Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Prunesquallor]

Mach-E owner "I am going to throw this in the trash and go get a Tesla" after waiting in line trying to charge and all the stations are down.

This is a major issue in the U.S and kudos to Kyle who puts in the hard work trying to make the network better by blasting all of these other company's. Good video to watch if you want to learn about how 3rd party networks operate and what people felt the past week owning an EV. It's not pretty and many are going back to gas.

Holy crap! JHC! This is a disaster on an epic scale. "Tesla is the Gold Standard”. Other than that, a complete cluster. I don’t see how the Government approach of throwing money at the problem is going to help. When Tesla opens up their network in the US, it will be absolutely inundated by non-Tesla EVs.

I hope Tesla has found a way to monetize this.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Holy crap! JHC! This is a disaster on an epic scale. "Tesla is the Gold Standard”. Other than that, a complete cluster. I don’t see how the Government approach of throwing money at the problem is going to help. When Tesla opens up their network in the US, it will be absolutely inundated by non-Tesla EVs.

I hope Tesla has found a way to monetize this.

Throwing money at the problem would help a lot if the money went towards crews that can keep the EA chargers working.

Tesla will make money on every car that uses a supercharger. Hopefully that is enough to fund further expansion because they will need it.

 

[Singuy]

Holy crap! JHC! This is a disaster on an epic scale. "Tesla is the Gold Standard”. Other than that, a complete cluster. I don’t see how the Government approach of throwing money at the problem is going to help. When Tesla opens up their network in the US, it will be absolutely inundated by non-Tesla EVs.

I hope Tesla has found a way to monetize this.

If Elon can monetize a bottle of burnt hair perfume at 2x the price of premier luxury brand, he can monetize the charging network. The question is how this rollout will happen. Once it's open I see a flood gate of people going only to Tesla's chargers because even if there's a 10% chance of finding down chargers at EA's station, you would skip it. This will make Tesla a monopoly.

 

[Ogre]

That has always been the case with the tax credit. In the past most companies have passed the credit, or at least most of it, on to the lessor.

It’s a weird unintended knock on effect of the legislation. It’s going to be a lot less expensive to lease then to buy. Much more than currently even.

If Tesla did this with a lease buyout at the end I could see leasing quickly becoming the predominant way of acquiring a Tesla.

 

[Xepa777]

This would be a giant head fake. That would mean the leasing agency would collect the rebate, not the consumer.

This applies to Tesla too though right on their leases?

 

[Singuy]

Throwing money at the problem would help a lot if the money went towards crews that can keep the EA chargers working.

Tesla will make money on every car that uses a supercharger. Hopefully that is enough to fund further expansion because they will need it.

EA actually has a supplier problem. The chargers that they bought had reliability issue in the hot hot summer. So they are ripping out the old chargers for the new ones, which doesn't work in the cold...lol. You can't make this up, it's like a monty python video.

 

[Singuy]

This would be a giant head fake. That would mean the leasing agency would collect the rebate, not the consumer.

Correct, leasing agencies always collected the rebate. This is how a lease for a bolt is 179 or something. Because they factor in the tax rebate into the monthly payments as a discount. This is how people who doesn't qualify for the rebates "qualify" for the rebates.

 

[ElectricIAC]

If Tesla did this with a lease buyout at the end I could see leasing quickly becoming the predominant way of acquiring a Tesla.

Now they have even more reason not to.

 

[phil0909]

This applies to Tesla too though right on their leases?

It would, though in the absence of taxable income, Tesla is unable to benefit from tax credits. Presumably Tesla would work with a (profitable, taxable) leasing company in years when Tesla has no taxable income.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Wow! Look at that F car goo!

Components of the S&P 500 - 8:00 pm,Thu, Dec 29, 2022 - Sorted by %Chg (descending)​

#	Company	Symbol	Weight	Price	Chg	% Chg
16	Tesla Inc	TSLA	0.955014	122.89	10.18	(9.03%)
409	SVB Financial Group	SIVB	0.03955	233.43	16.98	(7.84%)
468	V.F. Corporation	VFC	0.026096	27.44	1.58	(6.11%)
494	Mohawk Industries Inc.	MHK	0.015569	102.05	5.69	(5.90%)
318	Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. Series A	WBD	0.06123	9.39	0.52	(5.86%)
235	Illumina Inc.	ILMN	0.09475	201.56	10.75	(5.63%)
474	Catalent Inc	CTLT	0.024054	45.26	2.32	(5.40%)
165	Ford Motor Company	F	0.136042	11.54	0.59	(5.39%)
477	Carnival Corporation	CCL	0.023471	8.08	0.41	(5.35%)
435	Stanley Black & Decker Inc.	SWK	0.033524	75.91	3.73	(5.17%)
378	Align Technology Inc.	ALGN	0.046147	211.60	10.02	(4.97%)
59	Netflix Inc.	NFLX	0.388974	290.55	13.67	(4.94%)

 

[insaneoctane]

Tesla will have to quickly adjust the US MY offerings. I have a LR AWD 5-seater on order that I previously assumed would qualify for the $7,500 rebate in 2023. I will need a different solution, as I am not interested at the current MSRP without full subsidy. I don't think I'd take the 7-seater (+$3K) just to qualify. I may not (or may?) be a typical buyer...nonetheless, Tesla will have to solve this problem for my business. Guess we'll see if there's really a demand problem real quick!

 

[elasalle]

So are folks gonna be better off taking the 7500 Tesla credit in next 3 days for models that don’t qualify for IRA - demand lever
.. so is inventory gonna sell out?

 

[JRP3]

I've seen a lot of utterly moronic things from government. But calling any Model Y a SUV is a huge stretch (IMO it's a compact crossover-no OHV capability). But saying an extra 2 seats suddenly makes it an SUV? Um...no.

Many auto mags call it an SUV, as does Tesla:
Model Y is a fully electric, mid-size SUV with unparalleled protection and versatile cargo space.

 

[jerry33]

Throwing money at the problem would help a lot if the money went towards crews that can keep the EA chargers working.

My understanding is that EA chargers are a hodgepodge from different suppliers. Throwing money won’t help much because there also needs to be enough trained people to fix them, and available parts.

 

[phil0909]

So are folks gonna be better off taking the 7500 Tesla credit in next 3 days for models that don’t qualify for IRA - demand lever

Apparently not. Not if they can lease in January and collect the credit from taxpayers instead.

 

[Ogre]

Now they have even more reason not to.

Tesla wants to move cars.

If switching to leasing lets them move more vehicles without reducing prices, they absolutely should lease more. Adding in the buyout option would make their leases even more appealing.

 

[WolfHero]

For tax purposes, a stock sale is made on the trade date, not the settlement date. Therefore, 2022 tax loss harvesting can continue through tomorrow.

Stock is considered purchased or sold for tax purposes on its trade date,

Perhaps for USA. However that's not the case in Canada. This is in my TD bank's trading platform:

If you would like to sell a security to realize a capital gain or loss for tax purposes in 2022, the order would need to be filled no later than Wednesday, December 28, 2022 to settle on time.

 

[wipster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1608596979021643779

Quote:
Tesla is expected to release its Q4 2022 global production and delivery numbers on Monday, January 2nd. The numbers were released on the 2nd day of the month for the past 11 quarters. The estimated release time is around 8:55 am Pacific Time.

Production 470k
Delivered 450k

That's my guess and I'm thinking about sticking to it. Where's your comparison chart @The Accountant?

 

[cusetownusa]

Tesla will have to quickly adjust the US MY offerings. I have a LR AWD 5-seater on order that I previously assumed would qualify for the $7,500 rebate in 2023. I will need a different solution, as I am not interested at the current MSRP without full subsidy. I don't think I'd take the 7-seater (+$3K) just to qualify. I may not (or may?) be a typical buyer...nonetheless, Tesla will have to solve this problem for my business. Guess we'll see if there's really a demand problem real quick!

Was thinking the same thing. Not sure if it would be needed but if tesla could drop the price back down to $55k (and still make a healthy profit) they would sell like crazy. That is what I paid for my Y and would pick one up for my wife if that happened.

These arbitrary MSRP amounts are stupid imo. Creates random demand cliffs as a $55k model y could have crazy demand but the same car at $56k would have demand cut back dramatically. Wonder if the could play around with various software locks that could be unlocked after purchase to help keep the car eligible for the tax credit.

 

[Ogre]

Production 470k
Delivered 450k

That's my guess and I'm thinking about sticking to it. Where's your comparison chart @The Accountant?

Ok… I’ll ask you this since I’ve seen others suggest similar gap between deliveries and production.

We ended Q3 with a large inventory because Tesla delivered fewer units than they produced. So I can’t quite connect how people are expecting another delivery shortfall versus production. This would mean Tesla ends the year with absolutely massive inventory from 2 quarters where deliveries didn’t keep up with production.

After Q3, I would think the reverse would be more likely and Deliveries would be higher than Production.

Help me out here, did I dream up the idea that we had a large number of vehicles in transit and inventory at the end of Q3? Are you really expecting Tesla will end the year with 40,000-50,000+ cars in inventory?