Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ggr]

I haven't seen a pic of the Hawthorne Design Center "Supercharger Dashboard" in a while (the one below is from several years ago). You could estimate monthly usage from a heavily used site to get some idea of what it would take to offset with solar + storage.

I think I also saw some stats of overall energy for the whole network somewhere... maybe the annual report?

In-post Mod-inserted question: 372/66 = 5.6 gallons per car? Seems puny, 'tho I admit I'm used to the F-350's bottomless appetite.

The Design Center superchargers were closed to the public a couple of years ago. (They still exist but security will throw you out. Guess how I know.) There is a new bunch of superchargers in the small strip mall northeast of the airport (kitty-corner) but they're just out in the open like most such.

 

[MC3OZ]

I predict at some point the X will in fact be a collector’s item along with a few other Model S configs, perhaps early Model 3 employee cars that had a few specials on them.

I don't know if Tesla will one day stop making the X, perhaps they will make them in lower numbers. But they may never become sufficiently rare to be collectable.

What I hope happens is:-

1. Highland is used to revise Model 3/Y to Mass Market Prices.
2. New cars are developed for the "Premium" segment, based on Highland, and priced between 3/Y and S/X.
3. The aim is to slowly morph S/X into the "Luxury" segment, upgrading and improving the cars but keeping the same basic style. (Perhaps building lower numbers.)

One advantage is a 2025 Model X might be sufficiently different from a 2017 Model X, for a 2017 Model X to be considered to have unique character.
But a 2025 Model X would be so much better, that most would prefer to buy that car.

 

[JRP3]

I predict at some point the X will in fact be a collector’s item along with a few other Model S configs, perhaps early Model 3 employee cars that had a few specials on them.

Eventually likely but not in 5 years from now, probably not even 15 years.

 

[MP3Mike]

You wrote "So, CCS required". But what is the force of law, or of regulatory action, or enablement/refusal, of the word "should" in this context?

That you're proposal would be rejected and you wouldn't get any money. Our are you saying that you say you are gong to install CCS in your proposal and then after it is approved you refuse to actually do it?

 

[navguy12]

Thanks. Our car has 118,000 miles. We like to drive. So now we are in for our second front brake set. All because some ceased calliper.

After some thought we decided to hold off on the repair. Have to prioritize things (first clean up tax bill) We are away in February, and in March temperatures start to climb again. We will not need heater in the months thereafter.

So strange that we have such bad luck. I hear other people also not needing so much repairs. I am really careful with the car. Fully wrapped the car with paint protection film, keep it clean etc. Hardly supercharging and slow AC charging limited to 40A. Don’t drive like maniacs and use FSD beta now like 90% of the time.

Hopefully TSLA is a bit positive in coming months. It can help pay for the bills.

Did you do a yearly brake calliper slider lubrication servicing on your vehicle?

I DIY on both my TM3 and my wife’s Kona EV as a matter of “best practices“ especially when living/driving in snow conditions.

 

[insaneoctane]

The big cost factor on supercharger stations is actually "Demand Power" pricing. If you are not familiar with commercial power pricing, I encourage you to google this and read up, it's quite fascinating how the utilities have found an extra and unique way to screw over commercial power buyers. It's like two cycle billing on credit card interest (you paid the bill with interest, but you keep getting charged interest).

Even if you can't be fully self-sufficient at a supercharger station, solar+stationary storage at the site (or even just stationary storage) can help you cut down on demand charges. In this situation the batteries (or batteries+solar) can pay for themselves in a very VERY short time (1-2 years).

I'm very familiar with demand charges. They are exactly what has made me question if Tesla SC can be profitable at all since, by definition, Tesla SC peak kW service is so extraordinary high. It's hard to imagine that Tesla is under the thumb of the local utility company for each and every SC. It's not like Tesla to leave the cost of something to be so extraordinary out of their control.

 

[Cosmacelf]

The Design Center superchargers were closed to the public a couple of years ago. (They still exist but security will throw you out. Guess how I know.) There is a new bunch of superchargers in the small strip mall northeast of the airport (kitty-corner) but they're just out in the open like most such.

. The Hawthorne design center is right next door to SpaceX and back in the day you could walk alongside the SpaceX building when they had some manufacturing facilities outside. I always thought it weird that you walk around a rocket manufacturing facility. They’ve tightened it up since then!

 

[AudubonB]

That you're proposal would be rejected and you wouldn't get any money. Our are you saying that you say you are gong to install CCS in your proposal and then after it is approved you refuse to actually do it?

No - I'm specifically wondering that which I wrote, which is what, in the context of that bureaucratese, the word "should" means. If the word used was "shall", it is extremely obvious that it is mandatory. "May" also is not ambiguous. But - literally - I do not know what "should" is implying. To me, it could mean that a faceless bureaucrat in Department F, Sub unit 3b has the leeway to approve or deny, possibly as a function of what from what side of the bed she exited that morning. It also could mean someone is guilty of sloppy writing. I also know that in most cases, there exists a lexicon clarifying what a particular authority's allowable terminology means. Perhaps you know, perhaps you do not. I do not.

But remember: this post is being written by someone who oft has written: Words matter. This discussion is an example of why I find it important.

 

[keydiver]

For them to weld together the contacts where the connector is attached to the vehicle will have some particular combination of heat and current (producing the heat) which will exceed the rating for the components. Only then will those contacts melt into each other or heat deforms the plastic in such a way that the connector cannot be removed. (An irremovable connector happened to both the Rivian and the Lightning)

To me it sounds like an arcing issue. With DC power and huge amounts of current, any oxidation on the contacts could quickly become an arc welder. You would think the EA charger circuitry would have some kind of arc detection circuitry to shut things down immediately. Perhaps the manufacturer needs to look at a better plating material for the contacts, or a lot more clamping pressure on the contacts to avoid a loose connection.

 

[Cosmacelf]

No - I'm specifically wondering that which I wrote, which is what, in the context of that bureaucratese, the word "should" means. If the word used was "shall", it is extremely obvious that it is mandatory. "May" also is not ambiguous. But - literally - I do not know what "should" is implying. To me, it could mean that a faceless bureaucrat in Department F, Sub unit 3b has the leeway to approve or deny, possibly as a function of what from what side of the bed she exited that morning. It also could mean someone is guilty of sloppy writing. I also know that in most cases, there exists a lexicon clarifying what a particular authority's allowable terminology means. Perhaps you know, perhaps you do not. I do not.

But remember: this post is being written by someone who oft has written: Words matter. This discussion is an example of why I find it important.

In a legal document, "should" is used to indicate something non-mandatory, whereas "shall" is mandatory.

Having said that, there is another place "CCS" is used. Take a look at page 12:

Until FHWA certifies that a State’s corridor is fully built out, NEVI Formula Program funding shall only be used along designated corridors to construct new EV charging infrastructure and upgrade existing EV charging infrastructure, and in both cases shall reflect the considerations in this guidance. ...

The Secretary will not certify a State’s designated Alternative Fuel Corridors for electric vehicles as being “fully built out” until the Secretary finds that the State’s corridors meet the following criteria:

- EV charging infrastructure is installed every 50 miles along the State’s portions of the Interstate Highway System within 1 travel mile of the Interstate, unless a discretionary exception has been granted;
- EV charging infrastructure includes at least four 150kW Direct Current (DC) Fast Chargers with Combined Charging System (CCS) ports capable of simultaneously DC charging four EVs;

To me that reads like a restriction on NEVI funding that can only be satisfied with CCS.

My guess is that Tesla won't challenge this, and will go ahead with their magic dock.

 

[2daMoon]

No - I'm specifically wondering that which I wrote, which is what, in the context of that bureaucratese, the word "should" means. If the word used was "shall", it is extremely obvious that it is mandatory. "May" also is not ambiguous.

FWIW...

In the 1914 edition of Bouvier's Law Dictionary definition for "shall":
"It is held that it is to be construed as may, unless a contrary intention is shown"

I've also seen elsewhere that "shall" will mean "may" whenever imperitive use would restrict a right reserved by the constitution. (which, it seems, is nearly every instance of the use in law)

Gotta be careful with all the weasel words. Never know what they mean until you find how the court has defined them.

"Should" wasn't listed, so not a very good weasel word I'd say.

 

[Maarten]

There was no motivated individual behind this. Management was hired to place enough chargers to comply with their legislative minimums. Reliability, security, and maintenance were afterthoughts. Now that it appears there are profits to be made, I think they are trying to turn the ship. But they have to fight years of horrible corporate culture, complacency, and institutional laziness.

You can't build anything worthwhile on a foundation of sand.

Now, that is not nice...
Most of the buildings in The Netherlands have been build on sand.
The whole of Amsterdam, for example, although the sand layers deep down had to be reached through poles upon which the buildings were put.

A nice read of things I bet very few of you know can be found here:

30 Facts about the Netherlands that you might not knew. – Netherlands Souvenirs

www.netherlandssouvenirs.com

For building on sand: see number 6.
By the way, number 5: no, cannabis isn't legal in The Netherlands.

And see number 2: the stock market was a Dutch invention.
Which brings us nicely back to TSLA.

 

[cdub]

Now, that is not nice...
Most of the buildings in The Netherlands have been build on sand.
The whole of Amsterdam, for example, although the sand layers deep down had to be reached through poles upon which the buildings were put.

A nice read of things I bet very few of you know can be found here:

30 Facts about the Netherlands that you might not knew. – Netherlands Souvenirs

www.netherlandssouvenirs.com

For building on sand: see number 6.
By the way, number 5: no, cannabis isn't legal in The Netherlands.

And see number 2: the stock market was a Dutch invention.
Which brings us nicely back to TSLA.

Don't trust that site. It thinks Sylvester Stallone was in Pulp Fiction.

 

[MC3OZ]

Now, that is not nice...
Most of the buildings in The Netherlands have been build on sand.
The whole of Amsterdam, for example, although the sand layers deep down had to be reached through poles upon which the buildings were put.

A nice read of things I bet very few of you know can be found here:

30 Facts about the Netherlands that you might not knew. – Netherlands Souvenirs

www.netherlandssouvenirs.com

For building on sand: see number 6.
By the way, number 5: no, cannabis isn't legal in The Netherlands.

And see number 2: the stock market was a Dutch invention.
Which brings us nicely back to TSLA.

The Dutch engineer Victor Hayes is responsible for the technology behind WiFi. This technique has been the standard for wireless internet since 1997.

I'm going to partially dispute this one

How the Aussie government "invented WiFi" and sued its way to $430 million

An Australian research organization owns patents vital to the WiFi standards.

arstechnica.com

US consumers will be making a multimillion dollar donation to an Australian government agency in the near future, whether they like it or not. The great majority won't even know about it—the fee will be hidden within the cost of a huge array of tech products. After the resolution of a recent lawsuit, practically every wireless-enabled device sold in the US will now involve a payment to an Australian research organization called the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, or CSIRO.

I'm glad we won, you US dudes can afford to pay us..

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

No - I'm specifically wondering that which I wrote, which is what, in the context of that bureaucratese, the word "should" means. If the word used was "shall", it is extremely obvious that it is mandatory. "May" also is not ambiguous. But - literally - I do not know what "should" is implying. To me, it could mean that a faceless bureaucrat in Department F, Sub unit 3b has the leeway to approve or deny, possibly as a function of what from what side of the bed she exited that morning. It also could mean someone is guilty of sloppy writing. I also know that in most cases, there exists a lexicon clarifying what a particular authority's allowable terminology means. Perhaps you know, perhaps you do not. I do not.

But remember: this post is being written by someone who oft has written: Words matter. This discussion is an example of why I find it important.

And here I was thinking what's important is that the whole discussion is OT.

 

[Maarten]

Don't trust that site. It thinks Sylvester Stallone was in Pulp Fiction.

Yes, that's wrong, that was John Travolta.
But as a civil engineer I can vouch for the building on sand fact.

 

[ZeApelido]

I'm going to partially dispute this one

How the Aussie government "invented WiFi" and sued its way to $430 million

An Australian research organization owns patents vital to the WiFi standards.

arstechnica.com

I'm glad we won, you US dudes can afford to pay us..

We will never give credit to deported British convicts.

 

[Maarten]

We will never give credit to deported British convicts.

My goodness, what did I start here?

 

[Cosmacelf]

Wow, seems that VW (and Audi’s) heat pump is a dud. It is no better in cold weather heating than a resistive heater, unlike Tesla, of course.

 

[Hiline]

Opening up Superchargers to non-Tesla vehicles has begun: Non-Tesla Supercharger Pilot | Tesla Support

List of countries in the pilot:

• Australia
• France
• The Netherlands
• Norway
• UK
• Spain
• Sweden
• Belgium
• Austria
• Denmark
• Finland
• Germany
• Luxembourg
• Switzerland
• Iceland
• Italy

It is indeed more expensive to charge a non-Tesla than a Tesla, at a Supercharger.