Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Thekiwi]

Well there goes the theory about the 4680 Model Y AWD being priced below $55k to get the credit

So much for the theory that Tesla needs to drop prices to move product. That’s a higher price then it was before. I’d think if they were going to drop it below $55k they’d have taken it down at least a little before putting it back out there.

It seems to me most would just step up to the long range. Who cares what battery is in it.

Jmho.

They cant price the 4680 Model Y SR much lower than the LR for the simple reason that they cant make them in anywhere large enough quantities to fulfill orders If they did. Effectively Tesla has to make it as unattractive a price as possible to only move 1.000 cars a week (the current production pace of 4680 per the last official announcement a couple weeks back) - hence the pricing being just a little under the LR price.

In other words if they priced the 4680 Y at $55k (presumably a RWD version) - the wait time would almost instantly extend into 2024, and LR Y sales in USA would suffer.

However if they were to release a Model Y SR based using 2170 cells then they would not have the same issue as those cells are in plentiful supply (Not that I am predicting that will happen - instead I think we will see the 4680 AWD Y slowly decrease in price in line with production ramp of 4680.)

 

[Ogre]

They cant price the 4680 Model Y SR much lower than the LR for the simple reason that they cant make them in anywhere large enough quantities to fulfill orders If they did. Effectively Tesla has to make it as unattractive a price as possible to only move 1.000 cars a week (the current production pace of 4680 per the last official announcement a couple weeks back) - hence the pricing being just a little under the LR price.

Since the car is off-menu, they can price it whatever they want and there is never a waiting list.

 

[Thekiwi]

Since the car is off-menu, they can price it whatever they want and there is never a waiting list.

IF it was $55k and still “off menu” everyone would still know about it, being ~$20k cheaper than a LR Y(after the IRA tax credit) would have a rather large viral word of mouth impact.

 

[thesmokingman]

Great video on the Tesla Semi. Goes into the economics of the Semi.

That's interesting, he projected a break even for independent operators at a Semi cost of 250K at 4 years. And after that fuel savings will be profit, cha ching!

 

[TSLA Siempre]

we

I happen to be looking for cars on Hertz today. Model 3 is the very first car they show you. Can't buy that sort of promotion! (without a lot of money - usually) Model Y is also easy to find

What happened to the huge order that Hertz placed for Teslas?

Hertz Buying 100,000 Teslas in $4.2 Billion Deal, Making EVs 20 Percent of Its Fleet

Tesla CEO Elon Musk denies there's a contract with Hertz and says the rental giant will pay full price for cars. Hertz says it has an 'initial order' and has already started taking delivery of Teslas.

www.caranddriver.com

Do we have confirmation that Tesla delivered all of them? Just wondering in the context of higher inventory lately.

 

[Ogre]

Edmunds demonstrates beyond a doubt who they are in the pool with.

They know the truth and try to proactively suppress it.

But the post is of course pounded by replies saying exactly that.

I guess Edmunds has to work a little harder to earn a buck from GM now.

 

[growler23]

That's interesting, he projected a break even for independent operators at a Semi cost of 250K at 4 years. And after that fuel savings will be profit, cha ching!

I believe it has been noted before, but as these Semis start to ship in quantity, when your competitor has one, you will have to have one, or you die. There is no way any other efficiencies will be able to make up for your competitor's huge cost advantage.
Nice market to be selling trucks in.

 

[MartinAustin]

we


What happened to the huge order that Hertz placed for Teslas?

Hertz Buying 100,000 Teslas in $4.2 Billion Deal, Making EVs 20 Percent of Its Fleet

Tesla CEO Elon Musk denies there's a contract with Hertz and says the rental giant will pay full price for cars. Hertz says it has an 'initial order' and has already started taking delivery of Teslas.

www.caranddriver.com

Do we have confirmation that Tesla delivered all of them? Just wondering in the context of higher inventory lately.

The 100,000 is just a number in an announcement by Hertz. There was never any agreement with Tesla. They're just ordering the cars bit by bit, and receiving them bit by bit. For all we know, Hertz may have shrunk their intended BEV fleet size to 75,000 vehicles and not announced that (very, very unlikely) or they have increased their target fleet size to 300,000 vehicles and are still ordering

 

[gabeincal]

The 100,000 is just a number in an announcement by Hertz. There was never any agreement with Tesla. They're just ordering the cars bit by bit, and receiving them bit by bit. For all we know, Hertz may have shrunk their intended BEV fleet size to 75,000 vehicles and not announced that (very, very unlikely) or they have increased their target fleet size to 300,000 vehicles and are still ordering

Anecdotal, but I've seen an unusual number of rental 3s and Ys in the Bay Area.

 

[capster]

NotaModBut…. There is a thread for TBC. EOM

PS: @googlepeakoil

The progress of the Boring Company is relevant to Tesla as an investment. It doesn’t take that much imagination to see why. Not that I see a need to talk about every little thing about the company here (though I wish there was more hard information about what’s cooking with them).

 

[Nocturnal]

The progress of the Boring Company is relevant to Tesla as an investment. It doesn’t take that much imagination to see why. Not that I see a need to talk about every little thing about the company here (though I wish there was more hard information about what’s cooking with them).

IMHO as long as it's in reference to Boring being a customer of, and showcase for, Tesla vehicles and especially any hints on progress towards autonomy it fits.

 

[ggr]

IMHO as long as it's in reference to Boring being a customer of, and showcase for, Tesla vehicles and especially any hints on progress towards autonomy it fits.

Mod: exactly, which is why the posts are still here. On topic (mostly) and not enough of them to be intrusive or to justify moving them out. Please keep it that way . --ggr

 

[BornToFly]

I'm very frustrated with the refund on my Roadster reservation. I sent them a copy of a voided check, as instructed, on Dec. 22nd. Last week they told me the money had been wired, and I should have received it yesterday. Today I called, and was told the money has not been wired. They are still working on it and it will probably be two more weeks. That means a month to get my deposit back.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I just put the mods out of work. Sorry mods! (or maybe "you are welcome"?)

The Boring Company is a tunnel construction company that was founded by Elon Musk, who is also the CEO of Tesla. While the Boring Company's work may be interesting and innovative, it may not be directly relevant to the financial performance or future prospects of Tesla. Therefore, discussing the details of the Boring Company's tunnels in a forum for Tesla investors may not be considered on-topic or important for those interested in analyzing and discussing the investment potential of Tesla.

As a public company, Tesla is required to disclose any financial or operational ties it has to other companies, so if there is any material impact of the Boring Company on Tesla's financial statements, it would be required to be reported in the company's financial filings.

Furthermore, as a Tesla investor, one would be more interested in Tesla’s production, sales, and deliveries, financial performance and guidance, research and development progress, and future plans, and these are the key aspects investors would like to discuss. The Boring Company's tunneling work, while interesting, may not have a significant impact on those aspects of the business, and therefore may not be considered important to discuss in a forum for Tesla investors.

This is not to say that discussion about Boring Company is not interesting but it's more likely to be relevant for infrastructure or construction industry investment forum rather than a forum for Tesla investors.

-chatgpt

I’m having a hard time figuring out which smack down of the post is better, mine or ChatGPT’s. Mine is much more succinct, but ChatGPT twists the knife in deep.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

It would be nice if there was a way for the community to help moderate this thread, eg have an off topic reaction and if it gets N of those it gets removed (or maybe just hidden for a mod's final judgement). Just like you need a minimum reaction score to start reacting to other posts, maybe there is a threshold for being able to mark as off topic to prevent trolls from wreaking havoc.

 

[Cosmacelf]

It would be nice if there was a way for the community to help moderate this thread, eg have an off topic reaction and if it gets N of those it gets removed (or maybe just hidden for a mod's final judgement). Just like you need a minimum reaction score to start reacting to other posts, maybe there is a threshold for being able to mark as off topic to prevent trolls from wreaking havoc.

Not trying to tout other platforms, but places like Reddit have such tools. On large threads, you don’t get shown downvoted threads by default, but you can open them up if you really want to.

It wouldn’t be hard to do the same here. When a post has more downvotes than positive reactions (after some minimum of total reactions like 5), then you’d just see a placeholder, and you’d have to expand it to see it. It is possible that the forum software even has something like this, but TMC hasn’t turned it on (yet).

 

[Skryll]

I'm very frustrated with the refund on my Roadster reservation. I sent them a copy of a voided check, as instructed, on Dec. 22nd. Last week they told me the money had been wired, and I should have received it yesterday. Today I called, and was told the money has not been wired. They are still working on it and it will probably be two more weeks. That means a month to get my deposit back.

Anna working the department

 

[Thekiwi]

I'm very frustrated with the refund on my Roadster reservation. I sent them a copy of a voided check, as instructed, on Dec. 22nd. Last week they told me the money had been wired, and I should have received it yesterday. Today I called, and was told the money has not been wired. They are still working on it and it will probably be two more weeks. That means a month to get my deposit back.

Know that your one month sacrifice in wait time has contributed to a better quarter end cash balance to be reported in a couple weeks.

 

[Thekiwi]

A “….& the Investment World” post for this thread.

Last year’s -18.1% S&P500 return was good for the 7th worst annual performance since 1928.

Here is a chart of the following 1, 3, 5 & 7 year following performances of the S&P500 following the 10 worst years since 1928:

The 1 year performance is a crap shoot with 50/50 positive/negative instances, but the 3,5 & 7 year returns are nice in most cases.

The other thing that jumps out is that although this is a list of the 10 individual worst annual returns - 4 of the years belong to 2 year periods of horrible returns: ‘73 & ‘74, and ‘01 & ‘02.

 

[Singuy]

Tesla's gross margins are more impacted by production ramp than price. Berlin/Texas were money furnaces that killed gross margin.

Gross margin peaked at 32.9% Q1 2022 with 3/Y ASP at 53k. Prior to this, gm was over 30%+ from q3 and q4 2021 when a Model Y LR was priced at around 52k. However when production drops and adding in Berlin/Texas, we see that gm tanked to 27% in q2 2022 even tho Tesla prioritized high trim cars that Q with 3/Y asp being at 56k (recall that you will receive your car sooner if you add wheels, paint, or upgrade to P models). Q3 ASP dropped down to 53k, however GM stayed flat due to Berlin/Texas being the money furnace that they are, but shanghai efficiencies were back.

So with commodity prices coming down and shipping cost coming way down, I don't know where people are getting "gross margins will be slightly above 20%" from if Tesla drop prices. Once FX + Berlin/Texas drag goes away, Tesla can maintain 30% gross margin without a problem going forward especially when the IRA is paying Tesla. Tesla can finally actually recognize some of those 63k/car kind of revenue vs trying to fullfill backlogs with people who ordered at a lower price like a year ago.