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“Pasadena police are investigating the crash, but officials believe the driver of the Tesla accidentally pressed on the gas instead of the brake pedal, plowing through a retaining wall and winding up in the swimming pool.”

Yes, pressing "the gas" was a decision not well thought through.
Pools are meant for winding down.
 
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Yes, pressing "the gas" was a decision not well thought through.
Pools are meant for winding down.
And then built a feature to stop this from happening...


The below was the crash that inspired the spec for wrong pedal press in 2015. This was only about 2 miles from my former house prior to moving to Fremont to work for Tesla.

 
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In case anyone is wondering if Warren Buffet (aka Berkshire Hathaway) will invest in Tesla.

BH owns the 2nd largest auto dealership network in the US. If that little tidbit doesn't put the discussion to bed, I don't know what will.

 
FYI - a negative news story which might be a drag tomorrow.

Video footage of Tesla FSD failing miserably (changing lanes and braking in a clear multi lane tunnel) and causing a 9 car nose-to-tail.

Oh no!!! How am I going to cope with the stock going down tomorrow after an already 75% crash?
 
This is four hours old!!! Nobody posted it yet. Front page CNBC by Loada Bologny -
It cracks me up, Tesla is expanding the factory again to add a cell manufacturing plant, making them the second EV cell manufacturer in the US and giving them huge cost savings. The plant is now producing 3,000 trucks a week And CNBC runs this as one of the top bullet points:

  • In May 2022, after Tesla opened up its Austin factory, and another vehicle assembly plant outside of Berlin in Germany, CEO Elon Musk called both facilities “gigantic money furnaces.”
This is one of the most significant things about this expansion?

WSJ coverage is just as bad. Makes it sound like Tesla is going bankrupt and this is some sort of desperation move.

Send your clicks to Teslarati, in this case their coverage is better. Not only lacks the negative slant, it has more details.

According to the Austin Business Review (paywalled), which initially spotted the filings, the projects will provide Tesla with 1.4 million additional square feet on-site at Gigafactory Texas, and construction could start as soon as the end of the month.

The total cost for the four new facilities is $716,700,000, with the bulk of the expenditure coming from the construction of the “Cell 1” facility, which is set to cost $368,000,000. The Cathode building is $216,000,000, while the Drive Unit and Cell Test Lab buildings will cost $85,000,000 and $3,700,000, respectively.
 
what if the weighted defeat device pulled the wheel to the left as soon as Autopilot shut off?
Then Autopilot just disengaging upon detecting a weighted defeat device is probably not appropriate if it can potentially send the vehicle careening into an adjacent lane, and they would work to build in a better solution like countering the detected torque and keeping the vehicle in the current lane after the system disengages.

If anything, a system like Autopilot or more
passive features should prevent such an accident from happening in spite of driver (or defeat device) input. The system has AI-powered eyes in front and in rear, it saw vehicles closing in on the rear bumper but nothing ahead of it, so how about actually accelerating ahead when it detected an imminent rear collision?

If you’re in a middle lane flanked by vehicles on both sides and you crank the wheel hard right or left, why not have the system detect it and stop you from turning into your neighbours?
 
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FYI - a negative news story which might be a drag tomorrow.

Video footage of Tesla FSD failing miserably (changing lanes and braking in a clear multi lane tunnel) and causing a 9 car nose-to-tail.

This looks similar to Neil Bidet ( :p ) writing style: deliberately mixing up terms FSD & AutoPilot just to confuse readers and give the impression that FSD is causing all these accidents. Usage of the words NHTSA, Elon, investigation out of context, provide some unrelated events and present them as causality and you have a new clickbait article, worthy of their jobtitle 'Whore-nalist' :cool:
 
FYI - a negative news story which might be a drag tomorrow.

Video footage of Tesla FSD failing miserably (changing lanes and braking in a clear multi lane tunnel) and causing a 9 car nose-to-tail.

Multi-lane tunnel is highway IMHO which is not FSD stack but NOA
 
Is the system actually designed to pull over and turn on the flashers in this case?

I think that would not be a good scenario as it would be the vehicle itself executing a “minimum risk maneuver” by pulling into the passing lane and slowing to a stop, which seems like a maximum risk maneuver. That’s the type of thing that I could see the NHTSA taking swift and not good action to address.

Otherwise I would expect them to just look at the driver attentiveness processes and human machine interface — they don’t expect Autopilot to work flawlessly, they expect the driver to always be attentive and ready to take over when a Level 2 system is operating.
AFAIK after all alerts have been ignored by driver AP just turns hazards on a slows to a stop, does not switch lanes.
 
In case anyone is wondering if Warren Buffet (aka Berkshire Hathaway) will invest in Tesla.

BH owns the 2nd largest auto dealership network in the US. If that little tidbit doesn't put the discussion to bed, I don't know what will.

With EVs there are going to be less dealerships down the road ( needs less servicing)
Add insurance as well…

.. wouldn’t Tesla serve as a hedge..? I think while back Gali had a video on why Warren should buy Tesla with same talking points I have listed here and many more…

+ since charging network will open up.. some of them could even be charging hubs…
 
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FYI - a negative news story which might be a drag tomorrow.

Video footage of Tesla FSD failing miserably (changing lanes and braking in a clear multi lane tunnel) and causing a 9 car nose-to-tail.

Appears to be in a tunnel, so cannot be FSD or NoAP as this shuts-down in tunnels. Also idea odd that the car came to a complete halt, when I had phantom-braking events I took control immediately and accelerated

In any case, it's irrelevant whether FSD, NoAP or EAP was engaged, fact is that the driver is 100% responsible for controlling the vehicle at all times - people seem to forget this. It's not the car that came to a stop, it's the driver that failed to react to the car slowing. It's not a Tesla crashing into a parked emergency vehicle, but the driver not paying attention to the road, etc.

It's not hard to understand...
 
TX expansion
oh my the poor people begging and screaming for buybacks
what are they to do?
gary, Ross (BOD lololol) and blathering Leo
and let’s not forget the illiterati of tmc

it all comes down to the big dreaming laid out on battery day
and what needs to be done to get there.

FOOLS


tony Saco demand destruction?
tesla, without marketing has captured the hearts and minds of the youth, each of who, will end up with buying power to buy the car.
old people coming around to the idea more, remember their own rides, and insist that there is a tesla phone available for sale…

china cars as competitor?
they gonna sell them at harbor freight or northern tool?
build dealerships next to the other fine china autos?
remind me of those brands here in us? Are they In Europe? Anywhere?

bill miller as short seller
i dont trust

blue bird distraction?
horse tonky
it is exposure
”no such thing as bad press”
someone else similarly hated won a major election…

my finger on the pulse read of things is that long term, this is a positive. The pseudo exposure of behind the scene, only helps to bring the gun toting cig smoking bibel thumping un colored segments into the musk camp. They love the guy and everything he has done and is doing.
and the cyber truck will blew Oval their toughness.

and the next model?
stop asking for a yth8ng suckie to be made
gimme the roadster!

 
When drag from Berlin and Austin goes away, it will be replaced by other ramping production lines. So long as we have 50% growth and 1 year long ramps that dictates that at any point in time (on average) 50% of the production lines will be in an inefficient state of ramping.
Fair point, and the maximum drag to GM% from ramp effect in recent years is of the order of 5% :

1673431522361.png


If it is 'only' a 5% drag due to ramp effect then that on its own is no big deal. However if there is reason to think that overall GM% margins will become compressed due to selling price (ARPV) being reduced in order to maintain the volume ramp as competition becomes more of a factor, then that inevitably will lead to less attractive financials.

Whether (if) that combined effect might cause Tesla GM% to fall to 20% or 10% or whatever other number you want to pick is not something we can foresee at this point. Except to the extent that we believe that other auto companies are at best at an approx (say) 5-10% GM% disadvantage to Tesla. I pick 5-10% GM discount because I cannot quickly find a GM% table for the other major automakers, but here is one for NM% that I think is still representative for all (except Tesla) and we can compare that with Tesla's current position. So Tesla is at approx 15% NM in 2022 (my detail forecast is 15.7%) and the 5-year data for other auto makers is showing tops of 7%. ( I know @The Accountant keeps good data on the other OEM GM% so maybe he can chip in if these corresponding NM numbers are no longer representative).

Being forced to look at NM% rather than GM% due to a data shortcut is not entirely a bad thing. After all NM% is pretty close to cash flow, and lack of cash is what drives bankruptcies. Setting aside operating leverage effects this suggests that if a price war were ever to fully break out, then the best competitors would be at breakeven (0% NM) when Tesla would be at 7% NM even with the 'handicap' of funding a 50% yoy manufacturing ramp; and many not-so-good competitors would be operating in that environment at -5% NM losses.

1673432254834.png


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I personally think that the correct thing for Tesla to do is to go after the volume ramp at the maximum rate possible, however if the scenario of concern does come to pass, then it will inevitably hit TSLA valuation. Well, at least for a few years until all the competitors go bust .... then get bailed out ....

The expansion drag effect should persist at least until the end of this decade. In my modelling I assume that a S-curve kicks in with decellerating auto growth for Tesla later in the decade. That ought to be beneficial in respect of ramp drag at that point, except that non-automotive ramp is becoming much more significant in those years (at least in the Tesla-base case, where energy needs to be ramping strongly). So that ramp drag is something investors need to live with for a long time to come, even if it might be a bit patchy occasionally.
 
I agree. But they have been producing lignin since 2015. They also have working pilot factory for a battery grade lignin here in Finlnd. And they announced partnershup with Swedish upcoming battery factory Northwolt last summer. I just hoping Tesla would join this development too.

Perhaps there was at least one other battery grade lignin/carbon start up in Finland. It started several years ago, aiming at just this market. At least one of the initial team was from the paper industry (isn't everyone in Finland ?). What I don't know is whether that is still going on parallel tracks, or whether that got absorbed by Stora. But there is no reason to believe that this could not scale quickly, if it is a viable pathway.