Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[thesmokingman]

The big problem with the Roadster is going to be traction when they start applying that much horse power to the tires. This is weirdly where I think the cold air thrusters could really do something crazy for acceleration. If you are going 80 miles an hour it won’t make a ton of difference, but a little nudge forward when traction starts to fail could be a big difference.

The Roadster should be amazing on the track. Super low CG and massive power to weight ratio.

It shouldn't have traction issues with the awd setup. The question is how heavy it will be vs range. You don't need a big battery if its light but then again if it is tri motor it's gonna weigh a bit regardless so however they balance that will define the major characteristics of the Roadster. Imo if they target 3500lbs it would a slam dunk. Best track day weapon outside of a McMurty.

 

[thesmokingman]

That’s a legit race car, except for the range (and by legit, I mean, challenges an F1). At full race pace though, only lasts one lap. 300 km on the WLTP cycle. I think I just realized why the Roadster specs had such long highway range. So that it can last more than one lap at race pace…

Tbf fair at a reduced pace like GT3 pace which is still gobs faster than any typical track day pacing, it can do 20 min sessions which is about on pace with a M3P. But yea, the Speirling is crazy off the charts but it is a 2.5m track day unicorn. Also we have to put it into context because a normal car cannot go full throttle due to loss of traction around a track UNLIKE the McMurty, there is minimal speed loss and that fan that's always on. One could also mix it up and run no fan for longer sessions etc etc.

 

[Max Plaid]

IMO Tesla did a good job or working out how many Model S/X to build.

With Highland I can see Model 3 capacity increasing.

But apart from building Model 3 (Highland) in Berlin I don't expect Model 3/Y production at any new factories.

I expect cheaper Gen3 models to be produced at new factories and that is the main driver of expansion towards 20 Million vehicles per year.

For the reasons you listed, production of Cybertruck and similar vehicles at other factories would not be a surprise.

With Berlin and Austin fully ramped, final Model Y production might be 2X-3X total 2022 production.

Tesla needs vehicles in all price segments, and for each vehicle to fall into a relatively narrow price band,

If it was possible to produce and sell a profitable Model Y for 30K, people would start wondering why a higher spec Model Y is 60K.
When the 25K-30K vehicle is smaller, hitting that price point is easier, and customers don't expect a Model Y to cost the same amount.

Once cheaper EVs are available, that helps set the limit for market share for more expensive EVs..

But Cybertruck is in a unique market segment, no one expects it to cost the same as a compact EV. The price comparison is against the ICE competition, probably on a Total Cost of Ownership basis.

I don't see the point of producing M3 at GF4 - Europe doesn't buy sedans much, we buy hatch-backs. M3 adds nothing over the MY, they are very similar size externally, but the MY is much more practical

Better to jump directly to the Model 2/Q IMO, Europe will buy as many cheaper, small, city cars as Tesla can spit out

 

[trayloader]

Lets get back to BYD for a second-
they are issueing cars under the project name "Warship" (seriously!), so the humor is out and gloves on,
plus announced the small compact car, the Seagull for ~12k, which resembles a Bolt 2.0. Tuff for GM at last.
So they chose to step into the "price war segement" and it´s gonny be bloody.

Capacity statements- very blurry, maybe around 44KW, tho they seem to sport the Blade battery.
I´m sure Tesla will come out with a much more appealing exterior package, make money and I expect the announcement this March, since Tom Zhu spoke about this Model 2 project in the beginning of ´21.
Timing and surpirse factor would be perfect.
Just a thought- maybe the 9000ton IDRA casts the whole frame in one?
The end game is beginning. Tesla has them where it wants them.
take it. Smell the perfume

https://carnewschina.com/2023/01/11/byd-seagull-ev-city-car-exposed-by-chinese-miit-with-75-horses/

 

[15Peter20]

There are also a few fairly good Chinese Supercars coming soon, including one from BYD,

Rimac and the Roadster might stake out the high end, admittedly at difference price points., The Chinese options perhaps not as good but a bit cheaper. Lots of choice for the customer, no reason at all to buy ICE.

Dig a bit deeper, and those ICE Supercars and Hypercars need regular servicing, and are expensive to keep on the road.

EVs achieving a clear smackdown in this segment is good for all EV sales.

A lot of these ICE supercars spend their lives in cities. Congestion and clean-air charges can add crazy amounts to the running costs.

 

[EVMeister]

I don't see the point of producing M3 at GF4 - Europe doesn't buy sedans much, we buy hatch-backs. M3 adds nothing over the MY, they are very similar size externally, but the MY is much more practical

Better to jump directly to the Model 2/Q IMO, Europe will buy as many cheaper, small, city cars as Tesla can spit out

To play devil's advocate, I still feel the Model 3 is a nice option and has its place. It's sportier and sleeker than the Model Y, with superior handling and faster acceleration. Not everyone needs to compromise form for the extra space or convenience of a hatchback. The compact car surely won't be able to match the Model 3's performance (acceleration and general punch). I personally prefer the Model 3 over the Model Y and think both models have their appeal - and I don't think the new compact model will satisfy some in the same way as the Model 3. No doubt the compact car will have real mass appeal in Europe, though.

 

[Unpilot]

A big blast of air out the rear end… I have some suggestions for how they should tune that sound coming out,

On that note.... If your new avatar is what I think it is...can you please change it!

 

[petit_bateau]

I'm not sure what you are reading but I didn't see anything misleading in there. They didn't claim that all the solar they installed used in-house inverters. They just made a specific claim of how many Tesla made inverters have been installed, solar/energy storage/vehicles. That wouldn't include any of the SolarEdge, Delta, etc. inverters that Tesla installed in solar projects.

As far as inverters in Tesla vehicles, they have way more than 100kW. For example, the Model S Plaid has ~750kW of inverters. (I think a RWD Tesla has close to 200kW of inverters.)


I don't see anything on SolarEdge's site about inverters for motors... I don't see Enphase advertising any either... So it seems that you are the one being misleading...



They made it very clear that for most of the actual installs that optimizers didn't make sense. (You would be better served by spending the money that would have gone to them on additional panels.) And that in cases where they might make sense their inverters may accomplish the same thing by supporting more, and smaller, MPPT strings than the competitors inverters.

Yes it is marketing. The art of saying misleading things without actually writing falsehoods. The people that wrote this know precisely how cringeworthy those claims are.

A lot of solar inverters are made by the sort of industrial companies that also make inverter drives for all sorts of motors. As a for-example see Delta (Welcome to Delta ). Or if you don't recognise them go to Schneider (Solar Inverters and Solutions). One also needs to be careful, for example a lot of rebadging goes on and also conglomerates flip divisions like burgers - example ABB (surely you know their drives?) taking over PowerOne in 2013 then flipping to Fimer in 2020 (Power-One Italy SpA) and then that getting clobbered. There are many other, frequently badgeless and/or rebadged and coming from the sort of places in India and China and Taiwan that people ignore. But it is also worth peeling back to the next layer, that of the underlying chipset manufacturers, most especially the power semiconductors. As a for-example see IXYS (IXYS CORPORATION) .

I've got no problem with Tesla admitting it needs to start selling solar inverters to other users so that Tesla can gain scale. That is a fair enough move. But what disappoints me is :
- the way this is being marketed (pass the puke bucket);
- that fan bois just broadcast the propoganda with no attempt to examine it critically;
- and *** most important *** this is an admission of strategic failure in Tesla Solar generally and in a way that threatens Tesla Powerwall specifically (no wonder there are rumours of fallings out and unfollowings).

In the domestic/residential segment (and also to a lesser extent the commercial/industrial segment) there is a fight on to control the nexus of the future integrated home. That nexus needs to handle both data/comms and electrical energy. It is a desperately messy nexus in almost every way: technically, operationally, industrially and there is a fierce war going on to be a significant player in it. AND TESLA's STRATEGY HAS BEEN FAILING FOR YEARS. The basic 'starter' building blocks are solar + inverter/charger + fuse board/metering* and to these can increasingly be added: battery storage; EV charger; scavengers; and heat pumps. Crucially one needs scale to be able to play the adoption games. But essentially in practice Tesla limited Powerwall and inverter offering to (in practice) only run alongside Tesla solar and (in practice, by starving the other countries' supply) in USA/Canada. And then because Tesla failed in the solar game (0.1%), and also failed to scale their inverter supply (0.1%) and then found their Powerwall storage offering withering (peaked at global market share approx 70%, now down to approx 20%) they have thrown away a fantastically good opportunity to claim that nexus as being the first mover with scale. That is an epic failure of the Tesla strategy in the wider energy sector, leaving only the utility scale offering (Megapack) as having - fortunately - excellent momentum.

Hence the strategic pivot we see on display, disguised by complete marketing horlicks.

There is also an admission of failure in the senior management team. Tesla has been rolling in cash, that has not been a constraint for Tesla. Yet the competition have overtaken Tesla, and the competition have done so whilst overcoming the same semiconductor supply constraints and the same cell supply constraints that Tesla had. The competition overcame those constraints, overtaking the company that had the best buying power, the best early mover position, and the most capital. If that is not evidence of failure in the senior management team then I'm reading a different set of tea leaves than you. The next level of evidential dots can also be discerned if you take the trouble to look.

We are looking at a turnaround plan here. Be in no doubt about that.

(A worry I have is that Megapack could also suffer from the same stupidities if the lessons have not been learnt.)

AND NOT A SINGLE ANALYST HAS EVER DONE ANY ANALYSIS on this. About as sharp as a baby rabbit the lot of them. They need to be forcing the facts out of Tesla at every quarterly call.

* called a consumer unit in some countries

 

[unk45]

Cartographic specialist here breaking silence once again to rap knuckles. Fortunately, class today with Gus involves maps, so…..

Before knuckle-rapping begins, a word for all to remember: any time someone shows especially a full-global map, ask yourself if that is the most appropriate projection of a spheroid’s surface onto a flat plane.
For this situation, in order not to be mischievous, it must be an equal-area projection; the one shown most decidedly is not. Rather, it shows off the desired focus in the best possible light. Below please find my choice; unfortunately, I am not going to place the circle on it but leave it to each of you to do so - use as circumference markers the west boundary of Pakistan, the northern boundary of Hokkaido, and the southern extremities of Indonesia (and on edit: it is a circle of radius 4100km, centered on Guiyou, Guizhang Prov.).
You will note that this region covers a far greater fraction of the earth’s land surface than appeared to have been the case in the original version.

Link here: http://www.equal-earth.com/Equal-Earth-Map-150E.jpg

Final grade: a gentleman’s C-.

A more qualified person here grades this post an A. From my ancient experience as an ATP and flight instructor I am struck how habitual Mercator projection map views cause major logical problems when planning logistics. Clearly both marine and air flight planning overcome these problems but still cause problems in logical planning cases. Among the more common such problems are such issues as think of, say, Savannah, Georgia as directly south of New York when it is really more nearly due South of Cleveland, Ohio. Similarly most of South America is East of most of the US.

In Tesla terms these issues become relevant when geographic misunderstanding makes planners prone to errors. Raw materials logistics, factory placement and more are prone to errors in judgement driven by ignorance of actual terrestrial placement.

Most people go not think of such things. Based on history it is probable that such errors will continue despite obvious and clear facts. Poor geographical understanding is very much analogous to cateracts on eyes, in that clarity is lost.

This really matters when planning logistics.

 

[Mengy]

Not hover, just hop.

It's a very short burst and it will be enough to get you off the ground, but not for long.

Like Speed Racer!

 

[Gigapress]

Yes it is marketing. The art of saying misleading things without actually writing falsehoods. The people that wrote this know precisely how cringeworthy those claims are.

A lot of solar inverters are made by the sort of industrial companies that also make inverter drives for all sorts of motors. As a for-example see Delta (Welcome to Delta ). Or if you don't recognise them go to Schneider (Solar Inverters and Solutions). One also needs to be careful, for example a lot of rebadging goes on and also conglomerates flip divisions like burgers - example ABB (surely you know their drives?) taking over PowerOne in 2013 then flipping to Fimer in 2020 (Power-One Italy SpA) and then that getting clobbered. There are many other, frequently badgeless and/or rebadged and coming from the sort of places in India and China and Taiwan that people ignore. But it is also worth peeling back to the next layer, that of the underlying chipset manufacturers, most especially the power semiconductors. As a for-example see IXYS (IXYS CORPORATION) .

I've got no problem with Tesla admitting it needs to start selling solar inverters to other users so that Tesla can gain scale. That is a fair enough move. But what disappoints me is :
- the way this is being marketed (pass the puke bucket);
- that fan bois just broadcast the propoganda with no attempt to examine it critically;
- and *** most important *** this is an admission of strategic failure in Tesla Solar generally and in a way that threatens Tesla Powerwall specifically (no wonder there are rumours of fallings out and unfollowings).

In the domestic/residential segment (and also to a lesser extent the commercial/industrial segment) there is a fight on to control the nexus of the future integrated home. That nexus needs to handle both data/comms and electrical energy. It is a desperately messy nexus in almost every way: technically, operationally, industrially and there is a fierce war going on to be a significant player in it. AND TESLA's STRATEGY HAS BEEN FAILING FOR YEARS. The basic 'starter' building blocks are solar + inverter/charger + fuse board/metering* and to these can increasingly be added: battery storage; EV charger; scavengers; and heat pumps. Crucially one needs scale to be able to play the adoption games. But essentially in practice Tesla limited Powerwall and inverter offering to (in practice) only run alongside Tesla solar and (in practice, by starving the other countries' supply) in USA/Canada. And then because Tesla failed in the solar game (0.1%), and also failed to scale their inverter supply (0.1%) and then found their Powerwall storage offering withering (peaked at global market share approx 70%, now down to approx 20%) they have thrown away a fantastically good opportunity to claim that nexus as being the first mover with scale. That is an epic failure of the Tesla strategy in the wider energy sector, leaving only the utility scale offering (Megapack) as having - fortunately - excellent momentum.

Hence the strategic pivot we see on display, disguised by complete marketing horlicks.

There is also an admission of failure in the senior management team. Tesla has been rolling in cash, that has not been a constraint for Tesla. Yet the competition have overtaken Tesla, and the competition have done so whilst overcoming the same semiconductor supply constraints and the same cell supply constraints that Tesla had. The competition overcame those constraints, overtaking the company that had the best buying power, the best early mover position, and the most capital. If that is not evidence of failure in the senior management team then I'm reading a different set of tea leaves than you. The next level of evidential dots can also be discerned if you take the trouble to look.

We are looking at a turnaround plan here. Be in no doubt about that.

(A worry I have is that Megapack could also suffer from the same stupidities if the lessons have not been learnt.)

AND NOT A SINGLE ANALYST HAS EVER DONE ANY ANALYSIS on this. About as sharp as a baby rabbit the lot of them. They need to be forcing the facts out of Tesla at every quarterly call.

* called a consumer unit in some countries

Can you get into more specifics of what you think Tesla did wrong and why this white paper was propaganda? A lot of us have less knowledge of this area of the business and it would be more helpful if you could provide the critical examination you say is needed. It looks like mostly what you’ve given thus far is vague insults and accusations of deception and I’m interested to learn what substance may be behind them. What particular misleading claims has Tesla made in this white paper and why?

Especially, do you disagree with any or all of their main three points?

“Using Tesla’s inverter architecture realizes the following benefits:

1) The best lifetime value and lowest up-front cost for system owners​

2) Simplified site design, installation, commissioning, and service for installers​

3) Superior reliability, supply scalability, and a full product ecosystem by leveraging the power of Tesla”​

There is also an admission of failure in the senior management team. Tesla has been rolling in cash, that has not been a constraint for Tesla. Yet the competition have overtaken Tesla, and the competition have done so whilst overcoming the same semiconductor supply constraints and the same cell supply constraints that Tesla had. The competition overcame those constraints, overtaking the company that had the best buying power, the best early mover position, and the most capital. If that is not evidence of failure in the senior management team then I'm reading a different set of tea leaves than you.

Tesla said that it came down to a choice of making more Powerwalls or more vehicles. As far as I’m aware, Enphase, SolarEdge, Schneider Electric, and Delta don’t make highly profitable cars along with home energy products, and they also aren’t trying to build a huge data-collecting fleet of cars in an attempt to solve autonomous driving and thereby earn trillions of dollars while adding massive value to human civilization. What else would you have had Tesla do under these constraints? That’s a genuine question because I don’t really understand and you’ve clearly put a lot of thought into this.

 

[Mengy]

CPI came in right in line with expectations, falling 0.1%, so a pretty decent CPI report!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/01/12/cpi-report-december-inflation/

Link to source data per Discoducky:

Consumer Price Index Summary - 2024 M02 Results

www.bls.gov

 

[Knightshade]

And a Cybertruck as a "delivery van" version. No clue how that would look like but..

And a car/van like the ID Buzz, with different versions; delivery van for the commercial market, and a family 7-seater (or 5). Would take many years to get close to saturate the market.

Just because it was a popular topic recently... a van would also be useful for TBC to increase carrying capacity in the tunnels so they'd be yet another customer for that (they were already supposed to have had a larger capacity vehicle in earlier proposals)

Not hover, just hop.

It's a very short burst and it will be enough to get you off the ground, but not for long.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1395554979851554817

and

https://twitter.com/x/status/1083095876392964096

 

[petit_bateau]

I've now had a chance to look at the supposed cost and LCOE advantage claims in the new Tesla inverter and - as I suspected last night - there is a whiff in the marketing speke.

It seems to me that the competitor inverter that Tesla most has in mind when doing its String+Optimiser calculations is the SolarEdge 8.0kW HD with the associated DCDC modules, aka "optimisers" that are mounted behind the solar PV panels themselves (which are also called modules).

Solaredge | 8Kw Solar Inverter 1 Phase | CCL Components

SolarEdge??s latest generation of single phase inverters are designed using a novel power conversion technology that is based on a distributed switching and powerful DSP processing

www.cclcomponents.com

As it happens we are currently installing the 5kW version of this right now at my GF's property, to run approx 7kW of panels. Yes, 155% oversizing is allowed, and one would tend to do that on a shaded site or a multi-angle roof site to reduce LCOE as you'd never get all panels at max simultaneously. That's why we are doing it on my GF's. (I don't normally get directly involved in hands-on-tools work but I've been helping with some aspects of this job.)

But let's assume we run the mooted 8kW system cool by installing a pukka 8kW inverter. So my installer and I pulled up the price he would give me for the 8kW version and it is GBP 1300. These are kosher rates, not mates rates. To that we must add in 20 optimisers required to run a 8kW system using 400W panels, so 20 x GBP 40 = GBP 800. Now I also added on GBP 80 for these vague "supporting equipment" that Tesla claim are required, though neither of us can think of anything beyond perhaps a GBP 30 wifi aerial. So we have GBP 50 in hand in case anyone is arguing. Total = GBP 1300 + 800 + 80 = GBP 2180.

GBP 2180 = USD 2647, so let's call that $2650 to again be conservative in Tesla's favor.

Now let's pull up that Tesla cost graphic in the Tesla marketing brochure. I've added a scale bar on the cost axis (green blocks) and plotted the line for $2650, and we can also see that Tesla are suggesting that this system should cost $2810. It turns out that is a 6% cost overstatement in Tesla's advantage. Funny that.

That of course means that the LCOE calculation will shift by 6%. (for now assume those brown optimiser failure bars are correct, we'll come back to that)

And that 6% in turn means the Tesla claimed advantage disappears on almost all sites.

Regarding optimiser failures my personal experience is that I've had 2 1 failures on 24 panels in 7-years running across 2 sites so far. (Actually I can definitely remember one - and I've now checked with the installer ... it was only the one). Replaced under warranty in a few weeks - the job was done in less than an hour whilst the installer was passing by between other jobs. That's an 8% 4% failure rate. Tesla seem to be broadcasting FUD about 50% and 100% failure rates but I can't quite see how they run the calc on that. You can make your own call.

Regarding ease of set up, test, and repair what could be better faster ad easier than a one-per-module optimiser that tells you precisely how each solar panel and each optimiser is operating at all times, and alerts you to issues in either the install or during operation. As opposed to suspecting a problem somewhere on a string .... now get on the roof and find it .......

Now I can fully understand why Tesla might want to get into the inverter manufacturing game, and that they might want to do it with a string inverter in this manner. And that the result might be lots of marketing horlicks being sprayed around by Tesla.

But as investors we should see through that.

(plus I still stand by everything in my earlier posts re the strategic and decision-making / very-senior-management implications)

 

[Discoducky]

CPI came in right in line with expectations, falling 0.1%, so a pretty decent CPI report!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/01/12/cpi-report-december-inflation/

Here's the source data: Consumer Price Index Summary - 2022 M12 Results

New and used car prices are interesting...which is new car prices down 0.1% m/m and used car prices down 2.9% m/m (both seasonally adjusted)

 

[Knightshade]

Tesla China Plant Expansion in Doubt Over Starlink Concerns

An expansion of Tesla Inc.’s plant in Shanghai has been delayed, according to people familiar with the matter, over data concerns that risk putting a roadblock in the way of the US electric-car maker’s ambition to keep growing in China.

www.bloomberg.com

It's a bloomberg "people familiar with the matter" story so grain of salt and all...

 

[ElectricIAC]

Tesla China Plant Expansion in Doubt Over Starlink Concerns

An expansion of Tesla Inc.’s plant in Shanghai has been delayed, according to people familiar with the matter, over data concerns that risk putting a roadblock in the way of the US electric-car maker’s ambition to keep growing in China.

www.bloomberg.com

It's a bloomberg "people familiar with the matter" story so grain of salt and all...

Need one of these for that.

 

[phoggy123]

I've now had a chance to look at the supposed cost and LCOE advantage claims in the new Tesla inverter and - as I suspected last night - there is a whiff in the marketing speke.

It seems to me that the competitor inverter that Tesla most has in mind when doing its String+Optimiser calculations is the SolarEdge 8.0kW HD with the associated DCDC modules, aka "optimisers" that are mounted behind the solar PV panels themselves (which are also called modules).

Solaredge | 8Kw Solar Inverter 1 Phase | CCL Components

SolarEdge??s latest generation of single phase inverters are designed using a novel power conversion technology that is based on a distributed switching and powerful DSP processing

www.cclcomponents.com

As it happens we are currently installing the 5kW version of this right now at my GF's property, to run approx 7kW of panels. Yes, 155% oversizing is allowed, and one would tend to do that on a shaded site or a multi-angle roof site to reduce LCOE as you'd never get all panels at max simultaneously. That's why we are doing it on my GF's. (I don't normally get directly involved in hands-on-tools work but I've been helping with some aspects of this job.)

But let's assume we run the mooted 8kW system cool by installing a pukka 8kW inverter. So my installer and I pulled up the price he would give me for the 8kW version and it is GBP 1300. These are kosher rates, not mates rates. To that we must add in 20 optimisers required to run a 8kW system using 400W panels, so 20 x GBP 40 = GBP 800. Now I also added on GBP 80 for these vague "supporting equipment" that Tesla claim are required, though neither of us can think of anything beyond perhaps a GBP 30 wifi aerial. So we have GBP 50 in hand in case anyone is arguing. Total = GBP 1300 + 800 + 80 = GBP 2180.

GBP 2180 = USD 2647, so let's call that $2650 to again be conservative in Tesla's favor.

Now let's pull up that Tesla cost graphic in the Tesla marketing brochure. I've added a scale bar on the cost axis (green blocks) and plotted the line for $2650, and we can also see that Tesla are suggesting that this system should cost $2810. It turns out that is a 6% cost overstatement in Tesla's advantage. Funny that.

View attachment 894845
That of course means that the LCOE calculation will shift by 6%. (for now assume those brown optimiser failure bars are correct, we'll come back to that)

View attachment 894846

And that 6% in turn means the Tesla claimed advantage disappears on almost all sites.

View attachment 894849

Regarding optimiser failures my personal experience is that I've had 2 1 failures on 24 panels in 7-years running across 2 sites so far. (Actually I can definitely remember one - and I've now checked with the installer ... it was only the one). Replaced under warranty in a few weeks - the job was done in less than an hour whilst the installer was passing by between other jobs. That's an 8% 4% failure rate. Tesla seem to be broadcasting FUD about 50% and 100% failure rates but I can't quite see how they run the calc on that. You can make your own call.

Regarding ease of set up, test, and repair what could be better faster ad easier than a one-per-module optimiser that tells you precisely how each solar panel and each optimiser is operating at all times, and alerts you to issues in either the install or during operation. As opposed to suspecting a problem somewhere on a string .... now get on the roof and find it .......

Now I can fully understand why Tesla might want to get into the inverter manufacturing game, and that they might want to do it with a string inverter in this manner. And that the result might be lots of marketing horlicks being sprayed around by Tesla.

But as investors we should see through that.

(plus I still stand by everything in my earlier posts re the strategic and decision-making / very-senior-management implications)

The best part is no part.....Solar edge has a history of higher failure rates that that of enphase (or anyone else really). I think their paper does a decent job and trying to explain their advantages of a basic system compared to those that may get higher output but cost more upfront and in complexity. Personally I think Tesla solar + storage is the best package you can buy today (assuming you can get storage). I assume they will shutter solar roof in the years to come given American roofs are unnecessarily complex in favor of a more typical installation.

 

[petit_bateau]

When I toured Delta in 2017across the street from the Fremont factory, I was told they make all the inverters for Tesla. I don’t know if today tesla makes any of their own inverters. Delta also makes the board in my wall connector. But investing in TSLA is very simple, I have watched all the influencers, and it is always the perfect time to buy Tesla, and never the right Time to sell. The only one who knows when it’s time to sell Tesla is Elon, who only sells what he was given and never buys.

Yes, I know the Delta people as well because I used to buy/test/etc their gear. But I never asked them about any Tesla connections.

The early Powerwalls were SolarEdge inverters.

It is quite probable that early Powerpacks (commercial scale) and Megapacks (utility scale) were Delta.

 

[trayloader]

On another note here’s a playmate for
The next time. TEH Bill Miller, IMHO always overrated. Of course promoted by Henry Blodget/BI

Legendary investor Bill Miller says he's shorting Tesla because the EV maker has a looming competition problem: 'If it goes up, I'll short more'

"The difference between Tesla and other technology stocks is it's selling into a bad business. The auto industry globally is a bad business."

markets.businessinsider.com