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Looking over the animations for the next-gen platform and assembly, and this struck me.

I'm calling it now - eBrakes. I don't see how you can have a traditional master cylinder hydraulic brakes with brake lines running around to the 4 corners of the car with that kind of assembly process.

Bosch showed off a system they said they were working with "a major EV maker" (i.e. Tesla) where it was all Brake by wire (on autoline after hours, if I remember correctly). I fully expected this on the Cybertruck, but it makes sense why you'd need it for the next gen platform! It's all coming together!!!
 
Not true. At current designs (12V and very long harnesses) the resistance is so high there are substantial losses. Tesla had a slide in the deck showing current cars use ~250W for LV, and they expect this to drop by 75%.
No, Tesla's slide said 250A, not W. (250Ax12V = 3000W) Changing voltage does not directly change Wattage, it does change current (Amperes). The bus voltage change from 12 to 48V reduces the current by 3/4 to 63A for the same power (and consequently thinner( lighter, cheaper) wires for the same resistive power loss).
 
No Tesla motor so far (that we know) is Hallbach, they just used segmented magnets to reduce Eddy current losses

In a IPM (internal permanent magnet), Hallbach doesn't make sense, actually Hallbach in a IPM works against you since you cut the magnetic flux to where it should go

Hallback can work in a SPM (surface permanent magnet) allowing the rotor to have less iron and be smaller/lighter, at expense of more complex assembly and sometimes less power, since some of the magnet mass is used just to redirect the flux intead of adding to it
Munro makes the claim and holds up 4 magnets glued together in this video.

 
Bosch showed off a system they said they were working with "a major EV maker" (i.e. Tesla) where it was all Brake by wire (on autoline after hours, if I remember correctly). I fully expected this on the Cybertruck, but it makes sense why you'd need it for the next gen platform! It's all coming together!!!
The Cybertruck low voltage slide doesn't indicate e-brakes.

How do you cut power (wattage, not current) by 75% when stepping voltage up by a factor of four? You aren't consuming 75% of your power (V*I) in resistance in your wires. Well, unless you seriously undersized your wiring and like making resistance heaters. For the same power, you do cut the current by 75%. I also highly question if your total LV load is only 250W, just based on fuse sizing and quantity in an auto fuse box, but haven't found anything specific. 250 total AMPS (not watts) I can buy.
I was talking current reduction. Power loss in wiring can be the same or less depending on new wire gauge.

But Tesla, 250 Amps? ain't nobody got an alternator for that! Guessing it's the sum of all loads/ circuits which is the mass and cost the car hauls around.

SmartSelect_20230303_155406_Acrobat for Samsung.jpg
 
Anybody from Nuevo Leon or has frends there?

How is the construction business there? I am very curuious to see how they will address, support and peform this immense construction project in such a short time.

It'd be a great comparison to what we've seen in Shanghai and Berlin.
Yes :)

Moneterrey is a major manufacturing city of 5m people. It existed as a place well before the USA existed. It can absorb Tesla and build a site and all that stuff.

Seriously folks, just because places are not in the USA doesn't mean folk run around with bows and arrows.

Workers even have houses to live in.

 
Yes :)

Moneterrey is a major manufacturing city of 5m people. It existed as a place well before the USA existed. It can absorb Tesla and build a site and all that stuff.

Seriously folks, just because places are not in the USA doesn't mean folk run around with bows and arrows.

Workers even have houses to live in.

Bows and arrows perhaps not, but it will be much easier to find a workforce happy to work for $10/hr than it would be north of the border.
 
Count me as a fan of near-shoring.
I'm also a fan of near-shoring, particularly since Elon began extoling the virtues of it years ago. "It is less wasteful, and ultimately cheaper+better to avoid transporting atoms all over the globe, if you can manage it."

However, this is not near-shoring as far as the USA is concerned. Giga Mexico is being built to serve the Mexican and South American markets - cars won't come up across the border (as the Mustang Mach E does)
 
My thoughts on the investor day presentation. I thought the team gave a good summary of what's needed before Tesla can produce the $25K vehicle. Expenses are headed in the right direction. Also the factory has to be built new in order to take advantage of what they've learned. I was especially glad that we heard from the management team, who are all quite articulate and interesting. I think one of Elon's accomplishments was to assemble such an impressive team. As a retired software developer, I had to chuckle every time they said "we used to buy software for that, but we built our own because it was better." Yep. That's one heck of a software team.

I didn't care about new product announcements. I wouldn't believe them, frankly, and it's puzzling that so many people are upset about the lack of announcements. I guess they were they denied the chance to criticize Tesla for months and months because, come on, they said....

Sigh. I mentioned to some people at the card table later that I found the presentation interesting. Many of us have electric cars. Then someone at the table turned out to be a right wing zealot who had to go on a rant about how toxic battery technology is, and how awful it all is, more polluting than nuclear energy, blah blah, on and on. And this is what he lead with, with a straight face: "there's a good thirty years worth of oil left, so no worry." ???!!! We all stayed silent waiting for him to stop. What a buzzkill.
 
I think land size would cease being a limiting factor at a certain point in lieu of things like the logistics of bringing in materials, labour availability, moving 5million+ vehicles annually out of a single factory, and then you need to consider which markets you'd be shipping 5million+ vehicles to and the costs of doing that from one spot.
The plan for 20 million involves a next gen platform that would do at least half of that.

From Mexico you easily hit the North American and South American markets. Overflow can be exported to Europe. Five million for these markets sounds about right.

Obviously this is a staged expansion to five million that includes a massive infrastructure buildout and supply chain logistics. Four to five years before full output achieved.

Willing to go down to four million.
 
So instead of a powerpoint slide of an intended $25k car, Tesla told us how they were going to make it. And that the production choices, manufacturing resources, and speed and ease of assembly as well as safety factors will make the design, not the powerpoint slide then the manufacturing.

Some things are known, including it won't have 1000 mile range, it won't go 0-60 in 1.35 seconds. But unlike other $25k cars, it will be safe, and will be easy to put together in a factory.
 
The new info from Tom Zhu IMHO is a huge boost -NO PAINT for example omits a huge cost and production hold-up as well as future quality control, damage and repair headaches and expenses.

To be clear, he didn't provide any hard information on paint other than what we already know: that it is expensive.

I wonder whether wraps can be made less expensively, but with equal durability and desirability.
 
For Investor day what I feel was missing wasnt stuff hidden in the details. For analysts having more plain metrics would have been helpful for summary purposes.

What is current production volume out of Giga Texas for Model Y? What is expectation by Q3, Q4, 2024.
Same for 4680 production.
Same for Giga Berlin production.
What is planned launch Quarter for CyberTruck? Production expectation for Q3, Q4, 2024.
What is Semi production volume? How many you expect to produce in 2023, 2024.
What is Megapack production out of Lathrop? Again quarter by quarter expectations.
What is Powerwall production? Again quarter by quarter expectations.
What is Solar installation volume? Again quarter by quarter expectations.
What is Solar roof production volume?

Etc. etc.

As for the $25K car. It is not a good idea to announce until right before production starts. Do all you can do to keep the car underwraps. Hide everything you can because the car lingering coming soon will introduce competition for the Model 3 and Model Y. Dont know if you can say that, but it is the smart thing to do. As for a Van I think they could have announced that sometime after CyberTruck launches we will make a CyberVan.
these details were not provided because each of those 9 forecasts you listed will create and endless FUD cycle for MSM... when they miss a given quarter for any of the 9 items ... continuous FUD stream
 
That does raise one issue.

There is no rail line coming pas this site. There is a rail line from Monterrey/Saltillo down to the main port at Altamira (which is what I/we generally sent our containers via) but that line goes Saltillo - Garcia - Monterrey using the valley to the north of the large hill behind the site.

I'm afaid Google maps doesn't really like displaying rail lines very effectively so it is hard to pick them out. The nearest place to connect on to the rail line is at El Durazno. I've circled El Durazno in the picture below and put a oblong box where the site is by Rancho Carvajal. I think they will need to ultimately bring in a rail spur and a rail loading/logistics area as part of a full-sized plant. I've sketched where the turn outs might go.

It is quite possible that a lot of the land grab is to secure the necessary rail and logistics yard areas.

The volume gosspi re Moneterrey also tends towards the internal decision making inside Tesla settling more on the fewer/larger sites (4m/tr each, perhaps) rather than the many/smaller sites (1-2m/yr each) for auto manufacturing. That in turn would suggest one more in Asia/Pacific, one more in India (if India ever gets the message re 100% Tesla control), and one more in Europe. Does that mean in turn that Canada or north-east USA are now out of the running for a Tesla auto plant ? It also means we should probably expect auto site decisions at about one yearly intervals for the next few years. Plus more storage assembly site decisions.


Next time try openrailwaymap.org:
gigamexrr.jpg