Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Bet TSLA]

Agreed.

Interestingly the post you replied to is gone... was that his response to my asking what evidence there was that Elon was stating things that weren't true regarding the Model 3 ramp financial strain?

Yes, it was. For some reason some mod decided that due to mentioning the bird company my post had to be deleted, regardless of relevance. But it's all there in that response, so I won't repost.

In any case, the possibility that Tesla could have gone bankrupt around that time was exactly zero, because they could have raised lots of money easily. Elon would just possibly have had to give up some control.

 

[InTheMiddle]

Then why are they hanging around here complaining that Tesla is over-valued and the cars are crap?

Just a thought: This thread is titled “Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable“ - and many here have stressed over the years that “investor” should mean “shareholder”. Perhaps the terms of this site and the title of this thread should be updated to clearly state that a prerequisite of posting in this particular thread is ownership of at least one share of TSLA common stock? Certainly many would also own options on TSLA, in addition to shares, but a contributor here should also directly own at least one share, not just options. Obviously, a bad actor could own one share but also be short many more shares (directly or indirectly via options), but frankly those bad actors would likely simply ignore the rule or lie about owning at least one share. To be clear, this suggestion is not advocating for a validation method to be implemented, just being a TSLA investor being technically required via the site terms and conditions for this one thread, with the poster banned if it becomes clear they were violating this.

Everyone should be able to read this thread. Certainly many who are considering owning the shares but haven’t yet purchased any would still find value in this thread just from reading it. But if you want a turn at the mic to post, whether to ask a question before buying more shares or to chime in with an opinion or thought, the expectation should be that you’ve bought and are holding at least one share. Thoughts?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

New banking standards for small banks coming in 3...2...1...

SVB f**ked up by buying long term bonds with short term deposits. What did they expect to happen? You don't buy long term assets that can't easily be liquidated with short term deposits, unless you want to go insolvent when people start withdrawing.

I’m all for calling out SVB and other banks that didn’t hedge. But the Fed deserves equal blame as @dl003 said for the past 5 years. They massively F’d up monetary policy in both ways and to extremes. The ignored and continue to ignore forward looking data when it comes to inflation

 

[Cosmacelf]

SVB UK sold for ~$1. No joke.

https://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/news/2023/03/13/silicon-valley-bank-uk-sold-just-over-1.html

Ha! Loser! You’re off by 21%!!

It was £1.

 

[Cosmacelf]

In any case, the possibility that Tesla could have gone bankrupt around that time was exactly zero, because they could have raised lots of money easily. Elon would just possibly have had to give up some control.

In an earlier post, I mentioned that raising $$ would not have saved Tesla from bankruptcy during the Model 3 ramp. Unlike certain other automaker CEOs, Elon knows that selling a car at negative gross margins is a fast track to bankruptcy. Tesla would indeed have gone bankrupt if they hadn’t figured out how to manufacture the Model 3 profitably. They hadn’t figured it out during manufacturing hell, ergo, they were indeed headed for bankruptcy.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Tesla takes gold and bronze in their class…

https://twitter.com/x/status/1635475724248440834

 

[bkp_duke]

Ha! Loser! You’re off by 21%!!

It was £1.

Pretty sure the "~" covered that.

 

[Bet TSLA]

In an earlier post, I mentioned that raising $$ would not have saved Tesla from bankruptcy during the Model 3 ramp. Unlike certain other automaker CEOs, Elon knows that selling a car at negative gross margins is a fast track to bankruptcy. Tesla would indeed have gone bankrupt if they hadn’t figured out how to manufacture the Model 3 profitably. They hadn’t figured it out during manufacturing hell, ergo, they were indeed headed for bankruptcy.

No. He said bankruptcy within a few weeks, which was pure hyperbole. In any case, there was never any question that they would figure out something, just how long it would take. Would it be in time to avoid running out of money? Obviously not.

This whole sub-discussion came up because I wrote that Elon has demonstrated that he's not to be trusted when talking about his companies' finances. I'd say it's obvious at this point, with many tweets and such in evidence.

But I am inclined to trust what he says on earnings calls, as he's much more aware of a higher standard of accountability at those times.

 

[jamaatta]

Wow

https://twitter.com/x/status/1635386413771378688

View attachment 917241

Let's wait and see how this develops. BYD denies problems.

BYD claims that Tesla stopped cooperating with BYD is false information - TechGoing

South Korea’s Economic Daily stated that Tesla has suspended its battery cooperation with BYD. In response to the foreign media’s report that “Tesla stopped its cooperation with BYD on batteries”, BYD’s latest response to the Financial Associated Press stated that it was “false information...

www.techgoing.com

 

[MC3OZ]

No. He said bankruptcy within a few weeks, which was pure hyperbole. In any case, there was never any question that they would figure out something, just how long it would take. Would it be in time to avoid running out of money? Obviously not.

This whole sub-discussion came up because I wrote that Elon has demonstrated that he's not to be trusted when talking about his companies' finances. I'd say it's obvious at this point, with many tweets and such in evidence.

But I am inclined to trust what he says on earnings calls, as he's much more aware of a higher standard of accountability at those times.

The more we find out about "Production Hell", the worse it seems.

As mentioned a few times, many have "mental scar tissue" from that era.

If Tesla could not sort out the engineering side of things, and built Model 3s for a price at which they could sell them for good margins, life would have got very difficult.

While Elon probably did overestimate how bad the financial side of things was, it seems that the engineering side was dire.

And Zac mentioned that "Back Office Hell" wasn't much better.

It is no surprise that other carmakers are struggling to clear this bar, and equally no surprise that the lessons learned are burned deep into the psyche of Tesla.

I don't think a big pile of money can always solve bad engineering, negative margins, and low production volumes in time.

At the time, Tesla had much higher debt levels than they do today.

So they might have felt under siege,

 

[AmpManMYP]

Let's wait and see how this develops. BYD denies problems.

BYD claims that Tesla stopped cooperating with BYD is false information - TechGoing

South Korea’s Economic Daily stated that Tesla has suspended its battery cooperation with BYD. In response to the foreign media’s report that “Tesla stopped its cooperation with BYD on batteries”, BYD’s latest response to the Financial Associated Press stated that it was “false information...

www.techgoing.com

Are any Teslas sold in the US made with BYD batteries?

 

[Ogre]

Musk was very quick to shut that rumor down. BYD/ Tesla relationships are fine. Another shocking mis-report from Mis-Reuporters

https://twitter.com/x/status/1635505099912138752

 

[Ocelot]

Just a thought: This thread is titled “Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable“ - and many here have stressed over the years that “investor” should mean “shareholder”. Perhaps the terms of this site and the title of this thread should be updated to clearly state that a prerequisite of posting in this particular thread is ownership of at least one share of TSLA common stock? Certainly many would also own options on TSLA, in addition to shares, but a contributor here should also directly own at least one share, not just options. Obviously, a bad actor could own one share but also be short many more shares (directly or indirectly via options), but frankly those bad actors would likely simply ignore the rule or lie about owning at least one share. To be clear, this suggestion is not advocating for a validation method to be implemented, just being a TSLA investor being technically required via the site terms and conditions for this one thread, with the poster banned if it becomes clear they were violating this.

Everyone should be able to read this thread. Certainly many who are considering owning the shares but haven’t yet purchased any would still find value in this thread just from reading it. But if you want a turn at the mic to post, whether to ask a question before buying more shares or to chime in with an opinion or thought, the expectation should be that you’ve bought and are holding at least one share. Thoughts?

Already this thread is heavily biased due to fact this is a Tesla forum. Bears are labelled, often ridiculed and eventually leave. Discouraging people who do not hold Tesla shares from taking their turn at the mic, only would amplify the echo chamber. I rather Like hearing from people who feel Tesla is not a good investment so as to constantly try to reevaluate my own thoughts, and actually feel we should be doing the opposite, encouraging them to speak more so we can have as balanced a viewpoint as possible.

Sometimes you pick things up from other forum threads. For example Inread this thread last night, and thought, wow, very BMW biased. That’s the exact thought they would have reading threads here, but replace BMW with Tesla.

Tesla Price Cuts - Will BMW Offer Lower Prices or...

BMW’s margins have never been higher, since covid and the Ukrainian war, they really did very well… Yes - on group level, 2021 was strong and 2022 seems to be pretty good as well. But I doubt the i4 is a high-margin car given its low relative price, all delays and call-backs due to software...

www.i4talk.com

 

[Thekiwi]

 

[Singuy]

View attachment 917378

HELL YEA!

 

[FSDtester#1]

According to CME 26.2 % chance now of Fed rate pause....and 74.5% chance of .25% rate hike.

CME FedWatch Tool - CME Group

Count down to the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate hike with the CME FedWatch Tool, based on the Fed Funds target rate. View the tool.

www.cmegroup.com

 

[Singuy]

Dark pool turned green today. Yay?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1635431811357589507

 

[Artful Dodger]

if Credit Suisse is indeed about to collapse, could still force the Feds hand into a pivot.

Hedgies pwn the Banks:

Credit Suisse Chairman Waives $1.6 Million Award, Takes Pay Cut | Bloomberg News (36 mins ago)

 

[Artful Dodger]

It's in Tesla's best interest to be open with these numbers - though it looks like they haven't posted fire data since 2021.

Tesla resumed posting safety numbers some time ago. This was just the release of the latest Quarterly data. More discussion here:

Tesla Q4 2022 Vehicle Safety Report - one crash for every 4.85 million miles with Autopilot engaged | DriveTeslaCanada,ca blog

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1635519541466857473