Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Quesder]

I'm so glad they lowered prices on Tesla cars. That'll make it more likely that you all slow down for pedestrians crossing the street according to the study.

If you drive an expensive car you're probably a jerk, scientists say | CNN

The science is looking pretty unanimous on this one: Drivers of expensive cars are the worst.

www.cnn.com

That is more than 36% decreases

 

[Singuy]

Yea, gonna rant AGAIN on this point (not at you @OrthoSurg but) at the pissed off owners of new Tesla’s who suddenly feel they are worse off than, well, some poor soul who’s home was bombed in Ukraine.

Since when did consumers in a free market economy suddenly expect to be deserving of some “bad timing” refund because someone else, somewhere, had better random chance timing of a purchase.

Prior to their purchase of their Tesla’s last month, did any of them ever buy an ICE from a dealer at some point in the past?

And they know beyond reasonable doubt that their particular ICE purchase was the cheapest one compared to all the others in North America for that make/model/options and that price wasn’t higher than ANYONE else that month.

I really wish some people in the first world would have some perspective.

Rant over.

Technically a lot of people who got the discount EOY saw their car value went up by 7500 for a good 12 days. Didn't sell at the top is not Tesla's fault.

Also if there's someone to blame, blame the government for sacking the MY LR AWP with a low pricing cap. Tesla would most likely kept the Y the same price or just slightly lower + IRA.

 

[Nolimits]

My brother has an EV6 on order. With the price drop, he has now ordered a MY, but is thinking of just getting the EV6 because of the "better ride quality, lack of proximity sensors on the Tesla, and Phantom braking, " etc. If you have owned an EV6, can you please private message me your thoughts so I can give him a better comparison between the two cars? Thanks.

He will eventually regret it once his purchase euphoria wears off. Your car will keep updating and stay relevant.

 

[advocate8]

A big part, really the biggest part is to drive prices of EVs down so more people can afford and manufacturers produce even more. Just so happens Tesla is furthest along. In 2022 Tesla had a huge factory that produced what 50K cars. That same factory will build what between 300-500K cars. That will likely be more than the rest of the competition combined and then you add in the 500K cars from Fremont.

Exactly. Or give a leg up to manufacturers making less expensive EVs is another way of looking at it…
The goal is proliferation of EV’s not perceived fairness to those buying expensive ones.
Me, I think if they want to popularize EV’s the govt’s money would be better spent if it all went to developing a larger network of more reliable chargers that works as well as Teslas.
That’s a current and prob long-term bottleneck.

 

[FSDtester#1]

That is more than 36% decreases

I'm so glad they lowered prices on Tesla cars. That'll make it more likely that you all slow down for pedestrians crossing the street according to the study.

If you drive an expensive car you're probably a jerk, scientists say | CNN

The science is looking pretty unanimous on this one: Drivers of expensive cars are the worst.

www.cnn.com

Thank you CNN.
Until I read that article I thought this forum was filled with nice people from around the world who were interested in making a sustainable and healthier future for humanity. Turns out we, (self included) are just "Jerks"
Informative.... /s

 

[unk45]

I had a white MYLR scheduled for delivery this month. My wife and I had discussed red in the past and I saw a red inventory model with white interior and everything else we wanted.

Decided to pull the trigger and took delivery this past Saturday. Obviously my timing could’ve been better, but I’m quite confident my Tesla holdings will more than make up for this “hit” I took.

Also, the vehicle is fantastic — the only flaw being some paint swirls I noticed in the sun during delivery which will be corrected before ceramic coating next week. We drove it to a brewery about an hour away tonight and it’s a pleasure (we still have a 2018 Model 3 in the stable as well).

We actually traded in a Kia EV6 with all the goodies. It was a great car! The problem is the Tesla ecosystem is just too good, especially when you’ve lived with it for 4 years.

I’m excited for everyone that will be able to afford these amazing machines.

View attachment 895509

I understand that perfectly. Only people who have experienced Tesla and non-Tesla really understand the value of OTA updates, service diagnostics and, in the event of service, generally knowledgeable technicians. As a Volvo XC40 recharge and Model S Plaid owner The difference in the overall support structure is striking. Further the systems integration for Tesla is light-years ahead of others. Still carrying a physical key, an app that has not much function when it works, etc are large issues that are invisible to those who haven't had Tesla.

I distinctly do not think Tesla is perfect, nor do I think that Apple is perfect. Both, however, have an integrated ecosystem that makes life easier in ways that competitors cannot match. Add plug&play Superchargers and charging station continuous display on the map... now I realize I did not know how much value all that had until I bought the Volvo. Now I wait for a new Tesla, T3XY, I'll happily take the first one just as soon as I can. Sadly Tesla does not yet sell to the market where the Volvo lives.

 

[StealthP3D]

however to avoid a bunch of pissed off people I was wondering if decreasing the prices incrementaly 2-3% monthly over 6 months could have pissed less customers in the process. I realize the point was to qualify for the EV rebate however I am trying to be devils advocate for all the people complaining online. The price increases were incremental so I am trying to figure out the Tesla argument to drop the price suddenly instead of small steps.

Why would you want to advocate for a bunch of crybabies? I'm sure they weren't thanking Tesla every time they raised prices and wondering how they were ever going to pay them back for the free value being sent their way. At some point car buyers have to act like adults.

There's a good economic reason why Tesla doesn't drop prices incrementally and it's the same reason why deflation is terrible for the economy. You might think lower prices would be a good thing but when prices are dropping on a regular basis, people start to anticipate things will become cheaper in the future so they stop buying them, waiting for cheaper prices. This creates a vicious cycle where consumers waiting for the price to drop create a lack of demand which causes further price decreases, etc.

Tesla did this the right way and even left some room to for a couple of small price raises to stoke demand in the future. I know that sounds strange, but incremental price raises signal to buyers that prices might go even higher.

 

[navguy12]

Thanks for this elasalle! Does anybody have a chart that compares Tesla inventory to the OEMs? I have to believe that the comparison would show Tesla with much lower numbers.

A better metric IMO would be days (of production) of inventory.

For example, if inventory is 1,900 units, how many days worth of production does that represent?

 

[unk45]

Uh, no, PHEVs aren't "friendly" when most owners never plug them in, power them with gasoline only, and drag around 200 lbs of batteries which are rarely charged from the grid. PHEVs are a boondoggle which might have made sense in 2010, but certainly does not in 2023 (or 2033, which is the planned life of IRA). Nope.

At my local shopping center this AM, the six charging stations had one Audi, two BMW 3 series, two Volvo XC40 recharge and a Taycan. Every charging station I see has PHEV's present. Maybe most never use charging, but many do. Obviously anecdotal observations don't have much value. I rather suspect that PHEV use of convenience charging is more than the rarity that would justify rating them "a boondoggle'. Rebates for them is another matter entirely, seems foolish when BEV are so accessible.

 

[Singuy]

My brother has an EV6 on order. With the price drop, he has now ordered a MY, but is thinking of just getting the EV6 because of the "better ride quality, lack of proximity sensors on the Tesla, and Phantom braking, " etc. If you have owned an EV6, can you please private message me your thoughts so I can give him a better comparison between the two cars? Thanks.

If he doesn't mind getting stranded using public chargers then go for it! My friend was stranded multiple times, or dealt with fighting people who cut in line plus 2hr long wait time.

 

[Prunesquallor]

I don’t know about you all, but Ross' arguments are not working for me.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1614290665860648961

 

[snellenr]

Give them 1-3 years of free autopilot/FSD
Doesn’t cost anything…

Next supercharger points , solar, power wall install points, insurance discounts etc ...

"1-3 years of free autopilot" costs Tesla $2400-$7200 of lost subscription revenue...

 

[elasalle]

"1-3 years of free autopilot" costs Tesla $2400-$7200 of lost subscription revenue...

What’s the AP/ FSD take rate?
Would only be true if everyone is subscribing

Also more FSD means more data collection
Cheers!!

 

[wipster]

My brother has an EV6 on order. With the price drop, he has now ordered a MY, but is thinking of just getting the EV6 because of the "better ride quality, lack of proximity sensors on the Tesla, and Phantom braking, " etc. If you have owned an EV6, can you please private message me your thoughts so I can give him a better comparison between the two cars? Thanks.

There was a post on this thread (that I can't find now) by someone who had an EV6 but had a new 3 or Y on order because, even though the EV6 was a great car, they missed the Tesla infrastructure... I would assume that the use of Superchargers would be paramount in his assessment. You could take your brother out to show him the available fast charge SC's available, which are up 100% of the time, vs. the chargers the EV6 would have to use. Plus OTA software updates, the come to the dealer recalls the EV6 would have to utilize, etc.

The EV6 and the Ioniq6 are fine cars for sure, but missing out on the Tesla infrastructure would be a deal breaker for me.

Edit: See @unk45 's post above. I didn't go back far enough!

 

[aubreymcfato]

I never visualized how many cars were produced by each factory... There's A LOT of room to grow in 2023.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1614060548571947015

 

[Hiline]

Why would you want to advocate for a bunch of crybabies? I'm sure they weren't thanking Tesla every time they raised prices and wondering how they were ever going to pay them back for the free value being sent their way. At some point car buyers have to act like adults.

There's a good economic reason why Tesla doesn't drop prices incrementally and it's the same reason why deflation is terrible for the economy. You might think lower prices would be a good thing but when prices are dropping on a regular basis, people start to anticipate things will become cheaper in the future so they stop buying them, waiting for cheaper prices. This creates a vicious cycle where consumers waiting for the price to drop create a lack of demand which causes further price decreases, etc.

Tesla did this the right way and even left some room to for a couple of small price raises to stoke demand in the future. I know that sounds strange, but incremental price raises signal to buyers that prices might go even higher.

This is brilliant. I don’t know who Elon Musk hired into their strategy team, but they’ve been making very smart moves.

 

[navguy12]

He will eventually regret it once his purchase euphoria wears off. Your car will keep updating and stay relevant.

…and if long distance car travel is a regular thing as well.

 

[Singuy]

"1-3 years of free autopilot" costs Tesla $2400-$7200 of lost subscription revenue...

Not if the person was not going to buy FSD anyways. I think giving people free FSD for a few month is a good way to advertise. The anticipation for new updates and watching the car improve is all part of the fun and has became addictive to many people.

 

[trayloader]

Isn’t it too late to be thinking about capitulation- when Tesla has already been decapitated- down 70% in one year

Also read is inflation winding down- maybe one more.25 point interest hike in feb and then done

Either just HODL or buy more when there is blood on the streets

We reached the bottom IMHO.

A massive iron bottom made of competing metal no matter ICE or BEV brands.

The Chinese EV Brands in the US are effed. No compelling products. Sceptizism.
BMW is infantile in the Alfa days indifferent from Mini (CES). Benz over the top arrogant, also non compelling, with EQE being a major flop, Heck the full EQ line. Now they need charging stations with a (falling) star so they feel special. What a joke.

They are all trapped. Slept.
Pressured their designers and engineers with lackluster compromises.
While VW is turning into a energy company. The only safe haven left while Porsche is rolling over their other brands.

This legendary comparison comes to mind:

The only non joke: with 44 BILLION stuck into Tesla, we wouldn’t have a „dead cat bounce“ by the competition and the Tesla service would be stellar. But it will come anyway. Great times.
Next week they will understand.

 

[capster]

The legacy automakers are dead fish the way things are. They will rack up billions in losses before they can produce EVs in any significant numbers. And by that time Tesla will have expanded and optimized production so significantly that they will beat everyone else on price, not to mention the technologies that will likely be still a few years ahead.

Their only way out of the path to bankruptcy is to appeal to Congress for aid. Congress may need to modify IRA to benefit Tesla less. With this divided Congress I don’t know how quickly the legacy automakers will get it. If the government support doesn’t come by the end of 2024, the game is over. Tesla will be making 20B in profit and Ford and GM will be out of cash trying to slash prices and boosting production to catch up.

The first time I bought TSLA was in early 2013 and I have never been this bullish on the stock.

The only reason I was asking about a PT expectation is to know when to sell when the stock becomes overbought. I am generally decent at buying at the right time but trying to learn to sell at the right time too.

Many, including myself, feel that trying to time the market isn’t a great strategy.

I’ve shared my criteria for deciding when to sell earlier on this thread:

One of my siblings bought TSLA in part because I’ve been so bullish. He had at times, though no longer, asked if he should sell. I told him my four questions for deciding when to sell an investment. If any response is a "yes," then sell (or don’t buy in the first place):

1) Do you consider any of the company’s products, leadership or actions morally deficient? I drink wine, but would not own a winery as I would not like to be part of selling an addictive substance for example.

2) Do you need the money and have no alternative than to sell?

3) Has your investment thesis changed? For example, you don’t believe the company will execute as well as you had thought.

4) Have you found a better investment factoring in capital gains taxes and whatnot?

3 & 4 are interrelated. There are myriad considerations, for example regulations, too. The various considerations might be bundled in different ways into different questions.

For me, these four questions suffice. YMMV, not advice.