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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Tesla's own press release for Investor Day on March 1, 2023, calls the next gen vehicle Gen 3:


"Our investors will be able to see our most advanced production line as well as discuss long term expansion plans, generation 3 platform, capital allocation and other subjects with our leadership team."
It's pretty clear they've forgotten their own history 🤣
 
Been mulling on you reply @Ogre. Not sure the theory completely lines up with the reality of what happened at the end of last quarter with Tesla needing to discount vehicles by $7500 to move units. I don’t doubt that there are many people that don’t qualify for the tax credit, but would be interesting to know how big that mega-niche of consumers are, and what sort of vehicles they are buying. Are they buying LR model Ys? Or are they mostly buying S/X or performance Ys?
Tesla is selling less than 50,000 Model S/X. So that’s a pretty small niche compared to total supply of Model Y.

I was a bit surprised we didn’t get price drops in the US as well, but
I would not say "Comming Soon" more like coming in 2024.
With Model 3 Highland "Comming Soon", I hope.

Tesla needs lower priced models ASAP.

And they want something in all price ranges above the base model.

I agree on the price gaps, a low priced entry level model gets the customer interested.

When the customer does their research they see that spending a bit more gets them a more suitable model. That helps sell more 3/Y despite the existence of cheaper models.

And it gets customers waiting for the cheaper models off the fence and into a 3/Y now, rather than waiting.
I think as important, Tesla needs a vehicle which they can build twice as fast.

The two are tied together. Increased production begets cheaper prices. But the production is the goal.
 
To each their own, I can see why someone likes stalks. I don't, I vastly prefer driving our yoked 2022 Model X to our stalked 2012 Model S. I think Tesla is doing an admirable job of reducing parts and clutter - there was probably a time in auto design where a new functionality led to a new part, and before you knew it, bam, 3+ stalks poking out of every steering column. Tesla is rethinking that and not everyone will like it. But the brand is built on simplicity, 'no part is the best part', etc. and so I suspect it will continue along the lines below. I welcome it.

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My "favorite" dog's-breakfast stalk complexity was the Toyota Prius windshield wiper stalk (dunno what year I had, but it was the gateway drug to my Tesla Model 3). The stalk had about 3 or 4 degrees-of-freedom (push/pull, up/down, back/forward, etc), with counter-rotating rings, detents, and time holds [temp press vs. hold?] to control everything from front/rear wipers to "intermittent mode" to speed to "mist mode" to lord-knows-what-all. Easily subject to what is called "mode error" in UI design.

Jeez, I'd rather use Tesla's automatic NNs -- while the Prius stalk stays permanently unmemorizable except for local Prius cab drivers with "muscle memory", the software should (theoretically) at least get better over time!

OK, found a video primer for it:
 
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Is the implication 4D chess?

Serious question— are there any examples of 3D or 4D chess moves by Elon & team? It’s been a while since they’ve pulled a rabbit out of a hat.

Yes, Tesla's current positioning, strong margins and growing sales are all direct evidence of the 3D chess being played by Elon and team. People who can't see that are forever stuck playing 2D chess and will never understand how difficult it is to play 3D chess, especially when there are so many in the gallery calling the Elon's gameplay a fraud while simultaneously moving the pieces whenever they think no one is looking.

The media coverage of the chess match is rigged too. Somehow, the observers moving the pieces at opportunistic times never get caught on camera because they are tipped off when a commercial is happening. Elon has stopped pointing out when an on-looker switches a piece to a different position during a commercial break because the media pretends like Elon must have imagined it and they act put-off, as if Elon is spoiked and asking for special favors when he politely points out that the pieces had been moved out of turn. And the camera position is carefully selected to make it look like there is only the top chess board so casual observers don't even understand it's actually 3D chess. This allows the commentator to tell the audience how foolish each move made by Elon and team while extolling the brilliance of moves made by his opponents.

The net result is that Elon can have his opponent in check on two of the three levels, but viewers think Elon and team are constantly at risk of being checkmated, although the reality is often that his opponents have been reduced to playing defense on every move due to Elon's strong moves on the middle and lower levels. While Elon waits for his opponents to make their next move, he uses his phone to quietly Tweet his latest thoughts to his fans to prevent boredom from setting in. This is not missed by the media because most chess players don't Tweet in the middle of an important match. They claim it's an afront to the international chess community and suggest it's a sign that he's dangerously detached from the game, that he doesn't respect its history, and that he's about to take a real licking. The media will never dare suggest it's because he's so bored with the conventional moves being made by his opponents. Remember, the media can only get away with such obvious lies because most people at home can't even see the chess board has three levels, they are focused intently on the only level captured by the cameras as if it's the only level that exists.

Right before Elon and team make the final victorious move of each match, the media will cut to a commercial break, a slick commercial extolling the virtues of his competitors' products. They focus, not on how expensive and crappy their products actually are, but the beautiful wild and unspoiled places they can take you. Sometimes they even Photoshop the tailpipe from the images so as to not remind viewers of the smelly exhaust gases emitted into the unspoiled wilderness. After the break, they will pick up on the next match as if the last one never happened. The viewers at home are none the wiser that Elon and Team won, yet another, consecutive match.

Elon and team don't get upset, they knew the game of appearances was rigged before they signed up and that the media would not be covering this as if it were a 3D chess championship but rather a game of social etiquette with the rules to be adjusted and optimized as the game was played. There will even be special powers granted to some contestants in the middle of the championship under the guise of speeding the gameplay along.

None of that ruffled the feathers of Elon and team, for they knew the only game rigged against them was the game of appearances. The actual game itself was rigged so strongly in their favor; it was almost too good to be true. They could see that, as long as they used a strategy crafted using sound reasoning, that they could not lose. Elon and team saw that their opponents had a lot of ideas about the best way to play the game that were simply wrong. They focused on the wrong things and used the wrong strategies. Much of this was due to being overly concerned with appearances. Elon's opponents knew that the board on top was the only one visible to observers at home and that caused them to make serious strategic errors, one after another. On the other hand, Elon played the game in the most optimal manner, taking all three levels into consideration before making a move, even if it caused the viewers at home to think he was doing it wrong. He had to get all three levels properly lined up before he could make his winning moves. But he didn't worry about what the people at home thought about his gameplay, he wanted to win!

In the first several matches he made some valuable observations. Initially, he was plainly offended when observers in the gallery would reach over and illegally move the pieces whenever the cameras would cut to a commercial break. However, he quickly discovered the moves were, more often than not, in his favor, once he considered the deeper implications of each move. So he started using those illegal moves to his advantage rather than complain about them. He even discovered the special powers which he at first believed unfairly rewarded his competitors were actually to his long-term advantage. He couldn't believe his luck but his competitors that had been granted special advantages started squandering them in ways that made little sense to Elon. They changed their strategies to more fully maximize those powers, but Elon could see how this actually made them weaker over time. They also tended to become lazier, the more they believed they had a competitive edge, the less they felt they needed to think through their moves as fully. Elon capitalized upon their numerous mistakes and used what his opponents believed was an unsurmountable strength, against them. He did this not by attacking them but by relentless moving his pieces into more fovorable positions, even when those moves looked foolish to viewers at home.

Observers at home began to think the championship was hopelessly stacked against Elon and team and wonder why they look so unconcerned. But Elon understands 3D chess is not about appearances, and he's not about to let his commanding lead turn into a liability, it's about making every move with your eye on the goal, getting your pieces on all 3 levels properly lined up for victory at the end.

When Elon finally wins the overall Championship, the media will say it was never a contest to begin with, but a group effort to learn more about chess and that every player contributed as much as they could to make the goal a reality. They will point out that some of the biggest contributors were those who died before the conclusion of the championship, because they tried so hard, they paid the ultimate price. That they led the movement so valiantly, that they died trying, the true heroes of chess. They will even suggest they might not have died if Elon hadn't distressed them so much by Tweeting in the middle of every match like a spoiled and uncouth youth.
 
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Why does everyone refer to the next generation car (robotaxi/Model 2 etc.) as third generation? Gen3 is 3 and Y.

(only 184 likes... those where the days 🤣)

Also: JB Straubel's legendary 2013 presentation at Stanford (worth watching the whole thing if youve never seen it, he even discusses recycling) where he refers to "Gen 3" as following S and X:
(20min 45sec)
Programmers start counting at zero. The Roadster was Gen 0, S/X Gen 1, 3/Y Gen 2.
 
It’s obvious that Tesla has the mindset of a C programmer: The Roadster was Gen 0.

Programmers start counting at zero. The Roadster was Gen 0, S/X Gen 1, 3/Y Gen 2.
So we're just going to ignore the times when Elon referred to the S/X as Gen 2 and the next vehicle as Gen 3? Did he forget that he was a programmer?
 
So we're just going to ignore the times when Elon referred to the S/X as Gen 2 and the next vehicle as Gen 3? Did he forget that he was a programmer?
If I had to say, I would guess the Next generation is based on their 3rd iteration of a production system, rater than the type of model.

The original roadster was the gen 1 Tesla car, but they didn’t really have much in the way of a production system for it (lotus built the chassis, much of what tesla did to it after that was hand built IIRC).

Model S at Fremont was the first proper production system, that was shared with the X.

Model 3/Y was the 2nd generation which was designed for something like an order of magnitude difference in scale.

The “3rd generation” / “next generation” is the next production system for presumably a whole swarth of vehicle designs that will be a step change up in efficiency than the model 3/y production system is. (No idea whether the CT is considered part of this, or if that is a unique offshoot given the folded steel etc.)

(I actually think the Berlin & Austin Y lines maybe should be considered a “2.5” generation given the Gigacastings)