Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[2daMoon]

I don't see why Tesla would have that many units en route compared to the previous quarters.

It seems to me that the inventory number should be correlated to production. If production increases, the percentage of production left in inventory each quarter should increase as well.

As I recall, they were still filling up boats in Shanghai in December, which is different from previous years. So, some of that inventory would have been on those ships. There were other reports of ships being staged off shore in Europe, waiting for a space on the dock to open up. This would add to the amount of cargo unable to be delivered before quarter end.

Add to this how they are unwinding "The Wave" and inventory would be expected to increase during the transition.

 

[Singuy]

How is FX still a headwind for q4? Will it be better for Q1? Dollar has been crashing all Q.

 

[Hiline]

It seems to me that the inventory number should be correlated to production. If production increases, the percentage of production left in inventory each quarter should increase as well.

As I recall, they were still filling up boats in Shanghai in December, which is different from previous years. So, some of that inventory would have been on those ships. There were other reports of ships being staged off shore in Europe, waiting for a space on the dock to open up. This would add to the amount of cargo unable to be delivered before quarter end.

That does make sense. Perhaps there was an increasing delay between production and delivery due to the Shanghai factory re-opening in Q3 and Q4. 35k is a hell of a lot of inventory being stuck in transport though. I don't know how many cars were built in Shanghai, but 35k vehicles represent 8% of worldwide production. If Shanghai produced 100k units throughout the quarter, that means 1/3 of their produced cars, or an entire month's worth, were still in transit?

 

[betstarship]

I took the opportunity to see the photos of Tesla 2 years ago:

Q4 2020:

Now:

 

[DarkandStormy]

Guiding for ~30% production growth *with* 15-20% cuts to ASP = flat auto revenue YoY forecast from Tesla, fwiw.

 

[Prunesquallor]

View attachment 899798

I like how they made it a point to clarify that its 50% on multiyear not YoY

Yeah, that’s interesting. Someone on Twitter made that observation a month or so ago, but the general consensus was that's not what was meant by the 50% average.

 

[jkirkwood001]

In advance of the Q4 earnings call (no video link yet?), and further to my PPM in late 2021, here is the best available summary of global auto sales through 2022:

View attachment 899729

My take-aways:

• By one measure, the Tesla Model Y (851 K) is now the top selling vehicle in the world.
  ...or is it? If you combine the new SUV-style "Corolla Cross" sales (383 K) with those of the well-known Corolla sedan (842 K), and Chevy Silverado (574 K) with the near identical GMC Sierra (296 K), both outsold the Model Y. Each of these pairs is sometimes listed together and sometimes separate, which messes with the ranking. Marklines doesn't even include the Corolla Cross in the same vehicle category as the Corolla. Excluding the Cross, Corolla sales are down 43% since 2019!
• As before, I care much more about EV sales crushing ICEs sales than I care about Tesla crushing other EVs. The mission demands that sales of all EVs grow faster.
• The Top 10 now legitimately includes 3 EVs:
  • #1 (3?) Tesla Model Y
  • #7 Tesla Model 3
  • #9 Wuling Hong Guang MINI EV
• The Ford F-150's (5th @ 771 K) sales are down 20% since 2018 (1.1 M)
• The dominance of EVs is inevitable. It's going more slowly than we'd all like, but ALL OEMs are seeing declines in sales of their ICEs, and (slow) growth of most of their EVs. For example, the following have dropped out of the Top 10:
  • Ford Focus (99 K) is down 85% since 2017 (672 K)
  • Honda HR-V (221 K) is down 64% since 2019 (622 K)
  • Honda Civic (386 K) is down 54% since 2018 (834 K)
  • Nissan Rogue (207 K) is down 54% since 2018 (453 K)
  • VW Tiguan (418 K) is down 48% since 2018 (804 K)

Sources:

• Marklines.com, the leading global automotive database
• focus2move.com, another global automotive database. Used as validation only, as their most recent articles ranking global 2022 sales were posted in November?!?
• The Marklines' data was supported by spot checks with other early-January vendor and industry posts. But posts I've seen are invariably country-limited (e.g. USA only) or brand totals, not by individual model. So Marklines was the most comprehensive and consistent.

Caveats:

• The data is not 100% complete. Marklines has data for all the manufacturers for all the large markets. But as of today, there are gaps, such as no Denmark sales figures for Toyota. But comparing to full data from previous years, I'd estimate this represents 98% of actual 2022 global sales.
• BYD does not appear in this filter (the top 10 model sales plus significant EVs), but I do have the BYD Song as 13th top seller (478 K). BYD does not separate its BEVs sales from its PHEV, HV, or even ICE sales, so it's hard to tell how many BEVs BYD sells.

Added notes:

• Largest annual growth rate:
  • Ford F-150 Lightning +20,449% (okay, just 76 in 2021 > 15,617 in 2022!)
  • Mustang MACH-E +1,132% 2020 > 2022
  • VW ID.4 +482% 2020 > 2022
  • Tesla Model Y +232% 2019 > 2022

Here's the data I've compiled (rankings - especially below Top 10 - are only for the models for which I sourced data; beware of duplication with Corolla and Silverado entries):

 

[Thekiwi]

I see the picture of the Semi, but I dont believe any other mention of the Semi in the report. This concerns me. Makes me thing the launch wasnt really a launch at all.

Its now listed as being in “pilot production” on the chart of vehicle production capacities.

 

[Cosmacelf]

So 37% delivery growth for 2023. That's conservative and would make for two years below that 50% average growth, but given the market environment that's probably good and safe guidance.

Safe guidance, and really isn’t the number that people should be looking at is revenue growth? That was 51% YoY in 2022…

 

[wipster]

After a relatively quick read of the 4th qtr and FY financials for 2022, all I can say is Wow! Go Tesla! They actually exceeded my expectations (which were high).

I cannot wait until March 1. It will answer a lot of our questions and will be epic!

 

[phantasms]

Is this the flattest TSLA has ever traded after an earnings report drop? lol

 

[MP3Mike]

Guiding for ~30% production growth *with* 15-20% cuts to ASP = flat auto revenue YoY forecast from Tesla, fwiw.

Where did they guide for 15-20% cuts to ASP?

 

[Thekiwi]

How is FX still a headwind for q4? Will it be better for Q1? Dollar has been crashing all Q.

In Q4 the dollar was way up vs the year earlier comparison. We did discuss it here on this thread quite a bit.

 

[Hiline]

I can understand why the market hasn't moved at all. Whatever happened in Q4 has little bearing on the big picture going forward. In 2023, it is unclear at this point what the impact of the across-the-board price cut is going to be. Tesla will be dominating the EV market in sales, but at the expense of profit. The prospect of significant Semi deliveries this year is also clear as mud, while the potential of energy storage seems to have already been priced in.

 

[Nocturnal]

Is this the flattest TSLA has ever traded after an earnings report drop? lol

You can thank me. I added some strangle options to play up or down.

 

[Thekiwi]

Where did they guide for 15-20% cuts to ASP?

nowhere as far as I can tell.

 

[EVMeister]

Possible buyback initiation or extra buffer for factories?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1618364797552320513

 

[Singuy]

In Q4 the dollar was way up vs the year earlier comparison. We did discuss it here on this thread quite a bit.

View attachment 899810

Ha, they were talking about YOY comparison there huh, not just explaining +- to income.

 

[Thekiwi]

I can understand why the market hasn't moved at all. Whatever happened in Q4 has little bearing on the big picture going forward. In 2023, it is unclear at this point what the impact of the across-the-board price cut is going to be. Tesla will be dominating the EV market in sales, but at the expense of profit. The prospect of significant Semi deliveries this year is also clear as mud, while the potential of energy storage seems to have already been priced in.

I would wait until the conference call is over before we think about starting a discussion about the stock price not moving.

 

[betstarship]

5 years ago:

Q4, 2017: https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/MHQG34_TSLA_Update_Letter_2017-4Q_WKPHOV.pdf
- Deepak Ahuja was CFO
- Tesla Semi was unveiled (alongside the Roadster)
- Largest battery in the world was completed in South Australia
- ~$3B in total quarterly revenue
- Model 3 Ramp was just beginning in Fremont

Q4, 2022: https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/GZR0GS_TSLA_Q4_2022_Update_PVPJAG.pdf
- Zachary Kirkhorn is CFO
- Tesla Semi 1st deliveries
- Megapack scaling in Lathrop
- ~$24B in total quarterly revenue
- 5 Gigafactories delivering EVs