax books, they still have more losses than income because stock options have a higher deduction for the tax return than the financial statements.
Tough topic but that is my understanding of how this all works.

 

[Speedr117]

From what I understand, companies can use "financial" past net operating losses to offset future taxable income but cannot use "tax" net operating losses to offset taxable income.
Tesla no longer has net operating losses on its financial books (only on their tax books).
For the financial books (10ks & 10Qs) their earnings exceeded their prior losses in Q4 2021, you see that by looking at their Retained Earnings. Earnings went from negative to positive in Q4 2021. Meaning if you add up all Tesla's losses and their positive income since inception, they are at a net positive.
For their tax books, they still have more losses than income because stock options have a higher deduction for the tax return than the financial statements.
Tough topic but that is my understanding of how this all works.

View attachment 879471

Thanks @The Accountant! So the tax credits go into the "financial" segment and can be used? I mean, if there's no way to use them because regardless, you're paying 15%, what's the point?

BTW, if you're not 100% sure how it works, you can imagine how the rest of us feel! Thanks for giving us your opinion! You really are a TMC treasure!!!

 

[Mengy]

So now it's all about pushing the market down as much as they can while exiting those bearish positions before the CPI print on Dec 9th.

Yep. I think we'll stay down for two weeks yet due to manipulation, but I do expect the next CPI to be favorable and that will likely result in a bit of a rally into year's end. If the MM's let us rally that is...

 

[Artful Dodger]

Note this isn't very far off what Troy is predicting, and it's very close to what James Stephenson is predicting too.

You seem to misunderstand: James isn't predicting deliveries for Q4 at all, he's simply used Troy's predictions (while recommending his paytreon). This isn't two close predictions, it's one widely mentioned prediction, which does NOT attempt to estimate it's validity. To be clear, several members here have highlighted problems with the methodology.

YMMV.

 

[Todesbuckler]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1597662415482912769

Troy does not expect a price decrease in China for Q4 anymore.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Annnnndddd there goes all of TSLA's relative strength.

Sinking like a stone

 

[wipster]

Annnnndddd there goes all of TSLA's relative strength.

Sinking like a stone

And prolly your fault!!!

/s