Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Gigapress]

@avoigt says Tesla now qualifies for vehicle subsidies in Germany

https://twitter.com/x/status/1617879137720623110

 

[bkp_duke]

@avoigt says Tesla now qualifies for vehicle subsidies in Germany

https://twitter.com/x/status/1617879137720623110

I was just reading that below and was about to post it:

Tesla confirms it will now benefit from full $7,000 EV subsidy in Germany

Tesla has confirmed that following the recent price drops, both Model 3 and Model Y will now benefit from the...

electrek.co

This pretty much matches the US IRA (and there is still rumor of an EU IRA).

Wish the "environmentalists" would stop getting in the way of Giga Berlin, because every last car they can produce is now sold for years. Guess Tesla can continue to import 3/Y from China as well, although that's not nearly as efficient.

 

[scaesare]

Not sure if any of that is true. I believe it is closer that IRDA educated Tesla on the proper use an application of the gigapress. The company has been around for a while and probably knows a little bit about metallurgy. Not as much is the smartest guy on the planet that knows more about manufacturing than anybody, I’m just saying they have a little bit of experience.. so are you saying Tesla holds the patent to this process and/or the metallurgy? I don’t think people just order it from a catalog but if that’s your belief, I can’t argue with you. Also, the 24 is just for the gigapress, they manufacture other presses, and I was under the understanding that Tesla works with two different manufacturers of presses

Again, given that I said nothing about Tesla holding patents, I'm unsure why you are asking me if that's what I'm claiming.

You seem also to be ignorant of the history on how the gigapress is a Tesla inspired innovation that they approached half a dozen manufacturers on, and only LK/IDRA responded... and that they built it together. So you may be of the opinion IDRA was the prime mover on this, but no evidence I've seen supports that.

But, speaking of patents, are you aware of the one that Tesla filed nearly 4 years ago? While I was at it, I also did some of your homework on alloy patents.

Are we done with this?

 

[MP3Mike]

Is it today or tomorrow, what time, Giga Nevada or Austin? My Google foo is failing me...

I haven't seen specific details. Just a little bit from the speech:

Somehow I doubt the Govenor of Nevada is going to go to Texas for an announcement about something happening in Nevada. But nobody is saying it has to be at GigaNevada. It could be at the small building Tesla is using for the initial production ramp of the Semi. I haven't seen any time mentioned.

 

[GOVA]

What is TA?

 

[ElectricIAC]

What is TA?

Ask your uncle.

 

[advocate8]

They’ll plug in using the wrong port, disabling any Tesla from backing in next to it and using that port to charge.

Tesla is gonna have to start selling us -- or providing with each car -- long adaptor cables in case we have to park nose in.

 

[Gigapress]

Sure, that's right up there next to earthquake prediction and specific weather forecasts. Every one of them shares the geophysical limitation of recognizing what is a valid signal and what is noise. FWIW, many of the financial industry modelers hold Physics PhDs. I have had a former held of exploration technology for a major oil company, a former head of fault forecasting for a major aerospace company and a former designer of nuclear warheads. The three had enormous intellect and educational backgrounds. These days many of those people also do economic forecasting.
The financial industry has superb modeling technology and talent. The analogy to economics is apt, because no models in such complex and difficult-to-measure areas can account for fundamental controlling variables. Despite herculean efforts and enormous financial resources those areas remain opaque. Don't think there has been too little effort!

Tesla, as Elon points out, is superb in engineering, that includes now unknown applications. Not basic physics, though.

For institutional industry quants doing the type of analysis you describe here, I agree that the level of scientific rigor is far higher. That’s also mostly secret and not my area of expertise so I can’t comment knowledgeably on how good it is so I’ll take your word for it.

My exhortation to do better and apply more rigor is directed more towards actual business analysis, fundamental investing, long-term market developments and technical analysis as applied to individual stocks and sectors. This arena is the only one in which retail investors can have an edge on institutions and the only in which we can use capital to make a positive impact on humanity instead of just trying to outsmart other people in a silly poker game and take their money while destroying value in the process. This domain is where is see the terrible analysis including errors like jumping to conclusions, confirmation bias, frequent lack of any attempt to control for other variables, ignoring sampling error, neglecting random variation, and so on. This applies especially for charting and technical analysis, and I think you summarized well my own position on that in this quote:

The best tools can give substantial value, in the aggregate. For specific trades and actual investment choices they are crude and inaccurate. For very large portfolio evaluation, gross loss prediction or market maker and investment manager risk assessment they are invaluable.

For direct market movements they are far less useful, and for individual investment decisions they yield confirmation bias equivalent to casino 'systems'.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Had an interesting conversation with a former work mate. He did a test drive in a 2023 model Y. (He has been in ours). He was dissapointed in the lack of parking sensors and parking tech for the price and class of the car. I was surprised to hear they hadn’t been restored to the new cars. I though the plan was to do all that with cameras.

Anyway. He has put his purchase plans on hold until he gets some clarification from tesla via email.

So is there a plan or is that just the result of an all vision car?

Thoughts?

What an odd thing to hold up a Model Y sale - Parking features???
So if it doesn't get better, no sale? Then what?

 

[Hiline]

Are there any chances Tesla can compete fair and square with the Chinese EV makers once its production lines are fully optimized in a few years, so that we don't have to fear the Chinese coming in and taking over the US market?

 

[EVMeister]

What is TA?

Tesla Astrology.

(sorry)

 

[phantasms]

FWIW, and I know it's worth zero, here's my guess on how Wednesday plays out. The numbers are stellar and beat expectations. The report shows off some new upgrades or even new vehicle. Stock goes higher [maybe]. Call starts and Elon goes more or less "another great quarter/year, headwinds, great work by Tesla team, everything's going great....then...fed mistake, interest rates too high, things are looking bad for the economy, we will sell cars at zero margins if we have to, Tesla will be ok but doom and gloom". Next day all the articles come out about Tesla might have to slash to zero margins. "Are the days of profit at Tesla over?". Analysis may be silly enough to even cut numbers. End of the current stock rally and we start going lower again.

As a long term investor I'm looking for lower for longer personally and am totally ok with this. In fact, I would consider the above to be an optimistic scenario.

To add, personally, if they don't show off or discuss the Roadster I'll cancel the deposit and buy that dip...and sell puts.

 

[Speedr117]

I'd say it's good from a production point of view, but the price increase drastically reduces customer freedom when configuring a MY now, so I'd also say it's bad from a consumer point of view. Personally I'd rather Tesla just let the price where it was as it seemed optimal to me yesterday.

You can add wheels or a tow hitch afterwards via Tesla accessories. So the only limit to choice is having a white interior with any other exterior color than White.

 

[phantasms]

You can add wheels or a tow hitch afterwards via Tesla accessories. So the only limit to choice is having a white interior with any other exterior color than White.

Shame because our red/white is so money.

 

[The Accountant]

Updated with @petit_bateau numbers and Tesla's compiled analyst numbers:

 

[UncaNed]

Again, given that I said nothing about Tesla holding patents, I'm unsure why you are asking me if that's what I'm claiming.

You seem also to be ignorant of the history on how the gigapress is a Tesla inspired innovation that they approached half a dozen manufacturers on, and only LK/IDRA responded... and that they built it together. So you may be of the opinion IDRA was the prime mover on this, but no evidence I've seen supports that.

But, speaking of patents, are you aware of the one that Tesla filed nearly 4 years ago? While I was at it, I also did some of your homework on alloy patents.

Are we done with this?

But, speaking of feeding trolls that I've long been ignoring...

Also, these T-cars I read about might just catch on after all. /s

 

[Webeevdrivers]

What an odd thing to hold up a Model Y sale - Parking features???
So if it doesn't get better, no sale? Then what?

No idea. I’ll see him in April. It will be interesting to see what he does. He is looking at a few models and I know he has plans on taking the Mach e for a drive. Time will tell.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

for those who believe TA is no good:
nasdaq composite is on verge of breaking/just almost broke on heavy volume 14 month long trendline
is the bear market over? probably so
as far as TSLA, we are likely headed much higher over next several months to years
wild guess, and don't hold me to it, could be as high as $1000+ by january 2025
which would be 10X from bottom $101 or so
this view is entirely based on TA, and since we all know for sure TA is no good, this is just purely speculative opinion with zero chance of TSLA doing 10X in less than 2 years
so, back to regular programming

Why would you make this post to people who don't believe in TA? It seems like your audience would be believers.

I do believe in TA but I can't come close to seeing what you are seeing. Both the Nasdaq and the SP are still in a downward channel. They need to set a higher high before even thinking about the bear market being over. More concerning, the S&P is putting in a downward facing wedge and wedges typically break in the direction of the trend.

The Tesla chart at least shows a capitulation event but this recent rally is way to small. Based on technicals, a short lived relief rally can be expected but at this point the only significant technical is Massive Overhead Resistance. We need fundamentals to power us through that resistance.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Shame because our red/white is so money.

We own white on white, (red brakes ) . It does need some color or trim.

I bet Model Y orders are too far out again for your red/white model, so they're closing off supply (with this new options constraint to get the tax credit).

 

[scaesare]

But, speaking of feeding trolls that I've long been ignoring...

Also, these T-cars I read about might just catch on after all. /s

Yeah, done with that... probably should have ejected earlier...