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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Buffett owns a lot of car dealerships too.

There's a reason he hasn't invested in Tesla. They're success degrades a lot of his businesses: Oil, insurance, car dealerships, utilities, even trains (autonomous Semis). Literally the opposite of Tesla.
His last huge investment:
occidental petroleum, tho that might hurt him ATM. The Gates/Buffet alliance theory seems pretty logical IMHO. Plus he get frontrunners access through his friends vendetta with EM ;)

On the other hand, they are testing blade batteries in Berlin and Texas ATM. Seems the blade is probably beginning to become the arch enemy, that might spoil the 4680 party hence the pile up on MY 4680 battery packs in Tejas.

But BTT
 
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We, as a forum, as this thread is home to great discussion, need to continue to discuss and discern what is happening with demand.

It could be for several reasons that prices are being cut.

Traditionally it is due to demand for normal products in a normal market.

We are NOT in a normal market and the gov's of many countries are doing different things to either make their homegrown auto makers happy (GM, F, Stellantis as well as BYD and others).

Please think before you post considering these and other variables.

Some thoughts are:

  • ICE is being phased out in 10/15 years
  • Hybrid is being lumped in with BEV as the next step through gov incentives.
  • Recession is coming
  • Fed is pushing for lower inflation, prices and, unfortunately, lower employment which leads to less demand for new vehicles
  • Leading indicators suggest lower prices for supply chain, logistics and materials
Regardless of cause we need to conclude that price cuts are being made to spur up demand …
(Let’s face it- the majority here have been saying no demand issues)
cheers!!
+ wish Tesla provided some explanation that mentioned all the reasons, that included reduced commodity prices and manufacturing improvements
 
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We, as a forum, as this thread is home to great discussion, need to continue to discuss and discern what is happening with demand.

It could be for several reasons that prices are being cut.

Traditionally it is due to demand for normal products in a normal market.

We are NOT in a normal market and the gov's of many countries are doing different things to either make their homegrown auto makers happy (GM, F, Stellantis as well as BYD and others).

Please think before you post considering these and other variables.

Some thoughts are:

  • ICE is being phased out in 10/15 years
  • Hybrid is being lumped in with BEV as the next step through gov incentives.
  • Recession is coming
  • Fed is pushing for lower inflation, prices and, unfortunately, lower employment which leads to less demand for new vehicles
  • Leading indicators suggest lower prices for supply chain, logistics and materials

I'll add on to your list of thoughts with the pace of solar+battery adoption is still supply constrained (for the foreseeable future)...and demand will be through the roof even more in 2023+ thanks to IRA.

Solar: 2023 Renewable Energy Industry Outlook

Battery: What’s next for batteries

My 2 cents are that a transition of uprooting the entire world's energy infrastructure isn't supposed to be a giant worldwide party. I mean, we're doing this because our environment is starting to work against us and has been planned and known to do so now for the past century+. We're just living through the transition.
 
Regardless of cause we need to conclude that price cuts are being made to spur up demand …
(Let’s face it- the majority here have been saying no demand issues)
cheers!!
+ wish Tesla provided some explanation that mentioned all the reasons, that included reduced commodity prices and manufacturing improvements
"Global economy is a little shaky so it makes sense to cut prices to ensure demand keeps up with our impressively increasing supply. However, our input prices have steadily decreased and price cuts allow us to continue to expand production bringing in economies of scale. This will offset the majority of price cuts and result in only a slight decrease in margins."

A note along those lines would be very welcome.
 
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I see the price cuts and wonder...

  • What is the competition? BYD? If so, what are their margins
  • What is the current gov sponsored rebates?
This helps me discern what is going on....
According to Rob (TeslaDaily)

The BYD Seal is around $31,000 a close competitor to the Model 3, so Tesla is now with about 10% of a comparable BYD car, and I expect it to be similar where BYD has a similar model.

The Seal is a pretty good car, but not as good as a Model 3 IMO.

BYD margins are thought to be lower,.

Rob's other point was:- "How is everyone else going to complete with Tesla and BYD?"
 
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At this point, it's a foregone conclusion that earnings growth will come grinding to a halt. We laughed but I guess Adam Jonas was right, 2023 EPS might be under $4.

What PE ratio do you give to a company with no earnings growth, 10?

TSLA with a PE ratio of 10 is $40. Even with a generous 20 it would be $80. This stock literally might have been one of the biggest bubbles of all time.

Maybe it will recover some earnings growth but not for 2 years minimum.

Folks can try to convince themselves that this puts pressure on the competition - sure. But it's also going to put pressure on our bank accounts, somehow even worse than it has been.

Meanwhile Elon has been selling at local max points.

Can you say bagholders?
 
At this point, it's a foregone conclusion that earnings growth will come grinding to a halt. We laughed but I guess Adam Jonas was right, 2023 EPS might be under $4.

What PE ratio do you give to a company with no earnings growth, 10?

TSLA with a PE ratio of 10 is $40. Even with a generous 20 it would be $80. This stock literally might have been one of the biggest bubbles of all time.

Maybe it will recover some earnings growth but not for 2 years minimum.

Folks can try to convince themselves that this puts pressure on the competition - sure. But it's also going to put pressure on our bank accounts, somehow even worse than it has been.

Meanwhile Elon has been selling at local max points.

Can you say bagholders?
Holding bag is good enough for me- can wait

Who knows I might need Optimus to carry my bag in a few years
 
"Global economy is a little shaky so it makes sense to cut prices to ensure demand keeps up with our impressively increasing supply. However, our input prices have steadily decreased and price cuts allow us to continue to expand production bringing in economies of scale. This will offset the majority of price cuts and result in only a slight decrease in margins."

Who said this and when?
 
Tesla doesn’t offer the regular Model S and X in Europe
Tesla doesn’t offer any kind of Model S and X in China (for now)
Tesla doesn’t offer the Model Y SR in the USA
Tesla doesn’t offer the Model 3 LR in the USA
Good News:
Regular Model S and X are now offered in Europe
Plaid and Regular Model S and X are now offered in China
 
At this point, it's a foregone conclusion that earnings growth will come grinding to a halt. We laughed but I guess Adam Jonas was right, 2023 EPS might be under $4.

The financial math does not support this "foregone conclusion". The earnings growth will certainly slow down a bit, but margins have plenty of room to lower some during a recession, and with production up over 2,000,000 for 2023 the earnings (even with lower margins) will still be quite a bit more than $4 per share.
 
Price drop here in New Zealand as well

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The funny thing is, the newer BYD Seal looks more dated than the Model 3. It looks like a Toyota from a decade ago with a hint of Model 3 shape thrown in. The Model 3 has more of a timeless look, without all the superfluous and gaudy vents and styling "swooshes" that make it look like a toy spaceship or something.
Subarus never sold that well. It’s a Subaru face.
 
  • Disagree
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