Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MrMoo]

She sold when Tesla was trading at $700+ per share ($233 split adjusted) and bought when it was $101-120/ share.

I’m more of a HODL sort of guy, but in retrospect she sold when TSLA was overpriced and bought when it was at the bottom.

Hmm.

She has had a lot of losing trades, she has a lot of bad holdings but she's been applying the same rule to her stocks. Trim winners or stocks at break even (or lower losses) to buy stocks that have dropped even more. I wouldn't say what she did with Tesla was some mind blowing feat, she did the same with other holdings but those ones just kept dipping.

However i do find it funny to see that when she was selling people were laughing at her, selling to buy more docusign became a meme or something and she was getting a lot of criticism but when she started buying she became some hero. I'm not sure if it was the same people commenting but it's funny to see the duality of man.

 

[zoomer0056]

This has to be the most active TMC thread. I tried keeping up but my other threads were suffering. I'll poke in here now and then.

 

[AudubonB]

When in the last 5 years has Cathie been right?

Past non-performance is no guarantee of future results.

 

[Captkerosene]

Correct me if I am wrong, (I am not particularly experienced as an investor, having bought and held just one stock ... tesla since 2016), but my understanding is that teslas guidance is for 40-50% growth for the foreseeable future, which suggests S-curve type growth. This doesn't seem unreasonable, particularly if you watch Tony Seba's presentations where he discusses disruptive technologies and how analysts generally miss predictions as they predict linearly (see purple line in above graph as an example) whereas the reality for disruptive technologies tends to be an exponential curve (see red line in above graph).
I know the graph is representing SP which can be divorced from companies fundamentals, but even so, is it not unreasonable to expect the SP to track approximately with the companies growth over the longer term, which would suggest that the red line may not be wildly optimistic but a real possibility?
Below is the series of graphs that Tony references in his talks.

View attachment 903672

Share price may or may not track revenues. It's more closely related to earnings which may or may not track revenues. And even more closely related to investor sentiment which may or may not track revenues. Ultimately, you could grow over 100%/year up until the day you go bankrupt.

Look at the list of industries in the graph. Some have been wildly profitable while others have been veritable wastelands for investors. The losers were commodity products where only the lowest cost producers survived ... and even then with low margins and poor returns. The best industries had good "franchises." You know you have a good franchise if 1) people want and need your product, 2) the Govt doesn't regulate your pricing, 3) there is no ready alternative and 4) you have control over your input costs and the ability to raise prices at will. (See Warren Buffett.)

With the above in mind, I'm less optimistic about the car, solar and energy business than most over the very long term. I'm more optimistic about FSD, Bot, insurance, Supercharger, Megacharger, Semi, CT and RT. The latter group will be harder for our competition to copy. In total, I think we have some wonderful products in production or on the road map that will be great franchises.

 

[MC3OZ]

She has had a lot of losing trades, she has a lot of bad holdings but she's been applying the same rule to her stocks. Trim winners or stocks at break even (or lower losses) to buy stocks that have dropped even more. I wouldn't say what she did with Tesla was some mind blowing feat, she did the same with other holdings but those ones just kept dipping.

However i do find it funny to see that when she was selling people were laughing at her, selling to buy more docusign became a meme or something and she was getting a lot of criticism but when she started buying she became some hero. I'm not sure if it was the same people commenting but it's funny to see the duality of man.

I like the way she trades, because she trends to buy low and sell high.

Her stock picks are intended to be disruptive companies, backed by quality research, and I think they expect some losers.

My question is the quality of the research done by her team, it often seems a little too optimistic.

Still even if they are right for the wrong reasons, 2-3 disruptive companies out of 10 working out may be enough to make her model work.

 

[MrMoo]

I like the way she trades, because she trends to buy low and sell high.

Her stock picks are intended to be disruptive companies, backed by quality research, and I think they expect some losers.

My question is the quality of the research done by her team, it often seems a little too optimistic.

Still even if they are right for the wrong reasons, 2-3 disruptive companies out of 10 working out may be enough to make her model work.

Her trading style really is something. It might of even worked in a normal trading environment but she didn't know those disruptive companies were pumped too hard so they could go down 95+%

Also on the note of her trading style, it also means she will be selling TSLA stock too. I would say around the 230-250's. Just my estimate.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Interesting thread about Tesla warranty reserves. In summary, Tesla is best in class

https://twitter.com/x/status/1622317952358924294

 

[MC3OZ]

How does everyone interpret Jeff's comments on Sodium Batteries?

Is the Dalhousie team doing Sodium Battery research for Tesla?

I am about 60% sure that they are, but I will need to watch the section again.

About 30 mins in cathode, sodium, iron and managese, anode carbon.

Might be a structured graphene anode, that works for sulphur and aluminum, might work for just about anything?

They are doing Sodium Battery research the real question is if it is for Tesla.

Move evidence, still not 100% conclusive;- (But probably > 90% now)

Jeff Dahn: “after 2030, we need more sustainable technologies (than lithium-ion) and that’s why myself, Michael Metzger and Chan Yin Yang are involved in the Tesla project: our goal is make sodium-ion batteries last as long as lithium-ion batteries.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1622334771723370502

 

[JRP3]

Tesla shipped the Model S 60 years before the Model S plaid.

Was there a /s tag missing? Not even close to the same thing. Plaid was just a tweaked version of the existing Model S, not a whole new vehicle. When the 60 came out there was already the 85.

 

[Cosmacelf]

We've torn down over 100 cars (Here are Tesla advantages) | Cory Steuben | Brighter with Herbert (33 min ago)

This is a great video. An hour long, but mostly filled with meat. And yes, Cory does tell us what Tesla's advantages are (there are many that he explains).

One thing I didn't know was the history for how auto OEMs ended up with a fractured design architecture versus Tesla's current extremely integrated design. In the 1990s, managers doing their spreadsheet analysis realized that if they bought, say, wire harnesses from Ukraine, they could get them shipped to the US for a total cost of like $10, whereas if they built them in their factory with union labor, it would cost $30. So they began outsourcing pretty much everything. And that worked as long as you didn't have huge design changes and innovations in your industry.

Along comes Tesla. Their first iteration, the 2012 Model S, was designed pretty much the same way (remember that the original Tesla business plan with the OG Roadster was to outsource basically everything). But for the mass market Model 3, Tesla had a ginourmous challenge ahead of them in that they had to cut costs massively while still producing a great car. That forced them to do extreme design integration. Their superbottle was one example where the thermal system became highly integrated and shed a lot of parts count cost, manufacturing complexity, weight, etc. The high voltage system was another example where they highly integrated all those components resulting in far less orange wiring everywhere, again saving costs and weight (every weight save has knock on cost reduction effects). They also got smarter in that they had time to look at the way legacy auto did things, and improved upon that - legacy auto had to use heavy and expensive hoses to carry very hot engine cooling fluids. For the model 3, they realized their temperature ranges were far smaller so they could use far cheaper and lighter "plastic" hoses (not an ordinary plastic, of course, you know what I mean).

Anyways, watch the video when you have time. Cory is an engaging speaker when he doesn't have Munro slowing things down (and this interview is just Cory).

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I’m thinkin the folks that think Robotaxis are close have never been in a car with FSD beta. I mean, don’t get me wrong. We love ours. It’s freakin amazing. But really? If a cop followed me across the city he would use every blank citation book he had with him and the accumulated fines would be enough to pay for a Cybertruck. I mean, he could just xerox the “incorrect use of a signal light” infraction and save a lot of time. That would be good for half the Cybertruck right there. Using wrong lane, blocking traffic while trying to get into a lane that it was in until 100 metres before it needed to be in that lane etc. It’s alright up here in the great white north as we don’t usually have guns in our cars, but the road rage of people waiting for the car to make a decision at an intersection or traffic circle would probably lead to a serious escalation of traffic shootings in some societies.

We love it. It’s great. But MY GAWD it’s no where even close to any kind of an autonomous driving platform. Geesh.

Just sayin.

 

[ElectricIAC]

I’m thinkin the folks that think Robotaxis are close have never been in a car with FSD beta. I mean, don’t get me wrong. We love ours. It’s freakin amazing. But really? If a cop followed me across the city he would use every blank citation book he had with him and the accumulated fines would be enough to pay for a Cybertruck. I mean, he could just xerox the “incorrect use of a signal light” infraction and save a lot of time. That would be good for half the Cybertruck right there. Using wrong lane, blocking traffic while trying to get into a lane that it was in until 100 metres before it needed to be in that lane etc. It’s alright up here in the great white north as we don’t usually have guns in our cars, but the road rage of people waiting for the car to make a decision at an intersection or traffic circle would probably lead to a serious escalation of traffic shootings in some societies.

We love it. It’s great. But MY GAWD it’s no where even close to any kind of an autonomous driving platform. Geesh.

Just sayin.

FSDb is student driver grade right now.

 

[Singuy]

I’m thinkin the folks that think Robotaxis are close have never been in a car with FSD beta. I mean, don’t get me wrong. We love ours. It’s freakin amazing. But really? If a cop followed me across the city he would use every blank citation book he had with him and the accumulated fines would be enough to pay for a Cybertruck. I mean, he could just xerox the “incorrect use of a signal light” infraction and save a lot of time. That would be good for half the Cybertruck right there. Using wrong lane, blocking traffic while trying to get into a lane that it was in until 100 metres before it needed to be in that lane etc. It’s alright up here in the great white north as we don’t usually have guns in our cars, but the road rage of people waiting for the car to make a decision at an intersection or traffic circle would probably lead to a serious escalation of traffic shootings in some societies.

We love it. It’s great. But MY GAWD it’s no where even close to any kind of an autonomous driving platform. Geesh.

Just sayin.

Not saying that FSD Beta is ready for prime time, but I am pretty sure if a cop follows ANYONE they would use every blank citation book he had. Honestly most traffic laws are merely a suggestion according to every driver.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I’m thinkin the folks that think Robotaxis are close have never been in a car with FSD beta. I mean, don’t get me wrong. We love ours. It’s freakin amazing. But really? If a cop followed me across the city he would use every blank citation book he had with him and the accumulated fines would be enough to pay for a Cybertruck. I mean, he could just xerox the “incorrect use of a signal light” infraction and save a lot of time. That would be good for half the Cybertruck right there. Using wrong lane, blocking traffic while trying to get into a lane that it was in until 100 metres before it needed to be in that lane etc. It’s alright up here in the great white north as we don’t usually have guns in our cars, but the road rage of people waiting for the car to make a decision at an intersection or traffic circle would probably lead to a serious escalation of traffic shootings in some societies.

We love it. It’s great. But MY GAWD it’s no where even close to any kind of an autonomous driving platform. Geesh.

Just sayin.

Absolutely correct. My friends say I should get a bumper sticker saying "student driver" for when I use FSD. Having said that, most of the issues I see (and I've seen all yours plus some!) are very, very fixable (some are outright bugs!). Worse case is a couple of years out and a hardware upgrade. It'll come...

 

[MC3OZ]

Absolutely correct. My friends say I should get a bumper sticker saying "student driver" for when I use FSD. Having said that, most of the issues I see (and I've seen all yours plus some!) are very, very fixable (some are outright bugs!). Worse case is a couple of years out and a hardware upgrade. It'll come...

With Software 2.0 replacing C++ code with NNs, is a kind of 3 steps backwards to go 6 steps forward scenario.

In the long run, there are fewer bugs simply because there is less code and fewer assumptions, but getting the NNs up to the level of the C++ code they are replacing is initially time-consuming.

This isn't the whole story, but things like that are part of the perceived lack of progress.

 

[GhostSkater]

Since there has been some discussion here on Cybertruck battery, I will share this here

Last week I went in a bit of a dive to try to figure it's layout, the initial conclusion I arrived on the link bellow is that I had no idea how they do it, because my initial assumption that the pack would have a single layer of cells, actually, Tesla would loved for that to be true, but it won't happen until they can at least double 4680 energy density, by that time we will have electric long range airplanes

So on my wrong conclusion on the link bellow and by some suggestions, I took one of the exoskeleton pictures and overlaid on CT dimensions

Turns out they can do a double layer pack, will need some clever engineering on how to connect them on the space available and in a way that is good assembly wise, Rivian did in a nice way, but their cooling approach isn't that good, and since Tesla pushes cells way harder, that won't happen

So the TDLR is that there is room for roughly 250 kWh assuming 4680 cells doesn't have higher energy storage capability with the 4680 V2s and DBE solved, which honestly from last comments, it's solved, and with a big maybe we might see over 500 miles, I bet Elon would love to have it over 520 miles just to say they have more range than Lucid, but in a truck lol

If that is wrong and they will only do or only have space for a single layer pack, prepare to be disappointed with Cybertruck range, less than 350 miles, but I doubt that's the case, they knew what pack size they needed on the really early stage of it's design

https://www.reddit.com/r/Tesla_Charts/comments/10ujh5x

 

[CaliBear1]

Projections for TSLA future growth from conventional Wall St. analysts like Gary Blank are useless; they are trying to estimate* Elon based on Wall St. history. Elon does not fit inside their little boxes.

The simplest estimate is to listen to what Elon says: 50% annual growth for the foreseeable future. Now, can Elon forsee Tesla in 2030? Oh yeah, clearly:

• Tesla Megapacks on the Grid,
• Tesla Semis on the Road,
• Tesla Autos in every Segment,
• Tesla Insurance, Autonomy, and Ride Hailing,
• Tesla Robotics in the Factory,
• Tesla Robotics and the Home, and
• Tesla Robotics in Space.

Believe it. Elon will make it happen. That's what he does. The peanut gallery is not a factor.

#Predict 1,970,777 Tesla cars *delivered in 2023.

By 2030 Tesla bots will be traveling in SpaceX starships to mine the asteroid belt. What comes after trillions?

 

[Cosmacelf]

By 2030 Tesla bots will be traveling in SpaceX starships to mine the asteroid belt. What comes after trillions?

The absolutely crazy thing is that this is actually possible!

 

[Artful Dodger]

By 2030 Tesla bots will be traveling in SpaceX starships to mine the asteroid belt. What comes after trillions?

16 Psyche - $10,000 quadrillion in iron, nickel and gold.​

Asteroid Psyche

Asteroid Psyche is a giant metal rich asteroid that will be explored by a spacecraft with the same name - NASA's Psyche mission.

solarsystem.nasa.gov

Eh, Lithium shortage? 6% of matter produced in the Big Band was Lithium6. Enough to choke Carl Sagan.

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[ElectricIAC]

Since there has been some discussion here on Cybertruck battery, I will share this here

Last week I went in a bit of a dive to try to figure it's layout, the initial conclusion I arrived on the link bellow is that I had no idea how they do it, because my initial assumption that the pack would have a single layer of cells, actually, Tesla would loved for that to be true, but it won't happen until they can at least double 4680 energy density, by that time we will have electric long range airplanes

So on my wrong conclusion on the link bellow and by some suggestions, I took one of the exoskeleton pictures and overlaid on CT dimensions

Turns out they can do a double layer pack, will need some clever engineering on how to connect them on the space available and in a way that is good assembly wise, Rivian did in a nice way, but their cooling approach isn't that good, and since Tesla pushes cells way harder, that won't happen

So the TDLR is that there is room for roughly 250 kWh assuming 4680 cells doesn't have higher energy storage capability with the 4680 V2s and DBE solved, which honestly from last comments, it's solved, and with a big maybe we might see over 500 miles, I bet Elon would love to have it over 520 miles just to say they have more range than Lucid, but in a truck lol

If that is wrong and they will only do or only have space for a single layer pack, prepare to be disappointed with Cybertruck range, less than 350 miles, but I doubt that's the case, they knew what pack size they needed on the really early stage of it's design

https://www.reddit.com/r/Tesla_Charts/comments/10ujh5x

Double plaid packs with 900V charging?