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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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One possibility is that the front axle has a stronger lever arm on controlling against jacknife than having more discreet control over a rear axle? I am not a tractor-trailer dynamacist.

That change seems extremely sus...
Joints on front axle that has the least load, minimal packaging space, extra differentials. If true, I'll be interested in the first principle basis.
Also a major change to put into production since delivery event in December.
 
Fancy that... ornamental patent awarded. Not sure if it's been disclosed anywhere, but my theory is they'll put a sensor in the hub so that when the tire hits a pot hole or a rock, the mating tire tabs would shift the hubcap temporarily. This would be the earliest signal of the impact, much earlier than sensing the shocks compressing for example. So high-speed dynamic air shocks could be possible. Maybe allow the tire to lift easier, kinda step over the rock... who knows.

 
Hello!

My name is Giovanni from Tesla.
In the past you've had an order with us.
With prices dropped, and inventory available.
Were you interested in taking delivery of a new Model S/X vehicle?
I look forward to your response.


Lol 😆... I just received this text from a Tesla rep.
(I removed his last name as a courtesy)

Ok, which one of you told Tesla to text me ??? @wipster ... @scaesare ...????

Love it!
There's been evidence of Tesla monitoring this forum over the years... I had a rep contact me regarding annissue I posed here some years ago..
 
Couldn't resist. Max Pain at 195 still.

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I know this is way off topic for trading hours. But I just could not resist…

I left the Pickleball courts, and wouldn’t you know it; there’s an R1S parked next to me. I’m happy to confirm that the model X is objectively better looking 🤣!
This is timely because I saw my first one in the real world this morning in Concord. It looked a lot more like a Bronco than I care for. The R1T looks better.
 
As we think of Tesla's nest moves we all seem to think of cars, pickups and Semi.
As Tesla expands around the world it is useful, perhaps, to see how the BYD process works, closely analogous to how many Chinese firms work.

Just one example, here is their timeline in Brazil, very much the same elsewhere:
Capsule:
First, they invariably build busses or trucks, so they can support infrastructure in charging and service on a route-specific basis and demonstrate BEV advantages;
Second, or 1A, they supply taxi and other commercial vehicles, still with support attached;
Third, they build battery factories and assembly plants;
Fourth, they begin to sell cars and negotiate to build auto plants.

That model is far different than is Tesla, obviously. It is also very patient and long term.
BYD, Chery, JAC, CATL, State Grid and more all move in similar manner, with State Grid particularly important is establishing infrastructure.

Tesla has fairly minimal US support in any strategic way, except in China, perhaps. Tesla also chose top down, not bottom up, primarily because they did not have strategic support. When we, as Tesla investors view these others we tend to see them as inferior mirrors of Tesla. That is a myopic view, but understandable.

Tesla has all the advantages and strengths we document so well. Tesla also has no real experience with utility vehicles, which has not been an impediment.

Tesla has had success with public utility services from Grid Services to Stationary Storage, but has thus far sacrificed that market to better needs for cars. Perhaps the single most effective product for Tesla has been Supercharger, but most fo us see that as a service to encourage Tesla sales and support.

If going back to the BYD case fro a moment, and the other Chinese examples, we can see the one thing they've not done is blanket their nascent market with chargers; not needed since they begin with commercial route-based markets...

And we then see the Tesla advantage in structural rather than only production excellence and technology. It si Tesla that built Superchargers to allow people to drive their cars to the Mount Everest base camp. Some of us probably remember those videos. That accomplishment galvanized substantial favorable image. Still, most of us really miss the huge marketing benefit of Superchargers.

We think of market potential around the world and remark a given place has no opportunity because of the paucity of charging. True. Then think of California in 2014. Even more than the cars themselves, wonderful though they are, the Supercharger network sells Tesla where it seems to be too expensive and impractical.

Rather than write off any given markets it might be better to assess how much Supercharger capacity would be needed to service the market, how much stationary storage and solar capacity could defray the operating cost, and only then conclude viability. At that point government incentives and impediments become relevant, remembering that the Chinese tactics of beginning with labor intense and high visible benefits end out being productive.

FWIW, BYD has had a letter of intent to buy the Ford 300,000 unit capacity plant in Bahia fro nearly a year. The new Brazilian President is pushing hard for that one. We still do not have any official word on Tesla raw materials sourcing, but that is also high on Lula's list of desires.

When we link support infrastructure, industrial investment (in anything) and good employment prospects many otherwise less interesting markets suddenly become attractive.

These subjects are very familiar to Tom Zhu, Elon Musk and several others. They'll not always tell su everything. Just look at the two covered vehicles on Investor Day, then think how many of us decided they were one thing or another without any information. What if everyone might be correct? What if it is a highly versatile 'platform', Tesla-style rather than, say, VW-style?

Is Tesla learning from the China examples? Morocco Superchargers but no sales; is that one only a tourist play?

Something that has been rattling around in my head since investor day is what tesla’s next generation “unboxed” production process might mean for the potential for smaller assembly locations around the world where some level of localized production would make sense due to logistics, import taxes and/or production incentives/subsidies, free trade treaties etc.

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For instance some markets that are large but low income (Brazil/Indonesia), or resource rich but smaller populations (Australia) or a mix of both (Argentina/Chile) where a full size gigafactory might be seen as inappropriate, but where some level of component production makes sense, either for export or for serving the local market with a lower cost structure.

For instance looking at the unboxed process gives you 3 major pieces of the car: The Front and Rear assemblies containing the gigacastings and the motors, and the structural battery pack (Duh). The rest of the components being relatively simple stamped metal parts.

So for example could we eventually see some assembly factories in lithium rich countries where the structural packs could be manufactured locally, while the front and rear assemblies, along with stamped parts, are imported from Mexico or China? How much cheaper would a factory be if you didn’t need to have Gigacastings, stamping presses or paint shops to start initial production? In return, complete structural packs could be exported to other Gigafactories and/or complete cars to other markets, and over time more production of parts could be localized (Seats, wheels, glass etc), and eventually if the market proves itself it could be expanded to a full size gigafactory.

I have no idea if any of the above makes financial sense for Tesla right now, but thought it might be possible in some circumstances down the road thanks to the new production process.
 
Fancy that... ornamental patent awarded. Not sure if it's been disclosed anywhere, but my theory is they'll put a sensor in the hub so that when the tire hits a pot hole or a rock, the mating tire tabs would shift the hubcap temporarily. This would be the earliest signal of the impact, much earlier than sensing the shocks compressing for example. So high-speed dynamic air shocks could be possible. Maybe allow the tire to lift easier, kinda step over the rock... who knows.
So kinda acting like the Bose system did years ago, eh? Too bad that wasn't implemented back then, it looked pretty slick. If Tesla could accomplish something like that, but using that sensor, that would be much less expensive.

Edit: Here's a great description of the Bose system that apparently was purchased in 2018, although I haven't seen it implemented on a production auto yet. Nice vehicle they chose to show their version off on though!
 
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Rivian now trading only a small premium above its cash balance amount. Wouldn’t be surprised if they haven’t received some certain cash rich visitors from Cupertino to kick the tires…
Problem is that stat won’t hold true with their burn rate lol.

When Gali said he’d be interested in Rivian at a $10 billion valuation it’s looking pretty spot on hahaha. If it actually gets to mid single digits it’s worth a flyer just on pure acquisition speculation, but id rather put money on tesla where there’s a 99% certainty of longterm financial gain