Just noodling a bit this afternoon thinking about exactly what we need to see on March 1st in order for Tesla to maintain their 50% growth for another 4-5 years. From what I can tell based on my napkin math, Tesla is going to need to start opening Gigafactories fast.
If they cut ground on a facility and it takes 18 months before production starts, they need to open about 2 new factories every 6 months to hit their 50% growth target. I'm assuming for the moment that Texas is the oversized outlier and that most factories are going to be capable of 1-2 million cars/ year while Texas is likely to hit 3-5 million a year eventually.
This is what I cooked up on the back of my napkin for the next 5 years. The 50% growth calculation I did here is a bit on the high side it should be 8.7m units in 2027.
I'm sort of assuming here that Shanghai and Fremont are more or less tapped out.
This is just the first 5 years, after this they need to add capacity even faster. I have only 2 new factories here in 2024, but I think they might actually need more. Hopefully this is where we get with MP3.
If they cut ground on a facility and it takes 18 months before production starts, they need to open about 2 new factories every 6 months to hit their 50% growth target. I'm assuming for the moment that Texas is the oversized outlier and that most factories are going to be capable of 1-2 million cars/ year while Texas is likely to hit 3-5 million a year eventually.
This is what I cooked up on the back of my napkin for the next 5 years. The 50% growth calculation I did here is a bit on the high side it should be 8.7m units in 2027.
I'm sort of assuming here that Shanghai and Fremont are more or less tapped out.
This is just the first 5 years, after this they need to add capacity even faster. I have only 2 new factories here in 2024, but I think they might actually need more. Hopefully this is where we get with MP3.