insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
I'd like to point out that AAPL market cap was only $76B in 2008, so it was 1/7 the size of TSLA today....
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
ThisStockGood
Still cruising my Model S 70 2015
Hey, that balance lies more towards retail and less toward exports than I expected.
Way higher retail sales than expected. Not sure what to make of it. All logic IF you’re struggling with local demand would be that these numbers are reversed.
The production number should be somewhere out there as well for those that pay for it (Rob will definitely have it on his podcast tomorrow).
Btw these official numbers don’t exactly match up with the weekly numbers that have been coming out. It’s off by about 5-6k
JusRelax
Active Member
I don't think it's been mentioned here, but Emmet Peppers went to the Tesla Semi event and he was prodding around trying to find information about the share buyback (youtube video listed below). It wasn't directly told to him, but he inferred from the answers (and non-answers) he received that Elon is 100% completely fine with the share buyback, as he has stated on Twitter. Thus, as Elon also stated on Twitter, the board is the one that is hesitant to green light the share buyback, but the most interesting thing Emmet inferred from what was said to him was that the reason for the board's hesitancy is because institutional investors are telling the board not to do the share buyback.
If this is true, here are some points I'd like to make:
1. Contrary to the beliefs of many on social media, including here on TMC, the Tesla Board IS actively looking in the best interests of it's shareholders. It just so happens that institutional investors have a much stronger and persuasive voice than retail investors (most likely due to them owning more shares than retail I'm guessing?)
2. Why do institutional investors not want the buyback to happen? There are two possibilities I can think of. The first is that having less cash on hand could be an added risk to the company that institutional investors prefer not to take. The second is that it might be possible that institutional investors are interested in still being able to get shares on the cheap while they're able to.
Note that there are also some other takeaways from the rest of the youtube video related to Cybertruck that I thought were interesting as well, so it's probably worth listening to the whole video. It seems that the Cybertruck project is called 'Project Everest' and Tesla has told it's suppliers to delay 4 months for it's production. This causes Matt to believe that very few cybertrucks will be produced next year, and that Cybertruck production will most begin around Q4.
If this is true, here are some points I'd like to make:
1. Contrary to the beliefs of many on social media, including here on TMC, the Tesla Board IS actively looking in the best interests of it's shareholders. It just so happens that institutional investors have a much stronger and persuasive voice than retail investors (most likely due to them owning more shares than retail I'm guessing?)
2. Why do institutional investors not want the buyback to happen? There are two possibilities I can think of. The first is that having less cash on hand could be an added risk to the company that institutional investors prefer not to take. The second is that it might be possible that institutional investors are interested in still being able to get shares on the cheap while they're able to.
Note that there are also some other takeaways from the rest of the youtube video related to Cybertruck that I thought were interesting as well, so it's probably worth listening to the whole video. It seems that the Cybertruck project is called 'Project Everest' and Tesla has told it's suppliers to delay 4 months for it's production. This causes Matt to believe that very few cybertrucks will be produced next year, and that Cybertruck production will most begin around Q4.
If you do not believe that Tesla is cutting production in December, then why muse about Tesla screwing up their logistics?
For this is not about the company, but about people at Tesla working their b*tts of for us.
From what we have seen so far, delivering hundred thousands of cars around the globe:
I think these people at Tesla have earned themselves a little more faith in their logistical abilities.
This is very good news
China factory already at 1.2m per year rate (sales rather than production I know) and majority still for China market
We should hit 500,000 sales in Q4 across all factories. EOY discounts are probably just to encourage local deliveries as year end approaches so we can have a blow-out Quarter.
We should see $5bn profit just from the 500,000 sales, and maybe even $6bn when factoring in everything else, the FSD revenue recognition plus there are some tax allowances about to expire from the years they made a loss.
So possible $15bn profit for 2022 and annualised forward looking profit of $6bn * 4 = $24bn. Market cap now is $560bn = So P/E for 2022 of 38 with forward P/E of 23 and 2022 PAG of 0.22 with 170% growth in profits in 2022! (PAG of 1 is seen as conservative)
These are Warren Buffett value-like numbers, although he likes to have 5+ years of strong figures before investing
I don't think Elon should Tweet anything, I think Tesla or Tesla IR should be the source of info, Elon can re-Tweet
It would be a very small expense to have a couple of employees tasked with following the daily news and refuting where necessary with facts - it's not just short-term price that's being hammered, but the general sentiment on the stock is very negative along with perception of Tesla as a whole, and both will take time to recover, if they ever do
So what's that inflation adjusted
Todesbuckler
Member
Drop in pre-market likely because of this article by Bloomberg:
Ive been on this site since 2018 and I think this is maybe my 2nd post.
To TrendTrader007's point,
As somebody who bought apple (AAPL) in 1997 and sold the stock in 2004 pre Iphone, and never got back in.
I believe it has 100X since then. It was a mistake I vowed to never make again, if I ever got an opportunity to invest in another generational company.
I purchased TSLA in 2017, and yes at times, it has been difficult to watch the 50% drawdowns, but to repeat the mistake I made with AAPL would have been devastating.
Tesla FUD is frustrating at times, Apple FUD was similar during the time I held the stock and I succumbed and sold my entire position, thinking the ipod was a fad, and 'listening to the competition was coming mantra' from the financial media.
To those who are hurting, hang in there if you can. Tesla has a fantastic future.
SebastienBonny
Member
Drop in pre-market likely because of this article by Bloomberg:
Wholesale numbers are great. Then again the same article from Monday which was denied by Tesla China to tank stock price.
This really isn't fun anymore.
Wholesale numbers are great. Then again the same article from Monday which was denied by Tesla China to tank stock price.
This is getting ridiculous: shorts drop TSLA premarket everyday on low volume and coordinated FUD, no one (including TSLA IR, BoD, etc) will defend TSLA. We’re getting shorted to oblivion here. I may start selling shares if the hemorrhaging doesn’t stop.
That's exactly what the shorts and FUD machines want you to do.
It's fun for institutional wolves who are gobbling up shares from retail sheep who are over-leveraged or don't understand that any dip in China demand doesn't matter much because Giga Shanghai has an order backlog from Europe and Australasia.
The "people familiar with the situation" didn't mention that.
I disagree on selling any shares at these absurdly low prices. That is exactly what the MM's are trying to make happen. We should be buying right now, if I had any spare cash I know I would be.
I do agree on how ridiculous this daily pattern has become though. 99% of the market is up this morning BUT of course TSLA is down sharply. On down days TSLA goes down, and on UP days it still seems to go down most of the time too. It feel's like TSLA is stuck in this basement it can't get out of, a penalty box of sorts.
How low can TSLA go? My hunch is we can go quite a bit lower yet than most of us think it can.
I apologize so much! That was probably my fault. I still had a one month old, dusty and completely forgotten limit order for the purchase at 162,00 EUR (~ 170 USD), which my broker obviously wanted to serve. Got'em
... nice round number now.I hereby credibly assure that I otherwise have no open orders (at ING).
Nolimits
Member
The standard procedure is as soon as you sell all your shares, we will likely double bottom and skyrocket back higher. We are all waiting for your sell order.
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