Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SageBrush]

850 grams Li-carbonate per kWh battery storage
The Model Y LR is ~ 82 kWh

Current spot price for Li-Carbonate is 437 Yuan per Kg,
So Li component in Model Y LR is 437*87 Yuan = $5309 USD

Apologies, everybody. There is an error above.

In 82 kWh pack, 82*0.85 = 69.7 Kg of Li-carbonate is used
437 Yuan is ~ $65
So spot price of Lithium for this size pack today is 65*69.7 = $4,530

 

[StealthP3D]

As for the "snowflake" aspect, I was considering the brushing as being artistically unique from truck to truck. Waves in the flat panels wasn't a part of that consideration. Though, as long as the waves are slight, they are unlikely to bother me any more than the waves on any existing vehicle's painted panels. There will be minor deviations on any piece of metal going through daily temperature cycles, won't there?

Remember, I'm comparing the relative lack of waviness of the initial prototypes to the distinct waviness that started appearing on prototypes about a year ago. I'm not trying to split hairs, I'm saying it indicates a change in production techniques, either how it's welded or, that Tesla is integrating the cold-rolling hardening process into the fabrication of the panels as they are formed.

To me the source of the waviness is far more fascinating than whether one likes it or hates it. Because it's one of the few clues we have as to what kind of production techniques the Cybertruck team is using on this new, highly innovative, way to engineer vehicles. It speaks to how much it will cost in terms of raw materials and production expense, and what kind of volumes, margins and final price points they will be able to obtain and how viable this platform is going forward.

As to the actual appearance itself, that matters little to me. Was the original prototype wavy? Certainly, if you had good enough measuring tools or polished it to a mirror finish, you could see it, but the point is, there has been a major change.

 

[Artful Dodger]

50% annual SP growth until 2030. What do I win?

Bragging rights here at Financial Kindergarten? Seriously, I've been invested in TSLA for 4.8 yrs now, and currently my CAGR is 61.6%.

I actually did the same theoretical calculation after @Sofie asked that question haha.

I did the same, except 4.8 years ago... Then I invested in TSLA..

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[JRP3]

I don't know which rumors you've been listening to but it might be a good idea to ignore those "sources" and base your estimates off what we actually know about how Tesla tends to operate.

How often has Tesla released a new product with the shortest range version?

 

[SOULPEDL]

Thanks, but no. I know what waviness in body panels looks like - firsthand experience.

Exactly. I noticed the waves in the CT panels as well. When I see down the side of one, I look away. Maybe not practical to get flat.

 

[StealthP3D]

How often has Tesla released a new product with the shortest range version?

My disagreement was with the sources who claimed the 500-mile Cybertruck would have a 250 kWh battery. It's either purposeful misinformation or extreme ignorance.

Which version Tesla releases first, 300-350 mile or 500 mile is anyone's guess. That's a business decision Tesla will make. The size of the battery is something that can be calculated rather closely, given the specs.

 

[JRP3]

Which version Tesla releases first, 300-350 mile or 500 mile is anyone's guess.

Going by history I'd say the safe bet is the 500 mile range version unless they are still having production problems with the 4680 cells.

 

[ElectricIAC]

Exactly. I noticed the waves in the CT panels as well. When I see down the side of one, I look away. Maybe not practical to get flat.

Could they incorporate it into the aerodynamics?

Maybe a cheaty trick for airflow.

 

[StealthP3D]

Going by history I'd say the safe bet is the 500 mile range version unless they are still having production problems with the 4680 cells.

The other factor that argues for the 300-350 mile range version being the initial release version, is weight. Tesla has never released a light vehicle with such a large, heavy, battery (around 190 kWh). The release version of the Cybertruck will be extensively tested by automotive journalists, etc, and the off-road capabilities and on-road handling dynamics will get more favorable reviews if not carrying excessive weight.

Even if supply of 4680 cells is not a constraint, Tesla may very well release the 300-350 mile CT first, so it can get more favorable reviews. I have multiple CT orders to cover all my bases, but the first one was the Dual-Motor 300+ mile version because a lighter vehicle has many advantages for my uses. I also want a 500-mile version!

There are also good arguments to release the 500-mile version first, we will just have to wait and see how Tesla handles it. I'm leaning towards guessing a 300-350 mile version.

 

[StealthP3D]

Could they incorporate it into the aerodynamics?

Maybe a cheaty trick for airflow.

Good thought but I know sailboat racers pay huge attention to getting rid of that kind of waviness because it creates serious drag. Does the lower viscosity of air vs. water, combined with the higher speed of a land vehicle negate that? I don't know, perhaps. But it seems more like a by-product of the production processes than a deliberate way to lower drag.

I suppose Tesla should investigate that. But I suspect that if you measured the pronounced visible waviness, of the most wavy panels we have seen so far, it would only amount to two or three thousandth's of an inch out of flat. Maybe that's enough to benefit the boundary airflow?

 

[ElectricIAC]

Good thought but I know sailboat racers pay huge attention to getting rid of that kind of waviness because it creates serious drag. Does the lower viscosity of air vs. water, combined with the higher speed of a land vehicle negate that? I don't know, perhaps. But it seems more like a by-product of the production processes than a deliberate way to lower drag.

I suppose Tesla should investigate that. But I suspect that if you measured the pronounced visible waviness, of the most wavy panels we have seen so far, it would only amount to two or three thousandth's of an inch out of flat. Maybe that's enough to benefit the boundary airflow?

Worth looking into if it creates a notable consumption difference.

 

[lafrisbee]

Apologies, everybody. There is an error above.

In 82 kWh pack, 82*0.85 = 69.7 Kg of Li-carbonate is used
437 Yuan is ~ $65
So spot price of Lithium for this size pack today is 65*69.7 = $4,530

Apologizing for the guess on where Schrodinger's cat is? No need to apologize. At some time the price you quoted will be correct again. And your new Cat price will be wrong tomorrow.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Remember, I'm comparing the relative lack of waviness of the initial prototypes to the distinct waviness that started appearing on prototypes about a year ago. I'm not trying to split hairs, I'm saying it indicates a change in production techniques, either how it's welded or, that Tesla is integrating the cold-rolling hardening process into the fabrication of the panels as they are formed.

To me the source of the waviness is far more fascinating than whether one likes it or hates it. Because it's one of the few clues we have as to what kind of production techniques the Cybertruck team is using on this new, highly innovative, way to engineer vehicles. It speaks to how much it will cost in terms of raw materials and production expense, and what kind of volumes, margins and final price points they will be able to obtain and how viable this platform is going forward.

As to the actual appearance itself, that matters little to me. Was the original prototype wavy? Certainly, if you had good enough measuring tools or polished it to a mirror finish, you could see it, but the point is, there has been a major change.

It will be awesome if the CT has waviness. Waviness will make each Cybertruck completely unique.

 

[mongo]

The other factor that argues for the 300-350 mile range version being the initial release version, is weight. Tesla has never released a light vehicle with such a large, heavy, battery (around 190 kWh). The release version of the Cybertruck will be extensively tested by automotive journalists, etc, and the off-road capabilities and on-road handling dynamics will get more favorable reviews if not carrying excessive weight.

Even if supply of 4680 cells is not a constraint, Tesla may very well release the 300-350 mile CT first, so it can get more favorable reviews. I have multiple CT orders to cover all my bases, but the first one was the Dual-Motor 300+ mile version because a lighter vehicle has many advantages for my uses. I also want a 500-mile version!

There are also good arguments to release the 500-mile version first, we will just have to wait and see how Tesla handles it. I'm leaning towards guessing a 300-350 mile version.

Weight would impact cornering, but smooth out the ride. Pack weight might actually help overall though as it lowers CG, reducing body roll. Especially with a full load of passengers/ cargo with a higher seating position.
Will tires (sidewall height) be a limiting factor to handling regardless?

 

[CitizenKane]

My nephew (who lives in Sweden BTW) has one on order, so hopefully you will get to see one in person one day.

Interesting! They are not available for order in Sweden and I thought they would not be permitted under EU safety rules, due to how dangerous they will be to pedestrians. But maybe I misunderstood.

 

[JRP3]

The release version of the Cybertruck will be extensively tested by automotive journalists, etc, and the off-road capabilities and on-road handling dynamics will get more favorable reviews if not carrying excessive weight.

On the other hand they'll pan it for lack of range and especially when towing. If I were Tesla and had the choice there is no question I'd release the longest range first.

 

[jerry33]

This might come as a shock, but in most large organisations, the CEOs don't tend to be very hands-on, and in many cases might not have much of an idea of their products and services

This has been my experience as well. Even two or three levels down from CEO are pretty clueless. One time where I worked a large server failed and the replacement was dropped off the truck (ouch). The VP in charge asked if he could just go down and pick of a computer from Fry's.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Even more disconnect with this share price forecast.

Only $10T Mkt Cap by 2030? I agree, this is slightly below TSLA historic* performance (but I like to be conservative**).

*TSLA historic performance is 50.1% CAGR since IPO on June 29, 2010.
** Tesla's business lines are increasing in number (not just an automaker in the future)!

Cheers!

P.S. 2030 is NOT the end of Tesla's growth story; that's just when they start to expand 'off-planet' with ROBOTS...

 

[SOULPEDL]

Could they incorporate it into the aerodynamics?

Maybe a cheaty trick for airflow.

Or put tiny bumps on the surface like golf balls.

 

[jerry33]

My disagreement was with the sources who claimed the 500-mile Cybertruck would have a 250 kWh battery. It's either purposeful misinformation or extreme ignorance.

Which version Tesla releases first, 300-350 mile or 500 mile is anyone's guess. That's a business decision Tesla will make. The size of the battery is something that can be calculated rather closely, given the specs.

There are a number of people (no idea how many) like me who have one on order only because of the 500 mile range. I'd really rather have an X with that range.