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Pre-market is already crashing, either they expect Jpow to sour the milk or some inside info leaked into Wall Street.
-what we are doing is working, but inflation is still at elevates levels

-economy is doing fine, tracking for soft landing

-rates will stay elevated for awhile until inflation is tracking to 2%

-terminal rate is tracking to be at 5+%

Market then crashes because no fed pivot to decrease rates
 
-what we are doing is working, but inflation is still at elevates levels

-economy is doing fine, tracking for soft landing

-rates will stay elevated for awhile until inflation is tracking to 2%

-terminal rate is tracking to be at 5+%

Market then crashes because no fed pivot to decrease rates
So basically the same as always and the market is completely shocked! It's like the market sets itself up every time for JPow to land on an aircraft carrier with a big "Mission Accomplished" banner. I'm still calling for sub 100 TSLA brought down my macros.
 
My working theory is Jpow purposefully creates negative sentiment every time he speaks, as he really wants to decimate the market and economy to the point where the Fed needs to make a sudden emergency U-turn in order to "save" it all.

If you notice, whenever he says something and the market reacts positively, he immediately says something sharply negative to axe it before it takes hold. I think its an accident whenever he says something and the market thinks its a positive.

He says he'd like a soft landing but in my opinion his actions speak otherwise.

Either way, we are along for the ride for now, and we'll see in an hour how he feels this morning. :cool:
Jpow as no credibility. From the transitory inflation fable, to now jaw boning the mkt at very opportunity
to create a negative wealth effect. Once unemployment goes up, congress will be putting pressure on
him to stop hurting people.

He would rather hurt the stock mkt to curb demand than see higher unemployment.
 
Jpow as no credibility. From the transitory inflation fable, to now jaw boning the mkt at very opportunity
to create a negative wealth effect. Once unemployment goes up, congress will be putting pressure on
him to stop hurting people.

He would rather hurt the stock mkt to curb demand than see higher unemployment.
This congress?
 
Jpow's speech was released early before he actually spoke, judging by the market movement in the past few minutes Wall Street seems to like it?

 
Jpow's speech was released early before he actually spoke, judging by the market movement in the past few minutes Wall Street seems to like it?

No discussion on the outlook for the US economy or interest rate policy in his prepared remarks. So a bit of a nothing burger for the market so far and TSLA seems to be recovering. Now we need to break the resistance at $123 before we can push on towards $138-140.

 
We have held a fair number of TLSA shares since 2014 with a few top ups along the way. Only the extra shares we bought recently 'on the way down' are underwater at present.

We still have faith in Tesla and believe it is performing well and is fundamentally sound so we'll HODL...
I'm far from an expert so my thoughts are gut reaction and not diligently calculated on a mainframe!

I feel that the precipitous share price drop was partially caused by the macro-environment; partly by the Twitter shenanigans; partly by manipulation but also by investors who were well ahead in profit and took fright so cashed in on the way down. This became a self-fulfilling prophesy - snowball down a hill. Also aggravated by TSLA hitting an unsustainable silly high just as this all started!

But I believe strongly that the main problem has been (for now) that Tesla has lost its Stardust/Golden Glitter for many outsiders. Even though it missed many (smaller) targets along the way, it was seen by the average person in the street and many investors as performing Magic and being intriguing.

But not now! We know that it is 'consolidating' and pursuing the best cost options but it appears to have 'lost the plot' - Cybertruck dropped from view and late; ditto the Semi and Roadster; revised Model S/X too similar; FSD constantly being called out as disappointing (even by Tesla Bulls); price drops to match variable demand; Elon's antics and Twitter distraction; nothing 'new' and exciting to see and so on. Where's the Magic?!

Just a normal car company with a bonkers CEO who's always elsewhere - to uninformed outsiders and stupid analysts who just run with the pack.

We'll sit back with some popcorn watching the mad ride and HODL
 
How'd one calculate the customer acquisition cost?

If they are making a profit on the Vegas Loop, then acquisition cost is a profit centre.

Do people really have a hard time understanding that the The Boring Company is not Tesla? It doesn't matter if The Boring Company is making a profit, or losing money, on each ride. Any person that decides to buy a Tesla after a ride cost Tesla nothing.
 
We have held a fair number of TLSA shares since 2014 with a few top ups along the way. Only the extra shares we bought recently 'on the way down' are underwater at present.

We still have faith in Tesla and believe it is performing well and is fundamentally sound so we'll HODL...
I'm far from an expert so my thoughts are gut reaction and not diligently calculated on a mainframe!

I feel that the precipitous share price drop was partially caused by the macro-environment; partly by the Twitter shenanigans; partly by manipulation but also by investors who were well ahead in profit and took fright so cashed in on the way down. This became a self-fulfilling prophesy - snowball down a hill. Also aggravated by TSLA hitting an unsustainable silly high just as this all started!

But I believe strongly that the main problem has been (for now) that Tesla has lost its Stardust/Golden Glitter for many outsiders. Even though it missed many (smaller) targets along the way, it was seen by the average person in the street and many investors as performing Magic and being intriguing.

But not now! We know that it is 'consolidating' and pursuing the best cost options but it appears to have 'lost the plot' - Cybertruck dropped from view and late; ditto the Semi and Roadster; revised Model S/X too similar; FSD constantly being called out as disappointing (even by Tesla Bulls); price drops to match variable demand; Elon's antics and Twitter distraction; nothing 'new' and exciting to see and so on. Where's the Magic?!

Just a normal car company with a bonkers CEO who's always elsewhere - to uninformed outsiders and stupid analysts who just run with the pack.

We'll sit back with some popcorn watching the mad ride and HODL
Saw the same happen tp Apple on its first run to $700, then lost half its value with fear
of the competition is coming, and eventually the stock went up maybe 10 fold (lost count) in the
following years.
 
That's an interesting idea, it would line up with the Highland M3 timeline well too.

It really doesn't line up with switching Model 3 production to a front casting: that's TWO, not ONE.

If you take the pop-culture reference to "Highlander" literally, then that would mean a single casting for the entire car underbody structure. That can be only "Model 2" (sic) or more properly, the "compact car".

CT will NOT have a single casting, it'll have 2 (including a giant rear casting which we've already seen in pictures)
 
Yes, they would. IDRA/L.K. supply globally. OTOH, implementing one fo these required essentially a new factory and serious expertise in metallurgy and several other subjects. Therefore those really gigantic presses are going to OEM's with both financial and technical skills plus need for new vehicles and new factories.

The resources of the OEM is the issue, not protectionism.
Anyway, the entire process is at minimum three years from order to installation and use.
IDRA supply globally but that does not change the fact that a new product that is co-developed with an external partner would be available on the free market immediately. It would be bad business practice to have this being the case. I would imagine the 9000T press would make it as generally available product in time. I would agree that the use barriers for this product are substantial and unlikely to have generated a non-TESLA order in this time scale.
 
Well sometimes people need a dose of reality. Tesla is a great company but the downplaying of the issues in China are amazing.
maybe list the "China issues" with facts ? that would be contributing versus parroting narrative fallacies
Tesla had a supply/demand imbalance in December and they have corrected prices in January ... what else ?

you wont see MSM quoting Tesla China and the price transparency model ... because it does not fit the narrative ...
 
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JPow speaking at 9AM. Hope he's not looking to spoil our fun again.

Fun!

TSLA.2023-01-10.09-30.png
 
Do people really have a hard time understanding that the The Boring Company is not Tesla? It doesn't matter if The Boring Company is making a profit, or losing money, on each ride. Any person that decides to buy a Tesla after a ride cost Tesla nothing.

I'm actually having a difficult time finding where Tesla incurred the expense to acquire the customer to purchase one of their vehicles.

Tesla sold the cars to Boring Company, so they incurred a profit. Boring Company is using those cars to do ride-hailing/service. Boring Company might have done "competitive research" to identify which cars to buy, as its a completely different company, and ended up with Tesla because the feature set fits what they want to do.

...did Tesla need to work on an app or software for Boring Company?
 
So you agree - that we have seen the new giant casting for the Cybertruck?!

That's what I was alluding to, it already exists, so this is for a new product (obvious speculation though)
The CT prototype was 5 lost foam castings joined together per Sandy Munro's analysis.
It was not a single piece from a 9000 press.
Further, IDRA can't cast in house. If that was the first time a CS 9000 was assembled, the first casting it ever makes will occur at Austin.

 
I have no idea what it matters that people are seeing various old prices for Cybertrucks. I have language in my order agreement to the effect that pricing will be determined later, that the sample pricing given on the website back then was not binding in any way.

I ordered in mid-2020, so maybe before that things were different?
I ordered at launch and I believe it was the same then. Most discussion since then more or less agrees that the truck pricing was subject to change, but perhaps FSD pricing was locked in.
My working theory is Jpow purposefully creates negative sentiment every time he speaks, as he really wants to decimate the market and economy to the point where the Fed needs to make a sudden emergency U-turn in order to "save" it all.
:cool:
It's "cheaper" for him to sound Hawkish and talk the markets down than it is for him to actually do something with policy. Even if they are preparing to slow or even pivot, they will keep talking like this to keep everyone from getting too excited.
 
So you agree - that we have seen the new giant casting for the Cybertruck?!
Yes, and I further speculate that this casting was produced on a 8,000 ton Gigapress that was already installed at Giga Texas by the time this picture was published on Dec 19, 2022:

tesla-cybertruck-body.2022-12-19.jpeg

That's what I was alluding to, it already exists, so this is for a new product (obvious speculation though)

Indeed, to me it feels like a pop-culture reference to the Highlander movie would be more suited to a vehicle with a single structural casting. Now that's further speculation, but I think Model 3/Y continue with f/r castings, as does CT, and that only leaves one other choice: "Model 2" (obviously not the real name) a.k.a. the Compact Car.

Cheers!
 
It's "cheaper" for him to sound Hawkish and talk the markets down than it is for him to actually do something with policy. Even if they are preparing to slow or even pivot, they will keep talking like this to keep everyone from getting too excited.
Exactly this. The last thing the fed wants before inflation hits their targets is for everyone to celebrate by buying loads more assets.
 
Jpow as no credibility. From the transitory inflation fable, to now jaw boning the mkt at very opportunity
to create a negative wealth effect. Once unemployment goes up, congress will be putting pressure on
him to stop hurting people.

He would rather hurt the stock mkt to curb demand than see higher unemployment.
Just 6 months ago the discussion was wrapped around whether or not the White House thought we needed a new definition for a recession. That should have been a good indicator to sell some shares in hindsight.


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