Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Curt Renz]

Schaeffer's - this morning:
Tesla Stock Surges on Ramped Up China Production

 

[FSDtester#1]

So we are almost at the same place as the beginning of December. What we went down in December we went up in January (more or less)

This is something most people don't understand in the general public.
I am certain most here do.
If you invest $100k into a stock and it drops 50%, it's now worth $50K.
If then it goes back up 50% it's worth about $75K.
Hence, a 50% drop needs a 100% increase to bring you back to the original $100K.

Edited for clarification:

As stated below in another post, %'s aren't exact except in this scenario.


I am not stating this to be a Debbie Downer, just to say whenever you can save on the way down, the less you have to make on the way back up.

Or, you can HODL like I do, and not worry about this sugar.

 

[Dutchie]

Yes.

But back then, they claimed that the downfall was due to certain purchase.

Interesting that in 2 months, all of that narrative has pretty much dissapeared.

What purchase?

 

[dhanson865]

Even on a heat pump, 98% of the year is great - but I'm finding a need to run it consistently throughout the day during near/at freezing temperatures. The heat pump I got (Carrier) doesn't work as well as a gas furnace during these freezing temps (specifically in the mornings to ramp up from 64 degrees to 70) and I'm looking into insulation to cover for the inefficiency.

Really wish Tesla sold a home heat pump.

Heat pumps work better at a near constant temperature. If you are going to use a set back temp you want to ramp them up at a slower rate like 1 degree per hour (and use a smaller set back so that isn't an issue).

Don't turn it down so much on a daily basis, only use a severe setback for when you leave the house unattended for multiple days.

 

[cliff harris]

Cybertruck sighting in the wild, complete with side mirrors:

I think anybody who sells TSLA before the cybertruck starts appearing on SU roads is really going to kick themselves. Other auto companies would give anything to generate the amount of free press this truck will generate. And when it does, a lot of it will be people who hate it, and do not understand its appeal, and wil honestly try to tell themselves that because *they* dont like it, nobody else will... such is the way of social media bubbles.

What are peoples best guesses for 2023 CT production?
I'm guessing 10,000 by the end of this year, and 100,000 next year. Expecting to see the first production in Q3, a few hundred, then rest during Q4. Thoughts?

 

[DarthPierce]

This is something most people don't understand in the general public.
I am certain most here do.
If you invest $100k into a stock and it drops 50%, it's now worth $50K.
If then it goes back up 50% it's worth about $75K.
For any drop, you basically need a double to return to the beginning.
Hence, a 50% drop needs a 100% increase to bring you back to the original $100K.

I am not stating this to be a Debbie Downer, just to say whenever you can save on the way down, for example saving 10%, means you don't need a 20% gain to get back to your previous price.

Or, you can HODL like I do, and not worry about this sugar.

Not to pick nits here, but your "double the gain to compensate a loss" literally only applies at exactly 50% loss.

If a stock drops 90%, it needs a 10x (900%) gain to get back to where it was, while a 10% loss only needs 11.1% gains to recover.

Such is the world of % and yes, many are often confused by it.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Those cars are going in and out like a fiddler's elbow

"Up and down like a horse's drawers".

 

[willow_hiller]

Allegedly lots of 4680 Model Y available now in USA (or part of it)

The 4680 Model Y AWD is not yet available through the configurator. So the only way they're sold is via inventory.

Given the LR delivery dates are March-May now, I'm sure these will go fast.

EDIT: Just looked these up myself, and there's new text I haven't seen on the inventory screen before. They say things like "Coming soon to New York for local delivery." And the Vehicle Details screen says "In Production."

So they're not even really in inventory. Tesla is just giving people the opportunity to purchase a Model Y AWD as it's being built.

 

[jkirkwood001]

So we are almost at the same place as the beginning of December. What we went down in December we went up in January (more or less)

Yeah, but it's more dramatic on the way back up!

(i.e. If we reach beginning of December, we'll be back up 100% after losing 50% on the way down).

 

[Artful Dodger]

Schaeffer's - this morning:
Tesla Stock Surges on Ramped Up China Production

Huge surge in U.S Tech macros today: QQQ now up 4.17% vs yesterday's Close: (TSLA @ 1.85x beta)

 

[TSLA Siempre]

Allegedly lots of 4680 Model Y available now in USA (or part of it)

"Jesus, Tesla just added a shitload of sub $55K Model Y to LA SF and NY..."

Edit: I'm not sure if this number is unusual, or a misunderstanding.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1621143159437950977

Matt Jung's inventory chart shows a spike up in US model Y's available, so seems plausible.

 

[Nocturnal]

Someday, after a few violent head-on collisions have happened between Tesla's and various other brands of cars, the press might still whitewash the massive life/death safety disparity between brands, but the neither the national safety institutes nor the insurance companies will be able to remain silent.

BI actually posted an article about that Tesla driver who drove off the cliff. They cited an automotive expert who said that being in a Tesla (weight on the bottom, super strong roof etc.) contributed to their safety.

 

[TSLA Siempre]

The 4680 Model Y AWD is not yet available through the configurator. So the only way they're sold is via inventory.

Given the LR delivery dates are March-May now, I'm sure these will go fast.

EDIT: Just looked these up myself, and there's new text I haven't seen on the inventory screen before. They say things like "Coming soon to New York for local delivery." And the Vehicle Details screen says "In Production."

View attachment 902514

So they're not even really in inventory. Tesla is just giving people the opportunity to purchase a Model Y AWD as it's being built.

Yeah, on the main vehicle (for S,3,X,&Y) ordering page, there is a new link for "See Early Delivery Options for <zipcode>"

 

[MC3OZ]

MODS: If there is a better thread for this discussion, please feel free to move.

I have been following the Tesla energy/megapack XL story and it sounds incredible. One of @Zerosumgame33 (the main proponent of this thesis on Twitter), has been saying that switching to LFP chemistry for stationary storage will reduce costs. However, in the recent Giga Nevada announcement, Tesla has said that the factory will produce 4680's that will be used in stationary storage.

However, I remember somewhere that Elon has said the 4680's would not use LFPs. So, has Tesla's strategy changed regarding LFP and 4680 or is this a potential flaw in the bullish case for Tesla energy?

The TE story sounds too good to be true which fuels my inherent skepticism but I'd like to have better/concrete reasons for supporting or disputing the bull case.

I have expected 4680 LFP since battery day.

Reasons.

1. They literally told us on battery day that is what they would do.
2. Cylindrical LFP is the easiest and cheapest to make,
3. I expect many Gen3 cars to use 4680 LFP structural packs.
4. Tesla are aggressively sourcing raw materials for iron cathodes.
5. Scaling to 3Twh of cell production probably involes 1.5 TWh for energy storage.
6. The IRA provides strong incentives for local cell production.
7. Patents requiring licence fees for LFP have expired.
8. Tesla only reduces costs 6% using imported LFP, making their own that should jump to at least 20%. (Patents expiring lifts that 6% by around 2% or so)

The counter argument is that Elon apparently once said that they are not doing iron in cylindrical format. My impression is that the cathode plant at Austin is for high nickel batteries. So all 100 GWh at Austin is high nickel.

I think that Lathrop will continue to use Chinese LFP but those Megapacks will increasingly be exported. There may be a way of avoiding/offsetting duties when importing for the purposes of export?

 

[Ogre]

If you invest $100k into a stock and it drops 50%, it's now worth $50K.

You make lots of good points. This isn’t a correction, it’s a tiny niggle or aside even.

If you bought a Model Y in 2021 and watched resale value go up and up, is it really worth more from one day to the next. Software upgrades aside, you can’t drive it further, it doesn’t go any faster, the only way you realize that increase in value is if you sell it. Likewise, when Tesla dropped their prices in January, people complained that they bought a car in October and their car is were “Worth” less after the decrease. Were they planning on selling next month? Fundamentally the car doesn’t change in realized value just because it’s used price goes up or down.

When you buy a share of Tesla, it is no different. You are investing in the future of the company.

If the stock price changes from one day to the next, you still own that same piece of Tesla. I guarantee that in less than 3 years this dip will be just noise on the charts. If you go back and look at previous dips, or other companies with high growth, big dips are inevitable and get absorbed by the curve.

Another way of thinking about it. How granular does “worth” get? Does it fluctuate by the day? Hour? Minute? Second? Millisecond?

Maybe it’s healthier to think about it as investing in Tesla and not TSLA. This is my long winded way of saying we over-fixate on SP. Try to buy at a good price. Diversify a bit when people on TMC start talking about buying islands. Buy back in when people start talking about replacing Musk and putting popular social media analysts/ influencers on the BOD.

 

[Artful Dodger]

What are peoples best guesses for 2023 CT production?
I'm guessing 10,000 by the end of this year, and 100,000 next year. Expecting to see the first production in Q3, a few hundred, then rest during Q4. Thoughts?

Generally agree, matches quite well with Tesla's guidance on the Q4 Conf. Call. I'd say though that if they only produce a few hundred in Q3/23 then Q4 is likely to be closer to 5K than to 10K. Limiting factor will likely be the 4680 cell ramp, and specifically the cathode supply bottleneck. About half the cost of a Li-Ion bty cell is in the cathode, so this is undoubtedly why Tesla is building their own Cathode Plant at Giga Texas.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I think that Lathrop will continue to use Chinese LFP but those Megapacks will increasingly be exported. There may be a way of avoiding/offsetting duties when importing for the purposes of export?

Yes, Lathrop Megafactory is a 'Free-trade Zone', which means exactly that for import tax purposes.

 

[Ogre]

Cybertruck sighting in the wild, complete with side mirrors:

I think anybody who sells TSLA before the cybertruck starts appearing on SU roads is really going to kick themselves. Other auto companies would give anything to generate the amount of free press this truck will generate. And when it does, a lot of it will be people who hate it, and do not understand its appeal, and wil honestly try to tell themselves that because *they* dont like it, nobody else will... such is the way of social media bubbles.

What are peoples best guesses for 2023 CT production?
I'm guessing 10,000 by the end of this year, and 100,000 next year. Expecting to see the first production in Q3, a few hundred, then rest during Q4. Thoughts?

Wait… this was on city streets driving around? If so, this is almost certain to be one of the beta trucks Nobody has seen yet.


EDIT: Found it. And yes, very very likely this is the first Beta truck sighting.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1621216667853283330

*** SQUEE ***

EDIT PS: Almost certainly a beta truck. There are significant differences between this and the prototypes. Mirrors and rear window have noticeable changes.

 

[KBF]

Sandy today...

Always interesting

~45-47 minute mark: I'd buy a Tesla minivan in an instant. Especially if you could remove all the seats and make it more versatile. While the X's falcon doors aren't as bad as I feared, I still would rather just have a sliding door...

Edit:
And then near the end, I love Sandy's rant about how the entire industry should be begging Tesla to let them use the Supercharger plug/network. It's true, though - I would not road-trip in any other vehicle I own; it was the one thing holding me back from Rivian (plus I figured they'd have to go through the same learning curve that Tesla went through back in 2012 as they ramped up the first time... and I figured I may as well stick with the company that can adapt quickly when they put their mind to it. Though service was better when they came to my door for free... that wasn't sustainable in the long run).

 

[SOULPEDL]

Do folks know if that 269 mi Model Y with 4680s has only enough energy for 269 mi? Will it get a bump to 300+ like the others did at first, or is there just not enough batteries? I guess it's possible they added more since the Monroe tear down. Just seems crazy to get an SUV with lower range. Why I think there will be more range unlocked for a few bills. Many of these are showing as "Coming soon to Phoenix" or Tucson like what others are noticing.

Not looking forward to our vehicles dropping in value, again. But if the SP keeps going... it's all relative.