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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Hello all:

I had expected to post this some time over the past few days, but then realized it would interfere with market commentary during the intra-holiday week. To ensure all will find this post, I'll be closing the thread for a number of hours - probably until the European contingent will be able to see this their tomorrow morning. In the meantime, all other Investor threads remain open.

Family matters have called my wife to be just about fully occupied with same for the foreseeable future. And that means that effectively all homeschool duties for our 5-year old have now fallen on my shoulders. A daunting task under normal conditions; combined with running the lodge it puts us in a truly parlous state until he takes off for CalTech in a couple of years. Fortunately, in 2023, lodge business is minimal until the summer tourists arrive.

But that means that my TMC Mod duty is where the axe will be falling the hardest. You can expect for me to be looking in every other week or so, perhaps a bit more often through the end of the winter (errr....that's July....), BUT that also means that where I find misbehaviour I am going to be that much more stringent in handing out yellow cards. So be on your best and remember that @ggr and @Right_Said_Fred remain, until they tell you otherwise, on duty.

Also: bioengineering, upper-level physics, Mandarin and coding tutors....send in your resumés. Tak.
 
Frohes neues Jahr! :)

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Did we really need to lock this thread just so a mod could tell us they will be busy?

On the other hand, it'd probably be for the betterment of many if this thread just stayed locked for a while 😂
Yes we did! And I’m planning to be a mod as well so I can lock the thread after posting epic memes and make sure everyone is seeing them.

Happy new year 🥳
 
First prediction for the year -

The government is going to spend more money on lawsuits from favoritism on the EV list than what they’ll actually spend on the EV credit 🥴

As the list fills out, it’s getting more and more beyond silly as to what qualifies and what doesn’t
A tool in disguise and no more. Placating good intentions within a funhouse of mirrors.
Interesting how many here don't agree. Watch the downvotes come.
 
Did we really need to lock this thread just so a mod could tell us they will be busy?

On the other hand, it'd probably be for the betterment of many if this thread just stayed locked for a while 😂
As for your first sentence, Audie just chose that as the best opportunity to make his announcement, had nothing to do with the small amount of time it was locked down for maintenance. Perpetual Roundtable is the longest thread in the entire forum and probably requires more behind the scenes software (and perhaps hardware) maintenance than any of us are aware.

Now given that @AudubonB is not going to be monitoring the thread as much, it's up to us posters to make sure we police it as much as possible. This thread is unique and for discussion about investing in TSLA and things that impact our investment, so try your best to take any tangential discussions to the correct thread rather than muddying up this one. I know I've been guilty of it in the past and will try to do better.

As for your second sentence, I agree completely!

Fingers crossed for an awesome P&D report about this time tomorrow!
 
First half of 2023 Wishlist:

Q4 EPS print of $1.5, showing steadied automotive margins, an uptick in Energy revenue and margins, and FSD revenue recognition adding to bottom line. Tesla reaffirms solid automotive production volume and free cash flow growth in 2023. Clarifies no real demand issues in Europe and U.S., any China issues mitigated by more exports. Establishes a clear path of Energy free cash flow growth. Analysts must now revise 2023 EPS estimates upwards over $6 per share. Stock prices moves up around $200. @The Accountant offers apologies for low-balling earnings and posting analyses to Twitter first - revises 2023 EPS estimates to $7.


FSD V11 is released and provides a small improvement in performance. But stack simplification allows more resources deployed to FSDbeta improvement and faster iteration. Object detection reaches near human level as occupancy network increases resolution 16x. @Discoducky provides a 100 page product map of each feature update.

Tesla releases Tesla Maps, it's own low-res mapping product app. Crowdsourced from it's own fleet, it quasi-real time updates a vectorized representation of every road in the U.S. with lane & intersection language, all sign & light markings, and of course traffic flow. The app provides all relevant information that FSDbeta desires to reduce intersection / navigation confusion and disengagements. The % of drives w/o a critical disengagement now goes above 99% and user feedback notes that the product is now actually usuable.

Tesla announces 5 new factories throughout the year. 1) GigaTequila for cargo van (with product unveil), 2/3) China and Brazil with compact car unveil, 4/5) Indonesia and Canada for MegaPack factories. @jbcarioca succesor tells us how cars can be affordably made in Brazil even while Carnaval and the World Cup are played.

On back of $7500 tax credit that may be reduced in Q2, Q1 EPS prints a huge $1.7 with increasing margins. Share price climbs to just under $300 with PE ratio of 50.

Fed stops rate hikes and signals future small rate cut, markets respond with a decent bull run, pushing Tesla PE ratio back over 60 and $330 share price.

Tesla announces initial Cybertruck production in June.

@AudubonB deals a self-blow by subconsciously acknowledging @ZeApelido should tutor his child.

Also: bioengineering, upper-level physics, Mandarin and coding tutors....send in your resumés.

Site owner makes me head moderator.
 
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2022 final stats. Not pretty, but at least the year ended on an upswing. Hoping for a much better 2023!

Record:122-1280.488
Total margin of wins:929.65
Total margin of losses:-1,158.73
2022 total loss:-229.08-65.03%
Best Win:47.67Jan 3
Worst Loss:-40.53Apr 26
Last 10:3-7
Streak:W3
Avg margin of victory:7.62
Avg margin of defeat:-9.05
Avg Volume:120,351,634
Highest closing price:399.93Jan 3
Lowest closing price:109.10Dec 27
Final closing price / ATH30.6%

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Well, good riddance to 2022, and welcome 2023 - here's wishing us all less stress than we've recently become accustomed to

Interesting that when I browse around Tesla.com for the EU I'm not seeing any new M3/Y inventory - now I doubt they sold them all, although it is a possibility, so could be they're changing something, pricing or specs? Maybe... or might just be a glitch
 
First half of 2023 Wishlist:

Q4 EPS print of $1.5, showing steadied automotive margins, an uptick in Energy revenue and margins, and FSD revenue recognition adding to bottom line. Tesla reaffirms solid automotive production volume and free cash flow growth in 2023. Clarifies no real demand issues in Europe and U.S., any China issues mitigated by more exports. Establishes a clear path of Energy free cash flow growth. Analysts must now revise 2023 EPS estimates upwards over $6 per share. Stock prices moves up around $200. @The Accountant offers apologies for low-balling earnings and posting analyses to Twitter first - revises 2023 EPS estimates to $7.


FSD V11 is released and provides a small improvement in performance. But stack simplification allows more resources deployed to FSDbeta improvement and faster iteration. Object detection reaches near human level as occupancy network increases resolution 16x. @Discoducky provides a 100 page product map of each feature update.

Tesla releases Tesla Maps, it's own low-res mapping product app. Crowdsourced from it's own fleet, it quasi-real time updates a vectorized representation of every road in the U.S. with lane & intersection language, all sign & light markings, and of course traffic flow. The app provides all relevant information that FSDbeta desires to reduce intersection / navigation confusion and disengagements. The % of drives w/o a critical disengagement now goes above 99% and user feedback notes that the product is now actually usuable.

Tesla announces 5 new factories throughout the year. 1) GigaTequila for cargo van (with product unveil), 2/3) China and Brazil with compact car unveil, 4/5) Indonesia and Canada for MegaPack factories. @jbcarioca succesor tells us how cars can be affordably made in Brazil even while Carnaval and the World Cup are played.

On back of $7500 tax credit that may be reduced in Q2, Q1 EPS prints a huge $1.7 with increasing margins. Share price climbs to just under $300 with PE ratio of 50.

Fed stops rate hikes and signals future small rate cut, markets respond with a decent bull run, pushing Tesla PE ratio back over 60 and $330 share price.

Tesla announces initial Cybertruck production in June.

@AudubonB deals a self-blow by subconsciously acknowledging @ZeApelido should tutor his child.



Site owner makes me head moderator.
So what i understood is we are not hitting new ATH in 2023 until Q4 maybe. Got it! :)