Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MP3Mike]

You must be an eternal optimist. It doesn't take long to write up a crap proposal! I think we will suffer through just as many crap proposals as ever, but I can dream you're right.

The whole point of the article is that a number of people that wanted to submit a proposal missed the deadline, 12/22/2022, because they didn't know about the meeting being schedule and what the deadline was. (Because they didn't read the 10-Q.)

So they will have to wait until the 2024 shareholder's meeting to submit their crap. (Though I am sure that some proposals did get submitted, like the one from Karen.)

 

[petit_bateau]

Re storage:

Quite by coincidence a bit more private data came into me today which allowed me to get a better fix on the 2022 market for residential storage in a way that I could cross-check it against a good quality public dataset. That in turn allowed me to extend an older dataset and motivated me to clean it up a bit. The private data was knowledge of distributor level ordering of domestic grid-tie storage bundles in the UK in monetary terms. From this I was able to calculate the GWh/yr going into UK residential (domestic) storage. I could cross-check that against the well documented MCS public domain database and the two numbers were very close (about 97%). It also corresponds very well with the anecdotal data that I get back from my own installer/distributor/consultant/etc network around the world, and also with general industry media reports. That in turn allows calculation of the 2022 domestic (residential) grid-tie storage market for a typical OECD country in GWh/million population and from that one can calculate the global OECD total for the residential/domestic market in 2022. For the utility market we have some other data from some other places.

MCS Data Dashboard launches today - MCS

The new MCS Data Dashboard makes our data publicly available for the first time since the scheme began; access it now!

mcscertified.com

That in turn allowed me to fill in some interesting gaps in various tables I've been building. It can also be compared with the points I have been making in the last few days re the relative position of Tesla in the storage space.

IF YOU HAVE BETTER primary* DATA, PLEASE CONTRIBUTE

* A lot of data in this area is commercial report-writers endlesly regurgitating the same IEA or Bloomberg reports in a very circular hyped fashion. One has to dine very selectively.

 

[EVMeister]

I wouldn't ignore all analysts.
View attachment 892724

Where did it get those numbers from? Very inaccurate... Could well be a job in Wall Street for ChatGPT.

 

[dhanson865]

Does this conversation really belong in this thread?

I think we all get that there is competition for Powerwall, but I really don’t think we need to hash out this level of detail in the investor thread.

It does if petit_bateau is going to write multipage missives as an authority figure. If you don't want to see someone question him then his strong opinions on Tesla Energy should be removed as well.

Taking the replies away and leaving just the original posts makes this an echo chamber that can easily be abused for any sort of misinformation.

 

[PeterJA]

Does this conversation really belong in this thread?

I think we all get that there is competition for Powerwall, but I really don’t think we need to hash out this level of detail in the investor thread.

Except @petit_bateau keeps asserting that competitors offer equivalent products for cheaper. @NicoV helpfully pointed out that the products are not equivalent.

This offers important perspective on @petit_bateau's opinion that the sky is falling on Tesla Energy... along with @petit_bateau's use of the "Tesla losing marketshare" argument favored by TSLAQ.

 

[Stretch2727]

Treasury guidance is due for critical materials, components, and vehicle classification (MSRP cap).
They also oversee what is a lease vs purchase.
From the memo that defines vehicle classes:

Combined with the extended comment period, it seems not locked in.

I think this FAQ is pretty clear they are only missing guidance on the Battery Mineral requirements.

https://www.irs.gov/pub/taxpros/fs-2022-42.pdf

Q6. What is the amount of the new clean vehicle credit? (added December 29, 2022)
A6. Beginning January 1, 2023, eligible vehicles may qualify for a tax credit of up to $7,500.
Until the day after the Treasury Department and the IRS issue proposed guidance on the critical mineral and battery component requirements of the new clean vehicle credit under § 30D, the credit is calculated as a $2,500 base amount plus, for a vehicle which draws propulsion energy from a battery with at least 5 kilowatt hours of capacity, $417, plus an additional $417 for each kilowatt hour of battery capacity in excess of 5 kilowatt hours, up to an additional $5,000 beyond the base amount. In general, the minimum credit amount will be $3,751 ($2,500 + 3 * $417), representing the credit amount for a vehicle with the minimum of 7 kilowatt hours of battery capacity.
Once the Treasury Department and the IRS issue the proposed critical mineral and battery component guidance later in 2023, additional requirements will change the amount of the credit (that is, an eligible vehicle may qualify for more or less credit than before). The credit amount will depend on the vehicle meeting the critical minerals requirement ($3,750) and/or the battery components requirement ($3,750). A vehicle meeting neither requirement will not receive a credit, a vehicle meeting only one requirement may be eligible for a $3,750 credit, and a vehicle meeting both requirements may be eligible for the full $7,500 credit. The Treasury Department and the IRS anticipate issuing the proposed guidance in March.

The question on vehicle eligibility is not waiting for guidance. Yes they will update the list if a vehicle changes but they are not changing guidance.

Q2. Is there a list of vehicles that qualify for the new clean vehicle credit? (added December 29, 2022)
A2. Yes. The following link contains a list of eligible clean vehicles, including fuel cell vehicles, qualified manufacturers have indicated to the IRS meet the requirements to claim the new clean vehicle credit beginning January 1, 2023: Clean Vehicle Qualified Manufacturer Requirements. This list will be updated to reflect changes in vehicle eligibility. Verification of the manufacturer's suggested retail price and final assembly is required, see Topic B FAQs 2 and 3.

 

[petit_bateau]

Except @petit_bateau keeps asserting that competitors offer equivalent products for cheaper. @NicoV helpfully pointed out that the products are not equivalent.

This offers important perspective on @petit_bateau's opinion that the sky is falling on Tesla Energy... along with @petit_bateau's use of the "Tesla losing marketshare" argument favored by TSLAQ.

What a lot of folk seem to be missing, is that my forecasts for Tesla Energy financials are more optimistic than almost everyone who contributes an EPS forecast to the Near Quarter Financial projections. Yet my opinions are also out of kilter with a lot of the kool-aid drinkers. So maybe the kool-aid drinkers need to start writing down their EPS forecasts.

 

[Ocelot]

Re storage:

Quite by coincidence a bit more private data came into me today which allowed me to get a better fix on the 2022 market for residential storage in a way that I could cross-check it against a good quality public dataset. That in turn allowed me to extend an older dataset and motivated me to clean it up a bit. The private data was knowledge of distributor level ordering of domestic grid-tie storage bundles in the UK in monetary terms. From this I was able to calculate the GWh/yr going into UK residential (domestic) storage. I could cross-check that against the well documented MCS public domain database and the two numbers were very close (about 97%). It also corresponds very well with the anecdotal data that I get back from my own installer/distributor/consultant/etc network around the world, and also with general industry media reports. That in turn allows calculation of the 2022 domestic (residential) grid-tie storage market for a typical OECD country in GWh/million population and from that one can calculate the global OECD total for the residential/domestic market in 2022. For the utility market we have some other data from some other places.

MCS Data Dashboard launches today - MCS

The new MCS Data Dashboard makes our data publicly available for the first time since the scheme began; access it now!

mcscertified.com

That in turn allowed me to fill in some interesting gaps in various tables I've been building. It can also be compared with the points I have been making in the last few days re the relative position of Tesla in the storage space.

IF YOU HAVE BETTER primary* DATA, PLEASE CONTRIBUTE

View attachment 892727

* A lot of data in this area is commercial report-writers endlesly regurgitating the same IEA or Bloomberg reports in a very circular hyped fashion. One has to dine very selectively.

Hi there small boat! I really appreciate your contributions, and always find them informative.
The numbers that jump out at me are the global utility market per cent. It seems it has been declining since 2019 to 18 per cent, yet next year you have it close to 50 per cent. Maybe I missed it but seems like a big jump, and in accordance the other OEM GWh concrete numbers are declining 2022-2023 where one would expect it to increase maybe accounting for this?

 

[Ogre]

Except @petit_bateau keeps asserting that competitors offer equivalent products for cheaper. @NicoV helpfully pointed out that the products are not equivalent.

This offers important perspective on @petit_bateau's opinion that the sky is falling on Tesla Energy... along with @petit_bateau's use of the "Tesla losing marketshare" argument favored by TSLAQ.

I think the point has been made long since myself. Nothing @petit_bateau has said makes me worry about whether Tesla Energy can sell every thing they make. He won’t even talk about that. As has been said before, the energy storage market is absolutely massive and deep. There is plenty of room for Chinese companies to fill niches while Tesla focuses on their assessable markets. Neither are likely to run out of low hanging fruit for a decade or more.

It does if petit_bateau is going to write multipage missives as an authority figure. If you don't want to see someone question him then his strong opinions on Tesla Energy should be removed as well.

Taking the replies away and leaving just the original posts makes this an echo chamber that can easily be abused for any sort of misinformation.

I thought I was clear I was talking about the whole discussion, not just one half of it.

Just because a person is long winded and authoritative sounding doesn’t mean we have to keep going deeper and deeper down a rabbit hole of obscurity and irrelevance.

 

[Ogre]

Watched the Ram event.

Total waste. It was 30 minutes of a Ram executive standing on stage spewing buzzwords in front of a concept truck which will never ship.

Only take-away is that Ram is at least 18 months from shipping. They just want to get buyers to delay purchases for a couple more years until their truck ships.

They took every feature from every other truck maker and crammed it into one concept vehicle. Then they added magic “Trucknology” which doesn’t exist into the mix.

PS: The awesome thing about CES is a huge chunk of participants ended up riding around in a Tesla during the event. Nothing like talking up your products while everyone is riding around in your competitors.

 

[GOVA]

We have removed Twitter talk from here...

Can we move opinions about storage and lame powerwall comparisons to separate thread too?

 

[Big Time]

Tesla energy is going to rip faces off

 

[petit_bateau]

Hi there small boat! I really appreciate your contributions, and always find them informative.
The numbers that jump out at me are the global utility market per cent. It seems it has been declining since 2019 to 18 per cent, yet next year you have it close to 50 per cent. Maybe I missed it but seems like a big jump, and in accordance the other OEM GWh concrete numbers are declining 2022-2023 where one would expect it to increase maybe accounting for this?

Yes, I can see that, but I don't want to smooth the data. It has rough edges and that is how it is, and I want to make that clear to everyone.

I'm pulling those utility global market data from two different sources, both of whom in my opinion have big error terms. The historical IEA reports likely under-report historical due to how those studies get done. The BNEF Bloomberg projections are in many ways a regash of the IEA projections which I trust about as much as a fox in a hen coop. Nonetheless I use both sets of data as they are publicly available. The only tweak I've done is to smooth the bridge between them.

Good quantitative data sets are very important, but so too is the qualitative information flow that is more or less available. You won't find a single public report that I know of giving the historical domestic storage market for example (ideally split between grid tie, off grid, and hybrid). Yet as you can see that is in toto a similar size to the utility market by my 2022 estimation.

More generally, my personal opinion is that folk criticising my view(s) and datasets because they don't like it (not you) need to actually put their own data on the table. If they have any. We should be data driven, whether it is quantitative or qualitative. Interpretation and analysis and understanding follows from that.

 

[Speedr117]

Leasing cannot replace selling at anything close to a 1:1 ratio in this scenario, probably more like 1 lease for every 2-3 sales lost.

Slap a $589/month lease special somewhere on the website and that ratio will change ASAP! BMW leased over 50% of their vehicles, at least per-pandemic.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

……….But again, why sell short here? People and institutions primarily trade to make profits, the profit on the downside seems severely limited at this price-point, makes no sense. I do wonder if it's not covertly backed by some nefarious deep-pockets - not that the SP going low will necessarily hurt the company, but it froments anger with shareholderst. It's one of my pet theories that they keep forcing the price down to try to get Elon ousted from the company. I may be in cloud-cuckoo land, but it's one of the few reasons I can think for this continual selling, along with the barrage of FUD levelled at home (some of which he has Brough own himself, of course)……

We already know that Bill Gates was shorting. Now, who are best buddies? Warren Buffett, who also has deep pockets, pledged or donated to the Gates Foundation, owns shares of BYD, railroads, utilities and oil companies. That’s at least five reasons, maybe six. Also, WB only invests in “value” stocks with wide moats, great growth potential, and CEOs that he trusts (to do his bidding). So, drive down price, drive out the CEO, and swoop in, buying large blocks of shares secretly (black pools). Probably not likely, but certainly won’t happen if Elon remains.

Edit: My wishlist for next Tesla announcements:
1) M3 refresh using castings and all other new tech lessons from MY
2) $40,000 base M3, SR, RWD, white, available in February, 1M/yr
3) Multi-configuration van (2-9 seats, delivery, RV, 120/240V outlets)
4) New gigafactories in Mexico, Canada, Brazil, Indonesia
5) Worldwide insurance availability (because……
6) Level 5 FSD autopilot and TeslaNet Ride Hailing
7) Vehicle leasing through Tesla instead of a 3rd party
8) Semi deliveries of 10k, 20k, 50k, etc.
9) Finally, Cybertruck delivered in 2023

 

[2daMoon]

Surely it can only be attempted injury if you're in a Tesla.

I think you mean assault with batteries, don't you?

 

[nativewolf]

Except @petit_bateau keeps asserting that competitors offer equivalent products for cheaper. @NicoV helpfully pointed out that the products are not equivalent.

This offers important perspective on @petit_bateau's opinion that the sky is falling on Tesla Energy... along with @petit_bateau's use of the "Tesla losing marketshare" argument favored by TSLAQ.

Oh please he is an analytical expert that is very pro Tesla. My own take on the utility storage market was Tesla pealed in late 2018/2019 but we are not far off. In NV , same state as Reno gf, Tesla lost out this year on the largest USA sale to the massive solar/battery project in LV. It was lost to CATL. Perfectly equivalent utility. Go look at any tracking of major utility scale renewables and see who makes the storage component. Tesla was rarely seen in 2022.

Re margins: the storage systems today are disrupting the most lucrative and smallest sector of the grid, the. The next most. In 2 years that will be done ! No more grid frequency stabilization sales. The marginal utility of storage then decreases and price will matter more and more.


He is pointing out what is really happening in the market and the echo chamber is attacking him. Very sad.

 

[Speedr117]

We already know that Bill Gates was shorting. Now, who are best buddies? Warren Buffett, who also has deep pockets, pledged or donated to the Gates Foundation, owns shares of BYD, railroads, utilities and oil companies. That’s at least five reasons, maybe six. Also, WB only invests in “value” stocks with wide moats, great growth potential, and CEOs that he trusts (to do his bidding). So, drive down price, drive out the CEO, and swoop in, buying large blocks of shares secretly (black pools). Probably not likely, but certainly won’t happen if Elon remains.

Buffett owns a lot of car dealerships too.

There's a reason he hasn't invested in Tesla. They're success degrades a lot of his businesses: Oil, insurance, car dealerships, utilities, even trains (autonomous Semis). Literally the opposite of Tesla.

 

[2daMoon]

I've not done the numbers for 2022 yet, but in the previous year BYD didn't do badly in the EV car numbers. AND ALSO BYD produced 32 GWh of cells, which was probably 32 GWh more than Tesla that year ! Plus BYD got all the chips it needed to go along with all of this. So I wouldn't be too sniffy about the capabilities of at least BYD .

View attachment 892644

Didn't Tesla buy cells from BYD?

How would that figure into this?

 

[PeterJA]

...He is pointing out what is really happening in the market and the echo chamber is attacking him. Very sad.

If "attacking" is asking questions that he won't answer, then I plead guilty.