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ICE decay vs BEV adoption curves for UK. Suggests a crossover in sales for BEV vs ICE in 2025. Further details at One in three UK car sales may be fully electric by end ‘23 as S-Curve transforms market

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New AutoMotive, Carbon Tracker. Note: The individual data points show actual new sales market share. Sales are averaged over a 3-month rolling period. The S-Curves are plotted using a logistic function with the projection shown with a dashed line. ‘ICE’ is defined as all vehicles with an internal combustion engine, including hybrids.

That’s the most beautiful piece of art I have ever seen. Someone should send a framed print of it to Toyota HQ.
 
In the business section of todays (07 Jan 2023) Toronto Star, there are four Tesla “bear” stories.

Usually, the Toronto Star may have one small, three paragraph story that mentions Tesla in passing, once every six weeks or so…but today there were four stories.

All four have the same demeanour.

This is the fourth of four:

 
We just saw the bottom as I capitulated in pre market yesterday dropping enough shares at 105 to leave margin behind completely. Was certain we would we see two digits. Was feeling smart as it hit 101 lol. Macros to the rescue!

Reversal to finish positive on high volume is precisely what traders look for in bottoms, so I think the board may be less snippy for a few days going to earnings.

Overall my trading account is down 91.5 % from ATH. Despite successful hedges and endless CCs cashed. But still up 5x from where it started (whaaat?). So yeah, I margined stupidly at the wrong time (Damn those sold puts. What a black hole…). EM’s sales strategically destroyed me. They were like surgical strikes with high tech financial weapons of mass destruction.

Am I ticked at EM, the person who is more responsible for the new BEV world we are about to live in than anyone on the planet? 🤣🤣🤣Give me the BEVs, baby. That is all I signed up for, that is what I expect from him. And it is happening!

My money, my trades, my positions, my fault. I will also take the credit when I make it all back! :D😌😉
Pretty much how I feel as well. Was mentally preparing myself to hit the sell key for a portion
of my Tsla portfolio on Friday. The color green at the end of the day never looked so beautiful!
 
In the business section of todays (07 Jan 2023) Toronto Star, there are four Tesla “bear” stories.

Usually, the Toronto Star may have one small, three paragraph story that mentions Tesla in passing, once every six weeks or so…but today there were four stories.

All four have the same demeanour.

This is the fourth of four:

I’m glad I didn’t need to take a subscription to read that.
 
Is the list of things
I was going to post that, but since you did already, I will post the graphic because it’s worth everyone seeing without having to chase Twitter.

A very clear argument for $250-$300/ share value where we are now. Even if you assume 2020-2021 was a bubble.

Since EPS is likely to spike up even more in the next couple quarters, the argument will get more and more convincing.

View attachment 893409
woo hoo
but, I find the logic faulty. Absent even. not true.
 
I’m glad I didn’t need to take a subscription to read that.
This writer is a regular contributor, the “tech” story guy for the business section of the Saturday Star.

His mentions of Tesla in the past have been rather agnostic.

I just find the situation of four Tesla stories, all bear-thesis, being very unusual (almost a pile on).
 
Barron's article is a mixed bag - lots of speculation and some FUD, but lots of positives as well.

How is it that Gary Black is able to post the whole article (through a series of screen shots) when this is behind a paywall? Are there no copyright issues on posting the whole article? This basically allows people to read the article without paying for it.
 
This writer is a regular contributor, the “tech” story guy for the business section of the Saturday Star.

His mentions of Tesla in the past have been rather agnostic.

I just find the situation of four Tesla stories, all bear-thesis, being very unusual (almost a pile on).
It’s the same in the Belgian press. The newspaper I subscribe to almost never has a Tesla story that’s factually correct. It reeks like schadenfreude. That‘s the most serious newspaper in the Flemish community. The other newspapers are worse.
 
There is a huge overlap between the number of people who do not qualify for the incentive and the number of people who can afford a $65,000 car. The Model Y LR is likely the most popular model in their lineup right now and is exactly the car people who do not qualify for the incentive will gravitate towards. People are still buying it now without the incentive. They aren’t going to stop unless they do not qualify for the incentive.

Your assumption is that Tesla needs to reshuffle their lineup in a big way in order to maximize how many cars they sell get the rebate. I don’t think they will do that. Strong chance the new Model 3 LR is under $55k and also strong chance they introduce a Model Y at that price point, but I seriously doubt they will make any other big efforts to accommodate this. Its far more likely they give cost conscious consumers a couple options to pick from and leave the rest of the lineup largely intact.
Been mulling on you reply @Ogre. Not sure the theory completely lines up with the reality of what happened at the end of last quarter with Tesla needing to discount vehicles by $7500 to move units. I don’t doubt that there are many people that don’t qualify for the tax credit, but would be interesting to know how big that mega-niche of consumers are, and what sort of vehicles they are buying. Are they buying LR model Ys? Or are they mostly buying S/X or performance Ys?
 
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In the business section of todays (07 Jan 2023) Toronto Star, there are four Tesla “bear” stories.

Usually, the Toronto Star may have one small, three paragraph story that mentions Tesla in passing, once every six weeks or so…but today there were four stories.

All four have the same demeanour.

This is the fourth of four:


Tesla is the largest and most efficient / profitable EV (and other stuff in the pipeline) company in the world with its own large scale charging network in multiple countries. It's stock is currently down 72% from all time highs.

We wouldn't want regular people to be buying Tesla stock at these ridiculously lows levels now would we? Is the world transitioning back to fossil fuels? ;)

This is the time for quiet smart money accumulation. They need suckers buying near the top of the cycle so they can unload and that is when the narrative in these types of stories will change. Rinse and repeat.
 
Tesla is the largest and most efficient / profitable EV (and other stuff in the pipeline) company in the world with its own large scale charging network in multiple countries. It's stock is currently down 72% from all time highs.

We wouldn't want regular people to be buying Tesla stock at these ridiculously lows levels now would we? Is the world transitioning back to fossil fuels? ;)

This is the time for quiet smart money accumulation. They need suckers buying near the top of the cycle so they can unload and that is when the narrative in these types of stories will change. Rinse and repeat.
I never bought into the formal “MSM FUD” line of thought, but today I’m certainly pondering these stories more because they are all coming down at the same time.

Of course, ”Tesla” will gain clicks/readers, so it could all still be simply looking for a larger audience with spending little time with minimal background research.
 
Spock Musk Chess move...
Lowering the prices in China is good for sales today but...
Is it also a pre-move? I do not know the dynamics of price relation within a brand for various models but, seems as though if a "car company" has too large a jump between models then the consumer has some mental/financial gyrations that unsettle them. And thus the purchasing decisions.
Think about it... if Tesla sold a $20K car, and the next highest was a $40k car then what do consumers think, and how does it impact demand on each model?
So perhaps a $25k car is "Coming Soon" to CHina.
I would not say "Comming Soon" more like coming in 2024.
With Model 3 Highland "Comming Soon", I hope.

Tesla needs lower priced models ASAP.

And they want something in all price ranges above the base model.

I agree on the price gaps, a low priced entry level model gets the customer interested.

When the customer does their research they see that spending a bit more gets them a more suitable model. That helps sell more 3/Y despite the existence of cheaper models.

And it gets customers waiting for the cheaper models off the fence and into a 3/Y now, rather than waiting.
 
Why does everyone refer to the next generation car (robotaxi/Model 2 etc.) as third generation? Gen3 is 3 and Y.

(only 184 likes... those where the days 🤣)

Also: JB Straubel's legendary 2013 presentation at Stanford (worth watching the whole thing if youve never seen it, he even discusses recycling) where he refers to "Gen 3" as following S and X:
(20min 45sec)
 
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Why does everyone refer to the next generation car (robotaxi/Model 2 etc.) as third generation? Gen3 was 3 and Y.

Tesla's own press release for Investor Day on March 1, 2023, calls the next gen vehicle Gen 3:


"Our investors will be able to see our most advanced production line as well as discuss long term expansion plans, generation 3 platform, capital allocation and other subjects with our leadership team."
 
Why does everyone refer to the next generation car (robotaxi/Model 2 etc.) as third generation? Gen3 was 3 and Y.

Maybe it's because the definition of "generation" changed once newer vehicles were produced. In the Tweet you highlighted it seems the Model S and Model X were considered separate generations. They're now considered the same generation and grouped together as 1st generation vehicles.