Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Usain]

Another underappreciated nuggy from ID2023: Neural net training to increase by an order of magnitude this year and maybe next.

Has anyone done a transcript of ID2023?

What exactly was said about..

Neural net training to increase by an order of magnitude this year and maybe next.

That is indeed an interesting nugget and it's exactly what we are all hoping for. But we need more details!

 

[SmokyPeat]

I love Maine. I ordered a steak sandwich for lunch there once at a road-side diner. Best pair of boots I ever owned (lasted for years).

Cheers!

Well done! I'm wearing some Filet Bullwinkle boots right now. My beagle thinks they're delicious!

 

[FireMedic]

Wondering how you've managed to make supercharging work conveniently with racks in the way. Seems to me to be incompatible with ease of use for road trips (except in a few locations). But maybe I'm missing something.

Seems tesla had this in mind I suppose. It’s never been a problem for us; it’s only my trailer that requires a pull through station. I also forgot to mention that the rear hatch still works with moto/bike/ski racks fully loaded as it lifts straight up unlike many vehicles where the rear hatch opens into objects loaded onto a hitch rack.

 

[petit_bateau]

The problem with the EU battery production grant was that it was contingient upon any supported project being "the first industrial instantiation" of the battery production technology. That means that Tesla would have needed to build 4680s in Berlin BEFORE building them at the mother ship, Giga Texas. Yeah, not gonna happen. Elon told the EU-crats to 'keep ur measly €1.1B, we'll make our own arrangement, fu very much'. So they'll be eating cold noodles in Berlin for some time.

Tesla decides against state aid for German battery plant as Musk opposes subsidies | Reuters | Aug 15, 2022

They had to decline the funding, and now do not qualify. The reason: because it required the first production of that battery technology be performed in Germany, and because of permitting/building delays Tesla ended up making the production 4680s in the US first.

Thanks.

===============

Somehow I don't think that China CCP Inc will allow >50% LFP export without increased local vehicle assembly for much longer.

China CCP Inc is very keen to keep the extra added value onshored.

Therefore pretty soon Tesla Shangai expansion needs to commence. Maybe H2 2023. Most likely on 2/Z.

Pretty soon Berlin 4680 self-production needs to commence, as China LFP tapers. So they are going to have to free up some 4680 equipment.

(My guess is that they do beta-production of the 2/Z in Austin; first 2/Z mass production in Monterrey; and second 2/Z mass production in the Shanghai expansion)

========

Can anyone please remind me of the takt times that were given for the various factories ? Were they line-specific takts, or averaged ?

 

[aronth5]

That's probably because the goal for 2025 is 4m cars, not 5m. Have you even done the exponential growth projection?

Some but certainly no expert. That aside what is your estimate for the number of cars Tesla will build in 2030? If 4m cars are reached by 2025 do you expect Tesla to increase that by another 16m in the next 5 years?

 

[unk45]

Truth is usually considered good in my book.

You yourself said there is a market for 4 million vehicles a year. If Tesla takes 20% market share, that’s 800,000 vehicles a year. Just 10% share is 400,000 and with an affordable electric car, that is highly possible.

But it’s not going to be half a million for some time. Lots of demand in Mexico and Central America first. Very possible they export to Canada as well. Most likely Tesla starts importing small numbers of cars first. They have to establish service centers and a Supercharger network to get the ball rolling.

Central America markets are tiny. They’ll go to Mercosur where the tax advantages will be material.

 

[wipster]

From the Gigafactory thread:

Paul Fosse was more than a bit prescient when he wrote this FIVE years ago:

Why Giga Mexico Offers Tesla Advantages That Giga Texas Can't Match

Recently, we reported that Elon asked twitter if Giga Texas (a Tesla gigafactory in Texas) made sense. With Tesla's aggressive global goals to expand auto production an order of magnitude within 5 years, I added to the discussion that Giga Mexico might be worth considering, since they need to...

cleantechnica.com

 

[electracity]

Thanks.

===============

Somehow I don't think that China CCP Inc will allow >50% LFP export without increased local vehicle assembly for much longer.

China CCP Inc is very keen to keep the extra added value onshored.

Therefore pretty soon Tesla Shangai expansion needs to commence. Maybe H2 2023. Most likely on 2/Z.

Pretty soon Berlin 4680 self-production needs to commence, as China LFP tapers. So they are going to have to free up some 4680 equipment.

(My guess is that they do beta-production of the 2/Z in Austin; first 2/Z mass production in Monterrey; and second 2/Z mass production in the Shanghai expansion)

========

Can anyone please remind me of the takt times that were given for the various factories ? Were they line-specific takts, or averaged ?

I though the Berlin 4680 equipment was being moved to the U.S.?

 

[jkirkwood001]

There's too much really. The background looks fake. The shadows look fake. The cord unplug and drill dismount look fake. The part that looks most real to me is the second or three where the shoulder joint is being fastened. I will say that all of my viewing is on a smartphone- so that's my excuse if I'm wrong.

Can you please take this offline? We get it - you don't believe we saw IRL footage. None of us knows for sure, so point made. Please stop arguing. And everyone else please stop asking @SmokyPeat to prove what none of us can anyway. I know it's the weekend, but this thread is OT and gone on too long.

Thanks.

 

[unk45]

It only works for American  buyers. Of which there are none outside the USA

It also applies to US Government employees abroad, in numbers mostly military. Typically employees buy in US and cars shipped with them. They also often are entitled to buy duty free vehicles abroad, which probably produce quite a few Tesla sales already. The last I knew it was not easy to track those sales.

 

[heltok]

If anyone is interesting in the competition of Optimus, here is a nice post:

Here is a channel with one of the companies robot doing lots of tasks:

https://www.youtube.com/@sanctuaryai/videos

EDIT: it's teleoperated. thanks for correcting this.

 

[Stormy24]

EXCLUSIVE: Experiencing "Tesla speed" at Shanghai gigafactory

EXCLUSIVE: How fast do Tesla models roll off the production line at its Shanghai gigafactoryï¼Join Xinhua's Zhou Rui to experience the "Tesla speed" at the U....

www.youtube.com

Max speed, full capacity

 

[unk45]

The wealthy aren't buying a cheap Tesla. The subject at hand is south america absorbing the output of the new factory.

Tesla is lying about the target market to not Osborne the 3/Y. The 3 is already manufactured in surplus even with the $7500 tax credit.

The really newly wealthy have multiple vehicles, several expensive ones and usually a few less expensive ones for utility. Middle income countries do not have rich country purchase patterns.
truly, this is difficult to accept for most people from rich countries.

Hint: check Miami-Dade county sales of vehicles above $100,000 then compare with % of population able to afford them. Real estate records make another clue, just check cash sales percentages.

Nobody in Miami would underestimate South American market potential.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Edit: and further, it has been revealed that the Swedes are basing their claims about the Optimus video being determined upon a detailed and exhaustive examination of the presentation... on a cell phone. Will this be an upcoming SNL skit?

I'm not a member of the Swedish forum. Feel free to join if you'd like to vote in the poll. I'm sure that could sway the reality or unreality of the video.

 

[bkp_duke]

AEB crash test compilation

https://twitter.com/x/status/1575873017808551937

The competition is not only coming, they’re not even stopping

/s

Honest question - how many of those systems run on Dan O'Dowd's Greenhills Software?

Aren't they the major producer for AEB software?

 

[unk45]

Would a Taycan owner even know you need a 460 dollar option to get a faster charging rate? Why are OEMs making things so difficult? Guess this is why they call Tesla the apple of the world. "It just works".

I think they know. Porsche owners generally know that the base price is really ‘stripped’. Some quite basic things are options. It is not unusual to have fully equipped MSRP at 60-70% above base. Most brands don’t do that anymore.

 

[unk45]

is this rumor or buyout by Tesla is already in process?

Still rumor. It has not yet happened. Still possible.

 

[unk45]

This much is true. I appreciate @unk45 ’s reminders for those of us in the USA to look beyond our national borders but this is the economic reality.

All of Latin America combined, including Mexico itself, buys a bit less than 6 million new light-duty vehicles per year.

For comparison, the USA and Canada combined for 15 million last year, and that’s in a down year for sales volume. Mexico buys as many new cars as Canada despite having more than triple the population.

Latin America mostly imports used vehicles from wealthier markets. The continued economic growth in Latin America and the improved overall affordability of low-cost Teslas will open up new opportunities for buyers to purchase new cars, but the market still isn’t very large relative to the scale of Tesla’s ambitions for Giga Mexico.

The focus on markets in USA/Canada, Western Europe, China, Japan, and Australia/NZ is justified because this is where the vast majority of new cars are sold.

FWIW, apart from Paraguay and some Central America, the rest do not import used cars in any significant numbers. As for sales volumes you’re looking at the last three years of depressed sales due to Covid19 and temporary market depression. Brazil alone produced almost three million cars in 2012, only 2.4 million in 2022. The numbers are highly variable, but Mercosur alone has high pent-up demand.

Of course your post reflects conventional wisdom.
Giga Mexico obviously will supply both North and South America, a bit elsewhere and certainly parts and other things such as Superchargers and other things.

All of this is speculation until we have solid Tesla information.

 

[scaesare]

The wealthy aren't buying a cheap Tesla. The subject at hand is south america absorbing the output of the new factory.

Tesla is lying about the target market to not Osborne the 3/Y. The 3 is already manufactured in surplus even with the $7500 tax credit.

Lying?

The #1 selling vehicle in Latin America is the Toyota HiLux. They seem to start at $35K

Admittedly, this is with all of 3 minutes of research, but it doesn't seem far-fetched to me.

 

[scaesare]

Just from experience the more space between backseat kids equals the less I have to turn around and say "knock it off, or do I have to pull over?"

Not to belabor the point (too late? ), but wouldn't that then also exclude the 5-seater X?