Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

I see that 'birds STILL aren't real:

Elon, who only sells what he was given and never buys.

Weak FUD quickly disproven by 10 easy seconds of Googling:

• Elon Musk spends his own money to buy Tesla shares, again | money.cnn.com | 2018-06-14
• Elon Musk Confirms He Bought $25 Million in Tesla Stock Last Week | barrons.com | 2019-05-07
• Elon Musk Bought $10 Million of Tesla Shares on Valentine's Day | bnnbloomberg.ca | 2020-02-20

Elon made Tesla stock purchases in the multi-million dollar range each year while Tesla was ramping to become the major Automaker that they are now (factories on 3 continents, and counting). That's confidence in your company! ("last out" doesn't mean "none out, ever")

Cheers!

P.S. Thanks to MODS who cleaned up this thread by removing the pigeon droppings. ;

 

[Artful Dodger]

So CPI came in good this morning....ANNNNDDD the market tanks.

Yep, that makes sense!

It's just Technical trading to tag the 10-day moving average, and maybe shake out a few weak hands. Also an opportunity for hedgies to get on the right side of the news, if they were betting on CPI coming in hot:

 

[Gigapress]

Now let's pull up that Tesla cost graphic in the Tesla marketing brochure. I've added a scale bar on the cost axis (green blocks) and plotted the line for $2650, and we can also see that Tesla are suggesting that this system should cost $2810. It turns out that is a 6% cost overstatement in Tesla's advantage. Funny that.

That of course means that the LCOE calculation will shift by 6%. (for now assume those brown optimiser failure bars are correct, we'll come back to that)

And that 6% in turn means the Tesla claimed advantage disappears on almost all sites.

This logic is incorrect. Even if the power electronics hardware for the comparison case actually does cost 6% less than Tesla stated, that still does not translate to the overall LCOE being 6% less, because power electronics hardware cost are only a fraction of the overall cost structure.

Using your numbers for an 8 kW system, let’s suppose that Tesla overstated the hardware costs of the competition by around $200. Does that error increase the lifetime LCOE estimates by 6% ($0.007/kWh per Tesla’s white paper)? No. $200 is on the order of 1% of the total ~$20k upfront pre-subsidy cost of a typical 8 kW rooftop solar project.

An 8 kW system can be expected to generate at least about 30 kWh per day or 11,000 kWh per year. In the first ten years that $200 amortizes to about $0.002/kWh if we throw in some interest costs and assume some efficiency degradation. The system will be productive much longer than 10 years of course.

There are other factors to consider that might bring into doubt Tesla’s claimed overall cost savings but this particular argument is flawed.

 

[Bouboule]

Let him keep shorting, maybe they’ll wind up wearing a barrel like in the old cartoons.

Becarefull with articles, it’s not always as it seems. He could be a Bull but still buying and want’s to keep pressure down for now. Not saying it’s true, but I never trust anyone commenting on their moves in an article. Only actual trades are relevant info IMO.

 

[elasalle]

Q1 is supposed to be the softest quarter, and it seems US inventory is growing ... so hopefully some TAX credit info and clarifications go up soon.

Portfolio - Matt Jung Photography

tesladata.mattjung.net

 

[Artful Dodger]

Macros Green!
F Green!
GM Green!
Tesla.....

Oh never mind.

@Papafox posts TSLA Options Open Interest (OI) in his thread daily. There's a *sugar* ton of CALLs open at the $120 Strike price, no way the MMs are gonna pay those out if they can help it (hint: MMs don't care about CPI, macros, industrial sector, none of that matters a wit if they stand to lose a buck)

 

[thesmokingman]

Biden is speaking, waxing poetically about how INFLATION is down.

Wonder what the Fed heads are gonna say now...?

 

[TSLA Siempre]

Q1 is supposed to be the softest quarter, and it seems US inventory is growing ... so hopefully some TAX credit info and clarifications go up soon.

Portfolio - Matt Jung Photography

tesladata.mattjung.net

This is giving me heartburn. The absolute numbers may not be accurate, but the trendlines and relative numbers are important. It looks like inventory numbers are higher than they were in December when discounting happened.

 

[vikings123]

Q1 is supposed to be the softest quarter, and it seems US inventory is growing ... so hopefully some TAX credit info and clarifications go up soon.

Portfolio - Matt Jung Photography

tesladata.mattjung.net

I believe Tesla is waiting for clarifications from IRS plus it is very early in the quarter. I have been tracking model Y inventory in my local area and the only ones that seem to be selling immediately are the 7 seater Model Ys. I don't see much 7 seater Model Y inventory.

Also if you go to the custom order page and select 7 seats the estimated delivery date jumps to Feb-Mar 2023. For 5 seaters it says Jan-Mar 2023. So hopefully we hear something very soon from Tesla on the 5 seater.

I find it interesting that there is model 3 LR inventory but you cannot put a custom order for LR. The ones in inventory are priced above the 55K MSRP limit for sedans in the IRA. So hopefully communication/updates coming soon from Tesla on this front too.

 

[AndrewZ]

This is giving me heartburn. The absolute numbers may not be accurate, but the trendlines and relative numbers are important. It looks like inventory numbers are higher than they were in December when discounting happened.

Yup trending and forecasting is what's important here, someone put together a graph tool that Troy has been using

Source: New Model Y Inventory Levels - Tesla Inventory Charts

 

[bkp_duke]

I've now had a chance to look at the supposed cost and LCOE advantage claims in the new Tesla inverter and - as I suspected last night - there is a whiff in the marketing speke.

It seems to me that the competitor inverter that Tesla most has in mind when doing its String+Optimiser calculations is the SolarEdge 8.0kW HD with the associated DCDC modules, aka "optimisers" that are mounted behind the solar PV panels themselves (which are also called modules).

Solaredge | 8Kw Solar Inverter 1 Phase | CCL Components

SolarEdge??s latest generation of single phase inverters are designed using a novel power conversion technology that is based on a distributed switching and powerful DSP processing

www.cclcomponents.com

As it happens we are currently installing the 5kW version of this right now at my GF's property, to run approx 7kW of panels. Yes, 155% oversizing is allowed, and one would tend to do that on a shaded site or a multi-angle roof site to reduce LCOE as you'd never get all panels at max simultaneously. That's why we are doing it on my GF's. (I don't normally get directly involved in hands-on-tools work but I've been helping with some aspects of this job.)

But let's assume we run the mooted 8kW system cool by installing a pukka 8kW inverter. So my installer and I pulled up the price he would give me for the 8kW version and it is GBP 1300. These are kosher rates, not mates rates. To that we must add in 20 optimisers required to run a 8kW system using 400W panels, so 20 x GBP 40 = GBP 800. Now I also added on GBP 80 for these vague "supporting equipment" that Tesla claim are required, though neither of us can think of anything beyond perhaps a GBP 30 wifi aerial. So we have GBP 50 in hand in case anyone is arguing. Total = GBP 1300 + 800 + 80 = GBP 2180.

GBP 2180 = USD 2647, so let's call that $2650 to again be conservative in Tesla's favor.

Now let's pull up that Tesla cost graphic in the Tesla marketing brochure. I've added a scale bar on the cost axis (green blocks) and plotted the line for $2650, and we can also see that Tesla are suggesting that this system should cost $2810. It turns out that is a 6% cost overstatement in Tesla's advantage. Funny that.

View attachment 894845
That of course means that the LCOE calculation will shift by 6%. (for now assume those brown optimiser failure bars are correct, we'll come back to that)

View attachment 894846

And that 6% in turn means the Tesla claimed advantage disappears on almost all sites.

View attachment 894849

Regarding optimiser failures my personal experience is that I've had 2 1 failures on 24 panels in 7-years running across 2 sites so far. (Actually I can definitely remember one - and I've now checked with the installer ... it was only the one). Replaced under warranty in a few weeks - the job was done in less than an hour whilst the installer was passing by between other jobs. That's an 8% 4% failure rate. Tesla seem to be broadcasting FUD about 50% and 100% failure rates but I can't quite see how they run the calc on that. You can make your own call.

Regarding ease of set up, test, and repair what could be better faster ad easier than a one-per-module optimiser that tells you precisely how each solar panel and each optimiser is operating at all times, and alerts you to issues in either the install or during operation. As opposed to suspecting a problem somewhere on a string .... now get on the roof and find it .......

Now I can fully understand why Tesla might want to get into the inverter manufacturing game, and that they might want to do it with a string inverter in this manner. And that the result might be lots of marketing horlicks being sprayed around by Tesla.

But as investors we should see through that.

(plus I still stand by everything in my earlier posts re the strategic and decision-making / very-senior-management implications)

You completely hinge your argument on the 6% "cost overstatement".

Three words for you - exchange rate fluctuations.


Do this analysis without assuming someone is in the UK, and do it for the US customer in USD, and your argument evaporates regarding "cost overstatement". Plus, these numbers could have been SPOT ON when the white paper was written. There have been a lot of currency fluctuations in just the past 6 months. The publication date is just listed as "2022". That covers a TON of ground on currency fluctuations, as 2022 was one of the most volatile since 2008.


EDIT - ninja'd by @mongo

 

[GOVA]

Biden is speaking, waxing poetically about how INFLATION is down.

Wonder what the Fed heads are gonna say now...?

Whatever the MMs will ask them to do.

 

[StealthP3D]

I don't see the point of producing M3 at GF4 - Europe doesn't buy sedans much, we buy hatch-backs. M3 adds nothing over the MY, they are very similar size externally, but the MY is much more practical

I think "Europe" might not mean what you think:

Diplomats prefer sedans over hatchbacks. /s

Seriously, 3,690 Model 3 sales in one country in one month argues against "Europe" not buying sedans much. I'm sure in Europe, like the US, the Model Y will be wildly more popular than the Model 3. That's to be expected and is one reason why Model Y was the first Tesla to be produced at GigaBerlin. However, Tesla will sell millions of Model 3 in Europe, just as BMW has made a very good business out of selling millions of sedans in Europe.

The Model 3 will put the Model Y to shame for anyone who travels extensively on the Autobahn. I've never been in a car that slipped through the air so easily at faster freeway speeds as the Model 3. This reduces charging stops and charging time to a minimum and reduces the cost of long-distance travel by a significant amount. Cornering on curvy roads is a night and day difference and plenty of Europeans care about the driving experience and, like me, have a bias against SUV's and crossovers like the Model Y. I'm an efficiency freak.

Tesla's unreleased compact is not going to compete directly with the Model 3 (it will be much smaller inside than the Model 3) and GigaBerlin is large enough to put all three into production there. There is no doubt in my mind that the Model 3 will be built at GigaBerlin, it's just a matter of whether Tesla's compact car will be ready for production before the Model 3 Highlander update is ready to go to production. I'm guessing the updated Model 3 might be ready first.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Tesla may have additional sales to UK, European Police Forces. I particularly like the visibility this would ensure, and anti-FUD message. I'm sure once a few Teslas are in service in a Force (each county roughly - loads), they'll prove to be popular with Police drivers and then health benefits will be publicised by their union(s).

The root of this hopium is that BMWs are no longer to be sold to UK Police Forces. BMWs are very commonly used by UK Police.

The actual cause is one or more of these reasons

1. BMW UK are restructuring (moving away from expensive London dealership)
2. BMW UK are short of stock & are concentrating on individual buyers & corporate customers
3. "The news comes one year after police forces around the UK were instructed not to use BMW patrol cars fitted with the brand’s N57 engine in any high-speed pursuits due to safety concerns. Neither BMW nor the police would specify what the issue was, but BMW was adamant that it didn’t affect civilian cars and was only due to the “particular way in which the police operate these high-performance vehicles”."

BMWs are probably firm favourites with lots of European Police Forces - might see other countries take a similar lead. I can't really believe that BMW would walk away from long-established relationships which are a form of advertising.

 

[BornToFly]

Lucid up >2% on the news that it only delivered 60% of the 7180 cars it produced in all of 2022....

The Market is controlled by crooks and morons.

 

[Nocturnal]

I'm sure you guys also have the same experience of having so much PTSD over FUD that you assume every article on EVs will wind up being a hit piece on Tesla or even all EVs in general. It's such a nice surprise when that's not the case. Range loss in 20F temps.

Some EVs lose a lot of range in the freezing cold—here is how 13 models compare

Range loss is a significant concern for EV owners. A new study found that some lose just 3% in the cold, others up to a third, depending on the model.

www.marketwatch.com

 

[lascavarian]

Yup trending and forecasting is what's important here, someone put together a graph tool that Troy has been using

View attachment 894899


Source: New Model Y Inventory Levels - Tesla Inventory Charts

Happened to pass by my local delivery center (East coast) yesterday and this graph fits how the overflow lot looked.

Could be a delivery just arrived of course. YMMV

 

[GeoX750]

This is giving me heartburn. The absolute numbers may not be accurate, but the trendlines and relative numbers are important. It looks like inventory numbers are higher than they were in December when discounting happened.

Prices were literally $7500 less days ago (if you could find a car, I could not). Who is going to buy now ?

Prices are going to have to come down like in China, regardless of US rebates (which many don't qualify for). I would then expect an explosion in demand.

 

[Speedr117]

Cramer is, once again, an idiot.

If you watched the Monroe tear down of the F150 Lightning, and saw the assembly "line" that makes them from Ford's own video, you'll know that they aren't planning on scaling it up much, regardless of what they say publicly.

And yes, Cramer is an idiot. He used to be good at telegraphing insights from his other Wall Street buddies, but now he just guesses and tries too hard on every subject. And obviously the Inverse Cramer track record speaks for itself...

 

[thesmokingman]

Prices were literally $7500 less days ago (if you could find a car, I could not). Who is going to buy now ?

Prices are going to have to come down like in China, regardless of US rebates (which many don't qualify for). I would then expect an explosion in demand.

Stop it with the logic!




Btw, that poster you quoted is feigning concern.