Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

I can't remember if the construction at the South end of the main building, where the parking lot was pulled up, has been designated for a particular purpose. Gen 3?

Its gonna be office space for Tesla HQ.

 

[Ogre]

This reply to Gary Black regarding how tesla “failed” to spoon feed analysts the demand story on investor day.

Tesla just showed new manufacturing system to HALVE vehicle costs & massively increase factory build speed & output.

Did Tesla need to add a slide that says:

"If our EVs are 50% cheaper, 10s of millions of people can afford them, and will buy them".

Is that what you needed?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1631183701014085634

 

[Ocelot]

Tmc Survey:

I have to replace a 2020 Ice Minivan for wife. (Everything is good between us and she likes Ohm My, a.k.a my Tesla now and has driven it and *sugar* her pants after hitting the go pedal)

Option A Model Y 7 seater
Option B Model X 5, 6, or 7 seater
Option C another Ice pos but has the seating and storage for long trips.

The biggest factor is luggage and seating for 5.. I have 2 weeks to decide. Is there roof storage on any Tesla?
All input is welcome.

Edit: I think Tesla will offer a minivan in the next 3 years. So if I have the misfortune of doing a 3 year Ice lease, I believe I could be a Tesla only household.

Thanks Tmc and HODL!

Model x 6 seater. We fit 2 adults..2 kids…2 suitcases…2 huge duffles , 4 backpacks…2 kids golf club sets and and adult goldfish club set , and random stuff…WITHOUT using the trunk space…where our 110 pound dog was.

 

[FSDtester#1]

Model x 6 seater. We fit 2 adults..2 kids…2 suitcases…2 huge duffles , 4 backpacks…2 kids golf club sets and and adult goldfish club set , and random stuff…WITHOUT using the trunk space…where our 110 pound dog was.

Thank you... I had no idea the X had that much space.... and someone mentioned a hitch, which I think we could use to add luggage on if needed.
Sounds like X 6 seater with hitch as needed will work. Thank you Tmc... going to my local service center in the next few days to check them out. Hopefully they have 1 in stock. Or hopefully they don't because they are sold out!!!!

 

[Ocelot]

The frunk is large…as is the area below the floor in the back. Having seats on posts also helps with below the seat storage.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Agreed. This is similar to the average age in the Middle Ages. It’s low because of the high infant morality rate.

Nothing worse than a preachy Middle Age infant.

 

[Dikkie Dik]

AEB crash test compilation

https://twitter.com/x/status/1575873017808551937

The competition is not only coming, they’re not even stopping

/s

 

[MC3OZ]

Consider General Motors, who regularly describes their upcoming Chevrolet Equinox SUV BEV as having a "$30,000" price tag. Does anyone really believe that price is before IRA tax credit? It would be $22,500 after the credit!

Much more likely a car with a $37,500 sticker price. That, if I know GM, may not have too many manufactured in that base configuration. (Ford didn't sell many $39,900 Lightnings either)

The current Model 3 is on sale for ~$42K which gets you down to ~$35K.

The new car out of Giga Mexico won't get this IRA discount. The sales price will be the real price. I can believe that since it's a dimensionally-smaller car, with a lower caliber of luxury appointments, Tesla could offer the base trim for well under $30K. Despite economies of scale afforded by offering a small number of configurations, there will definitely be at least one more trim w/ longer range. Priced in low $30K's?

Personally I don't believe the "no paint" story at present. Will it be stainless steel like the Cybertruck? (What else could it be made from and expected to last)

Many boats are unpainted Aluminium, many roofs are zinc or zinc alloys.

When a vechicle is not being wrapped or painted stainless steel looks nicer, but there is perhaps a way of making goodish looking aluminium or zinc.

Price and weight are additional considerations, as far as I can tell aluminum is cheaper, lighter than stainless steel with both having a low tendency to rust.

IMO paint would work better with aluminium, wraps work well with any non-rust metsl.

The big question is how well wraps age, I think some R&D could improve the longevity of wraps and perhaps open up some new and interesting asthetics.

Perphaps a 2-3 layer wrap with some layers being transparent or semi-transparent would be cheaper than multilayered paint and reasonably long lasting.

It is worth thinking about this issue for high volume mass market vechicles.

 

[MC3OZ]

A lot of people assume Mexico production will go to the US. Troy Teslike is spewing this as well.

But here’s a weird thought.

Is Giga Texas going to have room for an Gen 3 line after the Cybertruck production starts? Model Y production is less than half of the factory. Cybertruck production is likely smaller than the Model Y production (no paint plus that 33% space efficiency thing they talked about). Is there enough room in GigaTexas for a Gen 3 line?

I think there is.

Plenty of land at Giga Texas.

If offices are built on the south end of the build that might free up some space in the main building, but probably no enough.

North of the cathode plant is one good location, the grade in that area is slowly bring levelled. If required they could step that up.

Shanghai is the other likely location, also suitable land there.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Many boats are unpainted Aluminium, many roofs are zinc or zinc alloys.

When a vechicle is not being wrapped or painted stainless steel looks nicer, but there is perhaps a way of making goodish looking aluminium or zinc.

Price and weight are additional considerations, as far as I can tell aluminum is cheaper, lighter than stainless steel with both having a low tendency to rust.

IMO paint would work better with aluminium, wraps work well with any non-rust metsl.

The big question is how well wraps age, I think some R&D could improve the longevity of wraps and perhaps open up some new and interesting asthetics.

Perphaps a 2-3 layer wrap with some layers being transparent or semi-transparent would be cheaper than multilayered paint and reasonably long lasting.

It is worth thinking about this issue for high volume mass market vechicles.

Anodized aluminum would be pretty cool, and could be most any color. I'm not sure that would be any cheaper than painting though, and aluminum isn't particularly cheap itself.

 

[MC3OZ]

Anodized aluminum would be pretty cool, and could be most any color. I'm not sure that would be any cheaper than painting though, and aluminum isn't particularly cheap itself.

If the metal isn't rust proof it probably needs to be painted? I am not sure how well a wrap would work on unpainted metal that is prone to rust.

Ladders are another object that is unpainted aluminum, a fair amount of metal in a ladder which typically costs a few hundred dollars.

 

[traxila]

AEB crash test compilation

https://twitter.com/x/status/1575873017808551937

The competition is not only coming, they’re not even stopping

/s

https://twitter.com/fahrIehrer/status/1614679115226927104/analytics
Let’s see Tesla results:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1614679115226927104

 

[SmokyPeat]

If the metal isn't rust proof it probably needs to be painted? I am not sure how well a wrap would work on unpainted metal that is prone to rust.

Ladders are another object that is unpainted aluminum, a fair amount of metal in a ladder which typically costs a few hundred dollars.

Well, regular steel would probably need painting, yes. A wrap as a factory option might make sense for something made from aluminum or stainless steel- though I think wraps might be too labor intensive. Maybe that could be automated. I guess I missed the part in the presentation suggesting no paint? I've only watched the first hour (half alert) and when Elon came back out for the Optimus demo so far.

 

[FireMedic]

We have both (see my sig). Both A and B are great options - rather than taking advice from the web, simply have her go sit in / test drive each of them and the choice that is right for her will be pretty obvious. And, yes, Tesla offers a roof rack for the Y and a hitch mount for both the X and Y. <No roof rack for the X, obviously >

We loved the falcon wing doors when the kids were little. We needed 7 seats but our neighbors have the 6 seater and I prefer it.

We have 4 racks for the X. A 4 e-bike (oneup) rack, this luggage rack, a ski rack, a small trailer, and a dual moto rack.

Can’t wait until my cybertruck removes the need for all these racks!

 

[Dikkie Dik]

Let’s see Tesla results:

Highest Euro NCAP EAB safety score ever, for the MY with Vision Only.

 

[nativewolf]

This reply to Gary Black regarding how tesla “failed” to spoon feed analysts the demand story on investor day.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1631183701014085634

There is so much more than cheap cars to getting things ready to sell 10 or 20 million a year. side of Australia/NewZealand, N Asia, Europe, USA and Canada there are not many places where you can just call up an electrician and have an EV charging at your house.

I think what Tesla showed is how it plans to be profitable, kudus. That's great. How to address demand is often under appreciated in a network environment. For example, in 1990 the demand for telephones was huge in Bangkok Thailand. Huge. Sales were miniscule. The waiting list for the state monopoly to provide a landline to your home could be 2-3 years. When they got cell phones licensed they took off to such a degree that in a couple of years every house had a cell phone where as in 50 years only a couple of hundred thousand people had one before. Gary is asking a fair question. From charging, to support, a cheap ev vehicle by itself is not going to get you to 20 million.

 

[electracity]

I think it's funny how much the Gen 3 vehicle is being referred to as "the $25K Tesla". We don't know the pricing of the Gen 3 vehicles yet! It will certainly be more affordable than the M3/MY, but the price is unannounced. It will likely be much higher than $25K for years, during the initial ramp with sky high demand and higher options/trims and margins. Seems like using the $25K phrase sets everyone up for disappointment....as investors, why would we want to encourage that? Any chance we can move away from referring to it by its unannounced price?

The gen 3 has to be separated in price from the model 3. The Y and 3 are currently in supply/demand balance in the U.S. The only way the next gen can sell more cars is to be significantly under $35K.

Tesla is selling about 40K vehicles/month in the U.S. The market is no longer supply constrained. How do you expect Tesla to get to 400K per month if not by price?

 

[2daMoon]

Yeah, that's true if none of the Mexican made vehicles/batteries are sold in the US. We'll have to see if that winds up being the case.

Wasn't it clearly stated at Investor Day how Monterrey will NOT be producing for export to the USA and WOULD be producing for developing new markets in Latin American and other countries?

 

[unk45]

It was dumb to say there was 0 market potential for EVs in the developed world 15 years ago, but ok many did.

To now say that there is 0 market potential for EVs in South America is beyond dumb. That means 0% pattern recognition and 100% recency bias.

Glad we got this reminder to not take somebody's investment advice just because the have a big social media following. Market analysis and audience building are different skills.

No they’re correct./s My BEv and those of three others on my block, a Taycan just delivered this week for example. After all I must not live in Brazil.OMG, just chalked my address. It’s in Brazil./s. Those who glance at data and say no market might check helicopters:

The Capital of São Paulo has the largest fleet of helicopters in the world - BisAviation Group

Did you know that the giant capital of São Paulo is also the champion in helicopter fleet in the world? Read more

bisaviation.com.br

There is a helipad just below my house in Rio busy every day.
.
Helicopters are not cars but helicopter owners have multiple cars and those SP operations are private. Police, military and government are additional.

These points are Brazil-specific but they are common world wide.

Just as Model S attracted many people who had never owned an expensive car, somyears earlier the Bentley Continental grew the >$100,000 car market by more than 100%.

Many people here, not just Troy, do not understand how a compelling product all by itself can transform markets that previously were thought to be tiny.

Examples: I name some but give no sources. Just search and discover the magic of compelling product:
Cessna Citation,
Apple Watch,
Lexus,
Robinson helicopter.
Three products, many more examples available.

The naysayers haven’t a clue what magic happens with compelling product. And price does play a role, just not the one imagined…

 

[2daMoon]

Well, regular steel would probably need painting, yes. A wrap as a factory option might make sense for something made from aluminum or stainless steel- though I think wraps might be too labor intensive. Maybe that could be automated. I guess I missed the part in the presentation suggesting no paint? I've only watched the first hour (half alert) and when Elon came back out for the Optimus demo so far.

The "no paint" is an assumption based on a conversation with Tom Zhu after the event, who replied with "paint is expensive" when being queried about the Gen 3 Monterrey vehicle.