People who routinely tow big loads, like horse trailers, or fifth wheels, buy an F350 dually, not an F150. There's no EV in the market that can take on an F350 dually ... yet.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
People who routinely tow big loads, like horse trailers, or fifth wheels, buy an F350 dually, not an F150. There's no EV in the market that can take on an F350 dually ... yet.
Imagine a next gen Model S and X on said cheaper to make platform. The profit margins would be BANK!
Olle
Active Member
I love what you write because many of us are thinking it but it sounds so crazy that almost nobody dare say it. I think only some of it is true though. Wether pushing Tesla's competitors into bankruptcy helps or harms the mission of transitioning the world to sustainable transport depends entirely on which competitors and what time frame you are talking about.
If you are talking about pure EV players like Lucid, Rivian, NIO and Xpeng, I can't imagine that putting them out of business would help the transition in any way.
Legacy OEM is helping the transition now and has been helping for a couple of years, because they are motivating battery manufacturers and their suppliers such as miners and processing companies to scale up their operations. That scaling process seem to have reached escape velocity, which would have taken much longer for Tesla to promote on their own. They have also gotten a lot of charging networks off the ground, albeit pretty lame and unreliable compared to Tesla's. The anti EV campaigns, lobbying and spin doctoring have for sure been a drag but no too bad compared to what's coming. They haven't taken the EV transition that seriously. Yet.
From now on though, I agree with you that it would benefit the transition if Legacy OEM closed shop. As ICE sales keep collapsing and they come under increasing competition from the serious EV manufacturers, they will eventually get called on their loans and forced to completely stop any unprofitable operations, e.g. their EV production. The last desperate years will therefore focus on 100% ICE manufacturing and big time anti EV lobbying. If we think the pro smoking campaigns were bad, that was a breeze compared to what's coming. This time around there is much more money and political muscle at play. The sooner it's over the better.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
The trucks used for heavy frequent towing do burn a lot more fuel per vehicle but they are outnumbered by trucks primarily used for personal transportation by one or two orders of magnitude. It’s better for profits and for the mission to start with a single truck that crushes the majority of the truck market and scale up production until market saturation. This will make a far bigger overall impact on fuel demand. Also, the Cybertruck will win over many customers who currently are buying large SUVs. It checks a lot of the boxes for people who are buying Tahoes, Suburbans and Explorers. This makes the total addressable market for this one vehicle even bigger, enabling faster scaling and lower costs.
Most work trucks that do tow and haul are not going long distances. They’re driven locally to a job site where someone works for a while (or all day) before moving on. The vast majority of the US and Canadian population lives in urban, suburban and small town settings and drives works trucks less than maybe 150 miles per day. Cybertruck will serve this segment just fine.
Another reason to push a focus on heavy duty towing trucks some more years into the future is the technical difficulty of making such a truck. It’ll be a lot easier to do so when the Battery Day tech roadmap is mature and completed, and when the overall vehicle efficiency is better than it is today.
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All of this discussion of the seriousness of a parody account. I don’t give a crap if a twitter account has a blue check or not. It’s now meaningless. The “TSLA bear” you’re all referring to is not a serious account.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Yes, the Tesla Semi can take on the F-350. But over 99% of long-distance road freight is by 18-wheeler because it's very uneconomical to tow freight long-distances by pick-up truck. It's a very niche specialty market limited to show and race horses and heavy goods that are time sensitive. I wish people would stop trying to figure out how to electrify long-distance freight when it's a miniscule market that doesn't use trains or 18-wheelers.
From watching TSLA for the last 7 or 8 years, I have a hypothesis or two.
I posit that the Street acts quickly to harvest dumb shorts. This is why gains happen in suchshort brief periods of time.
I also posit, in a posit that the court should rule on separately and independently of the first posit
, that the rest of the time the Street presses amateur options traders slowly.
So, given 2022 and the 70M-80M shares shorted at the moment Tesla announces killer pricing, I hope 2023 will be a very good year for longs.
I posit that the Street acts quickly to harvest dumb shorts. This is why gains happen in such
I also posit, in a posit that the court should rule on separately and independently of the first posit
, that the rest of the time the Street presses amateur options traders slowly.So, given 2022 and the 70M-80M shares shorted at the moment Tesla announces killer pricing, I hope 2023 will be a very good year for longs.
They're called "hot shots", and it is a much smaller market than Semi trucking, but they haul all manner of goods. Cars are a pretty common load.
Wikipedia now says that Koguan Leo was the third largest investor in Tesla.
It also tells of his very large donations in mainland China, though he brags on Twitter that he raised and made money in the US. It does make you wonder what dues he was paying with those donations in China and, as there seem to be no such donations in the US, where his heart is.
It also tells of his very large donations in mainland China, though he brags on Twitter that he raised and made money in the US. It does make you wonder what dues he was paying with those donations in China and, as there seem to be no such donations in the US, where his heart is.
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FastEddieB
Member
Have you seen some of the artist’s impressions of a possible Semi-based RV? One such:
Before you laugh, I just went to the Prevost website and they have a 2011 model listed at $925,000 (!). Though absurdly rich for our tastes - and finances - there clearly is a market for some such things out there. It seems inevitable that if and when the Semi is available to the market at large, someone will step up and go down this road.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Does anyone know whether the Ford Lightening weighs less than the Ford Lightning?
You would think so, right?
You would think so, right?
If the ability to power itself in a stable fashion, without connection to sync with the tow vehicle, works well, then that is a great step forward. Given the vehicles they tested with, it sounds like it may...Since we haven't started a new thread yet, gonna post this link here. Pretty cool example of how a battery powered travel trailer can seriously extend towing range:
Thor pushes forward with self-propelled electric camping trailer
The groundbreaking Dethleffs E.Home Coco camping trailer has taken another big step toward reality. Parent company Thor Industries and German automotive supplier ZF Friedrichshafen are teaming up to clear the hurdles that stand in the way of a viable production trailer that uses electric motive…newatlas.com
Be sure to read it all the way through... talk about proof of concept!
You know 80m shares is only 3% of Tesla's public float, right?So, given 2022 and the 70M-80M shares shorted at the moment Tesla announces killer pricing, I hope 2023 will be a very good year for longs.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
You conveniently left out the other elephant in the room. Parts suppliers and their economics. There is a reason Ford supported bailout of GM & Chrysler. If any big OEM goes under, a lot of suppliers will shutdown and we should expect major disruption.
A more likely scenario is where legacy manufacturers slowly shrink and EV manufacturers grow. Finally when legacy manufacturers go under, no one even notices. Like how Sears or K-Mart went bankrupt.
After going through multiple cycles of high volatility, there’s a lot of the "free float" held by shareholders, like me, that are loath to part with their shares. A short would be a fool to count on that calculation. But hey, I’ve made my bed and I’m happy to lie in it. As @Artful Dodger says "Buy right, hold tight." Am I right? lol
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Optimeer
Member
This change is probably similar to the recent change to the Model S and X. I expect the letters „Tesla“ in the back instead of the Tesla Logo. Its a pragmatic move to motivate people to google „Tesla“
This is a sign that Tesla finally needs to advertise
(on their cars)The Model 3 Highland update is not imminent. For Highland, the factory is the product. The goal is to implement innovations which facilitate the next wave of growth.
While beeing gigantic, the 9000 Gigacasting machine with platens dimensions of 4’100 mm x 4’100 mm is still quite small compared to the size of the Model 3 (4’694 mm). The one-piece casting seems to be more to be about combining the front and the rear casting and provide a connection/base for the battery pack rather than a casting of a complete car body. The 9000 Gigacasting machine could be already be too small for a Model Y one-piece casting.
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