Why do these Factset estimates never come out before the numbers are released? It’s like the Factset methodology is to wait until they come out and then add 10k.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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Why do these Factset estimates never come out before the numbers are released? It’s like the Factset methodology is to wait until they come out and then add 10k.
Paracelsus
Active Member
Hmmmm….
On March 14th Troy estimated 413k deliveries- and Tesla beat that
On March 18th Troy revised his estimate to 418k deliveries - and Tesla beat that
On March 31st Troy revised his estimate once again to 426k - a number that would be higher than Tesla’s actual deliveries…and CNBC was already prepared with a “It’s a Miss!” article that was in-part based on Troy’s last minute ‘revision’.
Odd….
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At this point, production/deliveries info is rather meaningless unless they come in way higher of way lower than expectations. Where TSLA goes for the next 2 quarters is all dependent on COGS and margins.
Energy will be key for investors but likely ignores by wall st for as long as possible
Looks like production in Q1 was only up about 1,100 vs. Q4 '22.
Xepa777
Banned
How you know numbers are good: TMCers going “we’re going to be rich! I retire!!!!” And 30+ pages on this thread in a day
How you know the numbers are bad: TMCers rationalize why the numbers are good
How you know the numbers are bad: TMCers rationalize why the numbers are good
Even then, most of value is in the cells. Additionally, "battery" as used in the IRA really means module, not pack.
How you know numbers are good: TMCers going “we’re going to be rich! I retire!!!!” And 30+ pages on this thread in a day
How you know the numbers are bad: TMCers rationalize why the numbers are good
is anyone doing quarterly report sentiment analysis on the posts on this thread?If I had to guess, Chinese production was down, Europe and US up. Also I think they went all out on Q4 to hit their target, whereas this quarter seemed business as usual. Now that Berlin is 5K+ the numbers will start to ramp quickly.
Tesla needs to drop S+X price 10K+ more in the US to get line utilization higher.
There were 2 less days in the quarter and Chinese New Year.
And at some point the high water mark 50% growth goal becomes less and less likely.
shrspeedblade
Rideshare Monkey
I'm starting to have a hunch that when one looks over Tesla production/delivery numbers in 2030, they will have "missed" all the way to 20 million vehicles over that past 18 years!
But Shanghai also had downtime at the end of Q4 as well. Overall considering Berlin and Austin are supposed to be going through big production ramps, to see so little production growth QoQ is not great.
The flip side to that though is Shanghai at least so far, seems to be full production for all of Q2 and the China market seems to be recovering some. Production from Q1 to Q2 should see a major ramp up. If not, there’s concerns
If they do that and put actual HW4 in it instead of this 3.5 nonsense I’ll have to take a hard look at a Plaid S again.
Great numbers in my eyes. Q1 is always the week quarter. To get a record on it is astonishing. Let’s not forget how incredible this team is, every quarter, again and again.
jkirkwood001
Active Member
I'm more visual as many of you know - this helps me put the numbers into perspective:
(Edit: thx @mongo for the correction)
So looked at this way, yes it's a record quarter, but no, not better than previous Q1s. In fact, from a GR perspective, it's the worst YoY increase since 2020 Q2 (the start of the pandemic):
But I look forward to faster growth as Berlin and Austin keep ramping (ever the optimist!).
(Edit: thx @mongo for the correction)
So looked at this way, yes it's a record quarter, but no, not better than previous Q1s. In fact, from a GR perspective, it's the worst YoY increase since 2020 Q2 (the start of the pandemic):
But I look forward to faster growth as Berlin and Austin keep ramping (ever the optimist!).
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They were selling inventory s/x with up to 30k€ discounts here last week.. also I know many people who canceled their orders in Europe, orders made 2-3 years ago.
Lot of uncertainty now, interest on car financing is about 5,5%, then putlers war.. so economic situation is not good.
If Tesla had brought s/x plaid to europe 2 years ago, they would have sold like hotcakes. Now, not so much, not so simple to buy a 150k car in this turmoil
Lot of uncertainty now, interest on car financing is about 5,5%, then putlers war.. so economic situation is not good.
If Tesla had brought s/x plaid to europe 2 years ago, they would have sold like hotcakes. Now, not so much, not so simple to buy a 150k car in this turmoil
44% YoY production 36% YoY deliveries against the headwinds of wave unrolling and the reduced shutdown in Shanghai in 2022
Your Q1 2022 data is wrong
10-Q:
Yeah, I'm hoping for 2M+ production this year as much as anyone, but I won't be disappointed if it's 1.8-1.9M.
jkirkwood001
Active Member
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