Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

I'm very much reminded of AAPL in 2009. At some point Apple's PE was in the 8-10 range, trading as if it was an aging US steelmaker about to shut down, as some wag noted. The current TSLA trading is starting to feel like capitulation, when even many long-time bulls throw up their hands and give up. I've been averaging down with new purchases, and am fairly comfortable that a year from now that growth and earnings will lead to a substantial recovery, even if it takes much longer than that to reach all-time highs.

Well Appl was heading toward BK. Their PC products were not selling well as many of them were flops.

Currently there's really nothing that can stop Tesla's growth and margins expect Musk's mouth who likes to predict doomsday scenarios.

Edit: realized that you mean 2009 lol in which the iphone is already out, not a decade before.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Kind of curious from the TA perspective.

Now that we’ve visited every SP from $400 down to $111. Will people be talking about “Filling the gap” anywhere between here and there? What is the expiration on gap fill need?

So... you don't read my feed, or am I blocked? 'cuz I've been talking about the gap to Aug 13, 2020 for weeks now. Even posted charts. Yesterday.

EDIT to Add: @Ogre

So now, honesty time: did you also miss the times when I posted comments by Craig Irwin of Roth Capital Partners when he called TSLA's shareprice "egregious"? How about when he said on CNBC, "So Tesla's a Tech Company? SO WHAT?!" That was way back in July. I reported that here in this thead on July 23, 2022 and have referred to it nearly monthly since then.

No, shortzes and hedge funds have been planning this for month, if not longer. They want their dollar gap back, Filling gaps is the shortzes highest calling, and they'll stop at nothing to get it, including all of the following:

• start a war
• trigger a recession
• attack the labor market
• raise interest rates at an unprecidented rate
• attack the same FUD talking points with trolls aplenty

Here's something else I've said here which often falls on deaf ears (though I may not be the first to say this): "Do not underestimate the power of the dark side".

Egregious!

 

[AudubonB]

It is become rather difficult to post anything in this thread that is insightful and original, as the past 72 +/- hrs of posts demonstrate.

But here is something that is, at least, original. I too have been tearing my hair out trying to decipher what “Burnt Hair” might mean.

What about looking at it as referring to the new CEO? Who is Bernd and might he be the heir?

….at least it passes the “original” metric….

 

[Ogre]

Or that he is tweeting while deflating on the throne.

He did say he was on the Clown Car.

 

[EVWatcher]

Has anyone gamed out as a mental exercise what would happen if teslas market cap got so low that Apple/Google/Microsoft (edit: or the saudis or something of that nature) would try to buy it? I feel like the BoD and shareholders would never go for such a thing but hypothetically, how would that play out? Poison pill like with twitter until the board had to capitulate?

Edit: In that scenario is it wise to have cash reserves for that thing where existing shareholders can buy shares on the cheap to dilute out a hostile buyer?

 

[Ogre]

So... you don't read my feed, or am I blocked? 'cuz I've been talking about the gap to Aug 13, 2020 for weeks now. Even posted charts. Yesterday.

I try to read all of your posts. Work, Holidays, & High Signal to Noise here lately has conspired against me.

I don’t know why I didn’t just Follow a few folks here who‘s input I like to watch more closely a long time ago.

As for blocking… I’d think the reverse would be more likely.

 

[MC3OZ]

China demand concerns persist.

The reason they are concerns is because there is a recent dip in sales, and some suggestion of excess inventory.
But generally Chinese sales numbers for 2022 are good.

I don't think most Chinese buyers have decided the prefer a BYD to a Tesla.
Some have perhaps decided that a cheaper BYD best suits their needs now.

I also don't think many Chinese buyers have decided they prefer a BYD PHEV to an EV.
With PHEV subsides ending, those want a PHEV might be buying now.

EVs subsides were originally supposed to end at the end of this year, and are now apparently continuing in some form into 2023.

I definitely don't think most Chinese buyers have decided that they prefer an ICE to an EV, or that the Chinese government has reversed it's policy on promoting EVs and ending the dependency on imported foreign oil.

Some Chinese people may have decided that the prefer a pure all Chinese EV to a Tesla. Promoting a person of Chinese origin to a senior position in Tesla might help there. Tesla may seem more Chinese than most other foreign owned brands.

There is FUD in the Chinese media about Tesla quality issues, but I have no reason to believe the average Chinese buyer is less happy with their car than the average buyer anywhere else. With a lot of Teslas on the road in China, many people will know someone who owns a Tesla, and will get the true story.

I do think ending the scalping and stockpiling of reservations for profit may have evaporated some "artificial demand" and that that "artificial demand" pocket may have resulted in an over allocation of inventory for the Chinese market.

Do think that cancelling the fake reservations, ending the wave and high volume production may have allowed Tesla to work through genuine reservations fast, removing wait times, and possibly leading to an over allocation of inventory.

We don't know the reason for the factory shutdowns, but workers at Shanghai have worked through many previous holiday periods, with many workers unable to work due to covid, some workers may have done extra shifts.

What we do know is, that when Shanghai is running a wrap speed, it exceeds expectations and can rapidly catch up for any downtime.

We can safely rule out anything Elon is doing with Twitter impacting Chinese demand. Discounts in the US and EU also seem to have generated sufficient demand.

As well as an build up of Chinese inventory, there may be a shortage of ships to take cars overseas. That is likely to be a temporary problem, perhaps there is no quick fix.

We don't know who is selling shares, or why they are selling, or if that selling has anything to do with perceptions around Chinese demand.

While it would be good if Tesla could clarify the situation and ease concerns, there may not be an simple easy to understand quick explanation which everyone believes. Even if Tesla is 100% honest and accurate, they might not be believed.

The alternative is to let the P&D numbers do the talking, and hope that they speak loud enough, Then give full context and a detailed explanation if possible in the earnings call.

If Model 3 Highland is part of the solution in China and elsewhere, that will be well received, but it can not be announced too early, as that may Osborne current Model 3 sales.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Has anyone gamed out as a mental exercise what would happen if teslas market cap got so low that Apple/Google/Microsoft would try to buy it? I feel like the BoD and shareholders would never go for such a thing but hypothetically, how would that play out? Poison pill like with twitter until the board had to capitulate?

Edit: In that scenario is it wise to have cash reserves for that thing where existing shareholders can buy shares on the cheap to dilute out a hostile buyer?

Maybe a conglomerate of oil companies. Buy it up and shut it down. Problem solved. .

 

[Rashomon]

Well Appl was heading toward BK. Their PC products were not selling well as many of them were flops.

Currently there's really nothing that can stop Tesla's growth and margins expect Musk's mouth who likes to predict doomsday scenarios.

Edit: realized that you mean 2009 lol in which the iphone is already out, not a decade before.

Yes, the analyst consensus was that Android and MS's phone operating system would take over from iOS, and that AAPL had no long-term moat to prevent that from happening -- much like the discussion of emerging e-auto competition to TSLA. APPL was trading stupidly cheaply relative to earnings in the late twenty-aughts and early twenty-teens. As TSLA approaches a PE ratio of 27 on 2022 earnings, and perhaps 20 or better on conservatively anticipated 2023 earnings, you could draw parallels.

 

[Ogre]

The reason they are concerns is because there is a recent dip in sales, and some suggestion of excess inventory.
But generally Chinese sales numbers for 2022 are good.

I don't think most Chinese buyers have decided the prefer a BYD to a Tesla.
Some have perhaps decided that a cheaper BYD best suits their needs now.

I also don't think many Chinese buyers have decided they prefer a BYD PHEV to an EV.
With PHEV subsides ending, those want a PHEV might be buying now.

EVs subsides were originally supposed to end at the end of this year, and are now apparently continuing in some form into 2023.

I definitely don't think most Chinese buyers have decided that they prefer an ICE to an EV, or that the Chinese government has reversed it's policy on promoting EVs and ending the dependency on imported foreign oil.

Some Chinese people may have decided that the prefer a pure all Chinese EV to a Tesla. Promoting a person of Chinese origin to a senior position in Tesla might help there. Tesla may seem more Chinese than most other foreign owned brands.

There is FUD in the Chinese media about Tesla quality issues, but I have no reason to believe the average Chinese buyer is less happy with their car than the average buyer anywhere else. With a lot of Teslas on the road in China, many people will know someone who owns a Tesla, and will get the true story.

I do think ending the scalping and stockpiling of reservations for profit may have evaporated some "artificial demand" and that that "artificial demand" pocket may have resulted in an over allocation of inventory for the Chinese market.

Do think that cancelling the fake reservations, ending the wave and high volume production may have allowed Tesla to work through genuine reservations fast, removing wait times, and possibly leading to an over allocation of inventory.

We don't know the reason for the factory shutdowns, but workers at Shanghai have worked through many previous holiday periods, with many workers unable to work due to covid, some workers may have done extra shifts.

What we do know is, that when Shanghai is running a wrap speed, it exceeds expectations and exceeds expectations and can rapidly catch up for any downtime.

We can safely rule out anything Elon is doing with Twitter impacting Chinese demand. Discounts in the US and EU also seem to have generated sufficient demand.

As well as an build up of Chinese inventory, there may be a shortage of ships to take cars overseas. That is likely to be a temporary problem, perhaps there is no quick fix.

We don't know who is selling shares, or why they are selling, or if that selling has anything to do with perceptions around Chinese demand.

While it would be good if Tesla could clarify the situation and ease concerns there may not be an simple easy to understand quick explanation which everyone believes. Even if Tesla is 100% honest and accurate, they might not be believed.

The alternative is to let the P&D numbers do the talking, and hope that they speak loud enough, Then give full context and a detailed explanation if possible in the earnings call.

If Model 3 Highland is part of the solution in China and elsewhere, that will be well received, but it can not be announced too early, as that may Osborne current Model 3 sales.

So first, a small confession. The comment was mostly made to make a joke about the board authorizing a split so there wasn’t a ton of deep thought in my post. I thought that it was obvious but you aren’t the only one who took it seriously so mea culpa

I mostly agree with your thoughts here, but it’s worth pointing out that right now any sign of weakness is going to be amplified 10x. The most recent deliveries in China is a perfect example. The emergency rooms are filling up over there and the media report soft deliveries as if there is no outside context. Perception by the MSM and industry analysts are going to focus on the negatives and amplify them. I suspect there will be enough softness there that they will play that up even if it’s very short term.

If Tesla needs to increase exports a lot, logistics is going to be tricky in Q1 but I suspect they will figure something out or just discount more. Neither is a huge deal.

 

[Ogre]

So... you don't read my feed, or am I blocked? 'cuz I've been talking about the gap to Aug 13, 2020 for weeks now. Even posted charts. Yesterday.

EDIT to Add: @Ogre

So now, honesty time: did you also miss the times when I posted comments by Craig Irwin of Roth Capital Partners when he called TSLA's shareprice "egregious"? How about when he said on CNBC, "So Tesla's a Tech Company? SO WHAT?!" That was way back in July. I reported that here in this thead on July 23, 2022 and have referred to it nearly monthly since then.

No, shortzes and hedge funds have been planning this for month, if not longer. They want their dollar gap back, Filling gaps is the shortzes highest calling, and they'll stop at nothing to get it, including all of the following:

• start a war
• trigger a recession
• attack the labor market
• raise interest rates at an unprecidented rate
• attack the same FUD talking points with trolls aplenty

Here's something else I've said here which often falls on deaf ears (though I may not be the first to say this): "Do not underestimate the power of the dark side".

Egregious!

I did notice some of your comments about gapping “down” which is what set me off on this chain of thought.

 

[Quesder]

Well Appl was heading toward BK. Their PC products were not selling well as many of them were flops.

Currently there's really nothing that can stop Tesla's growth and margins expect Musk's mouth who likes to predict doomsday scenarios.

Edit: realized that you mean 2009 lol in which the iphone is already out, not a decade before.

The problem is that quite a few people are saying that TSLA China demands is dropping, and will not come back or grow again. To them that is a dooming scenario and thus SP should go to 60 or so.

 

[MC3OZ]

Maybe a conglomerate of oil companies. Buy it up and shut it down. Problem solved. .

Hostile Takeover Explained: What It Is, How It Works, and Examples

A hostile takeover is the acquisition of one company by another without approval from the target company's management.

www.investopedia.com

This defense tactic is officially known as a shareholder rights plan. It allows existing shareholders to buy newly issued stock at a discount if one shareholder has bought more than a stipulated percentage of the stock, resulting in a dilution of the ownership interest of the acquiring company. The buyer who triggered the defense, usually the acquiring company, is excluded from the discount.

Tesla has a large pile of cash that could be used to issue dividends allowing shareholders to purchase the the newly issued stock.

It doesn't seem like anyone intending to launch a hostile takeover has been quietly accumulating shares, certainly not enough shares to get a sizable stake in any rights plan.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Interview with Gene Munster on TSLA - have to suffer through Gene's poor cell reception, though.

TL;DW: He thinks deliveries will give some relief to the stock price, but thinks we'll retrace going into Q4 P&D as investors fret about earnings.

I know he's not a fan favorite here, but here's another interview with Ives from today - talking about conversations he's having with institutional investors, the damage Elon's other venture has caused, and where he thinks TSLA becomes a very strong buy / complete panic in the existing shareholder base (~$95-$100).

 

[Ogre]

Hostile Takeover Explained: What It Is, How It Works, and Examples

A hostile takeover is the acquisition of one company by another without approval from the target company's management.

www.investopedia.com

Tesla has a large pile of cash that could be used to issue dividends allowing shareholders to purchase the the newly issued stock.

It doesn't seem like anyone intending to launch a hostile takeover has been quietly accumulating shares, certainly not enough shares to get a sizable stake in any rights plan.

Weirdly, I think the huge short position would sabotage any would-be acquirers.

As they started to buy up and accumulate large sums of shares, likely would trigger a short squeeze. Then the acquirer would be forced to race to pick up shares as quickly as possible as the shorts start racing to cover. Buying just 10% of the company I think would blow up the SP very quickly. Look at what Musk’s sales did and multiple times 2 due to the short squeeze.

Unpossible.

 

[thesmokingman]

Someday this shall prove true... again.

 

[Quesder]

After hour price action is not good. Approaching $107.00, with huge volume. More than 3.17 M as of 5:07 PM.

$107 is broken, now we are at $106.88. My God, we will see below $100 tomorrow.

 

[DennisLevitt]

Has anyone gamed out as a mental exercise what would happen if teslas market cap got so low that Apple/Google/Microsoft (edit: or the saudis or something of that nature) would try to buy it? I feel like the BoD and shareholders would never go for such a thing but hypothetically, how would that play out? Poison pill like with twitter until the board had to capitulate?

Edit: In that scenario is it wise to have cash reserves for that thing where existing shareholders can buy shares on the cheap to dilute out a hostile buyer?

Maybe we'd get a CEO that wasn't setting the house on fire.

 

[Cherry Wine]

$107 is broken, now we are at $106.88. My God, we will see below $100 tomorrow.

Would not surprise me if we see a hammer candle formed on the daily tomorrow. Could be a wild ride.

 

[EVWatcher]

$107 is broken, now we are at $106.88. My God, we will see below $100 tomorrow.

Getting a little nostalgia having a genuine tesla que-sader on the board again.