Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[betstarship]

On a serious and uplifting note, here's a good NYTimes article on 2022 (in particular solar, batteries mentioned):

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/31/opinion/2022-good-news.html

 

[Nolimits]

In before the lock.

Just had my buddy call in and pick up an inventory X today. White on white. Pumped to check it out tomorrow. Asked him to scope out the scene for me at the dealers. Hoping we sell it all and burn the shorts. Kick off the new year right!

 

[Bet TSLA]

Anybody else read this tweet the way I did?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1608552555822325762

I keep seeing people say that "Enabled anyone in North America who has purchased FSD to request FSD Beta, reaching 285k cars total" means that FSD Beta is now on 285k cars. I don't think so. I think all they're saying is that 285k cars can now get FSD Beta if they want to. They've been "enabled".

If there were really so many actual new users of FSD Beta, we'd be seeing far more traffic about it. And the number of stories about accidents would have at least doubled just from having more vehicles out there. We've seen none of that.

Anyway, anybody know different?

 

[tslalala]

Reuters: "Tesla to Build Landfill Full of Discarded 3rd Row Seats Using Sudanese Child Laborers."

Uh-oh, you've now become Reuters' "source familiar with matter"!

 

[EVWatcher]

Anybody else read this tweet the way I did?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1608552555822325762

I keep seeing people say that "Enabled anyone in North America who has purchased FSD to request FSD Beta, reaching 285k cars total" means that FSD Beta is now on 285k cars. I don't think so. I think all they're saying is that 285k cars can now get FSD Beta if they want to. They've been "enabled".

If there were really so many actual new users of FSD Beta, we'd be seeing far more traffic about it. And the number of stories about accidents would have at least doubled just from having more vehicles out there. We've seen none of that.

Anyway, anybody know different?

I may be misunderstanding your question but as teslascope described it FSD beta is now on every car that is up to date regardless of whether or not they have purchased/activated/requested it.

Obviously if you didn’t pay for it or if you didn’t go to settings and enable it you don’t have it. I think 285k refers to the number of cars in North America - where regulatory approval has passed - have received delivery of FSD - in the sense of feature complete as defined by tesla, allowing 285k FSD payments to be recognized in Q4 (edit: I mistakenly wrote Q1)

I could be very wrong though.

But doesn’t 285k track roughly with the number of teslas in the US x the FSD take rate?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1609318193826500609

 

[Criscmt]

(I haven't gone through a lot of posts on this thread since a while, so the topic might have been covered already)
Are you seeing unusually very high number of M3, and MY purchases after the incentive, especially the latest ($7.5k) incentive?

In SF BayArea, people I know of who never were planning to buy a Tesla bought Model Y.
In the case of one, several (~5) neighbors bought similarly.
In the case of another, ~5 of his friends bought, 2-3 of them had ID 4 orders, they cancelled those orders and bought MY. One drove 400 miles to pick one.
Another one in that network is considering buying one tomorrow.
None of them ever owned cars/vehicles that are >40k.

Know of another in NW who bought. His buddy drove ~300miles to get his today. This guy who drove 300miles had an order 3k below current price, declined his VIN when the incentive was $3750. After incentive changed to $7500, he started calling Tesla daily asking if he can get a VIN assigned, and he didn't get one. And, yesterday after the IRA guidelines came, and MY 5-seater's weren't going to be eligible for credit, he repeatedly reached out to Tesla asking any VIN in inventory in surrounding cities, had to pick a color he wasn't keen on, and it was 300 miles away.

I wonder if this is what's happening across the US.
And hopefully there were a lot of vehicles in various locations across US with the way vehicles were shipped in Q3.
Are you guys seeing these in your network?
If this is happening across US (and maybe to some extent in EU), wouldn't this lead to a huge beat in deliveries, especially given there was a lot of inventory end of Q3.
I am NOT trying to hype things before the event. In fact, I am one who over years was wishing folks here not hype things as much as is done, followed by disappointment (even in instances when Tesla does a great job)

Common, everyone!
Just reactions, no responses, none seen anything similar?
I know almost everyone here is a deca-millionaire. But does everyone in your network (even second degree connection) have Teslas already, and none bought a car after the $7500 incentive?
It can't be just me seeing such sales.

 

[tslalala]

It has. But then we had all the "big changes" enacted with the recent IRA legislation. Now, it seems those changes have been effectively overturned by the IRS - all you need to do is lease to get around those new rules. That's why Senator Manchin has been begging for different regulation and threatening new legislation (good luck with that, Senator Joe!).

What kind of idiots do we have running our government?

Yeah, really? The Biden administration couldn't pass the IRA without Joe Machin who explicitly shaped the bill to focus on American manufacturing of EVs/batteries/mining. Everyone needs to acknowledge (regardless of their political leanings) that it has been more than dishonest that the Democratic party and the Biden administration has been more than dishonest by constantly changing the substance of IRA and delaying it.

As we all know, the IRA as currently framed by the IRS is outright discriminating Tesla by requiring 7 seats to qualify for the SUV classification of the IRA while many plug-in hybrids (e.g. Ford, VW) qualify and with only 5 seats - not cool.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I know almost everyone here is a deca-millionaire

*was

 

[mongo]

As we all know, the IRA as currently framed by the IRS is outright discriminating Tesla by requiring 7 seats to qualify for the SUV classification of the IRA while many plug-in hybrids (e.g. Ford, VW) qualify and with only 5 seats - not cool.

We don't all know that.
1. The definition of SUV, van, and pickup (light truck derivatives) were already defined in law
2. There are more ways to qualify as a light truck than just 3 rows with 2 folding
3. The vehicle caps as listed on the IRS site were provided by the manufacturers (and there may be incorrect interpretations)

 

[MikeC]

Common, everyone!
Just reactions, no responses, none seen anything similar?
I know almost everyone here is a deca-millionaire. But does everyone in your network (even second degree connection) have Teslas already, and none bought a car after the $7500 incentive?
It can't be just me seeing such sales.

My sister is at the delivery center picking up a new Y right now. The 7500 and 10,000 miles got her off the fence. Most of my friends and family have a 3 or Y at this point.

 

[MP3Mike]

If there were really so many actual new users of FSD Beta, we'd be seeing far more traffic about it. And the number of stories about accidents would have at least doubled just from having more vehicles out there. We've seen none of that.

Just because they have it doesn't mean that they are using it much, if at all. I try each version once, to see if it has improved. If my insurance still reports it as a bad driver I stop using it and wait until the next version to try again.

 

[hobbes]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1609266824545292289

 

[Singuy]

Anybody else read this tweet the way I did?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1608552555822325762

I keep seeing people say that "Enabled anyone in North America who has purchased FSD to request FSD Beta, reaching 285k cars total" means that FSD Beta is now on 285k cars. I don't think so. I think all they're saying is that 285k cars can now get FSD Beta if they want to. They've been "enabled".

If there were really so many actual new users of FSD Beta, we'd be seeing far more traffic about it. And the number of stories about accidents would have at least doubled just from having more vehicles out there. We've seen none of that.

Anyway, anybody know different?

I just got news on FB that some people just received FSD without opting in (they bought it, tried the score thing, didn't work out, opted out. Another car has fsd but never even bothered to opt in).

So indeed this software is going to everyone who bought it.

And as for accidents, the beta program has very high safety rating because people are actually attentive. They have passed the 100M miles mark and still no minor or major injuries we have heard of. Comparing to regular human driving, we should have over 120 injuries by now if the fsd program is as safe as human drivers.


Haha can you imagine if 120 people got hurt already using FSD? It'll be investigated to the ground and Tesla stock will be at zero.

 

[30seconds]

Common, everyone!
Just reactions, no responses, none seen anything similar?
I know almost everyone here is a deca-millionaire. But does everyone in your network (even second degree connection) have Teslas already, and none bought a car after the $7500 incentive?
It can't be just me seeing such sales.

I know one person who picked up a Model Y this week based on the $7,500 incentive and I know one person who was planning to buy a Model X but decided not to due to someone being a jacka$$ on-line. I let her know about the $7,500 but was told that it "wasn't about the money."

 

[insaneoctane]

Zach normally sells shares on a regular basis, which I suppose all comes from pre-planed sales, probably from granted options

This is the first time I've seen that he's bought and not sold, but maybe I wasn't paying full attention

View attachment 890832

Interesting, but my rough visual math shows he's selling $15M+ per year of TSLA. I, personally, wouldn't have been selling for the second half of 2022 with the stock price so foolishly low. Maybe his monthly expenses are higher than mine....

 

[MC3OZ]

Not only that, but his original account was suspended on that platform:

https://twitter.com/zersosumgame1/

Now he's retweeting the same content under a different account with a similar name plus a couple digits.

https://twitter.com/Zerosumgame33/

Something else is going on behind the scenes.

He did post on how to view information hidden in the souce code for the Tesla Megapack site. I am not sure what Twitter rule that would violate, but it seems like the wrong thing to do.

 

[30seconds]

I'm trying to imagine the demand for the S3XY with $7500 incentive if the stock price was ~$300.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1609323038020968448

 

[EVWatcher]

He did post on how to view information hidden in the souce code for the Tesla Megapack site. I am not sure what Twitter rule that would violate, but it seems like the wrong thing to do.

The idea that a software engineer would know or have access to information like margins seems a little unlikely to begin with. Less likely is that a software engineer would then hardcode that into the client side of a website.

 

[AudubonB]

And, as forewarned.....