Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[kbM3]

They will affect Tesla's gm smaller and smaller unless Tesla's next mission is to build 4 gigas at the same time, keeping the same ratio going where Shanghai was a drag on Fremont, then Texas/Berlin was a drag on Shanghai/Fremont.

This has been stated by other poster(s) but I will restate their position with my words for hopefully added clarity.
As a company grows in size, new factories have less and less impact on margins.

When Shanghai was ramping - we had 1 efficient site (Fremont) and 1 inefficient site (Shanghai)
With Berlin/Austin ramping, we now have 2 efficient sites and 2 inefficient sites.
By Dec of this year, we will have 4 efficient sites, unless Tesla ramps 4 new site at once, the drag of 1 or 2 new sites will be less as we now have 4 efficient sites producing 2M cars.

Keep in mind that much of the 50% growth year on year is expansion at existing efficient sites where there is virtually no drag on margins.
Look at Shanghai, it produced about 480m cars in 2021 and 725m in 2022 -There was no drag on margins from Shanghai in 2021 and 2022 from what I can see.

Tesla still needs to double production line output more rapidly than every two years. So Austin and Berlin will both be ramping phase 2 very soon.

I guess the question becomes how much of a drag from the initial building of a factory included in phase1, versus drags from expanding a factory’s output in subsequent phases. Obviously adding brand new production lines in existing factories, mean those have to be ramped, but if the fixed cost absorption for land and buildings is mostly realized in phase1, then phase 2 will be easier.

But both Semi and Cybertruck are completely new programs that will undoubtedly be more difficult to ramp, later this year and into next.

 

[Marc_K_inNJ]

1) IDRA 9k T press heading to “Asia”
2) Indonesia Gigafactory announcement imminent.
= Gen3 factory building
I think we are about to witness the next Gen in factory building. Sign a deal, pour foundation, place the Giga Press, set up the lines all while building a building around it. They can optimize the press and the line before the last wall is up…
Tesla will start pumping out factories as fast as they do cars… (well almost as fast)

 

[thesmokingman]

1) IDRA 9k T press heading to “Asia”
2) Indonesia Gigafactory announcement imminent.
= Gen3 factory building
I think we are about to witness the next Gen in factory building. Sign a deal, pour foundation, place the Giga Press, set up the lines all while building a building around it. They can optimize the press and the line before the last wall is up…
Tesla will start pumping out factories as fast as they do cars… (well almost as fast)

That's not the proper order of events. It takes 2 years at Tesla speed to build a factory, what are they gonna do with a 9 ton press for two years?

 

[Drumheller]

Tesla still needs to double production line output more rapidly than every two years.

2M 2023
4M 2025
8M 2027
16M 2029

Doubling every two years seems like it will get Tesla ahead of their 20M in 2030 goal.

 

[mongo]

Tesla still needs to double production line output more rapidly than every two years. So Austin and Berlin will both be ramping phase 2 very soon.

I guess the question becomes how much of a drag from the initial building of a factory included in phase1, versus drags from expanding a factory’s output in subsequent phases. Obviously adding brand new production lines in existing factories, mean those have to be ramped, but if the fixed cost absorption for land and buildings is mostly realized in phase1, then phase 2 will be easier.

But both Semi and Cybertruck are completely new programs that will undoubtedly be more difficult to ramp, later this year and into next.

Indeed.
If the building is large enough already, then new vehicle ramps add cost due to the additional equipment and workforce, but the building cost (while distributed differently) stays the same.
The cost of the Y would be reduced by the reallocation of floorspace/ capacity to Cybertruck. So Y's gross margin would improve. However, since they both live under the automotive umbrella, it doesn't change total cost.
Ultimately, the additional line cost of Cybertruck gets amortized across total vehicle production where it takes $180 million of spend a quarter to shift automotive gross margin by 1% (Q3 number).

41% growth annual is 2x every two years.

 

[ElectricIAC]

what are they gonna do with a 9 ton press for two years?

Make really big panini’s

 

[Rarity]

1) IDRA 9k T press heading to “Asia”
2) Indonesia Gigafactory announcement imminent.
= Gen3 factory building
I think we are about to witness the next Gen in factory building. Sign a deal, pour foundation, place the Giga Press, set up the lines all while building a building around it. They can optimize the press and the line before the last wall is up…
Tesla will start pumping out factories as fast as they do cars… (well almost as fast)

While that seems farfetched in this case, it appears that you don't need any fancy long lead time isolation foundations for the gigapresses, even the 9000-ton version.

The cell factory and supply chain on the other hand seems very fiddly to bring on line. And the stamping presses do need those fancy isolation foundations.

 

[Artful Dodger]

So Austin and Berlin will both be ramping phase 2 very soon.

Austin, sure. Berlin? Prolly knot. (as in bureaucracy). I say Elon and Macron approve a plant in France b4 Germany closes their public herrings.

 

[MP3Mike]

But both Semi and Cybertruck are completely new programs that will undoubtedly be more difficult to ramp, later this year and into next.

Well the Semi isn't completely new. They already have a production line up and running and ramping. Learnings from that can be used in building the new line at GigaTexas, or wherever, the next Semi line is built.

 

[Rarity]

Austin, sure. Berlin? Prolly knot. (as in bureaucracy). I say Elon and Macron approve a plant in France b4 Germany closes their public herrings.

It's not clear to me what the ultimate Austin and Berlin capacities are for Phase 1. 500k apiece? 1 million?

We see new stamping press foundation work happening at both Austin and Berlin. Austin's is happening a bit under wraps with only periodic glimpses from drones, but Berlin's looks like it is still several months off from completion. So the round number of 500k apiece doesn't seem to make sense.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Impressive how a +3% move feels like +10% when we got used to -12/-13% swings. We really took the elevator down. Hope we can climb those stairs back up over next year. 2022 was a total disaster. Can’t believe we lost good people because of that.

 

[thesmokingman]

^^Even a typically crap day like yesterday felt like a win cuz the share price didn't give it all back.

 

[oldTAVguy]

Impressive how a +3% move feels like +10% when we got used to -12/-13% swings. We really took the elevator down. Hope we can climb those stairs back up over next year. 2022 was a total disaster. Can’t believe we lost good people because of that.

Only the stock price, Tesla the company is doing great considering the economic environment.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Only the stock price, Tesla the company is doing great considering the economic environment.

Considering the economic environment, I’d say it’s probably the best positioned company ever to enter a recession with incredible margin, expanding demand, growing cash flow, dept free. But the stock price of this incredible company still cratered and went into the worst debacle few expected.

If they lower the price in Canada, I know many people who will tilt toward Tesla instead of waiting 1 years for a BMW iX or 3-4 years for a Ioniq5

 

[Knightshade]

Make really big panini’s

YM
GigaPaninis
HTH!

 

[Rarity]

Considering the economic environment, I’d say it’s probably the best positioned company ever to enter a recession with incredible margin, expanding demand, growing cash flow, dept free. But the stock price of this incredible company still cratered and went into the worst debacle few expected.

Much/most of the decline was predictable, although it is difficult for some to accept.

Do a simple discounted cash flow on any fast-growing company and you can see that a majority of the value of the company is tied to what happens 10+ years out. Increase the discount rate by 5 percentage points (4.25 already plus 0.75 in the coming months) and you can see that the 10+ year value decreases by at least 39%.

Some companies such as Apple are increasing sales at a much lower pace and therefore the increase in discount rate will have less of an impact. That's why you see Apple decline in value much less.

Some companies such as startups and Tesla are increasing sales at a higher pace and therefore the increase in discount rate will have more of an impact. That's why you see these companies decline in value more. Apparently, startups are seeing 80%+ declines in value in the private markets. This is causing havoc in their cap tables because any new money raised will more or less wipe out existing shareholders.

I suspect that this phenomenon was what Musk was referring to with the DCF equation that he tweeted.

By the way, this phenomenon is why SpaceX's ongoing up-round at $137 billion valuation is so remarkable. Perhaps unique. In 20 years of existence, the company has never had a down-round and has raised money throughout. This might be due in part to the fact that SpaceX is growing at a more measured pace than most startups and Tesla.

 

[capster]

I can’t see there are many clueless left…

There’s a sucker born every minute.

- Usually attributed to P T Barnum, but there’s no evidence that he said it . Seems to be plenty of anecdotal evidence that it is so.

 

[AudubonB]

Elon liked this tweet a couple of hours ago. Perhaps signalling the need for more gigafactories in Asia, specifically Indonesia??

https://twitter.com/x/status/1613149249503477760

Cartographic specialist here breaking silence once again to rap knuckles. Fortunately, class today with Gus involves maps, so…..

Before knuckle-rapping begins, a word for all to remember: any time someone shows especially a full-global map, ask yourself if that is the most appropriate projection of a spheroid’s surface onto a flat plane.
For this situation, in order not to be mischievous, it must be an equal-area projection; the one shown most decidedly is not. Rather, it shows off the desired focus in the best possible light. Below please find my choice; unfortunately, I am not going to place the circle on it but leave it to each of you to do so - use as circumference markers the west boundary of Pakistan, the northern boundary of Hokkaido, and the southern extremities of Indonesia (and on edit: it is a circle of radius 4100km, centered on Guiyou, Guizhang Prov.).
You will note that this region covers a far greater fraction of the earth’s land surface than appeared to have been the case in the original version.

Link here: http://www.equal-earth.com/Equal-Earth-Map-150E.jpg

Final grade: a gentleman’s C-.

 

[Grifon]

Assuming that there wasn't a mechanical/electrical failure of the lead Tesla there were 8 drivers in a row "asleep" at the wheel.

To me it looked like the classic case of everyone driving too fast and only 1-2 car lengths apart. Even if everyone was fully alert, human reaction time wouldn’t save them.

 

[UncaNed]

Amusingly, she appears to work for... a green energy company

Megan Colonel | Leyline Renewable Capital

Megan Colonel is the technical services manager at Leyline Renewable Capital, which invests in the development, construction and financing of sophisticated renewable energy projects.

leylinecapital.com

Lemme guess...

Clean coal? Clean Hydrogen, perhaps? Nuclear Fusion?