InTheShadows
Active Member
And the feds are talking today.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
So we don't know what's going to happen this year, so we better lay off some workers to be proactive, (which causes more doubt in the system)...then later in the year "see, we knew there would be a recession!"
Bah-hahahaha.
ByeByeJohnny
Active Member
I'm actually impressed how fast some of these big companies does it.Why does it take nearly a month to calculate finances every quarter? Um, Excel... macro?
Do people actually use computers in Finance, or still manual data entry? Or is it all the freakin paperwork to file with the Feds? Wait... maybe it's so companies have at least 3 weeks to tweak the message and spin the data. This is a non-value added step to production, what's the deal? Maybe Tesla should look into this waste.
Our little $1 million company has to wait several weeks after a months end just to be sure all invoices from suppliers are accounted for.
Sure we have an excel sheet for internal numbers that are somewhat exact immediatly but there are months when we are off enough for it to be significant.
I get it, I'm married to a Master Planner. Corporate numbers are complicated. But that's because it STILL involves humans even in a perfect SRP candy world.Management typically has a near instantaneous view of what's happening with respect to business and finances. However, it is an entirely different matter to present the information to investors. One of these days, it might be instructional to pick up and read some quarterly or annual reports that drop soon after earnings. There is also liability and reputational risk if these are not done right. So there is rightfully, there are several checks and balances in place.
It is clearly not some small business where you can tally up all your revenue and expenses in a couple of hours.
edit: I hope @The Accountant doesnt blow a gasket looking at your comment.
The function that allows Management to see the numbers quickly is the source data speaking. Checks and balances you mention are much like Quality checks before shipping the Product, plus the form filings which are outside. In the purest system, the monitors go away, especially whenever it does not add value to the end Product.
Fortunately, it doesn't necessarily add to Product TPT, and it could be that very few resources are "wasted" and it's more calendar time to adjust ship course and communicate the message both internally and externally. Humans are still good at that part, but I suspect Tesla would rather just have no report (ie private).
No question in my mind there is waste in the 3 weeks I speak of, but I was half joking about it taking 3 weeks, bc I WANT TO SEE THEM NOW! Maybe we should give finance 3 yrs to post results? /s
Another article from a top-notch strategy analyst. This one is regarding AI and the big tech companies:
AI and the Big Five
Given the success of existing companies with new epochs, the most obvious place to start when thinking about the impact of AI is with the big five: Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft.
stratechery.com
...still don't understand where this is going, though I'm surprised Dojo and Tesla has no place in this article. To me, it's like everyone in tech vs. Musk Enterprises?
Just the F150. The CT is not a 3/4 or 1 ton truck. However, the F150 is the top seller.
ElectricIAC
Good-Natured Rascal
All good points, Gigapress, and superior manufacturing may enable Tesla to reap higher margins. But superior enough to maintain 30% margins going forward against a ramping competitor? 20% ? Lower?
BYD is both a proven fast copier, and a proven innovator (e.g. , their blade battery). Where BYD and Tesla will be in terms of margin over the next several years is…speculative.
My money is on TSLA. Not BYD. But I’ve taken some of my money off the table.
Another article from a top-notch strategy analyst. This one is regarding AI and the big tech companies:
AI and the Big Five
Given the success of existing companies with new epochs, the most obvious place to start when thinking about the impact of AI is with the big five: Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft.
...still don't understand where this is going, though I'm surprised Dojo and Tesla has no place in this article. To me, it's like everyone in tech vs. Musk Enterprises?
As a follow-up:
Text became the most common lever by which mankind would later induce computers to do their bidding.
Roon guest-authors a post on large language models and the future of computing.
scale.com
Once anyone starts using Tesla's library of real-world 3D mapping (and if Tesla makes a [paid
] API available let's say...)...where does generative AI go?
cliff harris
Member
That kind of stuff drives me insane as both an investor, and a coder. The difference between 'a general solution to AI-powered driving' and 'heavily limited and geofenced and speed-restricted and weather restricted 'self-driving' for this 10 meter path of perfect road' is just ridiculous.Interesting headline on Mercedes getting there L3 approval in Nevada. Not so much when you dig into it a bit. Lots of comments on various threads indicating how they beat tesla to level 3 blah blah blah. Ugh.
Mercedes Is The First Automaker To Offer Level 3 Self-Driving In The US
At CES 2023, Mercedes announced that its Drive Pilot system has been approved by the state of Nevada for Level 3 autonomous driving.insideevs.com
I think at some point we will see the true limitations of the geofenced lidar approaches of the other manufacturers. You can weather/speed/location/time limit your little case study as much as you want, at some point, something totally unexpected will happen, and unless you have a general solution, your self driving cars are going to kill the occupants, and some pedestrians. The only reason this isn't widespread yet is because of the tiny tiny scale of these efforts, in term of miles driven.
Geofencing and other limits is basically local-maxima hunting on purpose. Such a silly dead-end.
That being said (to quote rob maurer)
I would like to see the boring company switch to true driverless in the las vegas loop. It feels like something that would be super easy to do, and would be a huge PR win for Tesla in the minds of people who don't pay attention to this stuff. Plus a great bit of general marketing and PR and will give the average joe confidence in Teslas ultimate FSD goal.
I'd love to see someone on the Q4 call ask Elon why they don't do this.
I'm a bad one to ask. I'm aware of how important the numbers are but it's frustrating seeing so much effort going into a non-productive activity. Probably why I'm not a finance guy.
+1 I've been banging that drum for a while. Seems like a win/win for all involved. Show off Tesla's ability, save the city money, and make Boring tunnels even cheaper vs conventional systems.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Because The Boring Company is owned by Elon, not by Tesla? Why would Tesla answer a question about a private company on their company's earnings call?
I'm sure they'll do that when Tesla deems it safe and bug free. The implication is that they're not there yet. Whether it's due to driving, parking, onboarding, or any other number of aspects is anyone's guess.
Captkerosene
Member
Tesla's big problem is momentum .... when people were optimistic, the sky was the limit for this company. Unfortunately, people are far less optimistic about everything right now and momentum stocks tend to get crushed, as we have. There is no arguing that momentum played a HUGE part in getting TSLA to it's ATH.
We all get this, but we all (except Buffett) continue to make the same mistake. Why? Ans: Because we've been trained for however long humans have been around to act that way. What do we do when we don't have enough information to make a good decision? We look around to see what everyone else is doing. Follow the crowd is the right thing to do 99% of the time. To use a car metaphor, imagine you're going down a busy highway with limited visibility ahead. Cars ahead in your lane all put their turn signals on to move to the adjacent lane. What do we do? ... change lanes. We assume that they have information we're not aware of and act before we even know why they acted. Investors basically are like a big school of fish. We act in unison as a way of avoiding being eaten. Trouble is, that strategy doesn't work in investing. The "average" investor gets returns under the rate of inflation. The profits go to those few who have good information, the ability to value things and the temperament to act in opposition to the majority.
Here at TMC we are the few ... and we have the information. Every little idea gets debated to death. (The prospects for and value of Megapack is understood better here than at the offices of fund managers with 100X times the money.) Fund managers don't spend hours every day thinking about one company. TSLA is one of the most difficult stocks to understand and value ... that's to our advantage. They're the followers. That's why many have sold ... the school zigged left and they want to stay with the pack.
I'm buying more today.
Is the FSD approach even possible in those tunnels? Side repeater cams only see white walls, front cameras only see a small black triangle ("black road going near a point") on a white background.
Car is surrounded with white surfaces and lacks sufficient information to recreate a 3D space.
A different stack or maybe a 2D line guide system should already be enough (autopilot v1) to successfully drive through the tunnels.
9000-ton IDRA press going to Asia? Some speculation it’s for a 1-piece casting for the sub-compact:
Maybe that's what the 9000 ton is for in Austin?
Did Tesla ever confirm that it was for the Cybertruck? I thought we have seen leaked images from the Cyber truck mules with castings....
If it isn't for Cybertruck then I would guess our doors are going to be (figuratively) blown off during the "Investor day" meeting with the introduction of a new smaller model available very soon.
thesmokingman
Active Member
"ready for shipping on its way to Asia."
Hmm, how big or small could this car be? Imagine... it would be awesome if most of the car could be a single casting. Can yall imagine? Press them out like HotWheels? The scaling, profits, structural awesomeness?
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Because Tesla is currently the sole vehicle supplier to the Boring Company?
Because if Tesla ever does accomplish robotaxi deployment, the Vegas Loop is almost certainly going to be the first location it gets implemented?
Because if Boring Co makes it big then that has huge positive ramifications for Tesla’s brand, marketing, and recruiting, for many of the same reasons as SpaceX and Neuralink?
Because Las Vegas gets 40 million visitors per year and the first phase of the Loop when built out is expected to have a peak capacity of 50k passengers per hour and will probably give on the order of 10 to 100 MILLION Tesla robotaxi rides per year to on the order of 1 to 10 million unique riders?
That being said, it might be better to announce the eventual switch to driverless Loop service in a different venue, probably at a Boring Co event with Clark County and Las Vegas officials alongside Elon and the Boring CEO. It is certainly relevant to Tesla’s business prospects and is a lot more important than most of the questions that get asked on the earnings calls.
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