Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ByeByeJohnny]

Good summary of the Megapack business on Reddit:

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslainvestorsclub/comments/10a4s28

I thought that the best part was the pricing history of the Megapack. Not enough info to precisely estimate margins in 2023 but it does look like we'll have to burn through a good sized backlog of much lower priced units. Best to lower your expectations on sales and especially profits for TE for at least the next several quarters.

Sure, let's assume all solar, and all wind on a continent is zero at once. Let's also assume that somehow all hydroelectric power just so happens to be gone at the same time as will any other alternative power that does exist or may exist in the future. If this happens there are other problems than the wind not blowing that won't be solved by even having weeks of batteries.

It's borderline laughable to think that there will be three or four days worth of battery installed for each and every household on a whole continent. That will not happen (and not be needed) on a timescale that matters at all to us. In a few specific locations sure, but for everyone. Not gonna happen.

No doubt we will use up all possible battery production for a long long time but lets not pretend this scenario will happen.

 

[MP3Mike]

And in any case the UK-GBP version should advantage Tesla so no-one should be complaining.

I don't think that is true, for example from what I have seen SolarEdge optimizer cost ~50% more here than the prices you quoted. (A 400watt optimizer is about $85 or 69GBP, and that is about the cheapest I found. I would think Tesla pays less, but you said non-volume pricing.)

 

[bkp_duke]

I can get a price on the relevant SE inverter today in GBP and check for any distributor malarky. I'd have had to wait 4-hours (and call in some favours) to do that in USA. And in any case the UK-GBP version should advantage Tesla so no-one should be complaining.

It was a white paper with US-based prices in a US installation environment. You are quibbling about a 6% up-front cost difference based upon UK numbers, which is less than the fluctuation of for exchange rates in the past 12 months between the UK and the US.

Related note, in line with the user here that pointed out high SolarEdge inverter failure rates - they have been high in my area as well. Over half the neighbors that had them installed here have had at least one failure (these are large solar systems where I live, usually with 2 inverters). All failed within the warranty period, but are you going to add that increased failure-rate cost in for the margins you are trying to ascribe and argue about?

 

[thesmokingman]

Lmao, CNBC just mentioned Carvana being up a whopping +46% today... they keep doing *sugar* liek this. A +46% move from peanuts is still peanuts, cuz they are down -61% from the high. But no, they are gonna trumpet this sillyness to create X narrative. /smh

 

[MP3Mike]

Related note, in line with the user here that pointed out high SolarEdge inverter failure rates - they have been high in my area as well. Over half the neighbors that had them installed here have had at least one failure (these are large solar systems where I live, usually with 2 inverters). All failed within the warranty period, but are you going to add that increased failure-rate cost in for the margins you are trying to ascribe and argue about?

And something not mentioned, while the inverters may have been replaced under warranty, the lost production was not. And in some cases it took SolarEdge months to ship a replacement inverter. Which could result in thousands of dollars of lost production and/or peak energy usage charges each time an inverter fails.

 

[petit_bateau]

I don't think that is true, for example from what I have seen SolarEdge optimizer cost ~50% more here than the prices you quoted. (A 400watt optimizer is about $85 or 69GBP, and that is about the cheapest I found. I would think Tesla pays less, but you said non-volume pricing.)

I've just simply used the price my installer gave me. For 400W panels.

Ordinarily the phrase is "rip-off Britain" when we learn how expensive the GBP prices are compared with USD ones. Generally we factor 1:1, but since the exchange rate almost reached that post-Brexit things have gotten a lot worse. But then again maybe something is different in the solar game. Maybe in solar the US is the one overpaying for once.

It was a white paper with US-based prices in a US installation environment. You are quibbling about a 6% up-front cost difference based upon UK numbers, which is less than the fluctuation of for exchange rates in the past 12 months between the UK and the US.

Related note, in line with the user here that pointed out high SolarEdge inverter failure rates - they have been high in my area as well. Over half the neighbors that had them installed here have had at least one failure (these are large solar systems where I live, usually with 2 inverters). All failed within the warranty period, but are you going to add that increased failure-rate cost in for the margins you are trying to ascribe and argue about?

Re failure rate I'm simply giving my experience. My installer's is similar, my sites are not atypical. Now if you want some reall iffy kit can I direct you towards some other stuff ... Since the Tesla kit is practically unobtainable here we don't really have an evidence base in that respect.

Re margins, this is the Tesla Energy data. And the consensus is that negatve Tesla solar margins are dragging down much better Tesla storage margins. You tell me ....

 

[UncaNed]

I just noticed June 2025 expiration options are now listed.

 

[ZeApelido]

Did you TMC whales contribute?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1613664409057984512

 

[bkp_duke]

And something not mentioned, while the inverters may have been replaced under warranty, the lost production was not. And in some cases it took SolarEdge months to ship a replacement inverter. Which could result in thousands of dollars of lost production and/or peak energy usage charges each time an inverter fails.

I was going to leave that as my "ace in the hole" if the disagreement continued. Lost production has a quantifiable $ amount, but it is extremely variable.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

Maybe when there is more than a day or two of production in inventory? Tesla may have an issue but I'd say it's a bit too early to tell.

It's a funny world where "two months backlog" is a demand problem. Yes there was a surge and divot across the end of the year. It'll settle out as folks figure out what they can order in the new-tax-world. And Tesla WILL adjust prices if/when needed. I just don't see the existential near term crisis that others are asserting. Only shipping 60% of what you built (Hello Lucid) would be a PROBLEM. This isn't.

 

[bkp_duke]

I've just simply used the price my installer gave me. For 400W panels.

Ordinarily the phrase is "rip-off Britain" when we learn how expensive the GBP prices are compared with USD ones. Generally we factor 1:1, but since the exchange rate almost reached that post-Brexit things have gotten a lot worse. But then again maybe something is different in the solar game. Maybe in solar the US is the one overpaying for once.



Re failure rate I'm simply giving my experience. My installer's is similar, my sites are not atypical. Now if you want some reall iffy kit can I direct you towards some other stuff ... Since the Tesla kit is practically unobtainable here we don't really have an evidence base in that respect.

Re margins, this is the Tesla Energy data. And the consensus is that negatve Tesla solar margins are dragging down much better Tesla storage margins. You tell me ....

View attachment 894994

I can't say if solar is dragging down TE margins overall or not, but probably, and here is my guess why:

Living in a high-penetration area for solar, where there are many many installers, you would think that Southern California would be one of the most economical locations in the world to deploy solar. It isn't on up-front costs, it's only our crazy power rates that really make it pencil out. As our friends down under in Australia have consistently shown us, their price per watt deployed is generally 30-50% lower than ours. I don't know what the UK is (but that is also another reason not to draw conclusions from your prices over there on that white paper for this market).

What I can say is labor costs appear to now constitute the bulk of "going solar" if you are in the United States. TE has tried to reduce those by eliminating sales staff, making cookie-cutter sizes to pick from, less customization on roof layouts, etc.

Storage, as you have pointed out, is a totally different market, and the bulk of TE storage sales is more akin to "large deployments" than things which suck down margin like customized installs, permitting, etc. (labor per kWh storage has to be at least an order of magnitude lower for Megapack vs. Powerwall).

 

[printf42]

Did you TMC whales contribute?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1613664409057984512

The chart looks eerily similar to Oct28, history always repeats, brace for Elon to come in next week and sell a few billion worth to break the stock.

Oh he said he’s not going to sell? Don’t fall for that, he’s a liar, everybody knows that.


/s

 

[scaesare]

I'm dismissive because...

That's not dismissive or insulting.

OK... the above contradiction aside, in your full reply to me you say:

I'm dismissive because after many many years of effort Tesla (aka Solar City redux ) have managed to create a 0.1% market penetration on a product that is practically only relevant to a minority of customers in a minority of countries. And in any case as far as I can see most of the real work underlying the product is either not being done by Tesla at all, or is being copied by others at speeds that even China would ordinarily find noteworthy. Meanwhile the rest of the solar industry took the other 99.9% of the market, then sold their left overs to Tesla for most of Tesla's claimed 0.1%.

That's not dismissive or insulting. That is just the data.

If I want to be dismissive, believe me you haven't heard what I really think of this product.

A few points and/or questions...

Why would solar tile be relevant to a "minority of a minority" (people in countries)? There was some discussion of partnering with builders, and it would seem that in the lifetime of an average roof, there are also a LOT of houses built. I don't think Tesla is playing the short game here... we are talking an adressible market growing over the next several decades...

It would seem odd for such an intense copying effort to be mounted if it were a largely irrelevant product, no?

You mention "the rest of the solar industry took the other 99.9% of the market"... given the relatively low adoption rate currently, the total addressable market is HUGE, no?

Spoiler: Adoption Rates

According to This Article, the US is only 3%.. parts of the rest of the world are in the lower double digits. Places like Africa may not much at all.

 

[Ogre]

I can't remember the last time that we had an alleged Elon hint that turned out positive.

So so true.

Maybe he’s taking his kids there.

 

[elasalle]

Did you TMC whales contribute?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1613664409057984512

So dumb retailers did not wait for CPI
.. but just followed aunt Cathie

 

[Thekiwi]

If autos are a structurally bad business to be in, why is Apple wanting to get in it? Apple would not purposely add a massive business only for it to be a perpetual drag on what is otherwise a highly profitable business. They see it as an important path, albeit a difficult one, to pursue.

Apple gets most of its revenue from traditionally bad low margin markets (various consumer electronics categories) that usually attract single digit margins. That must be why they are worth “only” $2 Trillion. /s

People (like that Shorty McShortyFace) need to learn to separate a company from the industries it operates in and look at individual fundamentals of each company. The list of companies that make high margins in low margin industries is lengthy, usually due to strong brands, superior product & business models.

Coke sells sugar water.
Nike sells shoes.
Starbucks sells coffee.
Dyson sells vacuum cleaners.
Ikea sells furniture.
McDonalds sells burgers.
Etc etc.

Porsche has proven for decades it is possible to be a volume manufacturer of cars and maintain high margins In the traditionally low margin auto industry. Tesla is doing the same, but at an order of magnitude larger scale and with much broader ambitions into many other areas.

 

[Thekiwi]

I think people are waiting for the cost to come down period whether it's through the IRA incentives, which come with all sorts of potential unknowns, or through discounts.

The vehicles were $7500 cheaper in the US two weeks ago with no IRA complexity. Why would someone pay $7500 more today than someone who bought the exact same thing two weeks ago? This is the danger of deflation that Elon has mentioned, people catch a whiff of prices coming down and they stop buying in anticipation of further price reductions. Someone who knows how the quarterly cycles work, if they don't absolutely need a vehicle right now then there's all the reason to wait because the pressure to move vehicles will only increase as the end of the quarter approaches and Tesla needs to hit delivery targets to bring in revenue and to satisfy investors.

Stable 2% inflation is best, it ensures people don't excessively delay purchasing things because it's safe to assume prices will slowly increase over time. Crazy inflation is bad, gyrating between crazy inflation and deflation is very bad for the economy.

Although I do agree the previous end of quarter discounting and lack of IRA for the 5 seater Y is likely a drag on current sales, to put things in perspective Tesla produces well over 10k a week from its US factories, so inventory building into the low single digit thousands is not exactly a “panic stations” situation.

We have no idea what’s happening internally - Tesla may have already converted most of the Y production to the IRA eligible 7 seaters for all we know, and they are flying out the door at a higher ASP (to tesla) than the 5 seater Ys. Not saying that Is happening, but it is just one possibility.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Q1 is supposed to be the softest quarter, and it seems US inventory is growing ... so hopefully some TAX credit info and clarifications go up soon.

Portfolio - Matt Jung Photography

tesladata.mattjung.net

That chart is completely useless. It only goes back to October 20th, not even a full quarter. You would need several years worth of data in the same data gathering series AND adjusted for sales volume. Charts like that serve only one purpose, to feed anti-Tesla headlines.

 

[llirk]

I just noticed June 2025 expiration options are now listed.

My support group encourages me to ignore messages like this.

 

[Thekiwi]

Lmao, CNBC just mentioned Carvana being up a whopping +46% today... they keep doing *sugar* liek this. A +46% move from peanuts is still peanuts, cuz they are down -61% from the high. But no, they are gonna trumpet this sillyness to create X narrative. /smh

yeah it Is a meme stock for sure and not what I would invest in, but where i come from a 46% move in $10,000 worth of peanuts is the same thing as a 46% move in $10,000 worth of anything else.

in others words, a 46% move is a 46% move regardless.

And the 61% fall from its high - not sure that Is worthy of crapping on a stock for, especially on a TSLA forum currently (given Tesla -70% off its ATH).