MC3OZ
Active Member
IMO Tesla did a good job or working out how many Model S/X to build.What I see is that the Model Y has a huge potential market, perhaps 10X the current market, but not at current ASP's.
With Highland I can see Model 3 capacity increasing.
But apart from building Model 3 (Highland) in Berlin I don't expect Model 3/Y production at any new factories.
I expect cheaper Gen3 models to be produced at new factories and that is the main driver of expansion towards 20 Million vehicles per year.
For the reasons you listed, production of Cybertruck and similar vehicles at other factories would not be a surprise.
With Berlin and Austin fully ramped, final Model Y production might be 2X-3X total 2022 production.
Tesla needs vehicles in all price segments, and for each vehicle to fall into a relatively narrow price band,
If it was possible to produce and sell a profitable Model Y for 30K, people would start wondering why a higher spec Model Y is 60K.
When the 25K-30K vehicle is smaller, hitting that price point is easier, and customers don't expect a Model Y to cost the same amount.
Once cheaper EVs are available, that helps set the limit for market share for more expensive EVs..
But Cybertruck is in a unique market segment, no one expects it to cost the same as a compact EV. The price comparison is against the ICE competition, probably on a Total Cost of Ownership basis.
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