Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[thx1139]

The 'editorial board' clearly haven't read Master Plan parts 1 & 2.

Master Plan part trois is due to be published and they will probably ignore that too...

It will soon be time to release the Kraken!! (for 'Kraken' read 'compact car'....gen 3 platform with half the production cost and huge volume!)

Now it has been a looooooooong time since I have been in a stealership. Still I have a question. It was my experience that very rarely did you go into a dealership and actually find the base version that was advertised to be starting at $27,000. That price was used for advertising, but the stealerships rarely carried them. They almost always had extra add on packages to pad the profit.

Oh also Master Plan part 3 was just about done a year ago, then someone got distracted.

 

[ripper88]

Tesla wants more Tesla trade ins. It's not rare to see a loyalty type discount, but I don't recall one being tied to a trade in before.


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bird link

Spoiler

https://twitter.com/x/status/1620116374994706433

This is only for the S and X.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I think initially it will be a negative, but it might change to be positive after times passes.

• There are a number of people who will only buy/recommend a Tesla right now because of the poor state of the CCS charging network. (Out of Spec Motoring on YouTube is one that currently tells everyone to either buy a Tesla or an ICE, don't buy any other EVs. And their main personal vehicles are a Rivian R1T and an Audi eTron.)
  • Opening the network would take people that are only buying a Tesla now because of the network and let them buy other brands.
  • Of course, it might not matter, as Tesla probably won't open the entire network, they will only open sites with excess capacity.
• Overtime more people will subscribe to the monthly Supercharger pass to get the cheaper rates, which could drive some reoccurring income.
• More utilization will allow for more expansion.
• It gives people more exposure to Tesla.
  • Tesla could even put little blurbs in the app, like if you had a Tesla you would have been done charging x minutes ago.
  • Tap here to order a Model Y. (They would already have a Tesla account with a linked credit card, so ordering would be very simple.)

Yah maybe. We have run into it corresponded with many who would never consider buying a Tesla because of the association with Elon Musk. But the would consider holding their noses and charging their non Teslas at superchargers.

Personally I think the cons out way the pros of opening the network but it’s not a big deal either way for me as long as it’s done right. I think Tesla will lose car sales but maybe maybe gain some fame and a few bucks in charging fees. Meh.

 

[AndrewZ]

I hope so!

I have a Ford F-150 and I'm not worried. Even if I wanted to keep it after I get a Cybertruck I would not worry about parts. There are so many of them on the road someone would meet the market needs. That's how capitalism works (if you are willing to let it work).

People have such short memories and are so short-sighted when they start thinking it would be bad for a company to go bankrupt. The legacy auto industry has needed a shake-up for as long as I had a driver's license. The Japanese invasion of the 1970's/1980's improved the trajectory but it did not solve the core problems with an industry that has been stagnant for too long.

Tesla can solve the auto industry rot and new, more vigorous, more innovative competitors will have to work just as hard to compete. Consumers win when we let competitors slug it out, not when we keep calling time-outs and giving life support to the old, slow and non-competitive world champion before the fight is finished. Artificial life support removes the will to compete and harms consumers. That won't stop people with ties to legacy auto from defending legacy interests, but we don't have to succumb to their FUD predictions of disaster if we don't reach out and save the losers.

The relentless and unrealistic optimism returns, how I missed thee. Not even going to get into all the reasons we can't rely on existing vehicles and third-party non-OEM parts suppliers likely located in China and why this isn't how the world works.

This is only for the S and X.

Yup could see this coming based on inventory trends, the price cuts haven't materially reduced S inventory and X was at new highs.

 

[Ipcress]

The packs in the S do vent through the side box-section frame rails and vent away from the passenger cabin & doors to the front, so it it plausible. I've seen pics of a few S battery fires where flames were exiting from the rear of the front wheel wells.

The comments were typically, sadly, so ignorant and polarized.

 

[Cosmacelf]

2022 BEV/PHEV Sales:
From Mathias Fons - Twitter

Interesting info, but some of their methodology is suspect. GM is so high because of China JVs where GM owns less than 50% and yet gets counted at full volume.

Would also be interested in seeing this chart but based on revenue. That would place Tesla as #1 easily I would expect. It is already #1 if you only count BEV volumes.

 

[Ogre]

Reports are still coming in since November of EA chargers frying cars and in at least two cases welding themselves to the car charge port. I’ve heard EA continues to have multiple challenges with their supplier but have not heard of this one. At least in other cases you can drive off to find another working charger nearby.

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Maybe buying that CCS connector was a bad idea after all.

Have to wonder how much of this is the charger and how much is the vehicle though.

Either way, this is very likely to lead to big litigation. Bricking $100k vehicles is going to bring out a lot of lawyers.

 

[StealthP3D]

Personally I think the cons out way the pros of opening the network but it’s not a big deal either way for me as long as it’s done right. I think Tesla will lose car sales but maybe maybe gain some fame and a few bucks in charging fees. Meh.

I think people who think the cons outweigh the pros are thinking Tesla would open their entire Supercharger Network to other cars and lose control of their own network. But Tesla can only open the stalls it equips with CCS adapters and will retain full control over which stalls and stations are open to others.

Obviously, they would only open stalls and stations when it is advantageous to Tesla for them to do so. Not all chargers would be equipped with adapters so non-Tesla owners could get a taste of the Tesla experience, the reliability and the exposure to Tesla owners, without having access to the complete experience. Some locations could be off-limits.

Tesla doesn't need the additional demand yet, but I see the partial opening of the network to non-Tesla as an important driver in the future for the "Tesla reluctant". It also gives Tesla access to IRA funds to expand their network. These are all powerful reasons to open some stalls at some locations to all.

 

[Ogre]

Don't discount the number of times people put gas into a diesel tank. It has happened and it results in an expensive engine repair if you don’t realize it happened, or a messy drain and flush if you do. Also, there‘s a reason why gas pumps have quick disconnect fittings on their hoses (people driving off while still attached), and no smoking signs. Gas stations aren’t exactly foolproof.

But yeah, EA is a disaster. Somehow Europe doesn’t seem to have these problems. As a YouTube commentator pointed out recently, one wonders if EA is intentionally trying to sabotage EV adoption in the US.

Never forget that EA was created solely to comply with government legislative action. You cannot talk about EA without talking about Dieselgate. It is the love-child of the government compliance and corrupt VW management... the result is predictable.

There was no motivated individual behind this. Management was hired to place enough chargers to comply with their legislative minimums. Reliability, security, and maintenance were afterthoughts. Now that it appears there are profits to be made, I think they are trying to turn the ship. But they have to fight years of horrible corporate culture, complacency, and institutional laziness.

You can't build anything worthwhile on a foundation of sand.

 

[Speedr117]

This is only for the S and X.

FSD Transfer and I'd pull the trigger today (as I bet a lot of people would)!

 

[Ogre]

Sure, they may be losing money per vehicle, but they will make it up in volume.

Ford can't learn to make affordable, profitable EVs if they stop making and selling EVs.

This is the cost of being 5+ years behind in the EV game. Yes, they lose money per vehicle, its table stakes for being a player at the table in 5 years. The choice is "lose money on each EV sold for a few years" versus "cease existing".

 

[AndrewZ]

Of course media is now reporting that Ford is calling people who recently bought/received Mach-Es and are offering to refund the new discount amount

 

[Hiline]

Of course media is now reporting that Ford is calling people who recently bought/received Mach-Es and are offering to refund the new discount amount

It’s nice that they sold so few vehicles that they can afford to do this.

 

[AndrewZ]

It’s nice that they sold so few vehicles that they can afford to do this.

I was thinking that too lol, much easier to do with such low volume

Similarly an up to $6k discount on your EV models impacts the bottom line less when you're only targeting 130,000 vehicles, not that it would be a small amount either way

 

[Ogre]

Tesla wants more Tesla trade ins. It's not rare to see a loyalty type discount, but I don't recall one being tied to a trade in before.


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Spoiler

https://twitter.com/x/status/1620116374994706433

Weird thought here, but does this discount apply to the sticker price or is it applied after?

Right now if I trade my MYLR, I couldn't get the tow hitch + color selection I want. With the discount, could I get another MYLR in red with a tow hitch and still be eligible for the rebate? If so it would be quite tempting. I really want the upgraded suspension.

 

[aswami]

Oh also Master Plan part 3 was just about done a year ago, then someone got distracted.

And...? You think "someone got distracted", and so Tesla did not work as per that plan, or that someone did not publish the plan, or both? Switching from Part 2 to Part 3 of the plan is a lot more complex and huge than switching from Part 1 to Part 2. They can't announce it too soon, nor can they work on it in ways that are obvious to the general public until they are ready to announce.

For example, Master Plan Part 3 will require a whole bunch of new products (and may be services). They can't announce them too soon. And before announcing them, at least some level of design and feasibility work needs to happen in secrecy. Going by what we have heard so far, all this is happening in prep for March 1st announcements.

 

[Dutchie]

I am really thinking of giving up.

We bought our car in 2017 And we love driving it. because of our experience we bought TSLA which appreciated like crazy so much so that at one time we earned as much that we drove the car for free. My mistake last year is not cashing out on TSLA

We were sold on the out Model X with FSD being an appreciating asset. Soon we could deploy it as a Robotaxi so Elon told us. Our car has free unlimited supercharging and the future looked bright.

Last year the issues came. the stock price went down so we were not as rich as we thought we would be. We had some major repair bills on our Model X mounting to over $10,000 (front suspension. Lower and under arms etc). We thought it was a one of thing and that this year would be better. Last month we found out that we needed new front calipers, brake disks and pad. Again more than $3,000 repair bill.

Yesterday we drove and our heater stopped working. just got back an estimate of $2,200.

All these costs on top of a huge tax bill because of all the stocks we needed to sell last year.

We looked online about the average repair bill for a Model X and we don’t come near anything that is being said there.

As much as we love driving our Model X, we are seriously considering selling all our stocks and selling the car and start driving a”normal” car again. We never had these kind of repair bills on our old car (I remember most was $1,000 for an air conditioning repair). It is now 2023 and all the nice words of Elon were just that, nice words. He keeps doing that as V11 FSD is also nowhere to be found. I blame myself for not having cashed out when stocks were high. I never in my wildest dreams thought that TSLA would sink as low as it did. I also blame myself to being so gullible in believing Elon and the whole Tesla story.

It really hurts. I love driving the car. There is is nothing else like it, but having a $2,000 repair bill each month is unsustainable especially if there is nothing like a Robotaxi or appreciating TSLA to compensate that. I am sad man.

 

[zannman]

Do you think it's likely Uncle Sam will allow EVs to put one of the Legacy OEMs out of business? I can already see the angle being put together here.

I think its naive to believe that the EV mandates will impact anyone beyond consumers. Legacy auto manufacturers will be propped up to support the Defense industry if nothing else. I don't see an all-electric warfare in our future, and we can't lose our ability to easily create chassis for military support...

 

[bkp_duke]

Of course media is now reporting that Ford is calling people who recently bought/received Mach-Es and are offering to refund the new discount amount

The details on this are ONLY people that bought Jan 1, 2023 or later. If you bought at the end of 2022, no refund for you.

EDIT - and through until at least when the IRA was passed, Ford buyers would have gotten the old $7500 rebate.

 

[zannman]

Maybe buying that CCS connector was a bad idea after all.

Have to wonder how much of this is the charger and how much is the vehicle though.

Either way, this is very likely to lead to big litigation. Bricking $100k vehicles is going to bring out a lot of lawyers.

Going the other direction and saying it wasn't EA's fault. Why would Tesla take the liability to allow Rivians (this example) to charge on their network if it was a vehicle failure causing the charger to let its smoke out?