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If this existing classsification language has existed for 10 years then why didn’t anyone see this coming? No one in the last six months has brought up any of these scenarios where certain two row SUVs would qualify for the full credit while others are denied because they aren’t lifted enough

Bee. Ess. I told you guys this Administration was hostile to Tesla, and would contrive some way to cut Tesla out of the IRA benefits, while forking over the pork to gas guzzling competitors. And now we find out that Tesla's largest selling model isn't eligible? Please.
 
fyi: for those wondering when China will peak and then start the downtrend and perhaps return to some sense of normalcy:

One report:

China could see as many as 25,000 deaths a day from covid-19 later in January, casting a shadow over the start of the first Lunar New Year festivities without pandemic restrictions.

Mortalities from the contagious respiratory illness will probably peak around Jan 23, the second day of the annual holiday in the country of 1.4 billion, according to Airfinity Ltd, a London-based research firm that focuses on predictive health analytics. Daily infections will peak 10 days before at around 3.7 million cases, the researcher said.

So towards end of Q1 Tesla sales in China might start too look a bit better hopefully.
 
Not without giving advance notice to suppliers. Logistics is a thing in the real world.
You mean these suppliers?

 
By the end of next year, a vehicle will be disqualified from both halves of the credit if it contains any battery minerals coming from China, Russia, Iran, or North Korea.
That is why it may be a good idea to have a Lithium refining plant in Texas and to import battery raw materials from countries having a free trade agreement with the US.

It will be a good test of how fast 4680 cell production can ramp.

Tesla already has some parts of the jigsaw, and is working on the rest.

Tesla can pivot and innovate fast when they need to, my guess is Tesla can pivot faster than the government can change the rules.

Tesla has form in making special models which qualify for government subsidies.

The government intention doesn't matter, I expect Tesla to be good at making vehicles which qualify for the IRA.

Maybe Tesla might need to take a hit to the margin, that is the worst case scenario.
 
Here is TSLA doing its thing in Europe on a day when the US markets are closed.

CD452D4D-53CD-4B49-84EC-E4296D5DFF56.jpeg
 
You mean these suppliers?

Haha, nice try. Tesla doesn't make the raw materials, which still have to be ordered from suppliers. Sure, Tesla makes their own seats, that's why I said they could ramp up seat production in 6 months, instead of the 2+ years it would take legacy automakers who order their seats from seat manufacturers.
 
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Prediction: tesla beats production and delivery numbers by a healthy amount, but mainstream media comes in during the coming weeks and say that’s only because of EOY discounts and FUDs Tesla margins.
Very likely.

Lot of buzz re. Tesla selling inventory vehicles across many countries/locations with great success.
My WAG is delivery of 470K+ cars.

Hopefully this will be a 1-2 punch:
First, the better than expected amount of delivery.
Then af lot of FUD re. Tesla 'giving' cars away for cheap, trying to negate the win.
But then the earnings report delivering the K.O.
 
On the Belgian/Dutch forum today an interesting post of a former Ford Mach-e owner, hereunder translated from Dutch.

------------------------------

I've owned the Model Y RWD for about 3 days now. The difference with my previous car (Mustang Mach-E AWD) is greater than I expected (in a positive sense). The Y drives much smoother, is quieter, more economical and steers more stable. In terms of infotainment, software and the phone app, it is a night and day difference.

The screen in the Mustang was so laggy, buggy and unintuitive compared to the Y. This also applies to the phone app (Android). The functionality in the Ford app was quite limited. Basic commands such as starting the car or unlocking the doors often took 20 seconds or more. Usually nothing happened at all. OTA, as advertised, I've seen nothing of it in the year I've had the Mustang. Not a single update. Apparently updates are made occasionally in the US, but the functionality that is added is often limited or half-baked. In terms of software, I feel like I've stepped forward 10 years in time.

I personally think the Y is better finished and the materials used are much more luxurious. Almost on the same level as the 3 Series (2020) that I drove before the Mustang.

All in all very satisfied with the Y. I find it shocking that the Mustang is more than 15,000 euros more expensive than the Y and has much less to offer. Of course the above is all subjective, but the Y is a much better car.

Unfortunately, traveling with a non-Tesla was not the best experience. On longer journeys you will simply be sent to chargers from 4-5 different providers. You often don't know whether they are available, work, what the costs will be and which pass/app you can best use.

I regularly had to drive to the next charging station because the charger was defective, there was a communication problem between the charger and the car or the card/app did not work. This all causes unnecessary stress and delay.

Of course I have yet to experience the SC network, but my first charging sessions were very positive. Plug and Play
:)

------------------------------

Competition is coming? :rolleyes:
 
A friend of mine just took delivery of a Berlin built 2023 Y Performance. I'm frankly very impressed with the noise level and timbre inside the car; it's noticably quieter than my 2021 3 Performance (double glazed) and outside noise seems to be particularly well damped in higher frequency/light tones. For instance, driving in rain and splashing through standing water sounds much more remote in the Y - much better damped than a straight dB measurement would indicate I suspect.

We are both multiple Tesla owners and went over the whole car with light and calipers. It's great - slightly misaligned rear hatch (just outside 5 mm gap) right hand side between light cluster. Paint is pretty darn great for this price level - no imperfections or orange peel found anywhere on the car.

Best part for last - the ride on 21" is much improved and combines more supple low speed ride with great high speed stability. Recently had a 2022 Y perfromance loaner (august build Shanghai car) wich I liked a lot. Well this Berlin car is significantly improvedin ride and noise level.

I think Tesla is learning and improving as fast as ever.
 
Ive got no special feel for numbers and do not follow analists predictions to understand validity.
I do not recall much about prior sales reports.
things that i Do not expect to be reported today or soon that Ipact bottom line:
FSD recognition
megapack sales, perhaps increasing due to battery availability
same for home Tesla wall, less contributory
insurance
sc fees

things I observe that will likely be found out in numbers;
there are a lot of s and x models sitting unsold In the US
semi made/delivered?

too much ev ira tax bandwidth consumption here.
write your rep
trust Tsla leadership
stop wheelchair quarterbacking

still too many wearing egg on face with hopeful predictions of moves up.
me Increasingly thinks we are in a transitional time
much like post s and x waiting on 3.
gotta build out for where we are to where we are going for next set of legs or wings to grow
mp 3 in action, come to fruition kind of time
perhaps why musk predicted time for next stock sales

mp3 future
e market reg changes
more insurance
better FSD product
smaller mass produced vehicle. Tercel, not Camry. Civic not accord.
exoskeleton truck sales growth
semi growth
e grid battery pack explosion
e grid money shaving peak fees
lithium plant

large war department helps
bulls should shud up about buyback, it’s too short term in thinking

there remains too many Tesla parasites. while they may be investors, they participate in bad cooking, stirring hot pepper 🌶 to create fire. Ignore the eyeball hogs.
 
Happy new year everyone!
Hope 2023 would treat everyone better than the past year.

While we are waiting for Q4 delivery numbers, I had a few unrelated thoughts:

On Model Y 5 seat credit in US, I am not a tiny bit worried.
Yes I am mad many plug-in hybrid made to the list, but I am not worried that Tesla would not be able fully take advantage of the credit.
Worst case, all US eligible customers can chose to order 7 seaters, or if Tesla can offer a extra long range trim that’s heavier to meet the requirements, it would better suit people who don’t want 7 seats.
Again, not worried at all.

On current TSLA Price, it’s a long term positive. Hear me out, current lowered SP made it so much more compelling for top talents to join the company now, since they can expect much better returns on equity comparing to 2 years ago.
Tesla’s future is limited by the quality and quantity of talent it could attract. (It’s a tech company, to be clear)
With the expectation of layoff waves across the industry, there would be many top talent starting to consider escaping the uncertainty around current comfort positions and join force to something meaningful.
2023 would help Tesla to grow and build new teams to secure their growth for the next decade, mark my words there.

Cheers for a hopefully not bad, reasonable, tolerable new year.
 
Ive got no special feel for numbers and do not follow analists predictions to understand validity.
I do not recall much about prior sales reports.
things that i Do not expect to be reported today or soon that Ipact bottom line:
FSD recognition
megapack sales, perhaps increasing due to battery availability
same for home Tesla wall, less contributory
insurance
sc fees

things I observe that will likely be found out in numbers;
there are a lot of s and x models sitting unsold In the US
semi made/delivered?

too much ev ira tax bandwidth consumption here.
write your rep
trust Tsla leadership
stop wheelchair quarterbacking

still too many wearing egg on face with hopeful predictions of moves up.
me Increasingly thinks we are in a transitional time
much like post s and x waiting on 3.
gotta build out for where we are to where we are going for next set of legs or wings to grow
mp 3 in action, come to fruition kind of time
perhaps why musk predicted time for next stock sales

mp3 future
e market reg changes
more insurance
better FSD product
smaller mass produced vehicle. Tercel, not Camry. Civic not accord.
exoskeleton truck sales growth
semi growth
e grid battery pack explosion
e grid money shaving peak fees
lithium plant

large war department helps
bulls should shud up about buyback, it’s too short term in thinking

there remains too many Tesla parasites. while they may be investors, they participate in bad cooking, stirring hot pepper 🌶 to create fire. Ignore the eyeball hogs.
I do not recognize this poetry form. Can you rewrite as a limerick?
 
Wake up! The reason no one saw this coming was because the Act requires the Treasury to use "criteria similar to that employed by the Environmental Protection Agency and the Department of the Energy to determine size and class of vehicles." Because the EPA already classifies the Model Y as an SUV, it was just assumed by the investment community that the Model Y would be in the same $80K category that applies to other SUV's. But the Treasury cherry-picked the direction given to them by the IRA by using a different, more outdated, classification scheme, one that obviously doesn't include the Model Y and goes against the spirit of the law that Congress voted on.

Calling the classification scheme selected by the Treasury "the current classification" falsely implies there is only one classification scheme they were directed to base their rulemaking on and is intellectually dishonest. Unless you mistakenly believe there is one, and only one classification scheme they were directed to base their rulemaking on. In that case you would simply be misinformed.

Billions of dollars are on the line so I would suggest that anyone who believes this was inadvertent is more than a little naive. Wake up!

I'd go as far as to say that anyone who thinks this wasn't considered during the drafting of the IRA, and long before it was handed to Treasury, is naive.

There are many more "good" reasons to have done it this way. Not only does it support the unspoken policy of shunning Tesla, it also restricts the lion's share of recipients by the benefit not being applicable to the largest selling EV. This saves on budget costs for the program as a whole, and significantly reduces the impact of the IRA on the economy. The results can be spun in a way to bolster the optics for the incumbents in the coming elections. Then, there are the boons offered the legacy OEMs and Unions who are the darlings of the system for their steady contributions to campaigns over the decades.

Honestly, anyone who wasn't expecting this to work out this way simply haven't been paying attention.

Edit: Likewise, anyone who doesn't believe Tesla can quickly pivot to make lemonade from the lemons being provided has also not been paying attention.
 
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I'd go as far as to say that anyone who thinks this wasn't considered during the drafting of the IRA, and long before it was handed to Treasury, is naive.

There are many more "good" reasons to have done it this way. Not only does it support the unspoken policy of shunning Tesla, it also restricts the lion's share of recipients by the benefit not being applicable to the largest selling EV. This saves on budget costs for the program as a whole, and significantly reduces the impact of the IRA on the economy. The results can be spun in a way to bolster the optics for the incumbents in the coming elections. Then, there are the boons offered the legacy OEMs and Unions who are the darlings of the system for their steady contributions to campaigns over the decades.

Honestly, anyone who wasn't expecting this to work out this way simply haven't been paying attention.

Edit: Likewise, anyone who doesn't believe Tesla can quickly pivot to make lemonade from the lemons being provided has also not been paying attention.
Range unlock trim coming? LEMYR?