Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

What I see is that the Model Y has a huge potential market, perhaps 10X the current market, but not at current ASP's.

IMO Tesla did a good job or working out how many Model S/X to build.

With Highland I can see Model 3 capacity increasing.

But apart from building Model 3 (Highland) in Berlin I don't expect Model 3/Y production at any new factories.

I expect cheaper Gen3 models to be produced at new factories and that is the main driver of expansion towards 20 Million vehicles per year.

For the reasons you listed, production of Cybertruck and similar vehicles at other factories would not be a surprise.

With Berlin and Austin fully ramped, final Model Y production might be 2X-3X total 2022 production.

Tesla needs vehicles in all price segments, and for each vehicle to fall into a relatively narrow price band,

If it was possible to produce and sell a profitable Model Y for 30K, people would start wondering why a higher spec Model Y is 60K.
When the 25K-30K vehicle is smaller, hitting that price point is easier, and customers don't expect a Model Y to cost the same amount.

Once cheaper EVs are available, that helps set the limit for market share for more expensive EVs..

But Cybertruck is in a unique market segment, no one expects it to cost the same as a compact EV. The price comparison is against the ICE competition, probably on a Total Cost of Ownership basis.

 

[thesmokingman]

I'd caution against talking sugar about Rimac. What Rimac has done and how they have develped is nothing short of remarkable.

This is truly an incredible story of Mate self modifying BMW to EV and growing into what they are now. It is one great miracle that they have worked for very hard.

Also, we all know that the Roadster will be fast, but Nevera might not be their last word.

Finally, they are fine with the segment they cover. 2M a pop is a different kind of manufacturing and approach to technology.

It's cool but it's not that cool. The point of the Plaid and Roadster which is that they are actual production vehicles that take these limited handbuilt, no stone un-turned bedazzled unicorns to the limit. When I was younger I too was taken in by these hyper exotics, but then I realized I can never own one of these but a Plaid or a Roadster is a possiblility. While the Nevera is a feat, it's not nearly a feat as the Plaid imo to get that sort of acceleration on a sedan that can be scaled to 40K units a year. They are two different kinds of engineering but one is a helluvalot more realistic to me.

Im in IT and it's like every new generation they trot out the subzero boys to overclock them cpus to 7 gigahertz, everyone goes wow and then we forget about it cuz it has no bearing on our real lives. That's how I think about these exotics.

 

[Spacep0d]

I'd caution against talking sugar about Rimac. What Rimac has done and how they have develped is nothing short of remarkable.

This is truly an incredible story of Mate self modifying BMW to EV and growing into what they are now. It is one great miracle that they have worked for very hard.

Also, we all know that the Roadster will be fast, but Nevera might not be their last word.

Finally, they are fine with the segment they cover. 2M a pop is a different kind of manufacturing and approach to technology.

Amazing interview and tour. Thank you! I love that Musk has his own 'tribute' office space along with other car guys.

 

[Artful Dodger]

After today's Close, NASDAQ published TSLA short interest for the period ending Dec 30, 2022:

Settlement Date​	Shares Short​	Delta Short Interest​
12/30/22​	80,186,849​	7,149,763​

Short Interest is up a massive 10% from the previous reporting period which covered to Dec 15, 2022

Yes, that's 80.2M shares of TSLA held by shortzes, which is an increase of 7.15M shares in short interest.

Manipulation, you ain't even seen Options Open Interest...

• NASDAQ Short Interest Publication Schedule
• TSLA Short Interest

Paging @Papafox

 

[thesmokingman]

Da hell, they are building it up again at this juncture?

 

[2daMoon]

I'd caution against talking sugar about Rimac. What Rimac has done and how they have develped is nothing short of remarkable.

This is truly an incredible story of Mate self modifying BMW to EV and growing into what they are now. It is one great miracle that they have worked for very hard.

Also, we all know that the Roadster will be fast, but Nevera might not be their last word.

Finally, they are fine with the segment they cover. 2M a pop is a different kind of manufacturing and approach to technology.

All in good fun, very much admire both companies' awesomeness.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Sawyer figured this out manually. Not sure if a coincidence or by design, but I like to see Tesla being more active on Twitter.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1613374050398511104

 

[thesmokingman]

Sawyer figured this out manually. Not sure if a coincidence or by design, but I like to see Tesla being more active on Twitter.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1613374050398511104

That was an expensive media relations acquisition! /s

 

[UrsS]

Some thoughts about the Roadster deliveries this year:
I don't think there will be a Roadster 'line' - they will be mostly hand built - probably with a Plaid or modified Plaid drive train (from Fremont). So, the Semi is right now being hand built in Nevada - but not forever. Once the Semi production goes online there will be a whole bunch of (hopefully) very skilled hand assembly craftsmen without a job in Nevada. Now, if they just switch to assembling Roadsters there will be a bunch of happy assemblers and a steady stream of Roadsters.

 

[Ogre]

I'd caution against talking sugar about Rimac. What Rimac has done and how they have develped is nothing short of remarkable.

This is truly an incredible story of Mate self modifying BMW to EV and growing into what they are now. It is one great miracle that they have worked for very hard.

Also, we all know that the Roadster will be fast, but Nevera might not be their last word.

Finally, they are fine with the segment they cover. 2M a pop is a different kind of manufacturing and approach to technology.

Weird thought. Does Tesla design the Roadster to use Gigacastings?

On the Model Y its very much about economies of scale. With the Roadster they would lose a lot of the benefits of scale, but just having the big castings shaves weight off and increases consistency.

They wouldn’t need a separate press, they could just shut down the Model Y line or the Cybertruck line for a few days and press out half a year’s worth of bodies.

 

[Ogre]

Some thoughts about the Roadster deliveries this year:
I don't think there will be a Roadster 'line' - they will be mostly hand built - probably with a Plaid or modified Plaid drive train (from Fremont). So, the Semi is right now being hand built in Nevada - but not forever. Once the Semi production goes online there will be a whole bunch of (hopefully) very skilled hand assembly craftsmen without a job in Nevada. Now, if they just switch to assembling Roadsters there will be a bunch of happy assemblers and a steady stream of Roadsters.

There will be an assembly line. Even though it’s 5,000 units per year they will still organize it as an assembly line, you can’t hand assembly 15 cars per day. Even Rimac had a sort of assembly line.

 

[thesmokingman]

Weird thought. Does Tesla design the Roadster to use Gigacastings?

On the Model Y its very much about economies of scale. With the Roadster they would lose a lot of the benefits of scale, but just having the big castings shaves weight off and increases consistency.

They wouldn’t need a separate press, they could just shut down the Model Y line or the Cybertruck line for a few days and press out half a year’s worth of bodies.

The Nevera actually weighs more than the Plaid. Let that sink in for a minute. Thus on a napkin math level, the Plaids tri-motor system with a 500lb-1000lb weight savings would equate to insanity. It doesn't need anymore power, probably but instead a weight reduction would make it a seriously carazy track weapon. Remember the Nevera is heavy as **** for a 2 seat hyper exotic. But on the point of castings, iirc the Roadster will be structural as well since they are retiring the skateboard platform.

 

[Brn2Run]

Hehe, the SpaceX package, I had forgot that one.
There was many people who believed / still believe, that it will make the car hover...

 

[MC3OZ]

Weird thought. Does Tesla design the Roadster to use Gigacastings?

On the Model Y its very much about economies of scale. With the Roadster they would lose a lot of the benefits of scale, but just having the big castings shaves weight off and increases consistency.

They wouldn’t need a separate press, they could just shut down the Model Y line or the Cybertruck line for a few days and press out half a year’s worth of bodies.

They would still need to make a mould which would be expensive for lower volumes, but for this kind of car the margins should be good enough, so reduce the effort needed to design and build the cars.

The other question is if Model S Plaid+ is dead forever, or if it (assuming it exists) could use the same battery pack as the Roadster and the same castings.

Castings make cars easier to build, even without a structural pack.

The other question is how the Roadster body will be made, dies for stamped body parts might be expensive/time consuming for low volume production.

On a related question, - I wonder how the Semi cab is made and what it is made of?

If the Semi cab isn't regular stamped metal, I would guess that the Roadster body would be similar.

Has anyone ever got close to a Semi with a magnet?
Or close enough to determine that the cab is metal panels?

I don't think they have a stamping press at Sparks, but stamped elsewhere and transported is possible.

 

[SmokyPeat]

If the Semi cab is metal, I would expect it to be Aluminum. Apparently at least one of the prototypes is carbon fiber reinforced plastic. But that doesn't necessarily mean that the production models are as well.

Lightweight Materials for Heavy Trucks

Continual motivations to reduce overall vehicle weight in on-highway vehicle applications lead to more haulage capability as well as aesthetic and performance benefits.

www.oemoffhighway.com

 

[MP3Mike]

Has anyone ever got close to a Semi with a magnet?
Or close enough to determine that the cab is metal panels?

I would think it is most likely carbon fiber or fiberglass. (I think it was said that the prototype was carbon fiber.)

 

[Brn2Run]

Yes, the IDRA injection presses could be multiplied as well!

I was referring to the new AIDA Stamping press installation that has been going on at the other end of the building.

Now, let's imagine the Compact is also built as Stainless Steel Origami, no paint, fast build, and shares some of the line with the Cybertruck.

And a Cybertruck as a "delivery van" version. No clue how that would look like but..

And a car/van like the ID Buzz, with different versions; delivery van for the commercial market, and a family 7-seater (or 5). Would take many years to get close to saturate the market.

 

[MC3OZ]

I would think it is most likely carbon fiber or fiberglass. (I think it was said that the prototype was carbon fiber.)

Yes, it looks to me like carbon fiber or fiberglass, specifically it looks more 'matt" and "shaped" than I would expect from metal.

By "matt" I mean not shiny, and with a softer looking surface.

These kind of options are good for lower volume production,

Even if the Semi cab is metal, the Roadster being carbon fiber or fiberglass is very likely.

Since the Semi cab is quite large, making it from lightweight material is a significant advantage.

 

[Ogre]

The Nevera actually weighs more than the Plaid. Let that sink in for a minute. Thus on a napkin math level, the Plaids tri-motor system with a 500lb-1000lb weight savings would equate to insanity. It doesn't need anymore power, probably but instead a weight reduction would make it a seriously carazy track weapon. Remember the Nevera is heavy as **** for a 2 seat hyper exotic. But on the point of castings, iirc the Roadster will be structural as well since they are retiring the skateboard platform.

The big problem with the Roadster is going to be traction when they start applying that much horse power to the tires. This is weirdly where I think the cold air thrusters could really do something crazy for acceleration. If you are going 80 miles an hour it won’t make a ton of difference, but a little nudge forward when traction starts to fail could be a big difference.

The Roadster should be amazing on the track. Super low CG and massive power to weight ratio.

 

[dhanson865]

Hehe, the SpaceX package, I had forgot that one.
There was many people who believed / still believe, that it will make the car hover...

Not hover, just hop.

It's a very short burst and it will be enough to get you off the ground, but not for long.