Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Maarten]

Well this was quite a weekend.
Had to scroll through some 100+ pages of bickering, almost endlessly uttering of disappointment and now even mods start to bicker?

When I started reading this forum it was focused on information, helping, humor and (mostly) respectful disagreement every now and then.
And now, when things have become more difficult, we are falling for FUD and sometimes we are even going at each others throat.
This is such waste of talent, info, humor, etc. these days.

So, please reread what you are about to post and consider carefully should I really hit the "Post reply" button, or is this just something that is important mostly just for me, but not likely interesting (anymore) for someone else, because... etc. Fill it in, not difficult.
It will make this a much better place to be. Better in many, many ways. For all of us.

 

[deerfield]

@Troy look in Boston. Multiple cars listed of same configuration/color.

 

[Troy]

Going into the last 2 weeks of the quarter, what are some factors that would make you revise your estimate to the upside? China Weekly registration number is probably the biggest one?

• Yes, higher-than-expected numbers for weekly China car insurance would help with Q4 deliveries. The next one will be released on Tuesday, 20 Dec.
• More than-expected exports from China between now and the end of December would help with Q4 production but not with Q4 deliveries.
• Ideally close to zero numbers for new inventory in the US would help a little with Q4 deliveries but not Q4 production. However, there is a potential downside risk here. The estimates could drop a lot compared to where they are now.
• If more ships are late than I already accounted for, this would reduce Q4 deliveries but wouldn't affect Q4 production.

I include things that are likely to happen in my estimates before they happen. That includes positive assumptions too. At the end of Q3, I was too optimistic despite some clues. My delivery estimate was too high. Production is easier to estimate because of VIN data but deliveries are more difficult. I can calculate how many cars they could deliver if they pushed hard but that's not the same as how many they will actually deliver. The end-of-quarter push for Q3 was more relaxed than usual.

 

[Troy]

@deerfield, can you add a screenshot or more details (price, zip code, color, model, trim) so we can find the duplicates?

 

[Krugerrand]

I'm sorry, but this doesn't make sense.
Spreading FUD is "freedom of expression" by definition. What you call FUD others call "exposing the truth". People in the world have different values and different information and different political views and different cultures. They look at different data, they even interpret the same data in a different way.
Freedom of expression has always meant that this diversity is here to stay and we should preserve that in a democracy.

I've been involved with Wikipedia for a decade: go check "arab-israeli conflict" in different Wikipedias... they are all different, down to citation, quotes, bibliography. You will have a hundreds serious, documented books for both sides of the conflict. Maybe partisan, but documented nonetheless.

It's insanity to think that NNs can solve this problem alone: NNs are simply algorithms trained on "written data" as sources.
The sources are biased and skewed, by definition. And the sources are all over the place: they were all over the place in a paper world and they are more all over the place on a digital world.
Think MSM, which is a big source for NNs training. Even Twitter Community notes also look at MSM as sources.

How many Reuters FUD articles we have seen in the last years? Reuters is one of the sources of Community Notes, for example.

There's no way you can have both "freedom of expression" and a real "protection from FUD".
I like "community notes", as a tool, but it will create a lot of noise all by itself when the sources will be considered FUD by themselves.

The fact that ‘freedom of expression’ means ‘freedom to lie’, ‘freedom to cause strife’, ‘freedom to cause confusion’ ‘freedom to spew hate’, ‘freedom to create FUD’ etc… for such a vast segment of the population is a prime example of exactly what is wrong with people.

That was never the intent, should never be the intent. Yet here we are. Congratulations to the human species! Never missing an opportunity to make the world just a little worse than the day before.

 

[Mengy]

@Troy look in Boston. Multiple cars listed of same configuration/color.

Yeah I see multiple cars listed of same color + config in the Philly area too.

EDIT: Saw @mongo post, and yeah the duplicates I saw are also sitting in different locations too. I guess the inventory page does not show duplicates for the same locations.

 

[deerfield]

Look under 02026.

 

[deerfield]

 

[mongo]

View attachment 886361
Look under 02026.

If you click them, they are at different locations.
Dedham
Norwell
My error, was looking at the Midnight Silver Ys, not 3s.

 

[JoRoMo]

Just for the records I am happy with 42% YoY growth. Any year. In fact, with 42% average growth from 2021, 2030 will end up at 21 976 106 cars delivered.

 

[deerfield]

If you click them, they are at different locations.
Dedham
Norwell

Not the first 2 I post. Delivery for both is from Peabody.

 

[Krugerrand]

Either all the other companies with PR department are wrong or then Elon is.

Either all the OEMs were wrong about EVs being just glorified golf carts or Elon was wrong.

Either all the media were wrong that Tesla was vaporware, going bankrupt, losing money on every car it made, had a demand problem 156 individual times, had competition coming, had a Tesla Killer, or Elon was wrong.

Either every country on the planet with a space program that said the rocket business can’t/shouldn’t be done by private companies and that rockets can’t ever be reusable were wrong or Elon was wrong.

I can go on if you require more examples. And for those about to say, but Elon is wrong about ‘this’ - you have no idea if he is or not and no way to prove it. But on this side of the fence there is a ginormous pile of proof that the media is and always has been bought and paid for for decades.

 

[Mengy]

Just for the records I am happy with 42% YoY growth. Any year. In fact, with 42% average growth from 2021, 2030 will end up at 21 976 106 cars delivered.

I think that's about where we'll end up at for the year. Something like 460K produced for Q4, 430K delivered, 1.34 million for the year, and a delivery growth of 42%-43% for 2022.

I also think we'll do something like 2.1+ million for 2023 resulting in a growth of 53%+ for next year.

 

[The Accountant]

TESLA ENERGY
We have all been waiting for the Energy segment to take off.
This individual makes a good argument that it will be arriving soon:

 

[Troy]

Thanks, @deerfield. These two appear to be duplicates. When I click on the details, they both show Peabody-North Shore, 210 Andover Street, Peabody, MA 01960. Because this is very rare, my best guess is, when a car is sold, it takes a while for the website to update. There should be duplicates everywhere if they didn't filter them out. It is very hard to find duplicates.

 

[vikings123]

• Yes, higher-than-expected numbers for weekly China car insurance would help with Q4 deliveries. The next one will be released on Tuesday, 20 Dec.
• More than-expected exports from China between now and the end of December would help with Q4 production but not with Q4 deliveries.
• Ideally close to zero numbers for new inventory in the US would help a little with Q4 deliveries but not Q4 production. However, there is a potential downside risk here. The estimates could drop a lot compared to where they are now.
• If more ships are late than I already accounted for, this would reduce Q4 deliveries but wouldn't affect Q4 production.

I include things that are likely to happen in my estimates before they happen. That includes positive assumptions too. At the end of Q3, I was too optimistic despite some clues. My delivery estimate was too high. Production is easier to estimate because of VIN data but deliveries are more difficult. I can calculate how many cars they could deliver if they pushed hard but that's not the same as how many they will actually deliver. The end-of-quarter push for Q3 was more relaxed than usual.

Appreciate the detailed response. My only feedback for you is to mostly focus on data to draw conclusions and while I understand you use data from a lot of sources to refine your estimates as the quarter end nears I have also seen you speculate to a very minor degree.

That perhaps is why some folks in this thread have an issue with your estimates. I’m also a patreon subscriber and enjoy your frequent updates. Cheers.

 

[bkp_duke]

Thanks, @deerfield. These two appear to be duplicates. When I click on the details, they both show Peabody-North Shore, 210 Andover Street, Peabody, MA 01960. Because this is very rare, my best guess is, when a car is sold, it takes a while for the website to update. There should be duplicates everywhere if they didn't filter them out. It is very hard to find duplicates.

No, when a car is sold it is immediately removed from the website. Know this from personal experience within the last month.

 

[Matias]

Either all the OEMs were wrong about EVs being just glorified golf carts or Elon was wrong.

Either all the media were wrong that Tesla was vaporware, going bankrupt, losing money on every car it made, had a demand problem 156 individual times, had competition coming, had a Tesla Killer, or Elon was wrong.

Either every country on the planet with a space program that said the rocket business can’t/shouldn’t be done by private companies and that rockets can’t ever be reusable were wrong or Elon was wrong.

I can go on if you require more examples. And for those about to say, but Elon is wrong about ‘this’ - you have no idea if he is or not and no way to prove it. But on this side of the fence there is a ginormous pile of proof that the media is and always has been bought and paid for for decades.

I really don't see the relevance of your examples regarding the PR department.

 

[Krugerrand]

I really don't see the relevance of your examples regarding the PR department.

 

[Speedr117]

TESLA ENERGY
We have all been waiting for the Energy segment to take off.
This individual makes a good argument that it will be arriving soon:

View attachment 886369

Funny, that $25 billion estimate is on top of the $12 billion estimate for the Semi at 50,000/year. Seems like actually having all the batteries you could want really helps move the business forward!