Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SageBrush]

We have discussed before whether Tesla has a 'moat.'
The ability to capitalize and build factories with the planned CAPEX efficiency Tesla is talking about sure reads like one, at least so far as the legacies are concerned.

So who is left to build all the EVs that the world wants that Tesla is not able to supply ?

 

[TN Mtn Man]

“Scout” Is VW.

IMO it’s good timing to reinvent that brand. The classic scout has good lines… not sure about it’s reputation, but it was a decent looking truck.

For VW, a good way to get into both pickups and improve their EV presence in the US. They just have to figure out those pesky profitability issues and compete with Cybertruck.

Maybe not good timing after all.


EDIT: Ugh. I forgot what this looked like. And people whine about the Cybertruck’s looks?

View attachment 913628

I've seen a few slightly different renderings. Certainly captures the spirit of the original Scout family and looks good for that market type. I just wonder how badly the aerodynamic drag of the boxy design will impact range when you have such limited capacity compared to a gasser. Teslas do so well because of a fanatical focus on efficiency, including drag. Having said that, the EV9 looks similarly boxy, so perhaps it's acceptable. And frankly no worse than the Rivian.

I'm thinking Hyundai/Kia and VW group are the two legacy manufacturers that just might survive the shift to BEV. Some need to make it just to show how superior Tesla actually is.

 

[GhostSkater]

I know that some of you like stuff Troy posts, but how can you guys give credit to someone that is this dumb?

“Tesla won’t have sales in South America because it current has no sales there”

Holy hell, I can’t believe I read that, not even Gordon would say something this stupid, I’m happy to have muted this clown long ago

And besides, when Tesla has its oficial footprint here in Brazil, it can import vehicles tax free until 2025, which will almost cut the price in half and be cheaper that the cheapest BYD current available if that legislation passes, Tesla would certainly push for it if it intends to come here

And I’m talking about Model 3, with next gen it will arrive at a quarter of the price of a grey import Model 3 and gets closer to Corolla price

https://twitter.com/x/status/1631924467000565762

 

[electracity]

I've seen a few slightly different renderings. Certainly captures the spirit of the original Scout family and looks good for that market type. I just wonder how badly the aerodynamic drag of the boxy design will impact range when you have such limited capacity compared to a gasser. Teslas do so well because of a fanatical focus on efficiency, including drag. Having said that, the EV9 looks similarly boxy, so perhaps it's acceptable. And frankly no worse than the Rivian.

I'm thinking Hyundai/Kia and VW group are the two legacy manufacturers that just might survive the shift to BEV. Some need to make it just to show how superior Tesla actually is.

I pay about 2 cents a mile for a Model Y. 3 cents for an R1T. I don't care about the difference. Even inefficient EVs are very efficient at reasonable electricity cost.

Tesla advantage in this area is using fewer cells so better margins.

 

[SageBrush]

Even inefficient EVs are very efficient at reasonable electricity cost.

Slight problem there -- the main markets do not pay your electricity tariff

 

[2daMoon]

Yeah, based on the casting machines in that it would have large assemblies sliding on those linear motion rails, but instead of casting, you use it to hold things together in a precise manner to do the welding (the welding bots would come in from the sides or top or bottom or whatever, no depicted). My previous post has a more in depth description of the idea.

Will they then be welding the cast aluminum to the stamped steel?

 

[electracity]

Slight problem there -- the main markets do not pay your electricity tariff

Well, NE Illinois and Texas does. Any place with high renewables will have times of low prices. Plus many people with home solar have low costs.

California, after enough solar is installed, will have low prices when it is sunny and not too hot.

 

[electracity]

I have a smart engineering acquaintance who says Cybertruck is not going to be exoskeleton.

What are the implications if true ? I say little because no one seems to care at the apparent failure of the structural pack in the Austin Y.

 

[KBF]

Yah I’m saying at this rate when combined with an upcoming recession the prices will keep lowering throughout the year. Do I really have to spell that out?

Recession = lower COGS as well. Elon has mentioned this before. Inflation/deflation affects the entire supply chain, and Tesla has the ability to adjust quickly to whatever balance they want between sales & margins.

Currency exchange rates may also be at play, though I don't track UK prices.

Increased production also naturally lowers cost over time; though that curve for existing GF's will be near the top of the S.

There are always multiple factors at play. In the end, I'm not worried about the precise margin - there could very much be temporary blips, and the idea is to get past the noise. If Tesla is forced to lower margins, think about the 'competition', who have razer thin (or negative) margins already. When they start going bankrupt, it reduces overall auto supply, easing some pressure. I recall many have gone out of business in China, and Ford is abandoning Europe, too. This will create some ripple effects.

 

[electracity]

plus Tesla has the cash to keep building out capacity during a recession. Any company that can keep building will increase relative advantage against to those that must cut back.

 

[KBF]

I know that some of you like stuff Troy posts, but how can you guys give credit to someone that is this dumb?

“Tesla won’t have sales in South America because it current has no sales there”

Holy hell, I can’t believe I read that, not even Gordon would say something this stupid, I’m happy to have muted this clown long ago

And besides, when Tesla has its oficial footprint here in Brazil, it can import vehicles tax free until 2025, which will almost cut the price in half and be cheaper that the cheapest BYD current available if that legislation passes, Tesla would certainly push for it if it intends to come here

And I’m talking about Model 3, with next gen it will arrive at a quarter of the price of a grey import Model 3 and gets closer to Corolla price

https://twitter.com/x/status/1631924467000565762

In his defense, his strength is collecting current data and adjusting his projections it as it comes in. Once Mexico is built and they're delivering to S America, he'll change his tune. His VERY short term (pure number crunching for the current quarter) analysis seems to be pretty good, but his extrapolative powers seem to be more limited (anything touching underlying factors/'reasons' for data, or interpretation beyond short term financial/numerical projections are based on incredibly shaky logic).

Not everyone can be awesome at everything, and that's cool. We're human. It's just helpful to be able to evaluate what people are good at and don't believe everything from anyone just because they're right at some things. Everyone has blind spots (some bigger than others...) - I wouldn't take relationship advice from Elon, for example, or emulate his parenting style. But I sure value his big picture thinking, vision and staggering breadth of engineering knowledge.

Edit: and just to be clear, Troy is totally wrong about S America - it's an example of a complete failure of analysis.

 

[GOVA]

The overwhelmingly US centric nature of this forum is a hindrance when dealing with things that heppen elsewhere. This especially shows now when we are dealing with US southern neighbour. We've had some inputs from members from arund the world so far, but now, there are a lot of guesses and misinformation.

Salary quotes without any reference points and other sugar that is just vague.

 

[Speedr117]

The car in the clip is a Model 3.

Thanks for finding this. Yes, this was the one! I misremembered my brake vendors. But you can see how this will help enable the "unboxing" new way of assembly they showed during Investor Day.

There are 3 new technology breakthroughs/utilizations that make it all possible:

1. Front and Rear Gigacastings
2. 48v wiring harness
3. Brake by wire (Brembo Sensify or similar)

So I doubt any legacy is going to be following them too quickly with this approach (even further ahead)!

 

[TN Mtn Man]

Will they then be welding the cast aluminum to the stamped steel?

Let alone welding parts that are already painted! I'm assuming they'll use a mix of mechanical fasteners and structural adhesives to join the major sub-assemblies. Given that the plan (from what we've seen in the presentation) is to have most of the interior components already installed, access to welding robots would be seriously limited anyway.

 

[Speedr117]

I had a Z1, that same orange that most of them seemed to be, at least in the Southern France area where I had mine. I doubt that material would be used for any Tesla. It worked when fastened to a BMW 325 skateboard but eBen BMW never used it that way in a normal production vehicle.

@unk45, how did the panels/color hold up?

 

[JRP3]

Not really, if the lines are routed on the sub-assemblies. Just tighten an AN or flare fitting. Biggest issue with hydraulic lines is bleeding them, but not exactly rocket science, it's done on every one they make now.

The comparison was between pushing a plug in and connecting a brake line, which requires aligning the fittings, pushing them together, ideally some counterclockwise rotation of the fitting to align the threads and avoid cross threading, then tightening clockwise to the proper torque. Not rocket science but certainly more complicated than pushing in a connector.

 

[unk45]

I know that some of you like stuff Troy posts, but how can you guys give credit to someone that is this dumb?

“Tesla won’t have sales in South America because it current has no sales there”

Holy hell, I can’t believe I read that, not even Gordon would say something this stupid, I’m happy to have muted this clown long ago

And besides, when Tesla has its oficial footprint here in Brazil, it can import vehicles tax free until 2025, which will almost cut the price in half and be cheaper that the cheapest BYD current available if that legislation passes, Tesla would certainly push for it if it intends to come here

And I’m talking about Model 3, with next gen it will arrive at a quarter of the price of a grey import Model 3 and gets closer to Corolla price

https://twitter.com/x/status/1631924467000565762

Absolutely, not to mention there are now Tesla sales in Brazil, gray market ones, but at least a few have made it. There are a number around Florianopolis and several in Rio de Janeiro (two model Y in my immediate area) plus Tampa. With Mexico up we'll see our orders finally fulfilled. Mine from 2016 still waits for Model 3 but smaller is better.
Perhaps more important from the mission perspective is the Tesla charging buildout that will happen at least in Brazil, Argentina and Chile.
This time Paraguay really won't be able to steal to order any more!

With luck the stationary storage market might benefit, especially when Tesla negotiates grid-tied storage. Of course that is wishful thinking.

 

[JRP3]

Let alone welding parts that are already painted!

I suppose they could grind off the paint where spot welds would go though it would add an extra operation. Or mask those spots before painting.

 

[unk45]

@unk45, how did the panels/color hold up?

The panels and color were perfect. Several I recall had damage since the panels, especially the doors (which descended and raised) were subject to scrapes. Mine never were a problem.
However, my car was always garaged and used only with fine weather. Near Nice, it was always in a low humidity area also. Between Bricklin and Z1 neither had much actual use, since both were not really practical cars.

Still, I cannot imagine Tesla using that material since it's only purpose was as a minimal skin.
It would never survive normal daily use. Tesla has better sense than that.

 

[oldTAVguy]

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