Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Usain]

Was it my imagination, or did Elon just say that 4680's would be used in stationary storage?
If so, does that mean LFP 4680's are in the cards?

There doesn't seem to be any pause in 4680 expansion plans. The announcement of the Nevada 4680 factory is extremely bullish. The Semis were going to be built somewhere. That's not news. 4680 optimism is the big takeaway.

 

[Atomsla]

Was it my imagination, or did Elon just say that 4680's would be used in stationary storage?
If so, does that mean LFP 4680's are in the cards?

There doesn't seem to be any pause in 4680 expansion plans. The announcement of the Nevada 4680 factory is extremely bullish. The Semis were going to be built somewhere. That's not news. 4680 optimism is the big takeaway.

He did say that.

edit - battery day 2 this year?

 

[JRP3]

Any special reason to post this here?

I thought I made that quite clear:

Posting it here for people to use as a counter argument to "where will apartment dwellers charge?"

 

[Mengy]

Was it my imagination, or did Elon just say that 4680's would be used in stationary storage?
If so, does that mean LFP 4680's are in the cards?

There doesn't seem to be any pause in 4680 expansion plans. The announcement of the Nevada 4680 factory is extremely bullish. The Semis were going to be built somewhere. That's not news. 4680 optimism is the big takeaway.

I think in the very long term, Tesla would like to use as many 4680 cells in everything they can, with varying chemistries most likely. Sure they'll soak up supplier cells of whatever format they can, but the 4680 is by design made to be highly cost efficient to manufacture at incredibly high volumes, so they'll be making IMMENSE amounts of them down the road.

 

[Usain]

I think in the very long term, Tesla would like to use as many 4680 cells in everything they can, with varying chemistries most likely. Sure they'll soak up supplier cells of whatever format they can, but the 4680 is by design made to be highly cost efficient to manufacture at incredibly high volumes, so they'll be making IMMENSE amounts of them down the road.

Exactly. That's why the comment about 4680's in stationary storage makes me so ebullient.

I was expecting cheap third-party LFPs to be used in Tesla storage products for a very long time. But the idea that 4680's will go into storage in the next few years says that we are probably looking at LFP 4680 and that Tesla thinks they will be in abundant supply. Otherwise, they would be putting all the 4680's into vehicles.

 

[Maarten]

I thought I made that quite clear:

OK, clear, guess I was quite a bit distracted by the names in the About section.
But apparently those names have faded away here.

 

[2daMoon]

Once Tesla gets the 4680 Xerox machine tuned up and running it will be like setting up McDonald's franchises at each of their production facilities. Raw materials is the limiting factor and they are working toward addressing this too.

Duplicate, duplicate, duplicate the machine that builds the batteries with the greatest speed, smallest footprint and lowest cost.

With this recipe perfected, in addition to Tesla's other established battery streams, it is a slam dunk thanks to planning, preparation, and execution on the part of Tesla. Particularly with other manufacturers floundering on their battery joint ventures and overall timelines being extended in order to bring in the batteries they must have to merely remain relevant in the coming years.

On another note, in the rendering for GigaNevada did anyone notice the main entrance with the trapezoid and gentle slope to the doors? That matches the new treatment going in at GigaTexas that Joe Tegtmeyer has been speculating about of late.

 

[Artful Dodger]

" Long term Tesla is aiming to produce well over a thousand GWh, possibly two or three thousand. So this really is just the start." - Elon Musk (Tesla Youtube video 1/25/2023)

The astonishing part of the bty ramp is that most of it can be achieved simply by improving the chemistry used. If they are producing 500 GWh/yr of cells at 250 Wh/cell, upgrading the energy density due to chemistry to 500 Wh/cell automatically takes Tesla to 1 TWh/yr production just at Giga Nevada alone! Now add Austin, and Berlin, that's 3 TWh/yr. Done and Dusted!

Best part? It's all been part of the "Roadmap" since Feb 2019 when Tesla acquired Maxwell for their dry battery electrode (DBE) technology:

TMC comment from Sep 2020 Bty Day where Elon talks about DBE and Maxwell

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[ZeApelido]

Once Tesla gets the 4680 Xerox machine tuned up and running it will be like setting up McDonald's franchises at each of their production facilities.

Jim Chanos can start preparing for his next job.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Quick MMD, good sign I think.

 

[JRP3]

Best part? It's all been part of the "Roadmap" since Feb 2019 when Tesla acquired Maxwell for their dry battery electrode (DBE) technology:

More than anything that chart shows how wrong the projections were.

 

[SunCatcher]

Quick MMD, good sign I think.

Looks like a double dip to me. Hmmm.

 

[2daMoon]

Jim Chanos can start preparing for his next job.

... and here I was thinking this was his current job.

 

[ThisStockGood]

Quick MMD, good sign I think.

Quick^2

 

[zach_]

Looks like we might be setting up for a classic sell the rumor, sell the news situation.

 

[15Peter20]

Macros innit?

 

[lafrisbee]

Was it my imagination, or did Elon just say that 4680's would be used in stationary storage?
If so, does that mean LFP 4680's are in the cards?

There doesn't seem to be any pause in 4680 expansion plans. The announcement of the Nevada 4680 factory is extremely bullish. The Semis were going to be built somewhere. That's not news. 4680 optimism is the big takeaway.

I took the "announcement" as the lithium extraction from Clay is maturing. (Has matured?)

 

[CHGolferJim]

A lot of these hurdles could be minimized by a partnership with an existing manufacturer with a presence in the US market looking for a fast ramp to EVs. Otherwise you have to build manufacturing, service and charging infrastructure which takes years to build and test (ie: Tesla Semi)

I imagine BYD and others have merger scenarios for all the legacy automakers most likely to fail in the next 5 years. It’s a matter of price, product availability and politics, etc., to pull the trigger.

 

[jeewee3000]

The astonishing part of the bty ramp is that most of it can be achieved simply by improving the chemistry used. If they are producing 500 GWh/yr of cells at 250 Wh/cell, upgrading the energy density due to chemistry to 500 Wh/cell automatically takes Tesla to 1 TWh/yr production just at Giga Nevada alone! Now add Austin, and Berlin, that's 3 TWh/yr. Done and Dusted!

Best part? It's all been part of the "Roadmap" since Feb 2019 when Tesla acquired Maxwell for their dry battery electrode (DBE) technology:

TMC comment from Sep 2020 Bty Day where Elon talks about DBE and Maxwell

Cheers to the Longs!

Good point, but I do believe some of the battery technology improvements are already incorporated in the 500GWh/year of cells prediction.

Elon says the expansion in Nevada has a first target of 100 GWh/year of 4680 cells, but that this output could improve to 500 GWh over time. So I expect this increase over time to include both production ramp/efficiencies AND improved cell power density.

Just to temper expectations slightly. Either way the expansion is bullish and shows that Tesla is extremely confident they have 4680 production down.

 

[larmor]

Looks like we might be setting up for a classic sell the rumor, sell the news situation.

Sell the rumor, sell the news, and sell the profits. Because the market remains uninterested in ongoing profits for manufacturing, software and energy storage....