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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
I was going to make a comment about TE, but someone on here pointed out that 'you should not kick someone when they are down'
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
That's because there is a delayed benefit to ASP's when raising prices due to order backlog (those orders have to work their way through the system before the higher prices can add to the ASP's).
But I don't measure Tesla's level of success by how high the ASP's are, the lower the better, as they can maintain strong margins and strong volume growth. And from that perspective, this earnings call made it clear that wouldn't be a problem with strong demand and a positive outlook on being able to reduce costs with their supplier partners looking ahead through 2023.
The 20% quarterly growth comment (at least the only one I caught) was referring to Tesla Insurance.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Yes, Tesla wants investors to focus on operating Margin rather than ASP. Because thats what Tesla is managing.
Thinking back to some of the comments Zachary (I think?) made.
Roughly: We’re focusing on operating margins and not vehicle margins this year.
This plus them walking around the general topic of GM suggests to me margins on autos are going to be quite a bit lower. Perhaps the low 20s or high teens. I think the plan is for operating margins to be flat or increase due to increasing operating leverage and increasing GMs over the next couple of quarters. So good chance we see gross margins and operating margins sag in the 1st quarter but rise as volume increases through the year.
This also suggests to me that Tesla is going to keep prices aggressive through the year.
Roughly: We’re focusing on operating margins and not vehicle margins this year.
This plus them walking around the general topic of GM suggests to me margins on autos are going to be quite a bit lower. Perhaps the low 20s or high teens. I think the plan is for operating margins to be flat or increase due to increasing operating leverage and increasing GMs over the next couple of quarters. So good chance we see gross margins and operating margins sag in the 1st quarter but rise as volume increases through the year.
This also suggests to me that Tesla is going to keep prices aggressive through the year.
Yes I know. I was not expecting a huge asp drop from the price cuts unlike all these other analysts. Even talked about it on Twitter space with whole mars.
My guess on the commercial vehicle speculation is something like a local delivery van. Frankly I was surprised about how well the small battery specs of the Rivian RDV (Amazon delivery vehicle) worked. It only has a 150 mile range, yet that's plenty in real world usage for an 8 or 10 hour shift of delivering a truck's worth of packages. So a commercial local delivery van needn't have a long range, which is great for any EV maker.
And we all know about the absolute disaster of the USPS electrification. Meanwhile UPS, FedEx, and all sorts of other fleets also want to electrify.
And we all know about the absolute disaster of the USPS electrification. Meanwhile UPS, FedEx, and all sorts of other fleets also want to electrify.
Tesla has committed to 1.8M, but if nothing major goes wrong with the world in 2023, then 2.0m is achievable.
Dropping price last weeks just before the conference call made that possible to say that during the earnings call. Brillant move from Tesla team! Get demand through the roof and say January is the month with most demande for Tesla cars in the history of the company. Even my brother in law who has been hesitating for 4 years to buy a Tesla just got in the waiting line since the price drop made Tesla more appealing than ever.
larmor
Active Member
Price is important for a car purchase. To gain multi million car production and sales better to get more cars out. If economies of scale are to be trusted, then higher volume would argue for similar margins.
Yeah, let's all calm down on this issue. From: How Multinational Companies Can Use Cash Repatriation as a Tax Planning Strategy
"If a US company’s China subsidiary distributes earnings to its US parent, the distribution may be subject to withholding tax in China, and taxed as dividend income in the US. Before deciding upon a means of repatriation, companies should determine the tax cost of each method, and any alternatives to mitigate that cost. "
No outright restrictions from China (currently), but there are other possible issues at play. The point being that it is a complex accounting issue that is different for every company depending on their tax posture, in country needs, etc. And by the way, China could impose capital controls anytime it wants to with little notice, so that's a factor too.
So a legit question, complex answer, and no need to get excited about it.
I doubt it. But a partnership with a wind turbine company for auto bidder and megapack combined to go with a wind turbine would be very interesting.
At 2x orders over production so far in 2023, I'm not seeing much brand damage,
Just wondering…. with 80 million shares short Tesla. A solid 4th quarter and a decent chance of a positive catalyst in 4.5 weeks.
What are the chances the shorts start bailing out in the next few weeks? Are we going to see an epic short squeeze between now and March 1st or do people think that will take more significant movement?
What are the chances the shorts start bailing out in the next few weeks? Are we going to see an epic short squeeze between now and March 1st or do people think that will take more significant movement?
I'm not getting this ... Tesla produced 440k vehicles in Q4. Without doing anything Tesla can already produce 1.8M vehicles in a year. So isn't 1.8M units for 2023 a very conservative estimate?
My guess is all money that is above running Giga Shanghai goes to Chinese suppliers for parts to other parts of the world. Just the CATL bill alone is probably sufficient to suck up any excesses.
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