Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Prunesquallor]

Article is paywalled, but worth reading the screenshot.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1613995166662070278

 

[FSDtester#1]

And not once have I seen @ZeApelido link to his own tweets. He only links to tweets by some guy named Joe.

EM told everyone he had at least 1 secret account. Maybe it's Joe???

 

[MP3Mike]

They already had the $7500 tax credit. So the state they are in is exactly the same situation, but now pure EVs particularly Tesla gets the $7500 credit as well.

Well, actually Ford had hit the 200k limit in Q3 and were just about to have the amount of credit they qualify phased down, and out, over the next few quarters:

Now they don't have to worry about that pesky phase out.

 

[Ogre]

Mary Barra and Jim Farley Friday morning search history…

Unfortunately for them, Tesla doesn’t meet that definition because they aren’t operating at a loss.

 

[cusetownusa]

They already had the $7500 tax credit. So the state they are in is exactly the same situation, but now pure EVs particularly Tesla gets the $7500 credit as well.

Dont get me wrong I dont want PHEVs to get the $7500 tax credit. Still the PHEVs continuing to get tax credit isnt some miracle savior for legacy auto and wont hurt Tesla sales at all and isnt that people in here really care about. Lets be honest.

Was t it called though at 200,000 before? GM had hit it already and ford was close.

 

[thesmokingman]

Article is paywalled, but worth reading the screenshot.

View attachment 895410

https://twitter.com/x/status/1613995166662070278

That's a good offset to the BS below...

On Friday, Guggenheim analyst Ronald Jewsikow downgraded Tesla to sell from neutral with an 89 price target. Wells Fargo (WFC) analyst Colin Langan also on Friday lowered the firm's price target on Tesla stock to 130, down from 230.

 

[thesmokingman]

Toyota doesnt have any cars listed that qualify.

The partner'd Subarus qualify in both PHEV and EV. Toyota will eventually get the same qualifications and on gov site, Toyota is listed as TBD. But if you think the mother of all PHEV abusers will not get a qualification...

 

[Artful Dodger]

44 TeslaPoints to whoever first demonstrates the parallel between what we have just seen from Tesla and what Henry Ford did between 1908 and 1913…and on through 1924.

So what's a TeslaPoint worth in CAD?

"Henry Ford" since Aug 2018 | Arttful Dodger on TMC​

What Henry Ford did was legendary (also scary for some TSLA shreholders including Uncle Leo).

No matter. Elon already said he wants Tesla 'bot to be controlled by a public Company, and Tesla is ideal for that.

The unsettled issue is how does Elon pay the ~$7B cash due when he excercises his 2018 CEO stock options? Those should be fully vested after Tesla files it's 2022 10-K at the end of January.

I'm still hoping E. holds off exercise until he does a 2nd IPO for the blue 'bird and raises enuf cash that way (the TSLA options expire after 10 years, so he has until April 2028 to exercise them). Lol, just over 5 years to go, huh?

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[EVNow]

Lease should help. The company can claim the tax credit and pass on the savings. Thats how I got Nissan Leaf once for $125 a month.

BTW, it also helps higher earners who don't get tax credit.

BTW, just checked Tesla lease amounts. They don't seem to be including 7.5k credit in the leases for now.

 

[elasalle]

I wonder if someone did the calculations to see if subsidizing hybrids - allowing OEMs to limp along for another decade - is more cost efficient than a gov’t bailout in three years.

limping along still leads to having to remove the limb(bailout), just takes a bit longer

 

[Usain]

Lots of truth in there, but dont see how legacy auto wrote IRA. Hell if anything IRA not existing is what legacy auto wanted. Let petroleum industry get subsidies and screw EVs. Thats what legacy auto wanted.

Agree. The IRA is a hugely pro-Tesla bill. Tesla will rake in many billions from all its provisions.

While the current administration is very pro-union and therefore somewhat anti-Tesla, the IRA was written to be climate friendly, job friendly, and consumer friendly.

I don't ascribe anti-Tesla malice toward the treasury department for its (rather odd) ruling on Model Y qualification for the tax credit. The Ford Mustang Mach E fares much worse as Ford can't afford to lower prices.

While as an investor, it would be nice if Tesla could capture more of the $7500 through higher prices, this is great for the consumer. Now more people can afford to buy the best EV. And Tesla will happily ramp up production to meet the demand. This is the sort of thing one would hope you could get from a bill like the IRA. It's good for consumers, good for jobs, and good for the planet.

 

[Electroman]

Electric cars are killing the car dealership as we know it — Business Insider

After Tesla eschewed the dealership, EVs are poised to change the way we shop for cars. Younger shoppers won't have patience for long trips to the dealership. Changes to the car-buying experience won't be limited to EV buying.

stocks.apple.com

 

[thx1139]

Was t it called though at 200,000 before? GM had hit it already and ford was close.

GM has no PHEVs that qualify. I dont think GM makes any PHEVs any longer. I listed all the PHEVs that qualify.

3 from Stellantis (Chrysler)
1 from BMW
1 from Audi
1 from Ford
1 from Volvo

Thats it. No Toyota, no GM, no Nissan. I guess the only one that was in the phase out was the Ford Focus PHEV.

 

[thesmokingman]

Agree. The IRA is a hugely pro-Tesla bill. Tesla will rake in many billions from all its provisions.

While the current administration is very pro-union and therefore somewhat anti-Tesla, the IRA was written to be climate friendly, job friendly, and consumer friendly.

I don't ascribe anti-Tesla malice toward the treasury department for its (rather odd) ruling on Model Y qualification for the tax credit. The Ford Mustang Mach E fares much worse as Ford can't afford to lower prices.

While as an investor, it would be nice if Tesla could capture more of the $7500 through higher prices, this is great for the consumer. Now more people can afford to buy the best EV. And Tesla will happily ramp up production to meet the demand. This is the sort of thing one would hope you could get from a bill like the IRA. It's good for consumers, good for jobs, and good for the planet.

lol wut? The most popular Tesla would not have qualified had Tesla not cut prices. The IRA was very anti Tesla before the price cuts.

 

[FSDtester#1]

So what's a TeslaPoint worth in CAD?

100 Tesla points have a net present value of a 1 month subscription to a Heated Drivers Seat in any new BMW Bev. (CAD and USD)

 

[Usain]

Maybe you are unaware who writes the bills congress signs. These are paid lobbyists and the language has legacy auto written all over it. They work directly with congressional staffers to write the bills.

If you think environmentalists wrote this bill you have to wonder why so many of the $7500 credits will go directly to ICE hybrid vehicles.

There is a lot of truth to that. The hybid provisions are ridiculous and I'm sure the lobbyists had a lot to do with it. Parts of the bill are good. Parts of it are stupid.

I don't think consumers want plug-in hybrids. So it's not going to matter much.

 

[EVMeister]

And not once have I seen @ZeApelido link to his own tweets. He only links to tweets by some guy named Joe.

Joe is just a really awesome Deepfake Elon created.

 

[MP3Mike]

GM has no PHEVs that qualify. I dont think GM makes any PHEVs any longer. I listed all the PHEVs that qualify.

3 from Stellantis (Chrysler)
1 from BMW
1 from Audi
1 from Ford
1 from Volvo

Thats it. No Toyota, no GM, no Nissan. I guess the only one that was in the phase out was the Ford Focus PHEV.

Ford actually has three:

Not to mention Volvo has three:

So maybe you need to do some more research.

And just because Toyota, and others, don't have anything listed now, doesn't mean they don't have vehicles that qualify.

 

[Xepa777]

Mod: This is a gray area. If you are doing it to self-promote and drive people to another platform, yes, it's against policy. If it's a quick way to disseminate timely information, we don't care so much. But that's subject to interpretation by the mod in question, and we do make mistakes at times. And sometimes we don't realize or notice that it's the same person. --ggr

I'm gonna start doing this then lol. The #ZeApelido method.

 

[Gigapress]

The correlation between orders and internet searches about the price cuts will obviously not be one to one and is likely to be real but modest at best. A lot of that traffic is basically every last person who searched for Tesla pricing in past year or so, and now hearing some firm news, wants to look again.
And also probably every last owner like me who bought in the last 7-8 months is doing a “WTH!” doom search to see how bad they blew their timing, in actual dollars. And wondering about the meaning of that instantly lost $10k or whatever in resale value.
Thank god my TSLA holdings are down enough to distract me.

This is an important point and it's definitely not a super strong correlation and I don't know of any way to test that without access to Tesla's order flows.

However, previous spikes in Google search interest coincided with gas price spikes and immediately preceded the Tesla price hikes in 2022. This, combined with the sheer magnitude of the today's wave of searching and the fact that inventory is vanishing all over the world, builds a case that changes in search interest are reasonably informative proxies for changes in Tesla vehicle demand.