Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

Wow, TSLA up 3.4% 19 minutes after market open. Could investors in Apple and Alphabet be moving money to TSLA as a mega stock safe haven?
TSLA shorties have to be in a foul mood this am.

They are green too. I think as discussed here, the job report is having WS pricing in less of a recession going forward while Powell this Wed said inflation is being controlled.

 

[thx1139]

CNBC Jim Cramer, "We're not going to see a Super Bowl commercial for Tesla". He's got that right.

Every EV commercial is a Tesla commercial.

 

[Mengy]

They are green too. I think as discussed here, the job report is having WS pricing in less of a recession going forward while Powell this Wed said inflation is being controlled.

Yeah, it's beginning to feel like a soft landing is very possible, and Wall Street is liking that possibility very much.

But also, most of FAANG missing earnings while TSLA exceeds certainly isn't hurting us right now!

 

[thx1139]

Where do people check Tesla inventory levels. I have been using Tesla buyers guides, worldwide inventory and support for owners, but seems that no longer pulling data correctly or no current inventory.

 

[Ogre]

This one seems to have older mirror design? And aligment of doors is, ahem, not-so-perfect. I don't think it's a beta version..?

Yeah, this truck was at Giga Texas. Just pointing out that we got a bunch of new shots including some seemingly from employees on company property.

Seems they are loosening the gag order.

What is up with that license plate? The text says TSLA but it is all black. Do black license plates exist in the US? Or is it a place holder?

If a beta prototype with a dummy license I would think Tesla would use TESLA or CYBERTRUCK and not TSLA?

One of us could put TSLA on the license plate if we bought a Cybertruck - but none has been sold yet.

Can some of my American friends add some context here?

Fake plate. Not legal for public roads. They probably have registration in the back window if they go on public streets

I assume you mean mean Twitter has a massive noise to signal ratio, right ?
(High signal to noise means signal is stronger than noise)

Yeah. Derp

I so want to think that this is a cool looking car but I just can't. Looks like a big cardboard box car to me. Luckily, enough buyers feel the opposite.

For me Cybertruck has always been about what it can do not what it looks like. It is a giant box car… It’s designed To move things cheaply. That’s its nature, it’s essence.

As a fundamentally practical person I appreciate that. I don’t worry about what my drill looks like either. People who want a vanity truck can buy the Rivian for $20k more.

 

[wtlloyd]

I love how reality crushes genius ideas that recurrently bubble up from the well of avarice.
Such as my thought on awakening this morning "You know, you really could gain some shares in your ROTH if you sold today and repurchased in the $20-$30 short term correction everybody is talking about right now. I might even be out and back in today! Timing the market isn't always a fail, right?
Hehehehe, holding.

 

[MP3Mike]

Doesn’t that EVSE require the car systems to allow energy to be drawn out of the car? Not many cars allow this.

Yes, it would require a compatible vehicle. You will notice that the solution isn't an EVSE, it is an actual charger, either CHAdeMO, which has V2x as part of the standard, or CCS, where they are working on adding V2x to the standard. (It works by pulling DC out of the vehicle and using an external inverter, or microinverters in the case of Enphase, to supply the AC.) I think the Ford V2H solution is currently using the pre-release implementation from CCS, so they might have to update everything once the standard is finalized. It will be interesting to see if once V2x becomes part of the CCS standard if Tesla will update their vehicles to support it.

In any case Enphase says that this won't be to market until sometime in 2024. So it is a ways off.

I would expect that Tesla might create a Powerwall+ with integrated DC fast charger and V2x capability. (This was sort of hinted at way back when Tesla/Solar City made the Powerwall/Solar Roof announcement.)

 

[2daMoon]

Slightly less than 50M shares traded in the first half hour. What a dud.
Maybe it will pick up later in the day?

 

[JRP3]

Where do people check Tesla inventory levels. I have been using Tesla buyers guides, worldwide inventory and support for owners, but seems that no longer pulling data correctly or no current inventory.

Portfolio - Matt Jung Photography

 

[Cosmacelf]

We must hope Tesla is able to make up for part of the lost revenue with lower costs, better utilisation of GF Berlin and Austin, higher storage sales, IRA credits and a more favorable forex.

Those are all big profit drivers, and real, so I don’t know why you’re skeptical.

 

[AndrewZ]

I am saying the times have changed. The great inflation happened due to a lack of supply domestically due to high unemployment. The scary stagflation. Today production is highly automated and labour comes from all over the world. Inflation this time was caused by a halt of globalization due to covid, which will go away naturally with or without rate increases. It has always been transitory, just took China, the world's greatest producer of goods, 2 freaken years to fully open up.

I would be wary about attributing this inflation to any one thing, it was surely multifactorial and studies have been done looking into the impact from that, from the QE and free money deposited into people’s bank accounts during the pandemic, etc etc.

Some causes will unwind easily and already have, some will not. China reopening will likely be inflationary for commodities, particularly on the industrial side.

 

[larmor]

This shows a total lack of understanding of Tesla's mission, which is to move the world to sustainability. Tesla can't do that on it's own as Elon has often said, so no, their reason for pricing moves is most certainly not to make them the last man standing.

I think the recent price reduction is due to several factors which include:
1. Economies of scale with improved margins as well as use of 4680 cells.
2. Desire to get a larger piece of the auto market-- people are very price sensitive to car purchases.
2b. To get to multimillion volumes and scale, need to expand the buyer pool.
2c. More cars produced helps with economies of scale.
3. To keep in line with the cybertruck specifications. Those are some really high range and load capacities at a $69k price point has to make sense for other cars in the lineup to be at or lower in price per specification. Will they raise prices for a cybertruck, most likely, but this recent price decrease suggests that Tesla will keep to the ballpark figure of 500 mile range and price, maybe $100k.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Yeah, looks like it's going to be another one of those days, huh?

TSLA Afib.

 

[SOULPEDL]

This shows a total lack of understanding of Tesla's mission, which is to move the world to sustainability. Tesla can't do that on it's own as Elon has often said, so no, their reason for pricing moves is most certainly not to make them the last man standing.

Agreed, but I just thought of another scenario. What if by choking off competition (early retirement), you also reduce the number of PHEVs out there, still running in 2040. Especially if you think you can fill demand along with China and the others because batteries really are the growth constraint globally? Ha, maybe that was Elon's message in Washington last week. In some ways, the IRA was a blow to EVs when packaged to encourage Hybrid manufacturing.

I'm not sure I agree necessarily with myself here without modelling it, so more just asking if Plan B makes any sense - to just wipe out some good cells with the bad ones so to speak? (Pls, let's not debate over the value of hybrids).

 

[Prunesquallor]

CNBC Jim Cramer, "We're not going to see a Super Bowl commercial for Tesla". He's got that right.

Well, we WILL. They’ll just be sponsored by OEMs.

 

[Papafox]

They are green too. I think as discussed here, the job report is having WS pricing in less of a recession going forward while Powell this Wed said inflation is being controlled.

Hmm, I'm showing GOOGL down 2.5%, Amazon down 5.7% and Apple up 1.8%. I'll split the difference with you and take Apple off my list. It's a good point about inflation coming under control without losing jobs. Still, the employment picture will likely lead to another 0.25% rate hike next FOMC meeting because Darth Powell can say that employment is still too hot. He said employment needs to come into better balance at Wednesday's meeting.

 

[lukex4]

Seems all Model Y now qualify under the $80000 MSRP for the tax credit. No more 5 or 7 seats difference:

Credits for new clean vehicles purchased in 2023 or after | Internal Revenue Service

You may qualify for a clean vehicle tax credit up to $7,500 if you buy a new, qualified plug-in electric vehicle or fuel cell electric vehicle.

www.irs.gov

Same for other OEM it seems ( I only checked Ford for the Mach-e):

Edited to add the link: Manufacturers and Models for New Qualified Clean Vehicles Purchased in 2023 or After | Internal Revenue Service

 

[TrendTrader007]

Technical analysis is a fancy term for reading charts depicting prices over chosen time frames, usually including volume as well as indicators. All it does is give a pictorial description of what happened to prices historically. I don’t see how that is not useful information for any investor. I love reading charts. Tesla charts look great and I am incredibly bullish for next several years

 

[Papafox]

PS: Market makers were capping TSLA at about 195 yesterday to avoid it getting too close to the sacred 200-strike call wall. Let's see how quickly this 195.65 incursion gets the whack the mole treatment. I hope they fail.

PSS: Holy sugar, the cap is failing!

 

[Prunesquallor]

Interns better wake up their bosses. TSLA getting close to 200. Time to twiddle the knobs.