Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

People are overthinking this.

If Tesla needs to lower prices to stimulate demand they will. Right now it looks like they are doing just fine without any big changes or discounting.

Tesla doesn't have the competition in the US that they have in China and the economy here is not as bad as the Chinese economy is either.

As Musk is inclined to say: "The best discount is no discount". And that strategy seems to be working so far.

Tesla is too busy filling orders from all those who have abandoned their Polestars and Mach-Es this Xmas for leaving them stranded.

 

[TrendTrader007]

Starting -8% premarket
Closing almost +3%
This is exactly how should be a reversal in a textbook case example

The shortzees will soon understand buyers are piling in the low 100s like the Tesla showrooms in China get charged by a horde of customers when Tesla are on sale.

i just saw on CNBC, Bill Miller, who lost 90% of his net worth in 2008 and now a billionaire thanks to AMZN and bitcoin is short Tesla
and long GM
good chance he will be a billionaire no more in short order

 

[EVNow]

If Dividends aren't the end goal, then what value does a stock have in your opinion?

You are owning a piece of the business, whose intrinsic value is expected to increase over time, which means your piece of the company increases in value, which you can trade easily for cash.

PS:

He's a mathematician, so numbers help.

I don't know whether your son has studied business or microeconomics. But the value of a stock is always npv of dividends plus expected capital appreciation. The above explains the basis of capital appreciation.

 

[EVNow]

If Tesla needs to lower prices to stimulate demand they will. Right now it looks like they are doing just fine without any big changes or discounting

My guess is they are waiting to see how Treasury will respond. Fairly sure some back channel negotiations are going on. Tesla will one way or another make Y eligible for tax credit.

 

[thesmokingman]

People are overthinking this.

If Tesla needs to lower prices to stimulate demand they will. Right now it looks like they are doing just fine without any big changes or discounting.

Tesla doesn't have the competition in the US that they have in China and the economy here is not as bad as the Chinese economy is either.

As Musk is inclined to say: "The best discount is no discount". And that strategy seems to be working so far.

Yeap. Too many arm chair quarterbacks thinking they are smarter than the team that got the team to where it is at.

 

[Beltsbear]

People are overthinking this.

If Tesla needs to lower prices to stimulate demand they will. Right now it looks like they are doing just fine without any big changes or discounting.

Tesla doesn't have the competition in the US that they have in China and the economy here is not as bad as the Chinese economy is either.

As Musk is inclined to say: "The best discount is no discount". And that strategy seems to be working so far.

I agree. Tesla now has the IRA stimulating demand on two trims. I think they will do a Y SR that qualifies as well ….. when they can. That may happen next week or two months from now.

I personally feel the 3 SR is overpriced.. but Uncle Sam is reducing the price by $7500 So Tesla is going to taste the demand for a bit. Maybe they drop it to $42,000 so it is the $35,000 price for LOL’s If they have any demand issues.

 

[TrendTrader007]

i would be a liar if i said that today did not potentially mark THE bottom:
#1 bears had every opportunity to take TSLA below $100. they fumbled. badly. if $101.81 is the worst damage they can do then it is likely game over for shorts.
#2 volume was 86% above average with a huge bullish engulfing pattern
#3 unless proven otherwise, i strongly suspect Tesla is following BIDU script of 2008-2009. don't hold your breath for this to happen with TSLA anytime soon but after falling from $429 to $100 over similar time frame in 2008-2009, Bidu ran up to $1600 by 2011 and 25X by 2014. clearly, this will never ever happen to TSLA because everybody knows, especially the 2 Bills (Gates and Miller) that TSLA is eminently shortable and shall be overtaken by the great General Motors
#4 technical indicators like RSI, MACD, force, stochastics all look good on daily chart
#5 weekly chart shows 2 consecutive hammers and way oversold RSI 27 or so
#5 $10+ more and yearly chart for TSLA will turn positive. yearly chart already positive for nasdaq composite, qqq, nvda, wynn, nio, xpev, lowly GM, loser F, used to be a contender AMZN etc
now, as everyone knows (or should know) that bottoming is a process which takes time
and i have tons of time
another 40 to 50 years, with any luck
can TSLA break $100 next week? absolutely!
but i would not bet on it

 

[Thekiwi]

Simple way for Tesla to address the lack of $7500 tax credit for 5 seat Model Y AWD:

Just do the same thing they did at the end of December--offer anyone who takes delivery in January $7500 off (possibly ask to see returns and only give to people who would otherwise qualify for IRS credit); then repeat each month until the IRS classifies the car as an SUV at the $80k cap.

Gives Tesla far more margin than reducing price of the base model to $55,000 ($65,990-$55,000 is > $7500). And then people would be able to configure however they wanted w/o fear of going over the $55,000 cap (so more people would be inclined to pick other colors, etc).

Seems Tesla could cover this. Case in point:

I placed an order for the 5 seat AWD Model Y approx one year ago (Jan 14, 2022) for a total price of $60,990 (blue AWD, white seats). The same config now is $67,990 ($7000 more).

Tesla effectively baked in the $7500 credit with the insane price increases over 2022. With commodity prices dropping, wouldn't be surprised if they could drop the base price down (but the should NOT drop the base price).

They should keep the higher base price of the 5 seat AWD so that once the IRS re-classifies the car as a SUV, people get the $7500 credit on the higher base. Tesla margins shoot back up.

In other words, it would be dumb for Tesla to drop prices. Instead just offer a $7500 credit that only lasts until the IRS one kicks in.

I said something similar a few days back (don’t drop price of the US Y LR by over $11k+ to below $55k just to make it eligible for a credit, instead just drop by $7,500 off current pricing, promoted as a limited time discount)

My WAG (WildAssGuess) for where the US lineup ends up at this year:

To confirm, yes I think they should just remove the non-performance Y LR 5 seater from the configurator In the US under the current IRA classifications. It would still be available off menu, as they would still need to produce this variant for other markets that Tesla USA exports to like Canada, Taiwan etc. Also making the Y SR a RWD preserves enough feature differential for the Y LR AWD 7 seater to remain very attractive (more range, more seats, extra motor, better upgrade options).

 

[SN_8]

Still slightly grumpy about the decimation over the past few months.

I'd be thrilled if it was only a decimation </pedantry>

 

[Ogre]

I know it’s a few weeks out, but I saw this on my Twitter feed today and I couldn’t help but think it’s the perfect thing to watch to prepare for earnings.

Because one way or the other, I don’t think it’s going to be boring.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1611333087539134469

 

[Gigapress]

Friday January 6th. Tesla.Com website still not updated to tell potential customers that they may be eligible for a $7500 tax credit.

Instead of posting every day saying the website hasn’t changed, please post once whenever it does change. Much more efficient use of thread space.

 

[Ogre]

To confirm, yes I think they should just remove the non-performance Y LR 5 seater from the configurator In the US under the current IRA classifications. It would still be available off menu, as they would still need to produce this variant for other markets that Tesla USA exports to like Canada, Taiwan etc. Also making the Y SR a RWD preserves enough feature differential for the Y LR AWD 7 seater to remain very attractive (more range, more seats, extra motor, better upgrade options).

There is a huge overlap between the number of people who do not qualify for the incentive and the number of people who can afford a $65,000 car. The Model Y LR is likely the most popular model in their lineup right now and is exactly the car people who do not qualify for the incentive will gravitate towards. People are still buying it now without the incentive. They aren’t going to stop unless they do not qualify for the incentive.

Your assumption is that Tesla needs to reshuffle their lineup in a big way in order to maximize how many cars they sell get the rebate. I don’t think they will do that. Strong chance the new Model 3 LR is under $55k and also strong chance they introduce a Model Y at that price point, but I seriously doubt they will make any other big efforts to accommodate this. Its far more likely they give cost conscious consumers a couple options to pick from and leave the rest of the lineup largely intact.

 

[OrthoSurg]

i would be a liar if i said that today did not potentially mark THE bottom:
#1 bears had every opportunity to take TSLA below $100. they fumbled. badly. if $101.81 is the worst damage they can do then it is likely game over for shorts.
#2 volume was 86% above average with a huge bullish engulfing pattern
#3 unless proven otherwise, i strongly suspect Tesla is following BIDU script of 2008-2009. don't hold your breath for this to happen with TSLA anytime soon but after falling from $429 to $100 over similar time frame in 2008-2009, Bidu ran up to $1600 by 2011 and 25X by 2014. clearly, this will never ever happen to TSLA because everybody knows, especially the 2 Bills (Gates and Miller) that TSLA is eminently shortable and shall be overtaken by the great General Motors
#4 technical indicators like RSI, MACD, force, stochastics all look good on daily chart
#5 weekly chart shows 2 consecutive hammers and way oversold RSI 27 or so
#5 $10+ more and yearly chart for TSLA will turn positive. yearly chart already positive for nasdaq composite, qqq, nvda, wynn, nio, xpev, lowly GM, loser F, used to be a contender AMZN etc
now, as everyone knows (or should know) that bottoming is a process which takes time
and i have tons of time
another 40 to 50 years, with any luck
can TSLA break $100 next week? absolutely!
but i would not bet on it

What do you consider more of a sign of reversal in technical analysis? A full bullish engulfing doji or a Hammer with a long bar?

 

[EVNow]

#1 bears had every opportunity to take TSLA below $100. they fumbled. badly. if $101.81 is the worst damage they can do then it is likely game over for shorts.

Not a TA - but breaking $100 is going to take some doing. Like a bad ER. There must be a ton of limit buys set at $100.

OTOH, probably a lot of stop loss too .... though I doubt it at this point.

 

[Xepa777]

People are overthinking this.

If Tesla needs to lower prices to stimulate demand they will. Right now it looks like they are doing just fine without any big changes or discounting.

Tesla doesn't have the competition in the US that they have in China and the economy here is not as bad as the Chinese economy is either.

As Musk is inclined to say: "The best discount is no discount". And that strategy seems to be working so far.

I need a !remindme one year feature when tesla lowers prices across its fleet that this is naive hopium lol.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

Simple way for Tesla to address the lack of $7500 tax credit for 5 seat Model Y AWD:

Just do the same thing they did at the end of December--offer anyone who takes delivery in January $7500 off (possibly ask to see returns and only give to people who would otherwise qualify for IRS credit); then repeat each month until the IRS classifies the car as an SUV at the $80k cap.

Gives Tesla far more margin than reducing price of the base model to $55,000 ($65,990-$55,000 is > $7500). And then people would be able to configure however they wanted w/o fear of going over the $55,000 cap (so more people would be inclined to pick other colors, etc).

Seems Tesla could cover this. Case in point:

I placed an order for the 5 seat AWD Model Y approx one year ago (Jan 14, 2022) for a total price of $60,990 (blue AWD, white seats). The same config now is $67,990 ($7000 more).

Tesla effectively baked in the $7500 credit with the insane price increases over 2022. With commodity prices dropping, wouldn't be surprised if they could drop the base price down (but the should NOT drop the base price).

They should keep the higher base price of the 5 seat AWD so that once the IRS re-classifies the car as a SUV, people get the $7500 credit on the higher base. Tesla margins shoot back up.

In other words, it would be dumb for Tesla to drop prices. Instead just offer a $7500 credit that only lasts until the IRS one kicks in.

That's nice for you but makes zero sense for Tesla. The goal is not to have Tesla give as many people as possible $7500 - it's to have the government give it to them.

 

[geometro]

Simple way for Tesla to address the lack of $7500 tax credit for 5 seat Model Y AWD:

Just do the same thing they did at the end of December--offer anyone who takes delivery in January $7500 off (possibly ask to see returns and only give to people who would otherwise qualify for IRS credit); then repeat each month until the IRS classifies the car as an SUV at the $80k cap.

Gives Tesla far more margin than reducing price of the base model to $55,000 ($65,990-$55,000 is > $7500). And then people would be able to configure however they wanted w/o fear of going over the $55,000 cap (so more people would be inclined to pick other colors, etc).

Seems Tesla could cover this. Case in point:

I placed an order for the 5 seat AWD Model Y approx one year ago (Jan 14, 2022) for a total price of $60,990 (blue AWD, white seats). The same config now is $67,990 ($7000 more).

Tesla effectively baked in the $7500 credit with the insane price increases over 2022. With commodity prices dropping, wouldn't be surprised if they could drop the base price down (but the should NOT drop the base price).

They should keep the higher base price of the 5 seat AWD so that once the IRS re-classifies the car as a SUV, people get the $7500 credit on the higher base. Tesla margins shoot back up.

In other words, it would be dumb for Tesla to drop prices. Instead just offer a $7500 credit that only lasts until the IRS one kicks in.

This sounds like a major headache…. And I can’t imagine how few people would willingly show tax forms to the people at Tesla (or anyone besides their accountant, banker and IRS).

Elon has said he’s seeing lower commodity prices, so they should lower prices and can still maintain higher margins. I’m not interested in the MY at these (US) price points.

The tricky thing is when do you lower them without irritating people that take delivery on t-1?

 

[Ogre]

This sounds like a major headache…. And I can’t imagine how few people would willingly show tax forms to the people at Tesla (or anyone besides their accountant, banker and IRS).

Elon has said he’s seeing lower commodity prices, so they should lower prices and can still maintain higher margins. I’m not interested in the MY at these (US) price points.

The tricky thing is when do you lower them without irritating people that take delivery on t-1?

I think what they did with the Model 3 makes a ton of sense. It's been off the market long enough they can return it at whatever price makes sense.

Likewise, they can probably add the Model Y AWD (or RWD) to the lineup at whatever price makes sense. If they have those lower price options out there to suck up the value customers maybe adjusting the Model Y LR and Performance prices won't be a huge issue.

 

[AudubonB]

I know it’s a few weeks out, but I saw this on my Twitter feed today and I couldn’t help but think it’s the perfect thing to watch to prepare for earnings.

Because one way or the other, I don’t think it’s going to be boring.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1611333087539134469

Checking in and breaking silence just to note - Holy Cow - I have stood exactly at that crater's 17,887-foot (5453m) high rim - and inside it - when I was in high school. The first of my many, many volcano climbs in Mexico, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, Japan, Hawaii…(oddly, none in Alaska).

Just imagine how much poorer your lives would have been had that eruption occurred three weeks and [deleted] # of years ago.

 

[ZeApelido]

Amazing analysis of how Tesla Megapacks will be profitable.

One key is this part: Tesla is the sole provider for which purchasers will qualify for the full IRA credit.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1611582193309990913