Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ogre]

Interesting that the law states:
I would think that a review of all vehicles sold in the US with an augmented cruise control should have "motor vehicle safety standards" prescribed to them. Obvious these vary considerably, from just an adaptive CC to Level 2 systems like offered by Tesla, but if the AP and FSD are subject to a recall, surely some of the others should be as well. Certainly people have had issues with these as well and not just BEV's. Pardon my ignorance, but what are the systems from GM, Toyota, et al, rated at? Level 2? Is there a Level 1?

A lot of this is built around things other automakers just do not do. Even though there is a lot of “Debate” about which system is the best, none of the others have anything equivalent that would need fixed. For example, with regards to ADAS anyhow Tesla is alone in offering speed detection and adjust speed based on detected changes so nobody else would be subject to this. For services like Waymo and Cruise, they map out the area and are limited to 35 MPH so it’s not likely a big issue slowing to 25 MPH.

Other features are similar. Even though the media likes to paint it like there is a close race, other ADAS systems just don’t do the things.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Martin could be the CEO of Rivian and Lucid and be perfectly acceptable. His problem was building a roadster that cost more than what they charged...aka a negative gross margin but just slightly so. Elon saw that as a deal breaker and fired him, and then turned a negative gm roadster to a positive one, mostly by raising the price on pre order holders.

Actually lucid and rivian wish they had a ceo like Martin so their gross margins wouldn't be -250% negative.

In the era of unlimited IPO billion valuations for EV startups. You can have -250% margins for couple years and deliver couple thousands of vehicles before the customers are stucked with a vehicles with no more service, no more updates and no more spare parts

 

[Skryll]

Good time to raise awareness that:

1) NHTSA has jurisdiction only over the USA.

Worst case regulatory scenario is FSD gets level 5 ready in America but then NHTSA prohibits it. However, Canada would get FSD some months later.

Maybe acknowledge the other side of the coin that tesla was able to run both autopilot and fsd beta for years in the US while not being allowed to do the same nearly as unrestricted or at all in Europe and Canada.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla could fight any unreasonable rules in federal appellate court.

Well, that'll delay any approval by seven yahren (which is their handler's goal).

 

[traxila]

Absolutely. Musk's tenacity is underappreciated. As is his fund raising acumen. Automotive and rockets are hugely capital intensive industries. Being able to raise lots of money to keep these companies not only surviving but exponentially growing is massively impressive. People denigrate him as a "snake oil salesman", but you have to be willing to convince people of outlandish things to get the investment money.

And then there's his ability to hire incredible talent. Once again, it is fashionable to ding him for firing people on the spot. Yet somehow really good engineers and managers mange to not get fired and thrive (until they burn out) at his companies.

Number one reason why I am not ‘super’ rich is my inability (sometimes overcome. Especially this one time where she was eating people’s lunches. WTF!) to fire people. Always looking to improve them, make them change, get them better. …. Not happening in the end.

Yet still I persist. Eh, I am rich enough.

With EM it was never about the money anyway. Not that he does not like it……

 

[Cosmacelf]

Number one reason why I am not ‘super’ rich is my inability (sometimes overcome. Especially this one time where she was eating people’s lunches. WTF!) to fire people. Always looking to improve them, make them change, get them better. …. Not happening in the end.

Yet still I persist. Eh, I am rich enough.

With EM it was never about the money anyway. Not that he does not like it……

Yeah, sounds easy to fire deadweight. In actuality it is very, very hard for most people to do. You have to accept that many people you fire will have been mistakes to fire them. The theory being that overall, you’ll get a lot more right than wrong.

I’ve been in both camps, been fired when I shouldn’t have been (in my opinion of course ), and fired people who in hindsight I probably shouldn’t have. Frankly, being fired was one the best things that happened to me, although it sucked at the time. It gave me a huge motivation to persevere and show those idiots how wrong they were as I was doing my own ”staring into the dark void of nothingness while eating glass” phase of my company.

 

[wipster]

A lot of this is built around things other automakers just do not do. Even though there is a lot of “Debate” about which system is the best, none of the others have anything equivalent that would need fixed. For example, with regards to ADAS anyhow Tesla is alone in offering speed detection and adjust speed based on detected changes so nobody else would be subject to this. For services like Waymo and Cruise, they map out the area and are limited to 35 MPH so it’s not likely a big issue slowing to 25 MPH.

Other features are similar. Even though the media likes to paint it like there is a close race, other ADAS systems just don’t do the things.

Agreed. Good concise description from Wikipedia on the various levels of ADAS:
The levels can be roughly understood as Level 0 - no automation; Level 1 - hands on/shared control; Level 2 - hands off; Level 3 - eyes off; Level 4 - mind off, and Level 5 - steering wheel optional.

Advanced driver-assistance system - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[mongo]

Agreed. Good concise description from Wikipedia on the various levels of ADAS:
The levels can be roughly understood as Level 0 - no automation; Level 1 - hands on/shared control; Level 2 - hands off; Level 3 - eyes off; Level 4 - mind off, and Level 5 - steering wheel optional.

Advanced driver-assistance system - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

That's not the SAE standard
0 - warnings and such
1 - lane or speed assistance
2 - lane and speed assistance
3 - lane and speed control (hands free)
4 - FSD in limited situations(driver free)
5 - FSD everywhere

 

[wipster]

That's not the SAE standard
0 - warnings and such
1 - lane or speed assistance
2 - lane and speed assistance
3 - lane and speed control (hands free)
4 - FSD in limited situations(driver free)
5 - FSD everywhere

View attachment 908805

Thanks for that. So in order to go to level 3, it's basically taking the "nag" out (no longer necessary to touch the wheel)? Plus of course the biggie, Tesla assumes liability?

 

[Curt Renz]

Used to listen to them. Ironically they were the ones who introduced me to Musk back in the days by praising him for have succeeded in creating so many companies like Paypal, Tesla, and SpaceX. Very pro Elon, until now. I am not even sure what happened but Futurism on FB pushes anti-Musk crap all day. Same with the Verge, Gizmodo, and even popular mechanics. Lots of tech sites online became trashy tabloids by crapping on Elon's every tweet of no important relevance.

The more politically extreme media outlets on both sides bow to the words of Julius Caesar over 2000 years ago, “Most people believe only what they want to believe.” So, these outlets selectively spin stories in ways most likely to excite their base audiences, knowing that they will be unquestioningly believed. Sadly, they are not nearly as diligent at presenting full stories as we were back in the day when I worked in TV news.

 

[kbM3]

Is there any downside to holding TSLL instead of TSLA, assuming that we are 100% confident that TSLA will be going up in some indefinite future?

Wouldn’t you lose everything if a 1.5X leveraged ETF‘s underlying stock were to drop 67%?

 

[scaesare]

Elon says many things, you know the phrase about history being written by the victors? I remember Elon insisting on lowering the door sill of the Roadster, a costly redesign which delayed the vehicle. Who knows how many other such events took place?

Hence my use of the term "alleges". The discussion was surrounding Eberhard's own allegations in that article, and there's 2 sides to every story. So, pointing out Eberhard may not be giving the big picture either.

I remember the door sill thing too. Hard to tell if that would have been a real impediment to sales unless addressed, or it was more Faberge Egg making... like the door handles on the S.

 

[scaesare]

Yeah, sounds easy to fire deadweight. In actuality it is very, very hard for most people to do. You have to accept that many people you fire will have been mistakes to fire them. The theory being that overall, you’ll get a lot more right than wrong.

I’ve been in both camps, been fired when I shouldn’t have been (in my opinion of course ), and fired people who in hindsight I probably shouldn’t have. Frankly, being fired was one the best things that happened to me, although it sucked at the time. It gave me a huge motivation to persevere and show those idiots how wrong they were as I was doing my own ”staring into the dark void of nothingness while eating glass” phase of my company.

“The longer you wait to fire someone the longer it has been since you should have fired them”​

-Elon Musk (as quoted by Ashlee Vance)

 

[Curt Renz]

My new town gets its electricity from a huge array of solar panels built on what had been ranchland. Elsewhere, an activist group is creating problems.

NPR - 8:41 pm EST:
An activist group is spreading misinformation to stop solar projects in rural America

 

[Sofie]

What are everyone’s thoughts about a recession?
I keep hearing about the onset of a market “crash” starting in March.

 

[Bobfitz1]

Hence my use of the term "alleges". The discussion was surrounding Eberhard's own allegations in that article, and there's 2 sides to every story. So, pointing out Eberhard may not be giving the big picture either.

I remember the door sill thing too. Hard to tell if that would have been a real impediment to sales unless addressed, or it was more Faberge Egg making... like the door handles on the S.

I once went for a ride in a friend's Lotus Elise. Lowering the door sills was not a mistake! Getting in and out of a Roadster is twice as easy as an Elise.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Wouldn’t you lose everything if a 1.5X leveraged ETF‘s underlying stock were to drop 67%?

It would have to drop that much in a single day. Tesla dropped that much over an entire year last year. That was pretty awful and unexpected. Even if Elon were to be assassinated or institutionalized, I can't envision that much of a drop in one day.

 

[wipster]

What are everyone’s thoughts about a recession?
I keep hearing about the onset of a market “crash” starting in March.

Never fails... prolly on March 2nd...

 

[Surfer of Life]

What are everyone’s thoughts about a recession?
I keep hearing about the onset of a market “crash” starting in March.

We’re all very, very against it. Not in favor at all.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Never fails... prolly on March 2nd...

Or March 15th. Lend me your fears.