When drag from Berlin and Austin goes away, it will be replaced by other ramping production lines. So long as we have 50% growth and 1 year long ramps that dictates that at any point in time (on average) 50% of the production lines will be in an inefficient state of ramping.
Fair point, and the maximum drag to GM% from ramp effect in recent years is of the order of 5% :
If it is 'only' a 5% drag due to ramp effect then that on its own is no big deal. However if there is reason to think that overall GM% margins will become compressed due to selling price (ARPV) being reduced in order to maintain the volume ramp as competition becomes more of a factor, then that inevitably will lead to less attractive financials.
Whether (if) that combined effect might cause Tesla GM% to fall to 20% or 10% or whatever other number you want to pick is not something we can foresee at this point. Except to the extent that we believe that other auto companies are
at best at an approx (say) 5-10% GM% disadvantage to Tesla. I pick 5-10% GM discount because I cannot quickly find a GM% table for the other major automakers, but here is one for NM% that I think is still representative for all (except Tesla) and we can compare that with Tesla's current position. So Tesla is at approx 15% NM in 2022 (my detail forecast is 15.7%) and the 5-year data for other auto makers is showing tops of 7%. ( I know
@The Accountant keeps good data on the other OEM GM% so maybe he can chip in if these corresponding NM numbers are no longer representative).
Being forced to look at NM% rather than GM% due to a data shortcut is not entirely a bad thing. After all NM% is pretty close to cash flow, and lack of cash is what drives bankruptcies. Setting aside operating leverage effects this suggests that if a price war were ever to fully break out, then
the best competitors would be at breakeven (0% NM) when Tesla would be at 7% NM even with the 'handicap' of funding a 50% yoy manufacturing ramp;
and many not-so-good competitors would be operating in that environment at
-5% NM losses.
I personally think that the correct thing for Tesla to do is to go after the volume ramp at the maximum rate possible, however if the scenario of concern does come to pass, then it will inevitably hit TSLA valuation. Well, at least for a few years until all the competitors go bust .... then get bailed out ....
The expansion drag effect should persist at least until the end of this decade. In my modelling I assume that a S-curve kicks in with decellerating auto growth for Tesla later in the decade. That ought to be beneficial in respect of ramp drag at that point, except that non-automotive ramp is becoming much more significant in those years (at least in the Tesla-base case, where energy needs to be ramping strongly). So that ramp drag is something investors need to live with for a long time to come, even if it might be a bit patchy occasionally.