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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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This is bizarre. I've seen this wick down to $159.23 several times now. Would this be someone selling a share back and forth between accounts, with tight limits, just to "paint the tape" momentarily. I don't recall seeing this before, that wasn't likely from someone exercising options.
Quite possibly. Many pre-market trades are for small quantities which would seem to be for this reason, thus my skepticism about the correlation of pre-market with regular hours — although recent volumes may have shifted the connection slightly.
 
Strong Cash Conversion Cycle Continues
Despite inventory increase as Tesla flattens the delivery wave & expands its Energy business, they still has a strong cash conversion cycle.

Tesla carries 56 days of inventory & 10 days of receivables; that's 66 days waiting for cash. But they pay vendors in 72 days.
No cash strain.

1674829295593.png
 
Tesla has developed a natural currency hedge.
Foreign exchange (FX) negatively impacted Tesla's Q4 Revenue by $1.4B . . .but profit was only negatively impacted by $0.3B.
This means costs had a positive FX impact of $1.1B.

Tesla creates a natural currency hedge by establishing manufacturing facilities outside the US. Costs in China were converted to less US dollars in Q4 due to the weakness of the Yuan.

1674829493997.png
 
Right, but those center modules seem to be close to double-wide (6 "ribs" on top, as opposed to 3), so I'im wondering if we are seeing the exterior enclosures the modules are in, and the center "can" holds 2 internal cell modules...?

Otherwise, it seems odd to have one module larger than the other two in each row.

Zanegler on Twitter: "@TSLAFanMtl @heydave7 @TroyTeslike @Teslarati @EvaFoxU @DriveTeslaca @WholeMarsBlog 2170’s for now. Long-range is 3 packs, medium-range is 2. Each pack is essentially 16 powerwalls." / Twitter

Oct 10, 2022
 
Tesla launches a $399/mo lease special on Model 3 with $4,500 down.

For comparison:
  • Cheapest BMW I could find was a 2 series for $489/mo with $5,389 down
  • Cheapest Mercedes A-Class for $469/mo and $3,623 down.
  • Toyota Camry LE is $299/mo with $3,598 down
  • Honda Accord $289/mo with $4,099 down
The fuel savings alone would make up the $100/mo difference on the two low end comparisons.
You missed the #2 best selling CUV Honda CRV Hybrid Sport ( 43/36 mpg) for $349 with $4499 down. Got one for the family.
 
I have been involved in global pricing decisions during my career and here is my thinking:

If Tesla had only done a $2k or $3k price cut across the board globally, the stock action would have been down . . .it would be seen as a sign of weakness (trouble with demand).

Price cuts up to $13k is so huge and rare, analysts needed to step back and and think "what is going on here?".
Conclusion: This is a sign of strength, strong margins, strong balance sheet, market share grab. Stock action is up.
 
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Tesla launches a $399/mo lease special on Model 3 with $4,500 down.

For comparison:
  • Cheapest BMW I could find was a 2 series for $489/mo with $5,389 down
  • Cheapest Mercedes A-Class for $469/mo and $3,623 down.
  • Toyota Camry LE is $299/mo with $3,598 down
  • Honda Accord $289/mo with $4,099 down
The fuel savings alone would make up the $100/mo difference on the two low end comparisons.
Why does Tesla not allow you to buy the car after the lease? I made $6K profit on my last Honda CRV lease. You buy then sell it to the car company at the end of the lease. Its why at last count, half of Honda buyers lease, its money making transaction, should be the same with Tesla.

But why is Tesla doing this? Toyota has yanked all lease deals since the inventory crises kicked in, because they did not need to use leases to move inventory.

To Tesla's credit the deal looks competitive. This on the lower model, the Performance is almost double this.
 
You missed the #2 best selling CUV Honda CRV Hybrid Sport ( 43/36 mpg) for $349 with $4499 down. Got one for the family.

Trying to stick to car vs. car and not including SUVs. But it does make an excellent comparison in price per month.

For reference, the Model 3 is getting a $34/month "incentive" over the Model Y, for the same leased amount ($1,224 over the life of the lease term).
 
This is bizarre. I've seen this wick down to $159.23 several times now. Would this be someone selling a share back and forth between accounts, with tight limits, just to "paint the tape" momentarily. I don't recall seeing this before, that wasn't likely from someone exercising options.

NASDAQ Realtime showded this pre-Market pattern too: (very odd, never seen it before, haha) :p

TSLA.2023-01-27.09-30.png
 
I noticed a tidbit of information on the earnings call that I haven't heard anyone pick up on. Drew Baglino said:
"Our fleet is starting to mature, the 3, Y fleet. And we're gathering a lot of data out of that fleet to understand how we can sort of bring some margin that we didn't know we had out of the product. So over the course of 2023 on the powertrain side, we're actually going to go after sort of some materials where we're paying for more performance than we need, or we have more content than we need, without impacting reliability at all. And that will actually add up to a pretty significant cost reduction on the powertrain side over the course of 2023. So we're not just sort of relying on supply. We're also doing design actions to bring cost out."

I assume he is alluding to going down in material specs where fleet data indicates over engineering, but also that the the 3/Y non P cars have largely the same drivetrain as the P and are as such unnecessarily costly. If so, it means that they would separate P from non P hardware specifications more. An interesting balance act between saving on material vs increased production complexity and logistics costs.

If 3/YP will be replaced by the speculated carbon wrapped rotor Plaid 3/Y they will be separated anyway. Plaid 3/Y Seems more likely now that Semi is scaling up with the same motors which thus need to become super reliable and cheap.
 
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But don’t forget, Adam Jonas IS and always will be, an idiot

I think that you have taken it the easy way. Calling somebody an idiot forever is a big deal.

In the past I was not too fond of Adam Jonas. I was unimpressed by his lack of deeper understanding of Telsa in all aspects of its operations.
I hated his noob questions during several conference calls that were irrelevant and shallow.
I did not like him for all of his lack of effort.

Now, people change believe it or not. I am not saying that Jonas is a saint now but after seeing this video not too long ago I have hope.

Just listen to the beginning. No idiot would say what's being said. To me, all of it has been a transformation that I did not expect.
 
Why does Tesla not allow you to buy the car after the lease? I made $6K profit on my last Honda CRV lease. You buy then sell it to the car company at the end of the lease. Its why at last count, half of Honda buyers lease, its money making transaction, should be the same with Tesla.

But why is Tesla doing this? Toyota has yanked all lease deals since the inventory crises kicked in, because they did not need to use leases to move inventory.

To Tesla's credit the deal looks competitive. This on the lower model, the Performance is almost double this.
Elon announced this on Autonomy Day way back. His reasoning is Tesla will earn more on these cars putting them in the robotaxi-Tesla-Network instead of letting the cars go at the end of the lease.

So far this has not come to fruition. But that's the reasoning: Tesla wants its own robotaxi fleet.
 
NASDAQ Realtime showded this pre-Market pattern too: (very odd, never seen it before, haha) :p

View attachment 900324
LMAO! Market makers made 6 tries to sink TSLA below 160 pre-market so that they could save their sold 160 calls that expire today. Unfortunately for them, the PCE report was cool and the fear of the Darth Powell show on Wednesday of next week is no longer as scary.
 
Elon announced this on Autonomy Day way back. His reasoning is Tesla will earn more on these cars putting them in the robotaxi-Tesla-Network instead of letting the cars go at the end of the lease.

So far this has not come to fruition. But that's the reasoning: Tesla wants its own robotaxi fleet.

With sky high used prices, it made sense for them to keep getting the cars back and reselling themselves for the profit. Also, let's be honest, the vast majority of people who did return their leases just turned around and bought another Tesla.

My instincts is this policy will get updated shortly though...
 
I have been involved in global pricing decisions during my career and here is my thinking:

If Tesla had only done a $2k or $3k price cuts across the board globally, the stock action would have been down . . .it would be seen as a sign of weakness (trouble with demand).

Price cuts up to $13k is so huge and rare, analysts needed to step back and and think "what is going on here?".
Conclusion: This is a sign of strength, strong margins, strong balance sheet, market share grab. Stock action is up.

A price cut like that avoids the "are they going to cut prices further" question from consumers. Large drop seals the deal for people sitting on the fence for a purchase, vs. the slow trickle approach and making people "guess the bottom."